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Epsom Derby 2021 & 2023

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    Posted: 29 May 2021 at 12:14am

The Derby deserves a good winner: What are the chances it will get one?

Mac Swiney has a short head to spare over Classic-winning stablemate Poetic Flare in the Irish 2000 Guineas at the Curragh last weekend. Jim Bolger�s colt is a key runner at Epsom next Saturday (June 5). Photo: Healy/focusonracing.com

It has not been a good decade for the Derby. The last ten winners have included four horses who have met the race�s long-term historical status, but others who won ordinary renewals, benefitted from the run of the race or did not progress.

The TRC Race Ratings computer has no fear or favour, no bias to the past and does not get caught up in the hype as humans can. It merely operates a network of tens of millions of equations which the results of races describe. And, by finding the set of ratings that comes closest to a perfect solution, it assigns merit to the winners of every Group and Graded race run under IFHA standards, plus a select number of others that we deem worthy of a similar status.

Incidentally, it is our view at Thoroughbred Racing Commentary that the sport needs to do a better job at getting performance ratings out there. We live in a world where it is no good publishing figures days, weeks and months after the race � the moment has gone. Performance ratings need to accompany the official reportage of the race.

Computers can make the calculations seconds after a race is run, and even be relied on to flash the rating up on the television screen before the horses have even completed their run-out.

As the season rolls on and more evidence accumulates as to what form is worth, ratings should change to continually find the best solution to the gigantic set of equations: Each race impacts every other one to which it is connected by a chain of common horses. It is time for human handicappers to accept they cannot compete with machines at what is purely an optimisation exercise and to concentrate their efforts to building better algorithms to perform the calculations.

When the TRC computer performs this optimisation technique, here are the performance ratings of the last ten winners of the Derby on the big day at Epsom:

TRC Computer Race Ratings of the last ten winners of the G1 Derby at Epsom arranged by descending merit

TRC Computer Race Ratings of the last ten winners of the G1 Derby at Epsom arranged by descending merit

The box around the ratings achieved by Pour Moi in 2011 and Wings Of Eagles in 2017 describes the modern-day median of the Derby winner of 119/120. This would not have been good enough on average 30 years ago, but the race has fallen back a peg or two. Part of this is a random effect, but there is no doubt that some is down to the fact that top-tier middle-distance talent is in fewer hands, which is not good for competition.

This year there is a good chance of a winner to buck the trend.

Yes, trainers Aidan O�Brien and Charlie Appleby, who benefit from the powerful breeding empires of Coolmore and Godolphin, have a number of key runners each, but in opposition are just one or two more credible contenders than has been the case, headed by Mac Swiney.

The dual G1 winner heads TRC Computer Race Ratings on a figure of 119 for his Irish 2000 Guineas success last time out. The TRC algorithm doesn�t much care about the labels on the race (unless, in the very rare cases at G1 level there are sparse connections to other results in the database) but is impressed by what this race suggests is Mac Swiney�s place in the hierarchy of global talent: The Jim Bolger-trained colt beat his stablemate Poetic Flare, who was previously the winner of the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket. And that last race was replete with horses who represented the form of the major 2-year-old races, spreading its influence still further.

Mac Swiney has to prove he stays a mile and a half, but there is an interesting way to view his form. Here are his Group-race performances, arranged in descending order of merit:

Group races contended by Mac Swiney arranged in descending order of merit and grouped by going conditions. Click on the chart to enlarge it

Group races contended by Mac Swiney arranged in descending order of merit and grouped by going conditions. Click on the chart to enlarge it

Mac Swiney has put up his best efforts on a soft surface and his worse efforts on drier ground. It could be, therefore, that he needs soft conditions to perform. It is also possible, however, that it suits him when soft conditions slow down the pace of the race. He did not appear to be beaten because of stamina when 6� lengths fourth to Bolshoi Ballet in the G3 Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial at Leopardstown. Let�s see where the computer rates that winner and the other main Derby contenders in relation to Mac Swiney:

Click on the chart to enlarge it

Click on the chart to enlarge it

Bolshoi Ballet earned a TRC Computer Race Rating of 118 for his demolition of Mac Swiney and the others in the Derby Trial. He was rated TRC 115 for his previous victory in the G3 Ballysax Stakes. But there has to be a great deal of uncertainty surrounding this rating � on both sides.

