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THE VIRUS & Real Estate - Event Date: 09 May 2020

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Mr Prospector View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mr Prospector Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 May 2020 at 8:55am
I should have added ,when you owe the bank $1,000 your in trouble , when you owe them $ Billions the bank is in trouble .
Particularly when the bank holds large investments from areas north of Germany .
There are three types of lies - Lies ,Damn Lies and Statistics
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Shrunk in the Wash View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shrunk in the Wash Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 May 2020 at 9:01am
Originally posted by Passing Through Passing Through wrote:

Also if the govt hasn't done enough to protect small business there will be a huge number of closures and therefore empty commercial properties. Most of the businesses allowed to stay open were large to medium size. Those suffering most will be small business, mostly in hospitality. A lot of cafes, restaurants bars could close leaving a lot of vacant property. 


I’m not sure about that, PT.
Surely cafe business etc will revert to near normal once the restrictions are lifted? There may even be a surge
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maccamax View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 May 2020 at 9:07am
Hopefully your right Shrunk.   Who would be game to face the accrued Rents & other overheads waiting for them.
Many won't return to that sort of struggle. Ruined & Bankrupt.
NEVER FORGET,    > DOCTORS < ---
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 May 2020 at 9:07am
Originally posted by Mr Prospector Mr Prospector wrote:

Deutsche Bank and Donald Trump is worth a google . There’s a business that needs refinancing .

As an aside, the SCOTUS will hear arguments on Deutche Bank handing over Trump tax records next week.
"I have yet to see the book, but it is a book of falsehoods"
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shrunk in the Wash Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 May 2020 at 9:13am
Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Hopefully your right Shrunk.   Who would be game to face the accrued Rents & other overheads waiting for them.
Many won't return to that sort of struggle. Ruined & Bankrupt.


I’ve told my local to place my table back in the sunny corner ASAP🤪
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 May 2020 at 9:23am
I dont think cafes and restaurants will return to their already struggling numbers of a couple of months ago until well after a vaccine is available, and probably not even then. People are being conditioned to be safety aware. Who will confidently walk into a crowded venue?
"I have yet to see the book, but it is a book of falsehoods"
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Shrunk in the Wash View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shrunk in the Wash Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 May 2020 at 9:25am
I can see the queues at Maccas & KFC already. 😃
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max manewer View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 May 2020 at 10:05am
Originally posted by Mr Prospector Mr Prospector wrote:


I’ve never been a fan of a housing driven economy Macca . I don’t believe it builds a stronger economy , just a bubble .
I think we need to build more export facing businesses that the world wants .

Correct, I would say. The banks have sourced vast sums overseas, to loan to people to push the price of real estate to the sky. It is not a sustainable form of "prosperity". Only low interest rates are saving the day, were they to rise, the economy is "bust".
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mr Prospector Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 May 2020 at 10:38am
You’re right Max , high real estate prices primarily increases the debt for the middle class and reduces the amount of discretionary spend they have . This has the knock on effect of funnelling the countries wealth into an ever diminishing channels (banks) .

With lower house prices and a wealthier middle class , the discretionary spend is spread further and wider in the economy ,and this creates many many more jobs than would otherwise be there .
There are three types of lies - Lies ,Damn Lies and Statistics
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 May 2020 at 10:47am
All that housing debt, would have been better spent on infrastructure to improve the economy. Where I am, land has increased in price from $1k per perch, to $20k per perch, in a little over 30 years.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 May 2020 at 1:37pm
Originally posted by Passing Through Passing Through wrote:

I dont think cafes and restaurants will return to their already struggling numbers of a couple of months ago until well after a vaccine is available, and probably not even then. People are being conditioned to be safety aware. Who will confidently walk into a crowded venue?


Please PT..        > Tell me the grounds you use, to think a vaccine will be forthcoming.     Blind Freddy Knows That's not a remote possibility.

Yes . the Medical Brains of the World are working on it.

Those same brains worked on Sars1 , Mers , Ebola, Influenza's +A- Malaria
   Hong Kong Flu,Swine Flu, Measles, Dengue and a hundred others.
NEVER FORGET,    > DOCTORS < ---
   CAN'T SAVE THEMSELVES.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shrunk in the Wash Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 May 2020 at 1:42pm
Originally posted by Mr Prospector Mr Prospector wrote:

You’re right Max , high real estate prices primarily increases the debt for the middle class and reduces the amount of discretionary spend they have . This has the knock on effect of funnelling the countries wealth into an ever diminishing channels (banks) .

With lower house prices and a wealthier middle class , the discretionary spend is spread further and wider in the economy ,and this creates many many more jobs than would otherwise be there .

