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Notes on breeding Superior Racehorses

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Freefall Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Jun 2025 at 11:31am
Not ATM BP.

Last one with Jamie was Unholstered (Pierro out of a Choisir mare) trained by Joe Pride. Everyone was bullish about him as a 2yo. He did a suspensory and didn’t come up again despite the long recovery. Joe recommended moving him on.

Sold online for about $1,500 and is now running in Vic picnic meets. Spelling now - 25 weeks.




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brave ponies anything 1 (savabeel is 1-o) to 13 (O'Reilly is 13b) is one to follow!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Jun 2025 at 2:58pm
Probably why so many of the Grunt progeny are from Savabeel mares.
It takes a wise man a lifetime to grow a tree and a fool five minutes to kill one.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Jun 2025 at 7:06pm
Where to put this?  Ok here will do.

Four of the six winners and placings in the Qld Oaks and Derby today:

Yuo Wahng: by So You Think by High Chaparral
Maison Louis: by Super Seth by Dundeel by High Chaparral
King of Thunder: by Tivaci by High Chaparral
Chase Your Dreams: by Contributor by High Chaparral


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote brave_ponies Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Jun 2025 at 9:44pm
Wow! That’s crazy good stats! Thanks SC.

I know a lot of us here are High Chap fans - and clearly good judges Big smile
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Longish but interesting

Building Excellence Through Commitment and Care

The preparation of racehorses is an intricate process that requires unwavering patience and an investment of time to develop these majestic animals into champions. Unlike other sports where talent and skill can be honed quickly, equestrian racing demands a methodical approach, where the physical and mental growth of the horse is nurtured with care and precision. Patience and time serve as the foundation for success in this competitive realm, balancing the need for discipline and training with the respect for the horse’s natural development.

The Role of Patience in Racehorse Training

Patience is the cornerstone of racehorse training. It involves understanding the unique nature of each horse, accommodating its quirks and temperament, and allowing it to progress at its own pace. Horses, much like humans, have individual personalities, and imposing a rigid training schedule without regard for their individuality can lead to not only diminished performance but also injury or psychological stress.

Developing Trust and Communication

The bond between a trainer and a racehorse is built on trust. This trust cannot be rushed; it evolves over time as the horse becomes familiar with the trainer’s voice, touch, and commands. A patient trainer invests time in building this rapport, ensuring the horse feels safe and secure in their presence. Trust is vital for the horse to respond effectively in high-pressure situations, such as in the starting gate or during a race.

Physical Conditioning with Care

Racehorses require rigorous physical conditioning, but this must be done progressively. A patient approach recognizes the importance of respecting the horse’s physical limits, gradually increasing workload to build endurance, speed, and strength. Overtraining can lead to fatigue and injuries that may jeopardize the horse’s career. Patience ensures that the horse’s health remains paramount throughout its preparation.

The Significance of Time

Time is an equally critical factor in racehorse preparation. Unlike machinery that can be fine-tuned in a matter of hours, the development of a racehorse spans months, even years. From a foal to the peak of their racing career, racehorses undergo a series of developmental stages that cannot be expedited without risking adverse outcomes.

The Natural Growth Process

A horse’s musculoskeletal system requires sufficient time to mature before it can endure the demands of racing. Training a horse too early can lead to long-term health issues, undermining its potential for a successful career. Trainers must respect the natural timeline of growth, allowing young horses to develop strength and resilience.

Skill Acquisition and Refinement

Racehorses are not born knowing how to race; they must acquire and refine skills such as starting from the gate, pacing, and responding to jockey commands. This learning process takes time and repetition. Forcing a horse to adopt these skills quickly can result in confusion and resistance, whereas a gradual teaching approach ensures mastery and confidence.

Long-Term Success Over Short-Term Gains

In the world of competitive racing, the temptation to push for immediate results is ever-present. However, trainers who prioritize time and patience often produce horses that enjoy longer, more successful careers. By investing in the horse’s comprehensive development, rather than rushing to meet short-term goals, they lay the groundwork for sustainable achievement.

Balancing Patience and Time in Racehorse Preparation

While patience and time are individually significant, their true power lies in their synergy. It is one thing to wait for a horse to develop, but it is another to actively use the time to implement thoughtful strategies that maximize its potential. Trainers must strike a delicate balance between allowing a horse to progress naturally and ensuring that the time invested is productive.

