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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Apr 2021 at 8:16pm
Okay here is where the Punters Club sits.

Vinery Stud Stakes:  -$500.00
Tancred Stakes      ; +$450.00

Outlay: $1000.00                      Return: $950.00                                  Profit/Loss: -$50.00

                                                                                               Total  Profit/Loss: +$5829.50

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Ascot

WATC Derby

1. No.1 - 85
2. No.2 - 80
3. No.8 - 78
4. No.6 - 77
5. No.7 - 75
6. No.9 - 74
Add ins for any scratchings are No.4 & No.10
Recommended Bet: $50 Place No.6 Lunar Impact
Precedent: No.1 Western Empire

Morphettville

Dequetteville Stakes

1. No.1 - 74
2. No.2 - 73
3. No.3 - 72
4. No.8 - 70
5. No.7 - 68
6. No.6 - 65
Add ins for any scratchings are No.5 & No.4
Recommended Bet: $50 win No.1 Cloudy
Precedent: No.3 Champagne Dreams

Port Adelaide Guineas.

1. No.13 - 85
2. No.14 - 83
3. No.  1 - 80
4. No.  4 - 77
5. No.  5 - 75
6. No.15 - 74
Add ins for any scratchings are No.3 & No.8
Recommended Bet: $50 win No.13 Chica Fuerte
Precedence: No.14 Ecumenical    
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Randwick

Kindergarten Stakes

1. No.10 - 82
2. No.  3 - 79
3. No.  7 - 77
4. No.  2 - 75
5. No.  8 - 75
6. No.  4 - 74
Add ins for any scratchings are No.11 & No.5
Recommended Bet: $20 win + $30 place No.10 Lovemetender
Precedent: No.3 King Of Sparta

Carbine Club Stakes

1. No.4 - 82
2. No.2 - 82
3. No.1 - 79
4. No.5 - 77
5. No.6 - 76
6. No.8 - 74
Add ins for any scratchings are No.12 & No.3
Recommended Bet: $20 win No.4 The Irishman
                              $30 win No.1 Poland
Precedent: No.1 Poland

Adrian Knox Stakes

1. No.1 - 80
2. No.5 - 78
3. No.11-76
4. No.4 - 75
5. No.9 - 73
6. No.3 - 73
Add ins for any scratchings are No.7 & No.6
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.1 Salto Angel
                              $10 each way No.4 Easifar
Precedent: No.3 Flexible

Chairman's Handicap

1. No.6 - 83
2. No.2 - 82
3. No.5 - 78
4. No.3 - 77
5. No.11- 75
6. No.12- 73
Add ins for any scratchings are No.1 & No.4
Recommended Bet: $20 win + $30 place No.2 Concert Hall
Precedent: No.6 Scaramento

P.J.Bell Stakes

1. No.3 - 82
2. No.1 - 79
3. No.6 - 79
4. No.5 - 77
5. No.4 - 76
6. No.2 - 75
Add ins for any scratchings are No.10 & No.8
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.6 Never Talk
                               $10 each way No.5 Supreme Idea
Precedent: No.4 Matchmaker.
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Riccarton

Listed 1600m 3yo fillies.

1. No.3 - 82
2. No.8 - 80
3. No.2 - 78
4. No.1 - 76
5. No.4 - 75
6. No.9 - 74
Add ins for any scratchings are No.6 & No.11
Recommended Bet: $50 win No.3 Atishu
Precedent: No.8 Lelawala

Easter Cup

1. No.3 - 88
2. No.5 - 85
3. No.8 - 83
4. No.16- 79
5. No.10- 77
6. No.11- 75

Add ins for any scratchings are No.2 & No.1.
Recommended Bet: $50 win No.3 Belle Fascino
Precedent: No.8 Whale Song


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Apr 2021 at 9:46pm
Okay onto the five group 1 races.

