The Liberal Party - can they survive? - Thoroughbred Horse Racing and Breeding Forums

With LNP voting trends showing the party in free fall, can they turn this around?

19 of the last 20 state and federal elections since 2014, the LNP lost ground by an average of 12%.

They now hold Tasmania by one seat, NSW is in minority and all other govts are majority Labor.

Good thread PT. Finally someone with a bit of initiative.

Well you would want to hope they can - considering they had a higher primary vote than your ALP at the last election. And that was considered a disaster for them.

I thing the LNP's best chance going forward is a period were the Federal & every State Govt is ALP. That will ensure no easy passing of the buck when the inevitable disaster hits. Hopefully the Greens will be mixed up with it as well (obvious - bed buddies)

So that would be my preferred outcome - even as a swinging voter

Refer ALP Election Promises

Heavy sigh.

Someone explain to 1,1 how votes are counted in Australia…….

One by one I'm guessing Rusty LOL

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& Clive & Pauline as well

Your being a bit cheeky here PT

Refer ALP Election Promises

No, 35.7% collectively

oneonesit wrote:

Passing Through wrote:

oneone the Liberal Party had a primary vote of 23.89% by themselves. If you add in the Nats they collectively polled 35.7%. Labor had 32.58% with Greens added in 44.83%

I thought the Teal's were more LNP than ALP as a rule of thumb ? Surely they go into the cons side.

When ALL of them were opposing Liberal incumbents.

To vote for them, you were voting AGAINST the Liberal party….

Teal Independents preferenced LNP last across the board.

Lost 19 seats. Ooof, that's a paddlin'

Time is a flat circle

& make sure you pull your pants up before you leave !

I'd say the same too you as well JJ - if you were wearing any LOL

Refer ALP Election Promises

Would seems Maths is

Logic Rusty - something your not endowed with. PT was attempting to claim the ALP + The Greens as a left result. Is it not reasonable to take the rest as the right.

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Rusty I have heard of the term “bucket chemistry” - I think you have just introduced me too the term “bucket maths” !

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scamanda Champion Joined: 11 Oct 2008 Location: The Manor Status: Offline Points: 16246	Post Options Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: 19 May 2019 at 7:50pm
	The Coalition scraped in, and Labor were only a bee's dick off winning some close seats. Next election with a leader that the country can trust might see Labor steamroll into government. Posted by the legendry Scamanda !

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Posted: 20 May 2019 at 11:26am

oneonesit wrote:

Hey Rusty - just a statistics question for you. PT forecast an ALP win - & at least a 10 year reign after that. So now the LNP got up - & are more than likely to keep the top job for the same 10 years - is it fair to say PT is out by 23 years ? More importantly, is that figure within the margin of error on a bell distribution curve within 2 standard deviations of certainty ?

Garbage in, garbage out.

The problem with your theory,is that the electorate has already established the front bench is either despicable or incompetent.
This time they chose the devil they knew,rather than risk change.

In 3 years time, no one will be listening to Scomo’s spin, debt will have continued to blow out, and the ALP will be a small target.

You can never claim i am not a very reasonable man Rusty. This was of your better efforts !

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Given most voters under 27 years of age, around 10% of Australia 's population, and have never lived under an ALP government I believe they thought it was about time for a change of government for change only... the Liberals were stale and out of fashion. Gough Whitlam got into government for the same reason all those years ago, in fact his election campaign was based on the slogan "It's Time ".

Once the ALP has bedded down all its policies, especially its climate change agenda, and manages to win one or two terms it will be of interest of how those "under 27s of 2022 ", will vote in three or six years time. Could they have second thoughts ? Afterall the Whitlam government , which promised the world ,and was dismissed by Kerr, was wiped out in the following election.