Setting Realistic Goals

Realistic goals are essential to maintaining a balance between patience and time. Trainers must acknowledge the individual capabilities of each horse and tailor training programs accordingly. This not only prevents frustration and setbacks but also builds confidence in the horse as it achieves milestones.

Monitoring Progress

Throughout the preparation process, trainers must diligently monitor the horse’s progress. This involves assessing physical conditioning, behavioral changes, and skill acquisition. By tracking development, trainers can adjust their approach to ensure the horse is moving steadily towards readiness.

Maintaining Discipline

While patience involves flexibility, it also requires discipline. Trainers must remain committed to the long-term vision, resisting the urge to abandon careful preparation for quicker results. Discipline ensures that the time spent on training is meaningful and aligned with the horse’s best interests.

Examples from Champion Racehorses

The importance of patience and time is exemplified by the stories of legendary racehorses. Legends like Secretariat, Sea Biscuit, and Frankel were not overnight successes; their greatness was cultivated through years of dedicated training and care. These champions serve as reminders that excellence in horse racing is achieved through persistence, commitment, and an understanding of the value of time. The great Australian racehorse “
Takeover Target
Sired by Celtic Swing out of the unraced dam Shady Stream, Takeover Target was ruled out of racing for thirty months due to leg and joint problems. He did not make his debut until he was a four-year-old. He was unbeaten in all of his starts in 2004 and set a seven-race winning run following his debut on 23 April 2004 in a 1,200 metre maiden race at Queanbeyan Racecourse. These wins included victory in the listed Pacesetter Stakes at Gosford Racecourse, the listed Ramornie Handicap at Grafton Racecourse, and the Group 1 Salinger Stakes at Flemington Racecourse in October of that year. Rogan Josh was purchased for $13,000 by owner Wendy Green, after he didn't reach his reserve price at the yearling sales[2] and began his racing career in Western Australia. His first start was at Bunbury as a four-year-old, and after winning 4 of his first 5 starts he headed to Ascot where his final run for the campaign resulted in a fourth placing.

As a five-year-old, and now trained by Colin Webster, Rogan Josh worked through his classes in Perth recording another four wins before heading to the 1998 Pinjarra Cup. Over 2200 metres Rogan Josh passed the post a nose in front to win the Listed Pinjarra Cup and two weeks later recorded a neck win in the Group 3 Bunbury Cup.

Set for the Perth Carnival he was second in the Group 2 C B Cox Stakes at 2400 metres weight-for-age before finishing second to King of Saxony in the Group 2 Perth Cup at 3200 metres. Colin Webster had a strong belief that Rogan Josh was good enough to run in the Melbourne Cup because of his ability to run 3200 metres. After a brief three start autumn campaign which included a second in the 1999 Bunbury Cup (the race he won the year before), Rogan Josh was then transferred to Bart Cummings and a tilt at the 1999 Melbourne Cup. Cummings liked the fact that Rogan Josh was lightly raced even though he was now a seven-year-old.

When Melbourne Cup markets were first released in August 1999 he was a 250/1 chance. His first start for Bart was in the Aurie's Star Handicap - a 1200-metre sprint down the Flemington straight in which he finished 7th. His next start was the Feehan Stakes where he finished 10th, and a fortnight later he finished 7th in the JRA Cup. He then showed some form on Caulfield Guineas Day when ridden by Darren Gauci he won the Group 2 Herbert Power Stakes by two lengths. Ridden by Chris Munce, a week later, he led turning for home before being run down finishing fourth behind Sky Heights in the Caulfield Cup. After his run in the Caulfield Cup, it was obvious that Rogan Josh had staying ability, plus he already had form at 3200 metres with his second in the Perth Cup earlier in the year, and he would be a real threat in the Melbourne Cup - particularly with his weight of 50 kg - his odds shortened to 15/1. Suddenly everyone wanted to know more about Bart's Perth horse.