Te Aroha

NZ Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes

1. Avantage - 100. Looks well placed and is hard to beat.
2. Levante - 88. In good form but has been found wanting against the top one. Place hope.
3. Coventina Bay - 80. Has been racing well in group 3 company. First go at group 1 level, and she can run top four.
4. Travelling Light - 80. I know she has the talent to win. The ratings say no, but could back her at the $26.00.
5. Siracusa - 78. Mixes her form and no value. Not here.
6. Familia - 77. Not sure 1600m is her best distance.
7. Tabata - 69. No.
8. Bad N Bouj - 69. Not here.
9. Cherry Lane - 69. Needs it easier.

Ratings

1. No.1 Avantage - 100
2. No.2 Levante - 88
3. No.4 Travelling Light - 80
4. No.3 Coventina Bay - 80
5. No.5 Siracusa - 78
6. No.6 Familia - 77

Add ins for any scratchings are No.7 & No.8
Recommended Bet: $50 win No.1 Avantage
Precedent: No.4 Travelling Light

Summary: On the ratings it seems that Avantage is hard to beat. Levante and Travelling Light are the dangers and if they can get a gap on Avantage at the top of the straight they can win. 

Punters Club Investments

$300 win @ $2.00 No.1 Avantage
$100 each way @$26.00 + $7.00 No.4 Travelling Light   
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Randwick

ATC Sires Produce Stakes

1. Anamoe - 90. Only reason he is not on 100 is the 1400m, but that should not be any concern. His form is outstanding and he has finally found a beautiful barrier. Clearly the one to beat.
2. Captivant - 82. Comes into this off a similar prep to his stablemate last year, who won this race. I thought he ran okay in the Slipper and no surprise to see him run well here.
3. Lightsaber - 75. Comes through a lower level of quality. The VRC Sires has not been a great guide to this race and so he can run without my money.
4. Tiger Of Malay - 78. Going okay, but he steps up in quality here. I would need double figures to back him, but can run top four.
5. Daily Bugle - 73. Needs to improve and I am not sure he is up to this quality.
6. Hilal - 78. Has been racing well, and 1400m will suit, but can he make up the ground to win. Needs things to go his way, but will run well.
7. Lease - 70. Going okay, but this is one of Anthony's throw at the stumps. 
8. Four Moves Ahead - 87. Now she has had the two strong runs she should be near her fitness peak and the 1400m looks ideal. The danger to the top rater.
9. Queen Of Wizardry - 80. I am forgiving her Slipper run as she was fresh into off the Magic Millions just like King's Legacy last year. The stable have always said that 1400 and 1600m will be her best distance range and I am trusting that. I am probably leading with my head a little but she has good form and she is better than a $51.00 hope.
10. Chill - 72. Just out of maiden grade and will like the 1400m but needs to improve significantly.

Ratings.

1. No.1 Anamoe - 90
2. No.8 Four Moves Ahead - 87
3. No.2 Captivant - 82
4. No.9 Queen Of Wizardry - 80
5. No.4 Tiger Of Malay - 78
6. No.6 Hilal - 78
Add ins for any scratchings are No.3 & No.5
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.1 Anamore
                              $10 each way No.9 Queen Of Wizardry
Precedent: No.8 Four Moves Ahead

Summary: Looks a race in three, Anamoe, Four Moves Ahead and Captivant, but for me Anamoe is as close to a good thing as you can get. His form is outstanding and he has finally drawn a nice gate in a group 1, and should do no work early in the race. Four Moves Ahead was good last time out but again are the fillies as good as the colts. Captivant comes in off a similar prep to his stablemate last year and he is an improver. I am absolutely convinced Queen Of Wizardry is a top filly, and I think she is the improver in the race. Tiger Of Malay and Hilal will appreciate the 1400m, and are top four hopes.

Punters Club Investments.

