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Surprise Baby

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Tlazolteotl View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Nov 2020 at 10:12am
Bit of a myth isn't he? I look in the form to see if I can figure out what all the fuss has been about but I never find it.
An honest politician is one who when he is bought will stay bought.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote acacia alba Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Nov 2020 at 10:44am
Makes you think what a waste of horse.  Holding him back for the MC when he could have prolly run and won in some other races.  
animals before people.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Lord Hybrow Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Nov 2020 at 10:56am
Hell be running in the Sandown Classic on SAturday, surely?

Connections wasted 2020 autumn, they can ill afford to have a wasted 2020 Spring.

The Sandown Classic is a good opportunity to salvage something for the campaign.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jamal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Nov 2020 at 12:07pm
Maybe all of us (or most of us) fell for the hype for Surprise Baby because at the end of the day Surprise Baby's only stakes wins have been the 2019 Group 2 Adelaide Cup (3200m) and 2019 Group 3 The Bart Cummings (2500m).

Maybe the hype was warranted, maybe not. I just think that perhaps he is not good enough maybe? I mean he hasn't really achieved a whole lot based on the hype. I was more keen on Surprise Baby last year, I backed him in May of 2019 when he was paying $81 for the Melbourne Cup. He was going better last year then this year.

Another way of looking at it is that there was a lot of hype because he is a son of a Melbourne Cup winner (Shocking) but more so that a lot of us (me included) thought he could repel the international raiders in the Melbourne Cup so most of us (and a lot of people throughout Australia) sort of looked up to Surprise Baby to beat the international horses.

I wonder if can bounce back in the autumn in 2021. I wonder if the owners will transfer Surprise Baby to a different trainer? 


Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote kavg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Nov 2020 at 12:50pm
Simply didn't stay a strongly run 3200m. He got so close last year cause it was farcically run slowly and turned into a sprint home.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jamal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Nov 2020 at 1:31pm
Originally posted by kavg kavg wrote:

Simply didn't stay a strongly run 3200m. He got so close last year cause it was farcically run slowly and turned into a sprint home.

So the question is.......is Surprise Baby a proper/true 3200m horse?
Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Balciano Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Nov 2020 at 2:03pm
Maybe there's something to that in retrospect kavg.

Last year's Cup was the 2nd slowest since 2004 with only Americain in 2010  on a wet track running slower. Interestingly Surprise Baby's Adelaide Cup win was also the 2nd slowest since 2004, with 2010 (Capecover) again being slower.

Wish I knew that before the race.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Nov 2020 at 2:08pm
Originally posted by mikey mikey wrote:

Did not give a yelp in The Melbourne Cup.

The 2 starts in 12 months just did not work, he was a different horse than the one from the 2019 edition.
Was he just not fit enough or was he just "switched off" after being off the scene for so long?

The European horses time and time again race well in The Melbourne Cup off light campaigns but it doesn't seem to work for The Australian Horses. Why?


They usually have well spaced races. They certainly do not have just the 2 or 3 runs in 12 months for the sake of it.

I suspect he was ring rusty. He does not need racing to get fit but he should not have sat out the Autumn for no reason.


reductio ad absurdum
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Nov 2020 at 2:13pm
Originally posted by kavg kavg wrote:

Simply didn't stay a strongly run 3200m. He got so close last year cause it was farcically run slowly and turned into a sprint home.

Maybe.

I'd like to see him with a solid campaign behind him before dropping off him as a 2 miler.

Not sure what the dates are yet but I'd like to see him run in the Aussie Cup, Tancred and Sydney Cup in the Autumn.

Perhaps a lead up to the Aussie Cup.


reductio ad absurdum
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shawy38 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Nov 2020 at 4:14pm
Paul just on ch78 now, will gallop Tuesday 
Will nominate for the Zipping Classic but is hoping for some rain
Jarred up a little on the hard track in the Cup
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sister Dot Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Nov 2020 at 4:19pm
Wrapped up in cotton wool and kept for The Cup, soundness issue?
“Where in this wide world can man find nobility without pride, friendship without envy, or beauty without vanity? Here where grace is laced with muscle and strength by gentleness confined”
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote kavg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Nov 2020 at 4:46pm
I actually came to the conclusion that he doesn't run a solid 3200m before last years MC based on his two defeats by Steel prince in May of last year over 2600 and 2800m at Flemington. They were both fairly solidly run races and he didn't really run through the line enough for me. 

Not to say he cant win an average run 3200m, just not a solid test, and of course, as he showed last year, he'd be right in the finish of a slowly run 3200m.

His runs at Flemington were only his 7th and 8th starts so I wasn't overly confident in my assessment but it was a period of time when he had a few runs for grounding and was superbly fit.