Once Rogan Josh was assured of a start in the Melbourne Cup, Bart Cummings entered him to run in the Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes on Victoria Derby as his final lead-up race. John Marshall was chosen to ride him and Rogan Josh caused an upset by winning the Mackinnon at odds of 16/1 and producing a career high Timeform rating of 115 and equaling the race record (2:00.3) which was set by Horlicks in the 1989 Mackinnon Stakes. After his Mackinnon win Rogan Josh became 6/1 second favourite for the Melbourne Cup and finished strongly to beat the Godolphin trained Central Park and win the Group 1 Melbourne Cup three days later. The win was Cummings's 11th Melbourne Cup. The Melbourne Cup field included multiple Group 1 winners Tie The Knot, Central Park and Caulfield Cup winner Sky Heights and future Melbourne Cup winner Brew. The race also included Second Coming who ran 7th however he would go in to run 3rd in the 2000 Melbourne Cup (won by Brew). Rogan Josh only had one more start in Australia: a 3rd in the Sandown Classic 11 days after the Melbourne Cup before finishing a brave fourth in the Hong Kong Vase at Sha Tin Racecourse (Group 1 2400m WFA) in December 1999, and it was in this race that he produced a career high Timeform rating of 119 for his effort.” wikipedia

 

Conclusion

Patience and time are indispensable in the preparation of racehorses. They form the backbone of a training philosophy that prioritizes the well-being and natural development of the horse while paving the way for competitive success. Trainers who embrace these principles not only enhance the horse’s performance but also contribute to its longevity and overall happiness. In the art and science of racehorse preparation, patience and time are not merely virtues—they are necessities that ensure the triumph of both horse and trainer.” PATIENCE is a virtue, possess it if you can. Seldom in a woman, never in a man." Bart Cummings, and “"Patience is the cheapest thing in racing but most people don't use it," 


change is simply a destination on a journey reached by taking the first step (i said that) lol

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Pedigree Theories and Selection Techniques

Nick Ratings

(or why nick ratings are the bane of my existence)Some examples of why nick ratings are misleading

It's important that people understand what a nick is, and the difference between a nick and a nick rating. Nicks are a fact, but nick ratings are a statistic, and we all know statistics can be very misleading. Unfortunately, ratings are what people want nowdays because it's easier to read a score and blindly accept it, than to reason out the intricate process of properly mating your mare. 

The word "nick" has become distorted in breeding jargon due to the proliferation of the ratings, so that many people have come to use it as a verb. "What stallions nick with my mare?" or "I want you to nick my mares." When I hear that, my skin crawls. The nick ratings have created this quick and dirty method of matching stallions and mares to the demise of well rounded matings. I don't think this is what the creators of either popular nick rating system intended, but that's what has happened. Nick ratings have done more to take down real mating analysis than anything I've ever seen. 

What is a nick? In my article "Nicks or Not," I explain that a nick is a real live genetic term describing a cross of two bloodlines that produces superior results a surprising amount of the time. It's not guaranteed, but it has a serious track record. The A.P. Indy/Mr. Prospector cross is a good modern example. Some of A.P. Indy's most important offspring are the result of this nick including Horse of the Year Mineshaft, and his good sire sons Pulpit and Malibu Moon, all sons of A.P. Indy out of mares sired by Mr. Prospector. That's a nick. It's rare, and it's very specific. 

A.P. Indy on a mare by Mr. Prospector represents a very specific pedigree alignment accounting for 75% of the same pedigree on paper. If the mare is not by Mr. Prospector, we're not talking about the same nick. Bernardini is by A.P. Indy and out of a mare by Quiet American. Quiet American, by Fappiano, by Mr. Prospector, is a male line grandson of Mr. Prospector. It's a similar cross, but technically, it's not the same nick, because Mr. Prospector's influence is diluted 2 generations further back. 

Since we know full siblings in actuality share only about 50% of their genes, theoretically, the chances of genetic similarity based on three-quarter relatives, relatives with 75% similar parentage, are half of that, or 37.5%.  A.P. Indy crossed with a mare by a son of Mr. Prospector reduces the influence of Mr. Prospector by even more, down to 62.5% on paper, or 31.25% in terms closer to probability. The further back the key ancestor is along the mare's male line, it's potential influence decreases dramatically every generation.