$350 win @$2.20 No.1 Anamoe.
$50 win + $100 Place No.9 Queen Of Wizardry     
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Just before we get to the derby, the club have backed Queen Of Wizardry @ $67.00 + $15.00

Australian Derby

1. Lion's Roar - 88. Of his last run I have a serious concern about him at the 2400m. As I have stated all through the season the middle distance and staying 3yo group this season are not outstanding and so he will need to be right at his best to win. He does love Randwick and he rates as one of the main hopes.
2. Rocket Spade - 84. He does tick the 2400m box, however that form has not stood up over the last three weeks. He only just got the win at Ellerslie so he does need to have improved. Can win, but he will not be carrying any of my money.
3. Sky Lab - 90. Here is the one horse who looks a dead set 2400m horse. Good run last start when he just missed. From the gate I am expecting him to roll forward and sit either in the lead or right behind the speed and he will look the winner at some stage in the straight. Looks the one to beat to my eye.
4. Milford - 77. Had his chance last start and not sure he is up to this quality.
5. The Frontman - 78. Not sure he is as good as this stables previous winners, but I think back to the 2400m he can run top four.
6. Yaletown - 81. Good win last start and comes through the high rating Phar Lap stakes. I can not see him winning, but he can run top four.
7. Young Werther - 81. I am not sure he can win, but I think the 2400m will suit and he can run well but not win.
8. Khoekhoe - 81. I backed him last start and I thought he ran really well, but he just ran out of fitness in the last 300m. He was five weeks into that, and I know others have a doubt about him at 2400m, but from the barrier he will go forward, and if he can get a couple of cheap sectionals mid race I can see him being a big improver from the Guineas. With no Mo'unga, Wheelhouse and only 3.5 lengths off Montefilia, I think he can at least run a place. 
9. Prompt Prodigy - 82. To me he is the improver out of the Tulloch. Yes he had the track bias on his side last week, but he looks like the 2400m is his distance. I think there are a few who are better hopes, but I do not think he is a $51.00 chance. 
10. Explosive Jack - 72. Beaten by a genuine improver last start, but needs to improve to even finish top five here. 
11. Toscanini - 78. Not sure what to make of this guy. He comes through races against older horses and his run two back behind Welsh Legend was good with the 57 kilos. Not sure he has the class to win, but he goes in all my exotics.
12. Favreau - 80. Looked a little one paced last week, which might indicate that he is looking for the 2400m. Another top four hope.
13. Rondino - 74. Not here.
14. Zakspeed - 78. If he had more form against the better horses, and he had run that race last week, he would be a leading hope. I thought he was sensational in the last 200m last wek having the fastest last 200m of the race. He is no where near bred to get 2400m, but if he can run the distance, I have seen horses with poorer form finish top five. The $151.00 is way overs.
15. Olympic Gaze - 65. No.
16. Montefilia - 90. She needs to improve on her VRC Oaks run, but her two runs back this prep have been perfect for this race. Again I might be more confident if she had had another 2000m run, but she showed last start she is right up with the males.

Ratings

1. No.3 Sky Lab - 90
2. No.16 Montefilia - 90
3. No.1 Lion's Roar - 88
4. No.2 Rocket Spade - 84
5. No.9 Prompt Prodigy - 82
6. No.8 Khoekhoe - 81
Add ins for any scratchings are No.6 & No.7
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.3 Sky Lab
                              $10 win No.8 Khoekhoe
                              $5 each way No.9 Prompt Prodigy
Precedent: No.6 Yaletown

Summary: Obviously when I put the form into the computer it came up with the Tulloch as the form reference. I do think there are several top five hopes from that race and the odds allow me to back a few, but Sky Lab and Montefilia were good enough in the Guineas to make them the two to beat. I thought Khoekhoe looked the winner until his fitness gave out last start and he can improve here while Zakspeed is not bred to get the 2400m but his last 200m last start was a sign he might be on the up. Toscanini is hard to line up, but his form in the races against the older horses is good. I am usually all over the NZ form lines, but they have shown that form is not quite good enough over the last three weeks. 