Bolshoi Ballet has seemed to improve a good deal on his 2-year-old form, which included a comprehensive defeat by Gear Up and others in the G1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud in the mud at the end of his 2-year-old season. That anchors his numbers this year to some extent, otherwise the TRC Computer might have rated his form this year even higher. It is a matter of finding the sweet spot, which, technically speaking now, is the rating that maximises the probability of estimating his true performance merit in this piece of form. 

Interestingly, Bolshoi Ballet�s rating of 118 is just 1pt less than the standard required to win the Derby in a year typical of the last decade � that 119/120 thing again. But there is a lot of variance around what the computer could have rated Bolshoi Ballet in the Derby Trial � and another question of how he will perform in the Derby.

Because the TRC computer uses what is called a Bayesian model, it doesn�t �think� of performances as representing one single figure (though we express it that way for ease of understanding) but instead as a range of possible values. And, if you think of this array in the Derby as a probability distribution over how he will perform, then a lot of the mass is over ratings 119 and above. In other words, the computer is saying he is one of the more likely winners:

But, a similar graph for all the Derby runners would also have at least some mass to the right of the red, vertical line. For the runners more lightly raced than Bolshoi Ballet, the curve (which is �normal� shaped because we normalise distances back from the winner before rating races) would be even wider and less peaked, indicating more uncertainty.

This way, the probability that, say, El Drama or Third Realm wins the Derby is seen by the computer as similar to the chance of Van Gogh winning, even though the latter is rated 4pts higher on TRC 115 (for his G1 Criterium International win) compared to their TRC 111 (for winning the Dee Stakes and the Lingfield Derby Trial respectively which were run as listed races but we graded G3). Van Gogh has simply had more opportunity to earn a higher rating than the other pair.

We would like to be able to specify different shaped curves for different trainers, for it seems likely that High Definition could improve a lot for his G2 Dante Stakes third to Hurricane Lane, if he follows the pattern of many an Aidan O�Brien-trained colt. But we are not at that level of sophistication yet and the exercise is left to the reader�s experience, for now.

Another possible big improver from the Dante is Gear Up, the aforementioned G1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud winner. He is best when forcing the pace and was ridden back at York before keeping on. It is a point beyond the scope of our data, but trainer Mark Johnston�s horses experience a variety of outcomes at York for whatever reason, especially when the ground is on the soft side. Ante-post odds of 33/1 about Gear Up are interesting.

Other big improvers are John Leeper and Mohaafeth. Both these horses qualified for a TRC rating because we upgraded listed races to G3 and included them in our database. John Leeper won the slowly-run Fairway Stakes at Newmarket and had scant opportunity to engage his big, powerful stride to the full. For his part, Mohaafeth hacked up in the Newmarket Stakes and could be anything.

Charlie Appleby trains two fringe contenders who add ballast to this fascinating renewal in One Ruler and Adayar. The former won last year�s G3 Autumn Stakes and was well backed before disappointing in the 2000 Guineas, while the latter is a tremendous physical specimen and may have got bogged down when second to Third Realm in the muddy Lingfield Derby Trial.

In summary, we cannot split Mac Swiney and Bolshoi Ballet in the Derby, as this week�s Horse Rankings aptly show:

Click on the chart to enlarge it

Click on the chart to enlarge it

Will another horse take a step forward and beat them both, exceeding the 119/120 level? The Derby deserves a good winner.