That's not to say some bloodlines don't work better together than others, because they certainly appear to, but to attribute the cross to the singular presence of the male line ancestor of the mare crossed with the subject stallion is extremely shaky science. The biggest flaw in the system is that nick ratings don't account for the whole of the sire's pedigree crossing with the whole of the mare's pedigree, including instances of the key successful ancestor in other areas of the mare's pedigree (like the sire of the second dam). 

Likewise, nick ratings don't account for the fact that some sires are more dominant than others, and, and some sires are more like their mothers than their fathers. Northern Dancer was a very dominant sire, and threw a lot of typical sons like Lyphard, Danzig, and The Minstrel, but his best son, Nijinsky II, was a very atypical son. Instead of the small, heavily muscled model, Nijinsky II was a tall, rangy individual built along staying lines. As a stallion, Nijinsky II did not throw a consistent physical type and his offsping varied greatly in aptitudes and ability from sprinters to milers to stayers. In the long term, Nijinsky II does not behave in pedigrees like his sire, Northern Dancer and nick ratings ignore that entirely. 

Mr. Prospector was a great sire of speed and class, but he did not kick out cookie-cutter versions of himself or his sire Raise a Native. In fact, many of his best runners throw back more to their dam's pedigrees in looks and aptitude, in particular, perhaps his greatest sire son, Fappiano, who was very atypical and has created his own dominant and easily recognizable branch of the Mr. Prospector sireline. They are usually tall, long backed horses with a lot of bone. This is the branch that hs produced more of the stayers descending from Mr. Prospector, including Victory Gallop and Unbridled. On the other hand, Forty Niner tended to get smallish, heavily muscled, handsome types like Distorted Humor. The two branches of Mr. Prospector's sireline are very different, and yet nick ratings treat them as interchangeable.

Don't fall into the trap and decide your matings based on a nick rating alone, good or bad. There are too many more important things to evaluate in mating your mare and all must be considered before you make your decision.

Copyright Anne Peters, 2012 

Example 1: Working at Three Chimneys, I took numerous calls from breeders wanting to breed their mare to Sky Mesa. An alarmingly high number of these calls were from breeders owning Storm Cat-line mares, because it was an "A" nick based on the cross of Pulpit and Storm Cat. Of course, the breeders were overlooking the fact that this is exactly the cross that produced Sky Mesa. A cross of Sky Mesa on a daughter of Storm Cat would be inbreeding 3x2 to Storm Cat, and Sky Mesa on a daughter of a son of Storm Cat would be inbreeding 3x3 to Storm Cat. Anyone who has laid eyes on Sky Mesa knows that he's a very large, thickset, heavily muscled horse on legs a little short for his mass. By inbreeding to Storm Cat, a very similarly built horse, you're adding more of the same, and the last thing you'd want to pile on this physical model is more of the same. I discouraged breeders from doing this, but the nick ratings were touting it as a great cross and some didn't want to hear my cautions. By ignoring the rest of the pedigree, the rating was pointing breeders down a potentially disastrous path. Even now, after Sky Mesa is a proven stallion in his own right, the cross of a Storm Cat-line mare with him generates an "A" nick rating, based on the Pulpit/Storm Cat cross. Shouldn't this rating be adjusted to show the results of the Sky Mesa/Storm Cat cross specifically? Those figures would give a clearer picture of the real value of the mating, since Sky Mesa himself has not proven to be a good cross with Storm Cat-line mares, and I think it's obvious why that would be.
Example 2: A client is excited that his mare, hypothetically crossed with a certain successful but extremely crooked son of Storm Cat, generated a nick rating of "A++" with a variant of 31.20 (which apparently is off the charts. I wouldn't know, because I don't pay attention to this sort of, er, stuff). His mare is by Speightstown (Gone West - Silken Cat by Storm Cat). He wanted my opinion.  I explained to him that the mating would also result in inbreeding 2x4 to Storm Cat, a horse who is notorious for passing on offset knees. Since the stallion in question is extremely offset, which is why he is commercial poison, inbreeding to the source of this major fault would not be a good idea. "Oh," he said, "I didn't think about the inbreeding." No, the nick ratings don't remind you to avoid potentially negative inbreeding in their algorithm.
Example 3:  Before he had runners, nick ratings proclaimed that Flower Alley, Distorted Humor's first and best son at stud, would be a good cross (an A nick) with Mr. Prospector-line mares. After all, hadn't Distorted Humor (by Forty Niner by Mr. Prospector) sired a Grade 1 winner from the cross named Flower Alley, out of a mare by Lycius by Mr. Prospector? Distorted Humor also had a Grade 2 winner, Sharp Humor, from another Mr. Prospector-line mare, by Woodman
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2015

A couple of months ago Byron Rogers of Performance Genetics forwarded a link to a recently published study on population genetics. A team of researchers in China and Australia generated statistics that suggest a mother’s influence may actually be more important than a father’s influence when it comes to racing ability. Is this study a fluke of statistical analysis or is there solid science behind it?

