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THE VIRUS & Real Estate - Event Date: 09 May 2020

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maccamax View Drop Down
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    Posted: 09 May 2020 at 10:46am
The Cat is among the Pigeons in the Real Estate world .

Remember , = Anytime is the right time for a bargain.

   Solid Residential will see the strain OK but I fear for areas depending on Tourism etc.
     WHATYA RECKON ?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 May 2020 at 11:20am
Estimates of a drop of 15-30% have been made, but not reflected in what is happening, yet.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 May 2020 at 11:46am
To be expected Max ,In the areas away from solid residential.

The bargains will appear ( Allow when making offers ) in (say) six months ,
When the desperate sales appear --- There will be loads of them .

HUGE numbers of Bank Foreclosures are a certainty eventually .

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 May 2020 at 11:53am
A few years ago, I researched what happened to real estate prices in Australia, during the Depression. I found they held up well for quite a while ( a couple of years) before the slide started. Prices did not recover to the pre-Depression level for many years.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 May 2020 at 1:37pm
The great depression lasted for 10 years , This isn't in that category yet.

Admit the World has a huge price to pay , thanks to China.

Australia didn't have the migrating hordes in those days so we have an advantage today.

The ones that will crash is the battlers struggling for employment & Finding it tough to pay mortgages, in a very competitive place for accommodation.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 May 2020 at 1:46pm
There was a real estate boom in Melbourne in the 1890's, followed by a major recession, and the prices in pounds, ( not adjusted for inflation), did not return to those prices, till the early 1960's. Amazing !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 May 2020 at 2:12pm
Population increases , would be the guide to Real Estate over time .

I had a friend married & migrated to Ireland.   Despite good advice he raced into investment in Real Estate In a Country not competitive by supply & demand .     Now BANKRUPT.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mr Prospector Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 May 2020 at 2:22pm
The world was heading into recession territory pre Covid , and it was predicted last year that the US would be in a technical recession end 2020 . Our own economy was struggling last year as well , and property will follow due to the Covid shutdown probably in six months , and when homeowners mortgages become unmanageable .
People seem to think that if we open up our economies the the virus pandemic has ended . 

Anybody want to book a business trip to Wuhan or holiday to New York . 
There are three types of lies - Lies ,Damn Lies and Statistics
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 May 2020 at 3:24pm
Your being Fis-hetious Mr P. ( Spell check )   have you spare tickets.

Must agree things were slowing.     Too much money being wasted on the BS like Climate Change , Renewables to fill the Turnbull pockets , Yes or NO to the right to Bonk anything that moves etc.

   Any bargain is the right time to buy, I said,    There will be plenty of them , come the next couple of years, with good rental returns.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mr Prospector Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 May 2020 at 4:31pm
Just a touch Face-tious( I had to look that up) . I don't rekon this is a speed bump for the economy but more rough ride downhill for a while .
Those bargains might be bigger in 12 months or even 24 months , but I hope not . 

Happy Birthday BTW , i hope I can get that far Thumbs Up . 
There are three types of lies - Lies ,Damn Lies and Statistics
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 May 2020 at 4:40pm
With air travel off limits and ScoMo saying not to resume for a long time, will there be a selloff of properties acquired by Chinese people for their nearly 2 million kids studying here? 
If you dont test, you have no cases.
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Thank you..    Kind Thought
I just did he blood oxygen test , Finger 96    Toe 86

So my lower half doesn't carry enough of the necessary.

I'll test it again when I go back to Doc's pictures of Melania.

Probably burst the BO machine.
-----------------

24 months is too long for me to wait for capital gain. Past My use by date
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 May 2020 at 5:15pm
The "hangover" from this will last years. All sorts of things will be affected. It surprises me that the stock market is relatively buoyant, they must know the cost will largely not be borne by big business.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mr Prospector Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 May 2020 at 5:21pm
Originally posted by Passing Through Passing Through wrote:

With air travel off limits and ScoMo saying not to resume for a long time, will there be a selloff of properties acquired by Chinese people for their nearly 2 million kids studying here? 

I hadn't thought about that side of housing demand PT , some of those deals would have been approved with the Dodgy Doc Loans as well .
Our economy has been fuelled by immigration for some time now ,  and this will add to the problem .
There are three types of lies - Lies ,Damn Lies and Statistics
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 May 2020 at 5:38pm
Also if the govt hasn't done enough to protect small business there will be a huge number of closures and therefore empty commercial properties. Most of the businesses allowed to stay open were large to medium size. Those suffering most will be small business, mostly in hospitality. A lot of cafes, restaurants bars could close leaving a lot of vacant property. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 May 2020 at 5:40pm
A big shakeout in small business in the hospitality area, might result is those that survive being more viable. Just seems to be too many small businesses depending on the discretionary dollar.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 May 2020 at 5:46pm
I think it will be some time till things return to ''normal'' in hospitality, a huge employer. Who is going to feel comfortable sitting in packed restaurants or bars. It will take a long time for confidence to return, putting pressure on those already struggling. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 May 2020 at 5:49pm
Amazing tho PT.    Always seems to be some fool to re open these empty shops and continue outside of the Coles mega stores.   No hope of competing of course.
Recent,    Fruit , Baker, Butcher have tried , within 20 meters at my local shopping center Coles.
Big Mal was one of the failures there , about 3 back. Suicide business.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 May 2020 at 6:03pm
How would you be travelling if you'd bought a franchise off huge franchiser RFG?  Most who did couldn't make a dollar even in the good times due to alleged misinformation in the franchise documents?  Ouch
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 May 2020 at 6:06pm
What franchise(s) are you referring to, SC ?
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Originally posted by max manewer max manewer wrote:

The "hangover" from this will last years. All sorts of things will be affected. It surprises me that the stock market is relatively buoyant, they must know the cost will largely not be borne by big business.