James Willoughby  |  MAY 28, 2021




Edited by Gay3 - 04 Jun 2023 at 1:19pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Take2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 May 2021 at 2:20am
i am surprised that the above doesn't mention Van Gogh  more than fleetingly, Djebel, and has seemed to have settled on Bolshoi ballet and Mac Swiney
Van Gogh has been equally as impressive as those two, in winning the Criterium International G1 in October last Year over the 1600m, a race won by the likes of Royal Meeting (2018), Thunder Snow (2016), Johannes Vermeer (2015), Ectot (2013), Roderic O'Connor (2010), Jan Vermeer (2009), Mount Nelson (2006), Bago (2003) and Dalakhani, fr Derby.
change is simply a destination on a journey reached by taking the first step (i said that) lol

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jun 2021 at 9:33pm
Youth Spirit, 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jun 2021 at 9:35pm
Adayar, Third Realm.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jun 2021 at 9:39pm
Hurricane Lane, Gear Up.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jun 2021 at 9:41pm
John Leeper.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jun 2021 at 9:44pm
Mac Swiney

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jun 2021 at 9:48pm
Mohaafeth.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jun 2021 at 9:50pm
Bolshoi Ballet, Southern Lights. 



Edited by djebel - 03 Jun 2021 at 9:51pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jun 2021 at 9:57pm
One Ruler

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Take2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Jun 2021 at 9:05pm
I have settled on Bolshoi Ballet-Third Realm-Southern lights-Mac Swiney
Bolshoi Ballet to win from the others in no particular order to fill the minors
Wonder if we will see a runaway like Serpentine 2020 this edition?
change is simply a destination on a journey reached by taking the first step (i said that) lol

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Jun 2021 at 9:12pm
Appears to be an ordinary edition.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Jun 2021 at 9:23pm
I think it is bordering on outstanding. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Jun 2021 at 11:51am
Well coming from djebel as it is the above comment certainly proves my case!  Big smile


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jamal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Jun 2021 at 1:12pm
Originally posted by Second Chance Second Chance wrote:

Appears to be an ordinary edition.

I agree. The field wasn't strong but the winner ran good time
Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jamal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Jun 2021 at 1:13pm
Im referring to Oaks winner thats is 
Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shrunk in the Wash Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jun 2021 at 11:14am
What a great ride from a Ryan Moore????????
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Take2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jun 2021 at 12:02pm
Adayer's win was very similar to Snowfall in the Oaks, a big gap between the winner and the others, conditions vastly different though misty dreary day for the Oaks and clear sunny day for the Derby
change is simply a destination on a journey reached by taking the first step (i said that) lol

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jun 2021 at 5:51pm
Originally posted by Second Chance Second Chance wrote:

Appears to be an ordinary edition.

Prior to the running of the race:

The winner had one solitary placing at Stakes level (at Gp 3 level)
The runner-up was a maiden with no Stakes performances whatsoever
The third place-getter had one Stakes performance, winning at Gp 2 level.

Hardly suggests it was a stellar edition.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2021 at 9:23pm
Simon Rowlandss imageSimon Rowlands
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Jun 2023 at 1:18pm

Auguste Rodin has won the 2023 Epsom Derby for trainer Aidan O'Brien after a stunning finale to the historic race.

King Of Steel, a 66-1 outsider had taken over on the final straight but 9-2 shot Auguste Rodin fought back at the last to claim victory for jockey Ryan Moore and a ninth success in the Derby for O'Brien.

White Birch claimed third after coming from a long way back but there was to be no fitting finale for Frankie Dettori, who had gone into the race as favourite on Arrest but finished 10th.

The race had been under threat from Animal Rights activists but Surrey Police confirmed on Saturday morning that 19 arrests had been made for plans for disruption. One protestor did manage to avoid a heavy police presence to make his way onto the track shortly after it had began but was immediately tackled to the ground.

Auguste Rodin had gone off as favourite in last month's 2000 Guineas but disappointed, only to bounce back to his best at Epsom.

On the historic win, O'Brien said: "It is great credit to everyone, there are so many people responsible for this happening. He is a total home-bred horse.

"He came with a massive reputation and he is totally unique. Ryan admitted he probably didn't suit him but he is so exciting for us."


"Newmarket was one of those days when it all went wrong. The lads always had the plan to do the Triple Crown but he came out of the Guineas well and we've been more and more confident with every day."

Jockey Ryan Moore said after the race: “We had a smooth run and landed in a nice spot and I was always confident I had them covered. They didn’t op that quick and turned into a bit of a dash. He’s the only man that could get him there. Aidan can do things [others can’t]. We’ve always had a lot of belief in him.”

