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The Liberal Party - can they survive?

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Passing Through View Drop Down
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    Posted: 23 Jun 2022 at 11:13am
With LNP voting trends showing the party in free fall, can they turn this around?

19 of the last 20 state and federal elections since 2014, the LNP lost ground by an average of 12%.

They now hold Tasmania by one seat, NSW is in minority and all other govts are majority Labor.
2022 year of the Independent.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2022 at 11:52am
Not whilst they are the domain of the far right and extreme hateful individuals.

If you are anti abortion, anti gay, anti immigration, anti almost anything you almost certain to find leadership in the Liberal Party.

Why are they called the Liberal Party when there is nothing liberal about them ?




reductio ad absurdum



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2022 at 11:53am
Good thread PT. Finally someone with a bit of initiative.

Well you would want to hope they can - considering they had a higher primary vote than your ALP at the last election. And that was considered a disaster for them.

I thing the LNP's best chance going forward is a period were the Federal & every State Govt is ALP. That will ensure no easy passing of the buck when the inevitable disaster hits. Hopefully the Greens will be mixed up with it as well (obvious - bed buddies)

So that would be my preferred outcome - even as a swinging voter
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2022 at 11:58am
Good question djebel. They became the Liberal Party when Menzies formed it as a center right party in 1946 as a response to the governing United Australia Party(not Clive) lurching too far right in the pre and during war period. It changed when Howard declared he would be the most right wing leader ever in Australia. It has progressed from there moving progressively further right while losing voters doing it.
2022 year of the Independent.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rusty nails Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2022 at 11:58am
Heavy sigh.

Someone explain to 1,1 how votes are counted in Australia…….
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2022 at 12:01pm
oneone the Liberal Party had a primary vote of 23.89% by themselves. If you add in the Nats they collectively polled 35.7%. Labor had 32.58% with Greens added in 44.83%
2022 year of the Independent.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2022 at 12:03pm
One by one I'm guessing Rusty LOL
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2022 at 12:04pm
Originally posted by Passing Through Passing Through wrote:

oneone the Liberal Party had a primary vote of 23.89% by themselves. If you add in the Nats they collectively polled 35.7%. Labor had 32.58% with Greens added in 44.83%
I thought the Teal's were more LNP than ALP as a rule of thumb ? Surely they go into the cons side.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2022 at 12:05pm
& Clive & Pauline as well

Your being a bit cheeky here PT
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2022 at 12:07pm
Originally posted by Passing Through Passing Through wrote:

oneone the Liberal Party had a primary vote of 23.89% by themselves. If you add in the Nats they collectively polled 35.7%. Labor had 32.58% with Greens added in 44.83%
So that's 55.17% conservative
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2022 at 12:08pm
No, 35.7% collectively
2022 year of the Independent.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2022 at 12:09pm
2022 year of the Independent.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rusty nails Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2022 at 12:53pm
Originally posted by oneonesit oneonesit wrote:

Originally posted by Passing Through Passing Through wrote:

oneone the Liberal Party had a primary vote of 23.89% by themselves. If you add in the Nats they collectively polled 35.7%. Labor had 32.58% with Greens added in 44.83%
I thought the Teal's were more LNP than ALP as a rule of thumb ? Surely they go into the cons side.
When ALL of them were opposing Liberal incumbents.
To vote for them, you were voting AGAINST the Liberal party….
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rusty nails Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2022 at 12:55pm
Originally posted by oneonesit oneonesit wrote:

Originally posted by Passing Through Passing Through wrote:

oneone the Liberal Party had a primary vote of 23.89% by themselves. If you add in the Nats they collectively polled 35.7%. Labor had 32.58% with Greens added in 44.83%
So that's 55.17% conservative
Maths ehLOL
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2022 at 1:00pm
Teal Independents preferenced LNP last across the board.
2022 year of the Independent.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jujuno Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2022 at 1:17pm
Originally posted by rusty nails rusty nails wrote:

Originally posted by oneonesit oneonesit wrote:

Originally posted by Passing Through Passing Through wrote:

oneone the Liberal Party had a primary vote of 23.89% by themselves. If you add in the Nats they collectively polled 35.7%. Labor had 32.58% with Greens added in 44.83%
So that's 55.17% conservative
Maths ehLOL

 Buy the poor boy a calculator...and a book on logic...