Opinion piece by Paul Krugman dealing with the disconnect between stock market and the broader economy.

Obviously based on US but could apply here



Edited by horlicks - 09 May 2020 at 6:19pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 May 2020 at 6:29pm
This week's Planet Money from NPR explains the function of the FED and particularly the part it has played in stabilizing market confidence in this COVID pandemic..

If you dont test, you have no cases.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 May 2020 at 6:33pm
Interesting , Horlicks, and I guess the answer is that yield is virtually non-existent in many other places where people can park their money.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 May 2020 at 6:47pm
I still think there was something of a slow-down afoot before this virus hit, the warning was solid money flowing to long term bonds with minimal yield, that did not portend well really.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 May 2020 at 12:25am
The property market is being artificially propped up by the Job Keeper/Seeker (welfare) + low interest rates + the banks offering 6 months payment moratoriums to anyone who claims to be financially affected by the virus.

Low property turnover for as long as those conditions apply, and then as those support structures are wound back, it will be a buyer's market, and a short term 15-20% drop in prices from where we are now would be a reasonable expectation - it will depend on how our economy has come out of the shut down.

On face value, we are looking like being ahead of most economies, so we may not be too badly off.

A massive slowdown in immigration will be against the property market, but this will be mostly offset by the drop in new development anyway.

Australia will once again be a major migration target, so this will all be ancient history within 3 years ... and with ScoMo at the helm with a strong majority, wealth and prosperity here we come again!



 
In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 May 2020 at 7:10am
A positive read Doc , well put.

   While ever productive Migrants are chosen , The future will always kick.
Nothing like Demand being created ,   & Reminders like    The Snowy".
Unfortunately we lost the plot after the skilled and experienced people came, following WW2 and turned this isolated Island into prosperity.


   Followed by African Gangs , Terrorists etc.     . Have we learnt yet?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mr Prospector Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 May 2020 at 8:17am
Originally posted by Passing Through Passing Through wrote:

This week's Planet Money from NPR explains the function of the FED and particularly the part it has played in stabilizing market confidence in this COVID pandemic..




Those podcasts are always a good listen . The fed has been buying uncollateralised junk during this crisis , and that has some economists shaking their heads .
The supposed greatest investor Warren Buffett from Berkshire Hathaway had the AGM recently and he and his offsider Charlie Munger (who I think is 94 , hope for us all) are both saying they have no idea where this is going .
In 2008 they opened the purse strings and bought banks and large companies at bargain prices . So far this time , Berkshire Hathaway who has a huge cash reserve has done nothing and believe they may need to prop up their current investments rather than reinvest .
The message they are sending is they are worried .
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mr Prospector Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 May 2020 at 8:24am
Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

A positive read Doc , well put.

   While ever productive Migrants are chosen , The future will always kick.
Nothing like Demand being created ,   & Reminders like    The Snowy".
Unfortunately we lost the plot after the skilled and experienced people came, following WW2 and turned this isolated Island into prosperity.


   Followed by African Gangs , Terrorists etc.     . Have we learnt yet?


I’ve never been a fan of a housing driven economy Macca . I don’t believe it builds a stronger economy , just a bubble .
I think we need to build more export facing businesses that the world wants . Companies like those started by Melanie Perkins . .
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 May 2020 at 8:34am
Originally posted by Mr Prospector Mr Prospector wrote:

Originally posted by Passing Through Passing Through wrote:

This week's Planet Money from NPR explains the function of the FED and particularly the part it has played in stabilizing market confidence in this COVID pandemic..




Those podcasts are always a good listen . The fed has been buying uncollateralised junk during this crisis , and that has some economists shaking their heads .
The supposed greatest investor Warren Buffett from Berkshire Hathaway had the AGM recently and he and his offsider Charlie Munger (who I think is 94 , hope for us all) are both saying they have no idea where this is going .
In 2008 they opened the purse strings and bought banks and large companies at bargain prices . So far this time , Berkshire Hathaway who has a huge cash reserve has done nothing and believe they may need to prop up their current investments rather than reinvest .
The message they are sending is they are worried .

This time the Trump Administration has amalgamated the FED into Treasury to give them control over this process. What could possibly go wrong?
Clue: references in that pod of the highly unusual new practice of the FED getting involved in business loan approvals or rejections.
If you dont test, you have no cases.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mr Prospector Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 May 2020 at 8:52am
Deutsche Bank and Donald Trump is worth a google . There’s a business that needs refinancing .
There are three types of lies - Lies ,Damn Lies and Statistics
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