Fasig-Tipton

In the paper “Potential role of maternal lineage in the Thoroughbred breeding strategy,” published in Reproduction, Fertility and Development in May 2015, by Xiang Lin, et al., the racing ability of 675 Australian Thoroughbreds was categorized by average earnings per start as an indicator of quality of performance and ranked from highest to lowest. The top 30% of earners were put into the “Elite” group of performers and the remaining 70% into the “Poor” group. 

The runners were divided into four groups based on their parentage: Elite dam vs. Elite sire (EE), Elite dam vs. Poor sire (EP), Poor dam vs. Elite sire (PE), and Poor dam vs. Poor sire (PP).

The results indicated the best runners were from the EE group (Elite dam and sire), while the worst were from the PE group (Poor dam, Elite sire). Surprisingly, the PP group (Poor dam and sire) was not the worst, as one would expect.

Here’s the interesting part: Foals with Elite dams (EE and EP) had statistically similar superior results while foals with Elite sires (EE and PE) did not demonstrate the same similarities, instead, showing an influence related more closely to the performance of their dam. The foals of Poor dams (PE and PP) were poor across the board, even those by Elite sires.

The study concludes “that maternal heritability of athletic performance may be a stronger contributor than paternal heritability to race ability.”

The researchers hypothesize that this is due to mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), which is inherited only through the female parent and has a strong influence in the production of ATP, the prime source of energy for any activity, in particular, physical exercise. Sires pass on a lot of important characteristics to their progeny, but they don’t pass on mtDNA as mares do. If superior mtDNA is the thing that makes the critical difference, then we’ve been putting emphasis in the wrong place, relying too heavily on stallions.

Gainesway

Since Joe Estes’ research in the 1940s and 1950s, studies have proved time and again that the best racemares make the best broodmares, but up until now it hasn’t been demonstrated that the mare’s input may actually be more important than that of the sire’s. Good racemares are almost always bred to the best stallions available, so testing them against members of the “poor” community hasn’t been something that most breeders would attempt, which makes these results especially intriguing.

Theories have tried to prove the greater importance of good mares with mixed success. Geneticists have already discounted the so-called “X Factor” theory, which proposed that weaving their way down the breed were certain x-chromosomes that were deemed responsible for producing larger-than-average hearts, which, in turn, were presumed to translate into greatness. While several genes are related to heart size, researchers mapping the equine genome didn’t find any of them on the x-chromosome. This doesn’t dismiss the idea that certain females could pass on certain superior traits, only that the X Factor, as it relates to heart size, wasn’t on the x-chromosome.

The so-called “Rasmussen Factor” is a theory focused on inbreeding to superior females. Inbreeding to any superior individual sounds like a good idea, but often the parents are simply not good enough to pull it off or the key ancestors are so distant that their influence is too diluted to be effective. There are many clever examples of the Rasmussen Factor, but it hasn’t proved itself under statistical scrutiny.

Bruce Lowe’s numbered female families are based on the direct tail-female path of the mtDNA, and his Family 1 remains the most prominent in producing top runners, for some reason, even today. Is it due to mtDNA? Some of his ideas seemed far-fetched, but maybe not so much now.

This new study on maternal influence could help explain why so few stallions succeed in the highly competitive stallion market, or, rather, why so many apparently well-qualified stallion prospects prove mediocre or fail altogether.

It could also help us understand why the stallions we have valued as good or great can sire stakes winners at a rate as low as 5% of their foals, or a few rare ones, such as Danzig, as high as 19%. Compare this to a remarkable broodmare such as Juddmonte Farms’ Hasili, who produced 70% stakes winners to foals.