 LOLWink
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote TJMitchell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2022 at 1:24pm
Lost 19 seats. Ooof, that's a paddlin'
I wish I had a sig
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2022 at 2:10pm
Originally posted by rusty nails rusty nails wrote:

Originally posted by oneonesit oneonesit wrote:

Originally posted by Passing Through Passing Through wrote:

oneone the Liberal Party had a primary vote of 23.89% by themselves. If you add in the Nats they collectively polled 35.7%. Labor had 32.58% with Greens added in 44.83%
So that's 55.17% conservative
Maths ehLOL
So what do you get when you subtract 44.83% from 100% Rusty ? Confused
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2022 at 2:14pm
& make sure you pull your pants up before you leave !

I'd say the same too you as well JJ - if you were wearing any LOL
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rusty nails Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2022 at 2:34pm
Originally posted by oneonesit oneonesit wrote:

Originally posted by rusty nails rusty nails wrote:

Originally posted by oneonesit oneonesit wrote:

Originally posted by Passing Through Passing Through wrote:

oneone the Liberal Party had a primary vote of 23.89% by themselves. If you add in the Nats they collectively polled 35.7%. Labor had 32.58% with Greens added in 44.83%
So that's 55.17% conservative
Maths ehLOL
So what do you get when you subtract 44.83% from 100% Rusty ? Confused
Oh dear, logic is not your friend, is itWink

FYI, a PRIMARY vote for anyone, other than ALP or Greens, is not a vote for conservatives….
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2022 at 2:39pm
Would seems Maths is

Logic Rusty - something your not endowed with. PT was attempting to claim the ALP + The Greens as a left result. Is it not reasonable to take the rest as the right. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rusty nails Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2022 at 2:51pm
Clearly not!
As I said previously 7 teal seats were won in direct opposition to the sitting liberals.
Everyone of those votes was AGAINST the liberal party.

I’d also suggest that any votes for Palmer and One Notion are effectively informal votes.
That leaves coalition with 2/3 of 3/5s of fvck all
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2022 at 3:25pm
Rusty I have heard of the term “bucket chemistry” - I think you have just introduced me too the term “bucket maths” !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2022 at 3:30pm
Cant get much clearer than ''put Liberals last'' and get rid of them.
2022 year of the Independent.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 May 2019 at 7:50pm
The Coalition scraped in, and Labor were only a bee's dick off winning some close seats.

Next election with a leader that the country can trust might see Labor steamroll into government.


Posted by the legendry Scamanda !
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Voting for a candidate who’s preferences the liberals last is a conservative vote? I’ve heard it all now!

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 May 2019 at 11:26am
Originally posted by oneonesit oneonesit wrote:

Hey Rusty - just a statistics question for you. PT forecast an ALP win - & at least a 10 year reign after that. So now the LNP got up - & are more than likely to keep the top job for the same 10 years - is it fair to say PT is out by 23 years ? More importantly, is that figure within the margin of error on a bell distribution curve within 2 standard deviations of certainty ?

Garbage in, garbage out.

The problem with your theory,is that the electorate has already established the front bench is either despicable or incompetent.
This time they chose the devil they knew,rather than risk change.

In 3 years time, no one will be listening to Scomo’s spin, debt will have continued to blow out, and the ALP will be a small target.


You can never claim i am not a very reasonable man Rusty. This was of your better efforts !

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jujuno Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2022 at 6:00pm
Perrottet was sounding sane, five days ago. He nearly had me back in the fold.

 Then today, 'let it rip' reappeared...and Chris Minns once again looks the better option.

 I think Mr Perrottet has a problem similar to Jordon De Goey....and I'm not talking about ADHD...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Baghdad Bob Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2022 at 6:29pm
Given most voters under 27 years of age, around 10% of Australia 's population, and have never lived under an ALP government I believe they thought it was about time for a change of government for change only... the Liberals were stale and out of fashion. Gough Whitlam got into government for the same reason all those years ago, in fact his election campaign was based on the slogan "It's Time ". 

Once the ALP has bedded down all its policies, especially its climate change agenda, and manages to win one or two terms it will be of interest of how those  "under 27s of 2022 ", will vote in three or six years time. Could they have second thoughts ? Afterall the Whitlam government , which promised the world ,and was dismissed by Kerr, was wiped out in the following election.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jujuno Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2022 at 6:42pm
 Whitlam was a different breed to Albo...totally bombastic, full of himself.

 I cheered when Kerr had his parliament dissolved.  

 If you compare the two, Bob, you really don't understand how life and politics have evolved.

 

 
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