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2019 Melbourne Cup

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djebel View Drop Down
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    Posted: 27 Apr 2020 at 8:03pm
Originally posted by max manewer max manewer wrote:

You mean they are taking all-in bets on the 2020 MC, in the current uncertainty ?


They all have markets up.

They should be up to date.





reductio ad absurdum



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Apr 2020 at 12:34pm
You mean they are taking all-in bets on the 2020 MC, in the current uncertainty ?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Apr 2020 at 12:30pm
As far as I can see NO bookmakers have seen the need to add Haky to the Melbourne Cup markets.

Amateurs fair dinkum amateurs.






reductio ad absurdum



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jamal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Dec 2019 at 12:07pm
Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Originally posted by kavg kavg wrote:

The only thing that stinks and is rated as a fail is doing ratings with hindsight! 

Ratings are always done after the races .
I didn't back the winner because of the draw ..   ( my   point ) but was in my top few.

Ratings are as good as ever .    Even back to the Cliff Carey era .

     ( Don Scott put the best of the best past ratings into his value pricing & changed The Punt for a lot of people )    GREAT work.

    The problem facing the punt today is the never ending drain on the Punter Dollar to buy toys for the likes of V'Landy.
He doubled the take out percentages on NSW racing and we punters still line up .
   We are reaching the stage where poker machines are better value ( Yoke Yoyce ) as Graham Kennedy Would say .       Merry Xmas to you & yours.



Why would the draw put you off? Cup winners have won from wide gates
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Dec 2019 at 4:25pm
Originally posted by kavg kavg wrote:

The only thing that stinks and is rated as a fail is doing ratings with hindsight! 

Ratings are always done after the races .
I didn't back the winner because of the draw ..   ( my   point ) but was in my top few.

Ratings are as good as ever .    Even back to the Cliff Carey era .

     ( Don Scott put the best of the best past ratings into his value pricing & changed The Punt for a lot of people )    GREAT work.

    The problem facing the punt today is the never ending drain on the Punter Dollar to buy toys for the likes of V'Landy.
He doubled the take out percentages on NSW racing and we punters still line up .
   We are reaching the stage where poker machines are better value ( Yoke Yoyce ) as Graham Kennedy Would say .       Merry Xmas to you & yours.
GOD BLESS DONALD JOHN TRUMP and
      AMERICA ---
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote kavg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Dec 2019 at 3:53pm
The only thing that stinks and is rated as a fail is doing ratings with hindsight! 
If you want peace in this world stop being a hypocrite and start with what is on your plate and in your bowl.
Prejudice is an emotional attachment to ignorance.
DiEM25 for the world.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Dec 2019 at 3:43pm
Originally posted by kavg kavg wrote:

Is it 16 November or December today? Or did someone just wake up from a comaBig smile


I've been catching up on my ratings & crying about all the winners I missed .

   Voyager is always miles ahead with his work, Ratings and selections and I balance up by being always miles behind .

   Some are worse than me and tip after the Races.

Congratulations on your observations and seizing an opportunity to make a name for yourself .     You failed ... It still stinks , as always.
GOD BLESS DONALD JOHN TRUMP and
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote kavg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Dec 2019 at 2:48pm
Is it 16 November or December today? Or did someone just wake up from a comaBig smile
If you want peace in this world stop being a hypocrite and start with what is on your plate and in your bowl.
Prejudice is an emotional attachment to ignorance.
DiEM25 for the world.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Dec 2019 at 2:10pm
The Ratings for the Melb Cup did brilliant.    Had about 10 chances .

The Countries best Jockey , combined by his best ride ever , showed his Caulfield Cup , very wide run ,   was the key to the Grand Final .

Williams went forward and won the Cup twice, being in front at winning post both times.

His (Shane Dye) ride on a very wide drawn stayer =   Genius .

Lead,     Take a sit ,    1st prize thank you.
GOD BLESS DONALD JOHN TRUMP and
      AMERICA ---
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Nov 2019 at 1:34pm
fiddlesticks, they make it difficult.

At the recent Melbourne City Council meeting there was a motion put forward, to eliminate the Melbourne Cup parade.

The motion was put forward by a greens councillor, and another wept as she told of her horror that her council supported such a barbaric industry.