Edited by Sister Dot - 09 Jul 2025 at 3:00pm
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Thanks Sister Dot. Great reads.
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Hasili a deadset fav of mine
change is simply a destination on a journey reached by taking the first step (i said that) lol

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Rasmussen is fine in theory however successfully breeding back to superior females is essentially reliant on the presence of superior males and ok females in the pedigree also, particularly given those blue hen females may constitute only a relatively small percentage of a particular horse's overall profile.
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The world of Thoroughbred racing is as much about legacy as it is about the thrill of the finish line. A persistent question among breeders, owners, and enthusiasts is whether the elite racemares—those who shone  on the track—inevitably translate their greatness into the breeding shed by producing Group 1 (G1) performers of equal or superior talent. While there is an intuitive appeal to the idea, the reality is far more nuanced. Exceptional racemares sometimes do produce top-class offspring, but just as often, their racing brilliance does not reproduce itself in the next generation. Conversely, some modest racemares—some even with undistinguished or unremarkable racing records—have produced extraordinary progeny.

This phenomenon highlights the complexity of genetics, the influence of the chosen stallion, management practices, and a measure of luck. Here’s a look at both sides with notable examples.

·         Urban Sea: Winner of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1), she is perhaps the most famous recent example. Urban Sea produced Galileo (multiple G1 winner, champion sire) and Sea The Stars (Europe’s Horse of the Year, six consecutive G1 wins).

·         Miesque: A champion miler and multiple G1 winner, Miesque became the dam of Kingmambo (classic winner and top sire) and East of the Moon (dual French classic winner).

·         Zarkava: Undefeated on the track and winner of the Arc, her broodmare record is solid, though not matching her own heights, but she produced G1-placed Zarkandar.

·         Kind: She won at Listed level, not a superstar racemare, but as the dam of Frankel (undefeated champion, now a leading sire), her legacy is extraordinary.

Top Racemares Whose Progeny Did Not Match Their Own Racing Prowess

·         Goldikova: The legendary miler and three-time Breeders’ Cup Mile winner has, so far, not produced anything close to her own ability in her progeny.

·         Tepin: The champion turf mare and dual Breeders’ Cup winner has yet to see her offspring reach G1-winning heights.

·         Ouija Board: A brilliant racemare, winner of multiple G1s across the globe, and while she is the dam of Australia (Epsom Derby winner), most of her other progeny have not reached the same level.

·         Winx: The Australian legend, winner of 33 consecutive races including 25 G1s, only recently began her broodmare career, with her first foals yet to race.

·         Black Caviar: Another Aussie legend, with 25 consecutive wins, and 7 live foals by Written Tycoon (1-1w) , I Am Invincible (2-2w) , More Than Ready (1-0w) Snitzel (1-0w) Sebring (1-0w) Exceed And excel (1-0w), so had every chance

·         Makybe Diva. With # Melb Cups and Cox Plate to boot, another Aussie equine heroine, who failed at stud despite having an acceptable w/r ratio

Great Broodies from more humble beginnings

·         Hasili: Won a single race, at Listed level, but became one of the greatest broodmares, producing five G1 winners including Banks Hill, Intercontinental, Heat Haze, and Champs Elysees. Her sons and daughters have also bred on.

·         Better Than Honour: While a G2 winner herself, her impact as a broodmare is legendary, producing Belmont Stakes winners Jazil and Rags to Riches.

While genetics naturally play a central role, several key factors help to explain why even the greatest racemares do not always reproduce their brilliance in the breeding barn:

·         Stallion Compatibility: The match between mare and stallion is crucial; even a top mare might not “nick” well with a particular stallion. many times, the “nick is only considered Sire x BM sire, when in fact a nick can be anywhere in a pedigree, IMO up to 5 -6 -7 generations, too often “Fashion” is chosen over Pedigree, when in fact, Pedigree always tells in the end

·         Physical and Genetic Variables: Some traits that make a mare a great racer may not be easily inherited,  or may require a complementary gene from the stallion.

·         Management and Opportunity: The care, training, and opportunities given to the offspring play a significant role in their eventual success.