Punters Club Investments

$120 win @$5.00 No.3 Sky Lab
$150 win @$4.00 No.16 Montefilia
$  70 win @$11.00 No.8 Khoekhoe
$30 win + $50 place @$71.00 + $15.00 No.9 Prompt Prodigy
$30 each way $41.00 + $11.00 No.11 Toscanini
$10 each way $201.00 + $51.00 No.14 Zakspeed             
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T.J.Smith Stakes

1. Bivouac - 84. Just not sure he is racing right at his best this prep. At his best he is a definite winning hope, but he will be running with my support.
2. Nature Strip - 100. Two runs this prep have been top class. Clear top rater here and if he shows up he is a good bet. 
3. Eduardo - 100. He is in career best form, loves Randwick, no chinks at the 1200m and comes off a barrier trial win against the handicappers. Trainer could not have him any more primed.
4. Zoutori - 80. Again he looks to be in career best form and deserves to be here. Needs to improve to win, but can run well.
5. Masked Crusader - 90. His last start showed just how much he has improved. He steps up to the A Grade here, but he did beat Bivouac home two back. Should get a similar run to last start, and do no work early and be kept for the late surge. Winning hope.
6. Dirty Work - 80. He is racing well without luck. I would like to see him sit forward but still only a top four hope.
7. Order Of Command - 75. Great effort last time out, but he lo0oks outclassed here. 
8. Eleven Eleven - 72. Looks to be starting his Stradbroke prep here. Not at WFA.
9. Libertini - 78. Tends to drop off her fresh runs, and she will need to be at her best to win here.
10. Haut Brion Her. Scratched
11. September Run - 80. Needs to improve and I am looking at her Sydney form and seeing a drop in rating from her Melbourne form. She can win without me.

Ratings

1. No.3 Eduardo - 100
2. No.2 Nature Strip - 100
3. No.5 Masked Crusader - 90
4. No.1 Bivouac - 84
5. No.4 Zoutori - 80
6. No.6 Dirty Work - 80
Add ins for any scratchings are No.11 & No.9
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.5 Masked Crusader
                              $20 win No.2 Nature Strip
Precedent: No.3 Eduardo

Summary: For me there are only three winning hopes. Nature Strip, Eduardo and the new kid on the block, Masked Crusader. He needs to improve but I will have Masked Crusader as the main bet and save on the Big E. Dirty Work is racing well without luck and Zoutori is a good sprinter, but I am suspecting he is a better Melbourne way horse. 

Punters Club Investments

$150 win @$4.80 No.3 Eduardo
$200 win @$9.50 No.5 Masked Crusader
$150 win $3.80 No.2 Nature Strip   
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Doncaster Mile