Epsom Derby 2023 result

1st - Auguste Rodin - 9-2

2nd - King Of Steel - 66-1

3rd - White Birch - 12-1

4th - Sprewell - 14-1

5th - The Foxes - 7-1

6th - Waipiro - 25-1

7th - Artistic Star - 22-1

8th - Adelaide River - 33-1

9th - Dubai Mile - 25-1

10th - Arrest - 4-1 F

11th - San Antonio - 18-1

12th - Passenger - 8-1

13th - Dear My Friend - 100-1

14th - Military Order - 9-2

Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Jun 2023 at 7:25pm

Blueblood Deep Impact Colt Wins Epsom Derby for Coolmore

Tara Madgwick - Sunday June 4

Coolmore sent a number of their best mares to Japan to visit champion sire Deep Impact before his passing in 2019 and the exercise has produced Epsom Oaks winner Snowfall, Newmarket 2000 Guineas winner Saxon Warrior, French Oaks winner Fancy Blue and now the best of them all an Epsom Derby winner in Auguste Rodin.

Trained by Aidan O’Brien and ridden by Ryan Moore, Auguste Rodin has been bred and trained to win this race since he was conceived, but a below par run when he resumed with an unplaced effort in the Group I Newmarket 2000 Guineas raised doubt.

Last season at two he started four times for three wins and a second culminating in winning the Group I Doncaster Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes, so the Guineas failure came as a shock, however connections regrouped and kept faith in their colt with happy results all round in the Derby.

The Roger Varian trained Wootton Bassett colt King of Steel was having his first run for this year and ran the race of his life. He hit the front and looked the winner until Ryan Moore got to work on Auguste Rodin, who hunted down his rival to win by a half a length with nearly five lengths back to the rest.

“Auguste Rodin is totally unique, he's out of one of the greatest Galileo mares and by the greatest stallion ever in Japan, he's totally unique.  I think he’s the most important horse we’ve ever had because he’s bringing the two continents [Europe and Asia] together, and it’s not fake ability, it’s pure ability, so I think it is so exciting,” said Aidan O’Brien.

"He was very special as a two-year-old. His movement was so good; spectacular. He's got an unbelievable, economical way of going, but his movement is incredible. It's very different and we always felt he was the most special horse we've had in Ballydoyle.”

Ryan Moore has ridden Auguste Rodin in five of his six starts and was full of praise.

“He got the trip very well and he was very comfortable throughout the race," said Moore.

"I felt like he was doing it easy. He always felt like he was going beautifully and I think this quicker ground was a big help to him."

The Group I Irish Derby is the likely next assignment for Auguste Rodin, who is the first winner for Galileo’s Champion 2YO Filly and Older Female Miler Filly and triple Group I winner Rhododendron.

A full sister to seven time Group I winner Magical from Group I winning Pivotal mare Halfway to Heaven, this is an exceptional family that has also produced Group I winners Photo Call and Victoria Road, who is by Deep Impact stallion Saxon Warrior.

Auguste Rodin is the 59th Group I winner for Deep Impact and is his third G1 winner among seven stakes-winners bred from daughters of Galileo. The nick has produced 29 winners from 41 runners, so 70% winner to runner and 17% SW to runner.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote diomed Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Jun 2023 at 9:36pm
I posted this on another forum this morning.

Did anyone notice the Derby winner Auguste Rodin was drawn in stall 10?
From the introduction of the 10 horse stall machines at Epsom in 1967 (York uses 20 horse stalls; Longchamp uses 14 horse stalls) the Derby winner has come out of stall 10 eleven times, but how often has the winner come out of stall 11? 
The answer is nil.

I will reduce the stalls 10 victory number from 11 to 10 because in 2013 the starter filled the two stalls machines differently with six horses in each. 

From 1967 to 2010 (44 years) stall 10 had the winner 8 times (18.2%). 

Starting with 2011 it has been stalls bingo.
They publish the draw but then the starter fills the two stalls machines as he pleases.
Traditionally stalls machine 1 was tight to the inside rail and was filled with horses drawn 1 to 10 starting from the inside rail (the infield), with the remainder going into stalls machine 2. 