·         Luck: The unpredictable nature of genetics and environment means that even the most carefully planned matings can produce average performers—or champions from humble mares. Of all the above. LUCK is probably the biggest leveler

In summary, while many top racemares have excelled as broodmares, the relationship is not guaranteed. Outstanding examples like Urban Sea and Miesque show what is possible, but equally, some of the most legendary names have not replicated their track success in the breeding shed. Conversely, mares with modest or even disappointing racing careers have sometimes produced multiple champions. The magic of Thoroughbred breeding remains a blend of science, art, and serendipity, ensuring that the next champion can come from almost anywhere.

Copyright © take2  july 2025



Edited by Take2 - 09 Jul 2025 at 4:36pm
change is simply a destination on a journey reached by taking the first step (i said that) lol

www.3rdmillenniumbloodstock.com.au
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote horlicks Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Jul 2025 at 4:51pm
Delacroix won the Sussex Stakes last Saturday giving Tepin a group 1 winner
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Jul 2025 at 5:26pm
Originally posted by Second Chance Second Chance wrote:

Rasmussen is fine in theory however successfully breeding back to superior females is essentially reliant on the presence of superior males and ok females in the pedigree also, particularly given those blue hen females may constitute only a relatively small percentage of a particular horse's overall profile.

What's sometimes missed is that Rasmussen isn't just about breeding back to superior females but as I read it rather in-breeding (ie duplicating) those mares in subsequent progeny.  So more than a few superior mares whose influences haven't been carried forward aren't relevant because they haven't been duplicated in pedigrees.

And sort of forgetting Rasmussen for a moment, but sticking with superior females, it's would appear logical to plan matings around successful broodmares rather than successful racemares, even if they're a number of generations back though not too remote to be meaningful.

All just scratching the surface in what's a very inexact science.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Plastic letters Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Jul 2025 at 7:53pm
Thanks sister dot and this is my big belief and takeaway
A team of researchers in China and Australia generated statistics that suggest a mother’s influence may actually be more important than a father’s influence when it comes to racing ability. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shammy Davis Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Nov 2025 at 12:49am
Originally posted by Second Chance Second Chance wrote:

Originally posted by Second Chance Second Chance wrote:

Rasmussen is fine in theory however successfully breeding back to superior females is essentially reliant on the presence of superior males and ok females in the pedigree also, particularly given those blue hen females may constitute only a relatively small percentage of a particular horse's overall profile.

What's sometimes missed is that Rasmussen isn't just about breeding back to superior females but as I read it rather in-breeding (ie duplicating) those mares in subsequent progeny.  So more than a few superior mares whose influences haven't been carried forward aren't relevant because they haven't been duplicated in pedigrees.

And sort of forgetting Rasmussen for a moment, but sticking with superior females, it's would appear logical to plan matings around successful broodmares rather than successful racemares, even if they're a number of generations back though not too remote to be meaningful.

All just scratching the surface in what's a very inexact science.
Absolutely. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shammy Davis Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Nov 2025 at 1:29am
A successful breeder has to read between the lines of a pedigree. Take for instance BOLD RULER sire of SECRETARIAT.  

Bold Ruler is inbred 5x5 to 1911 English champion sire Sundridge. He is a full brother to stakes winner Nasco and the good steeplechaser Independence. Bold Ruler's half sister Foolish One (by Tom Fool) is the second dam of 1982 St. Leger Stakes (ENG-G1) winner Touching Wood and multiple South African Group 1 winner Fools Holme. Another half sister, Hill Rose (by Rosemont), produced 1971 Widener Handicap winner True North.

Bold Ruler's dam Miss Disco was a good stakes winner over sprint distances and is a full sister to 1949 Metropolitan Handicap winner Loser Weeper and 1950 Oaklawn Handicap winner Thwarted. She was produced from juvenile stakes winner Outdone (by Pompey), a full sister to multiple stakes winner Clean Out and a half sister to Charwoman (by Discovery), dam of 1954 New Orleans Handicap winner Grover B. and multiple Canadian stakes winner Sword Woman (both by Blue Swords). The next dam in the tail-female line, Sweep Out (by Sweep On), is a multiple stakes winner out of Dugout, by Under Fire. 

SECRETARIAT'S broodmare sire, PRINCEQUILLO, is characterized less on pedigree and more on talent.  A well-balanced bay horse of the medium-distance type, Princequillo was rather plain and a little on the small side (about 15.3 hands) but was sound and durable with good substance for his size. He was a good mover and had a masculine presence but also had a calm disposition. He had an attractive head with a large, intelligent eye.