1. Mugatoo - 100. Looks well placed and he and Avilius are the best weighted horses in the race. Deserved favorite.
2. Avilius - 100. His two runs this prep have been great. I am still not sure about him in a bottomless heavy track, but he has to be a huge chance.
3. Samadoubt - 75. Has too much against. Wet track, a run short and the barrier with speed inside him. 
4. Star Of The Seas - 85. Not sure what happened last start. Back up to the 1600m should suit. Top four hope.
5. Olmedo - 73. On his Australian runs he is better off in Melbourne.
6. Shout The Bar - 82. Just forgetting that run last start. Likes the distance, will go forward, and should be near her fitness peak. I can see her belying her $51.00 quote. 
7. Gem Song - Scratched. I thought he was a huge hope here.
8. Zaaki - 70. How does this horse get a run? If it wins I will call Donald Trump the best President ever. 
9. Aegon - 83. Top quality colt and he is well placed on the heavy. It also does seem he likes his races spaced, so the month between runs is nice.
10. Cascadian - 87. He has been placed at the mile at group 1 level, but I think he comes into this race in career best form. He is a bit of a non winner but he is a definite place hope.
11. Dalasan - 78. If the track gets to soft, he could be a top five hope. He is one of these former group 1 place getters who shows up out of form and at $51.00+ who runs okay. Can not win but could run well enough to earn a cheque.
12. Think It Over - 92. The heavy track is my only concern. On form he is the clear top rater. Loves Randwick, loves the 1600m and he is a George Ryder winner dropping in weight. Top three certainty.
13. Funstar - 80. Her second in the Epsom behind a quality mare, is good enough to win here, but her last run was shocking. Maybe the heavy and the 1600m could have her a chance. Not for me.
14. Best Of Days - 87. This horse for me is coming in under the radar. The heavy track is a concern, but his last five runs are good enough to run well here. If he can handle the track condition he could add to a Godolphin trifecta.
15. I Am Superman - 76. I am a big fan of his, but I am still doubtful at his mile form. Also the heavy to me might see him scratched.     
16. Rock - 75. Comes into this off basically a barrier trial run when only clear late and he sprinted the race fastest last 200m. His only heavy track run was a awful 17 length 8th to Verry Elleegant in the Phar Lap Stakes. He has been unable to win a group 1 with things in his favor, so for me on the heavy he can run without my support.
17. Nettoyer - 72. The defending champion but the fact that she actually drops a half kilo on that win last year shows that her form since has been shocking. I suppose the heavy track suits, but not many horses have won back to back Doncasters and she will add to the list who have not done that.
18. Yao Dash - 79. Good win last week. That race has been a shocking guide for the Doncaster. His form is against a lower grade, he hates heavy and not sure the 1600m will suit. Not for me.
19. Mo'Unga - 87. Fits the 3yo criteria coming back to the 1600m from 2000m, and lightly weighted. I have no doubt about him on the heavy and he is in the top three raters for me.
20. Forbidden Love - 85. A bit of a flat run last start. No trouble on the heavy, already a group 1 place getter at 1600m and loves Randwick. Will roll forward and if she can get a smother three wide she will be hard to beat. the only problme I have is that 3yo fillies do not have a great trecord in the race although not many run. 
21. Icebath - 84. With the weight, and the barrier and on the heavy she needs to use the barrier to go forward. If she can be more forward over the 1600m she can go close.
22. Wheelhouse - 82. Probably needs to improve to beat Mo'unga, but His heavy track win came at the mile at Randwick, but in inferior class. His Randwick guineas run, has him a hope and he has drawn to sit three wide with cover. can see him running better than his $41.00 quote.

Ratings.
  
1. No.1 Mugatoo - 100
2. No.2 Avilius - 100
3. No.12 Think It Over - 92
4. No.10 cascadian - 87
5. No.19 Mo'unga - 87
6. No.14 Best Of days - 87.
Add ins for any scratchings are No.20 & No.4
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.12 Think It Over
                              $20 win No.22 Wheelhouse
Precedent: No.19 Mo'unga

Summary: Good edition of the Doncaster, but not sure I would call it a true handicap. The top two are well weighted here and they are right in this race. Down the page Star Of The Seas and Shout The Bar are capable of bouncing back after poor runs last time out, Aegon on a heavy is well placed, Cascadian and Best Of Days can add to a formidable Godolphin trio, Think It Over on form is close to a good bet, but the heavy is the concern, and the bottom four are all hopes. As usual very open race and good luck with all your investments!

Punters Club Investments.

$100 win @$13.00 No. 2 Avilius
$100 win @$14.00 No.12 Think It Over
$20 each way @$41.00 + $10.00 No.14 Best Of Days
$80 win @$9.00 No.19 Mo'unga
$50 each way @$46.00 + $12.00 No.22 Wheelhouse (if he is not here swap to Forbidden Love)
$50 win @$15.00 No.9 Aegon
$10 win + $20 place @$61.00 + $14.00 No.6 Shout The Bar  

Good luck with all your investments! 
Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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