Whack UP interest and I can assure you my discretionary spending will increase 🤑

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 May 2020 at 1:51pm
I see reports of people drawing their money out of the banks, fearing that they may get in trouble, and people not entirely trusting the govt deposit guarantee. Certainly interest rates these days do not encourage leaving money in the bank.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 May 2020 at 1:53pm
lol Shrunk... My self funded , retired ( illness) Son is getting a fraction of the pension rate , with his interest income having shrunk so much.
Living off savings awaiting super & other inevitable finances (inheritance)

Several Family members are in the same situation for same reason.
No one is complaining , but you make a very valid point.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shrunk in the Wash Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 May 2020 at 2:42pm
Macca 
I’ve never heard anyone explain to me why, logically, why very low rates are good.

I’m just a layman but to me all it seems to do is drive up housing prices and makes people over extend. 
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Mr Prospector View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mr Prospector Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 May 2020 at 2:44pm
Originally posted by Shrunk in the Wash Shrunk in the Wash wrote:

Originally posted by Mr Prospector Mr Prospector wrote:

You’re right Max , high real estate prices primarily increases the debt for the middle class and reduces the amount of discretionary spend they have . This has the knock on effect of funnelling the countries wealth into an ever diminishing channels (banks) .

With lower house prices and a wealthier middle class , the discretionary spend is spread further and wider in the economy ,and this creates many many more jobs than would otherwise be there .

Whack UP interest and I can assure you my discretionary spending will increase 🤑


Central banks around the world have been trying to do that since 2008 and haven't found a way yet . The Federal reserve put them up in 2017 , and then had to reverse them in just over a year saying that it was a mistake to increase rates .
There are three types of lies - Lies ,Damn Lies and Statistics
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 May 2020 at 2:47pm
It tells you the economy isn't travelling well.

   More a question for Rusty , Doc Max, Pt etc,... Than Dummies like me.
NEVER FORGET,    > DOCTORS < ---
   CAN'T SAVE THEMSELVES.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mr Prospector Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 May 2020 at 3:14pm
I'll join that queue behind you Macca , I dont think anyone knows . 
There are three types of lies - Lies ,Damn Lies and Statistics
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 May 2020 at 3:42pm
Huge sums poured into govt long term bonds, at very low interest, must say something.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rusty nails Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 May 2020 at 3:57pm
Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

It tells you the economy isn't travelling well.

   More a question for Rusty , Doc Max, Pt etc,... Than Dummies like me.
I wouldn’t be expecting a V shaped recovery.
IMO U shape is best case scenario 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 May 2020 at 7:45am
As far as govt debt goes we are still in pretty good shape compared to anyone else with just under 50% debt to GDP, about 120th in the world pre-virus. The predicted loss for us over the next 2 years with about $150 billion debt/year or another 25% of GDP approx.

Japan tops the charts with 248% US 105% Italy 135%, France 98% UK 80% before the virus.
"I have yet to see the book, but it is a book of falsehoods"
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 May 2020 at 7:52am
Educational PT---   if only we could get you onto the winning team.

   You do show some promise.     
NEVER FORGET,    > DOCTORS < ---
   CAN'T SAVE THEMSELVES.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote acacia alba Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 May 2020 at 11:25am
I saw a story on TV , saying how the Chinese are rushing to buy property in Australia, driving prices up, and young locals out of the market.  ( Sort of blows the leadership bluff that China wont deal with Aust if we get too narky ).  Some "expert" was saying it shouldnt be allowed, and instead long term lease to them but dont sell half of Ozz to them.
We were told when we were in Canada the same thing happened there , and even tho they still sell to the Chinese, they tax them big time, especially if they dont actually live in the property.
animals before people.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 May 2020 at 12:33pm
The stop was put in recently for $0 investment in Oz ATM ( I think )
NEVER FORGET,    > DOCTORS < ---
   CAN'T SAVE THEMSELVES.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 May 2020 at 6:36pm
Twitter has sent an email to all employees telling them they can work from home forever. Facebook and Google had extended work at home till the middle of next year. 

More companies, particularly tech may look at this as a full or long term option. By the time lockdown has ended most will be able to assess the pros and cons.

This could have significant implications for inner city commercial property, public transport, car parking, pollution and more. 
"I have yet to see the book, but it is a book of falsehoods"
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Baghdad Bob Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 May 2020 at 6:56pm
PT, in this instance I agree. My wife works as a lawyer for a law firm in the Melbourne CBD, she has been working full time at home since 16th March. Her firm occupy 4 floors in a building in the CBD and if they can convince, into the future, other lawyers to work from home they could possibly only need 3 floors, the savings to the firm will be a windfall.
No doubt investment in  commercial real estate in any CBD will face a price correction.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 May 2020 at 7:35pm
New world Bob.        More than They think , won't re open or arrange alternatives.   Be hard to get many of the lower paid to get off the Gov. Payments --Center-link.
Seasonal Workers will be in short supply.

    Too many Oz bred, didn't like work before the virus. terrible work ethics will be worse.

   I'm becoming negative , aye.
NEVER FORGET,    > DOCTORS < ---
   CAN'T SAVE THEMSELVES.
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