According to records kept by The Jockey Club, Princequillo sired 332 winners (68.7%) and 65 stakes winners (13.5%) from 483 named foals. He was noted as a source of stamina and soundness and also tended to pass on a sensible temperament, important factors in the successful nick of his daughters and granddaughters with Nasrullah and his sons. Princequillo is an Intermediate/Solid chef-de-race in the Roman-Miller dosage system. Somethingroyal, SECRETARIAT'S broodmare was an unproven racemare.

But just characterizing the breeding shed or solely on performance isn't good enough anymore. Racemare pedigrees must have proven talent throughout their ancestry.  Knowing when to stop supportive inbreeding is more important than encouraging it. Lastly, the environmental background of both mates says much about potential talent. A good trainer and conditioner opens breeding shed doors while a marginal or bad trainer closes them. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Hello Sunshine Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Nov 2025 at 11:24am
Trainers can make and break sire lines.
Marketing and fashion also.
Case book, St Jean.

ps I like your new horse second chance. Lots of great WA breeding and racing in the dam line.
And i think Lindsey Smith trained dam.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Nov 2025 at 11:39am
Thank you Sunshine.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Shammy Davis Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Nov 2025 at 12:27pm
Some years back I read a book titled "The Science of Bloodstock Breeding" by B. Vijay. Copyrighted in 1991 it was a very thoughtful treatise on the entire field of bloodstock breeding. A chemical engineer by trade, Vijay, a resident of Madras, India was enthralled with the Thoroughbred since childhood and as I recall he included not only valid discussions leading to compatible thus successful breeding of bloodstock but also analytical and statistical data to assist in forming conclusions. If anything, it was a thought provoking book, that still led me to believe that even with a heavy amount of luck in a breeders favor, the chances of identifying a successful racing match was questionable. It is no wonder that at the historic Keenland Racecourse (KY) there is no Barn #13 and avoidance of black cats is the rule. Lord forbid the reins hit the ground in the saddling area as that is the real kiss of death.  I once heard an owner lamenting he was having a bad day at his business and then a friend of his reminded him it could be worse as the day wasn't over and he owned a couple of horses entered in races that day. The horse teaches us a great deal, but sadly very little of it has to do with horses. I guess there is profit in humility.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sister Dot Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Jan 2026 at 9:17am
Ken Beer Mate Your Mare 

We’ve just finished analysing 552,130 horses born between 2010 and 2020 — and the findings are going to change how you value broodmares.



For decades, the market has treated any “winning dam” as a premium asset. But when you strip away assumptions and look at the actual outcomes, the truth is unmistakable:

Stakes-winning dams: 7.93% stakes-winner rate

Non-stakes winning dams: 3.62%

Dams that never won: 3.17%



That tiny difference between a non-stakes winner and a mare that never won?

Just +0.45 percentage points. Almost no uplift at all.



Meanwhile, the uplift delivered by stakes-winning dams is +4.76 percentage points — more than 10× the value of a non-stakes win.

And the earnings follow the same pattern. In Australia, offspring from stakes-winning dams earn $69,766 more, on average, than those from non-stakes dams.

Most breeders are still paying premiums for mares who won a few races but never won at stakes level. The data shows this doesn’t hold up.



In the first article of our new four-part series, we break down:

The real uplift delivered by stake-winning dams

Global patterns across major jurisdictions

How the market is mispricing dam quality

The $70,000 earnings gap

And how this affects buying, breeding, and portfolio decisions



The Dam Quality Revolution: Part 1 — The 10x Rule

Read the full article →



This sets the foundation for what’s coming next:

Part 2: Why G2/G3 dams offer the best ROI in the entire market

Part 3: Why males benefit more from stakes dams than females

Part 4: The stallions that produce 40% stakes winners with the right mares




Edited by Sister Dot - 24 Jan 2026 at 9:18am
“Where in this wide world can man find nobility without pride, friendship without envy, or beauty without vanity? Here where grace is laced with muscle and strength by gentleness confined”
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Glencoe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Jan 2026 at 8:28pm
Where can we read the full article above    OR    is the above purely advertorial
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