Any type of activist, protestor or radical extreme supporter of anything are the individuals who strengthen the voice of those who do not want change.

I am absolutely 100% serious when I say this.

These individuals, will not stop until every person stops consuming animals for food, we all stop having pets, and the only animals on the planet are wild.

I am all for promoting, supporting and overseeing animal protection, but we all need to be very careful, that we do not allow a section of the community to dictate what we all think, we have already been through that when the church was more influential, and we have seen what happened in those days.

Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jamal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Nov 2019 at 10:00am
Prince Of Arran off to HK. Original idea was Japan Cup but no barrier blankets are allowed so he is off to HK
Your F50 aircraft is now ready for boarding.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote kavg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Nov 2019 at 8:13am
All the ratings systems are flawed.

The logic behind them is outdated.

The rating for il paradiso is overinflated. He got baulked over last 50m. Probably cost him half length at most. It was a low rating slowly run cup with a very bunched finish.

How he is rated 5 points higher than v+d is not logical. How he is rated 4 above master of reality who carried a lot more weight is also not logical.

If you want peace in this world stop being a hypocrite and start with what is on your plate and in your bowl.
Prejudice is an emotional attachment to ignorance.
DiEM25 for the world.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jamal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Nov 2019 at 10:39pm
And also Timeform is for performances
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jamal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Nov 2019 at 10:39pm
Originally posted by VOYAGER VOYAGER wrote:

Originally posted by Grey Affair Grey Affair wrote:

Il Paradiso probably gets an additional 9 or 10 pounds for being a Northern Hemisphere 3yo.



I would understand that GA, but for one thing.

He has already been given the advantage by carrying less weight!, That factor should have already been used in the rating of the performance, there should be no need for adjustment in a handicap race.

You can not put up a rating in Timeform, for potential. In this race he was carrying less weight than the older POA, but POA's, form was analysed as being only slightly better than the 3yo's. And do not forget Carpenter is a member of the Timeform group for this region of the world, I hope I have read that correctly.

Either the Timeform rating is on a specific performance or it is not.

Either way I have a very cautious view of Timeform ratings, regardless of where the rating is given.


Carpenter is not part of the Timeform team in Australia. Carpenter is the Australian rep for the Lingines IFHA (International Federation of Horseracing Authorities)

Each rep from each country meet to discuss the ratings for best races horse in the world for awards. For me more info on that..see link below:

https://www.longines.com.au/universe/events-sports/rankings/race-horse-rankings

Timeform is different and they use different methods. However I use Timeform ratings over the Longines ratings.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Grey Affair Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Nov 2019 at 9:22pm
I hope I didn't sound argumentative. I didn't mean to as I agree with your comments. Often, the reason young horses perform well as 2yo & 3yo is because they have matured earlier than their contemporaries & they may have no or little improvement left as they grow older, certainly in comparison to the WFA scale. You raise a very good point as to whether ratings services should allow for improvement.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Nov 2019 at 8:55pm
I do think what you said was correct, but it should not be, so I was agreeing with you, and having a dig at Timeform
Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Grey Affair Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Nov 2019 at 8:49pm
I'm not saying I agree with it.

Also, many would suggest that the allowance for 3yos is far greater than it should be.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Grey Affair Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Nov 2019 at 8:47pm
Like it or not, that is the reason!

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Nov 2019 at 8:39pm
Originally posted by Grey Affair Grey Affair wrote:

Il Paradiso probably gets an additional 9 or 10 pounds for being a Northern Hemisphere 3yo.



I would understand that GA, but for one thing.

He has already been given the advantage by carrying less weight!, That factor should have already been used in the rating of the performance, there should be no need for adjustment in a handicap race.

You can not put up a rating in Timeform, for potential. In this race he was carrying less weight than the older POA, but POA's, form was analysed as being only slightly better than the 3yo's. And do not forget Carpenter is a member of the Timeform group for this region of the world, I hope I have read that correctly.

Either the Timeform rating is on a specific performance or it is not.

Either way I have a very cautious view of Timeform ratings, regardless of where the rating is given.
Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jamal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Nov 2019 at 8:08pm
The ratings are from Timeform Australia
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Grey Affair Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Nov 2019 at 6:56pm
Il Paradiso probably gets an additional 9 or 10 pounds for being a Northern Hemisphere 3yo.