In 2011; 2013; 2015; 2016; 2017; 2020 they spilt the field almost equally between the two machines, but in 2018 they did the reverse of the traditional with 2 horses in 1, and 10 horses in 2. 

What about years 2014; 2021; 2022; 2023 when they reverted to the traditional filling routine: 1 to 10 in machine 1 and the remainder in machine 2?
2014: Our Channell 50/1 (drawn 10) was 13th; 2019: Norway 33/1 (drawn 10) was 8th; 2021: Mojo Star 50/1 (drawn 10) was 2nd; 2022 Glory Daze 66/1 (drawn 10) was 14th; 2023 Auguste Rodin (drawn 10) 9/2 was 1st. 

It is hard to believe but it is true that in 51 years where the stalls were filled 1-10 machine 1 and the rest in machine 2 a horse drawn 11 has never won.
Why? 
He gets cut off by the large group drawn 1 to 10 who immediately make for the outer rail. 
Stall 11 is shuffled to the back of the field, often with stall 12 (2 winners) and stall 13 (2 winners). 

One horse drawn 11 came close, Dragon Dancer in 2006, but his jockey rushed him out of the stalls to avoid being cut off by the horses drawn 1 to 10. Who won in 2006? Sir Percy, the horse drawn in 10. 

Horses drawn 10 who did NOT win started at these odds: 
66/1; 50/1; 50/1; 25/1; 200/1; 50/1; 200/1; 500/1; 40/1; 66/1; 20/1; 100/1; 40/1 and as mentioned above these from the last few years 50/1; 33/1; 50/1 (2nd); 66/1

17 high priced horses came from stall 10 in 51 years with little chance but of the contenders from stall 10 the number of winners was 10 from 34 = 29.4%.

Should Epsom put their hand in their pocket and buy new stalls?
They paid 150k this week for extra security.

I sent an e-mail to the British Horseracing Authority many years ago pointing out the unfairness of the 10 runner stalls at Epsom.
The response was as expected.  No reply.

From that time they moved the two stalls machines from the inside rail (the infield) to the middle of the track, and split the field in two, half in each machine.
Now they appear to be reverting to the old method.

Any clear thinking person would realise the problem is the 10 horse starting stalls.
Horses are herd animals.  When a herd of 10 horses rush to the outside rail the smaller herd of 4, 5, or 6 give way and are shuffled behind the bigger herd.

The great race is run by people who thought letting off dozens of fireworks just before the start in 2022 was a good idea.



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Carioca Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Jun 2023 at 12:01am
LOLLOL , luv ya posts mate , bit of research there . Wink
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote diomed Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Jun 2023 at 12:31am
i just like a good moan. Disapprove
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote diomed Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Jun 2023 at 12:36am
Headline on the Racing Post website
Epsom Dash branded a 'farce' after four stalls open late and stewards take no action
The dash is a 5f downhill sprint, supposded to be the fastest 5f in the world.

Those Epsom stalls again. Ermm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Carioca Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Jun 2023 at 2:23pm
Originally posted by diomed diomed wrote:

i just like a good moan. Disapprove
A good moan doesn't hurt diomed Wink if it awakens the eyes of others who may have missed the circumstances of " letting go " Smile , if it's factual and makes sense , maintain , I say . 👍🍺
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djebel View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Jun 2023 at 4:52pm
reductio ad absurdum
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Carioca Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Jun 2023 at 6:42pm
Most unusual Derby start , the inside section head to the outside fence , then swing back to the inside and those drawn wide cop the backwash Ouch , Detorri 3 wide no cover , Moore 6or7 pairs back with plenty of cover Wink 2nd horse very game all things considered , as the winner was hailed as " something special " .
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Jun 2023 at 7:02pm
Will cop flack but imo doubt this edition of 3yo's will ever go down in the annals.

As for the winner, he won the Gp2 Champions Juvenile Stakes at 2.  Sounds great but it was just a five horse field with no less than four starters trained by O'Brien.  And run in a truly pedestrian 1.45 for the mile: might just as well have been an inter-stable gallop over the downs.

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