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Timeform is an overpriced con
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jamal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Nov 2019 at 6:40pm
In your opinion what rating did Il Paradiso deserve?

Edited by Gay3 - 09 Nov 2019 at 6:46pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote kavg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Nov 2019 at 6:28pm
The high rating for il paradise is another example of how ridiculous timeform ratings are.
If you want peace in this world stop being a hypocrite and start with what is on your plate and in your bowl.
Prejudice is an emotional attachment to ignorance.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jamal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Nov 2019 at 5:51pm
Timeform Ratings - 2019 Melbourne Cup

1st: Vow And Declare: 117

2nd: Prince Of Arran: 115

3rd: Il Paradiso: 122

4th: Master Of Reality: 118

5th: Surprise Baby: 113

6th: Mer De Glace: 118

7th: Finche: 113

8th: Cross Counter: 121

9th: Steel Prince: 110

10th: Magic Wand: 109

11th: Twilight Payment: 112

12th: Sound: 109

13th: Constantinople: 117

14th: Mirage Dancer: 113

15th: Hunting Horn: 111

16th: Raymond Tusk: 109+

17th: The Chosen One: 110

18th: Latrobe: 108

19th: Southern France: 109

20th: Youngstar: 101

21st: Neufbosc: 103

22nd: Downdraft: 102

23rd: Mistajeer: 102

24th: Rostropovoch: No Rating
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Lord Hybrow Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Nov 2019 at 11:22am
Timeform is such a dull way to rate races.

I prefer to rate races on the excitement factor. For me the highest rating Melb Cups of the last decade are V&D and PoP.   The lowest excitement factor were C.Counter & Rekindling.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jamal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Nov 2019 at 9:15am
Timeform UK/Timeform Australia: Cup Winners and their rating for Winning the Melbourne Cup - Past 20 Years

2019: Vow And Declare: 117/117

2018: Cross Counter: 124/124

2017: Rekindling: 123/123

2016 Almandin: 119/119

2015: Prince Of Penzance: 117/119

2014: Protectionist: 128/128

2013: Fiorente: 125/125

2012: Green Moon: 124/124

2011: Dunaden: 124/124

2010: Americain: 126/126

2009: Shocking: 117/119

2008: Viewed: 120/120

2007: Efficient: 123

2006: Delta Blues: 125/125

2005: Makybe Diva: 128/128

2004: Makybe Diva: 124/125

2003 Makybe Diva: 114/117

2002: Media Puzzle: 117/117

2001: Ethereal: 119/119

2000: Brew: 111/114

1999: Rogan Josh: 114/114




Edited by Gay3 - 09 Nov 2019 at 6:45pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote kavg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Nov 2019 at 7:41am
I don't know what other winners have rated but it surely should be one of the lowest rated Cups. Farcically run and an extremely bunched finish.

I'd rate Craig Williams 130 on Timeform and the rest of the field -13.

Anyway this is what we are likely to keep getting in the years to come when the Irish dominate the race. 7 runners between Aidan and Joseph O Brien and they colluded to give it to one of their runners. Instead of putting genuine pace they sat and made it a 600m sprint home. But that is what happens in most Irish races where they dominate the field. Master of Reality,Latrobe and Twilight Payment all have no reservoir of stamina over 3200m and their only chance was to try and steal it.

Interestingly none of the Coolmore/Aidan runners decided to go forward except Hunting Horn who decided he'd sit 3 wide with no cover and not attack the leading duo. 

Or was it to force anything that wanted to go forward to have to travel 4 wide? Yet jockey of Hunting Horn still complained that the pace was too slow!
If you want peace in this world stop being a hypocrite and start with what is on your plate and in your bowl.
Prejudice is an emotional attachment to ignorance.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Nov 2019 at 6:35am
Would be interesting to see the deductive process that Jamal used to back Vow and Declare

Australian stayers are krapp - first premise
The mystery part for Jamal to writeShocked - second premise
Back Vow and Declare - conclusion
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jamal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Nov 2019 at 4:26am
So Timeform UK gave a rating of 117 for Vow And Declare's Cup win. It will be interesting to see what rating Timeform Australia give.
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