Prejudice is an emotional attachment to ignorance.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pardon_My_Dust Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Nov 2020 at 5:57pm
Originally posted by kavg kavg wrote:

Simply didn't stay a strongly run 3200m. He got so close last year cause it was farcically run slowly and turned into a sprint home.

Interesting perspective but I just can't see how a horse that finishes that hard over 3200m making up many lengths doesn't stay 3200m. Even with the slowly run race.

If you have a look at both mine and Redemptions posts in the Melbourne Cup thread pre-race we both commented on how one paced Surprise Baby looked in the Turnbull and how it wasn't a good sign to be plodding on that early in it's prep with the Cup still 5-6 weeks away. It got out at the 150m and literally had zero turn of foot. To me it rang alarm bells and I jumped off him from that point on. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote kavg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Nov 2020 at 6:27pm
PMD,
He also looked one paced in the Turnbull because he was up against better 2000m horses than he has ever raced before at that distance.

But have a look at The finishing positions of horses from Turnbull that went on to run in the MC:
Verry E=winner, then 7th beaten 3.8
Finche=3rd btn 0.2 then 9th btn 4.7
Warning 6th btn 1 then 12th btn 6.8
Surprise Baby 9th btn 2.4 then 13th btn 8.8
Vow & Declare 12th btn 2.8 then 18th btn 14

Also Steel Prince vs Surprise Baby-it is 2 all. Steel Prince has beaten S Baby twice by margins of 0.1 and 0.4. 
Surprise Baby has btn S Prince twice by 1.2 and 2.1 lengths (in 2 MC's) which says there is not much between them. Their finishing positions this year as compared to last year were 8 and 7 places further back and 7.9 and 8.8 lengths further back which is most probably due to 1 or 2 factors, a stronger field this year and/or a faster pace.
Prejudice is an emotional attachment to ignorance.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pardon_My_Dust Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Nov 2020 at 6:35pm
I think the way the race was run it was nigh on impossible for horses to make ground personally. Other than VE the only two other horses who made ground (Persan and Prince Of Arran) both cut the corner.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Nov 2020 at 6:35pm
Most of the prior posts are interesting and very thought provoking.  Thumbs Up

However provided the track is ok at Sandown believe we'll get a far better idea of just what ability he does possess and what his optimum distance might be.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shrunk in the Wash Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Nov 2020 at 6:38pm
Its been a dumb 12 month prep.
Time to get real, next prep
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Glencoe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Nov 2020 at 8:42pm
What seriously good analytical posts. well worth the read
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Nov 2020 at 12:52pm

Champion hoop Glen Boss says Surprise Baby can bounce back and show his class in Saturday's Group 2 Zipping Classic at Sandown.

The six-year-old started favourite in the Melbourne Cup but couldn't make his presence felt when beaten nine lengths.

Horsham-based trainer Paul Preusker decided to head to the Zipping after the electric stayer pulled up well from the Cup, with Boss securing the ride from Craig Williams.

"He can bounce back. He has got an electric turn of speed," Boss said.

"Obviously I am going to ride him quiet and ride him like he's the best horse in the race - which he is. If he can show that acceleration (then he will be hard to beat).

"Speaking to Paul he said the horse has done very well after the race. All the indications are he will run very well."

Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ExceedAndExcel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Nov 2020 at 5:06pm
Originally posted by Shrunk in the Wash Shrunk in the Wash wrote:

Its been a dumb 12 month prep.
Time to get real, next prep


Has to be one of the worst trained horses in the country doesnt he? Imagine how much prize money he could have won if they actually raced him. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote mikey Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Nov 2020 at 5:42pm
He would have to show something more before i could touch him again. Raced like a horse that had just "switched off" & wasnt interested in the MC.

Agree, badly trained. Many said that before the MC but i gave the trainer the benefit of the doubt. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pardon_My_Dust Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Nov 2020 at 7:22pm
Overtrained. Tried to get fit without racing. Forked it up.

Interesting to see Williams dumped. Can't stand him myself but not sure he did too much wrong in the Cup?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shrunk in the Wash Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Nov 2020 at 8:43pm
Originally posted by ExceedAndExcel ExceedAndExcel wrote:

Originally posted by Shrunk in the Wash Shrunk in the Wash wrote:

Its been a dumb 12 month prep.
Time to get real, next prep


Has to be one of the worst trained horses in the country doesnt he? Imagine how much prize money he could have won if they actually raced him. 

I liken him to the farce that took place with Leica Falcon a few years back
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jamal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Nov 2020 at 1:29pm
Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Nov 2020 at 1:45pm
Exhausted.  Nothing that a good long 8 month spell won't fix.
An honest politician is one who when he is bought will stay bought.

Simon Cameron

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Nov 2020 at 2:07pm

Horsham-based trainer Paul Preusker says stable star Surprise Baby will head to the paddock after he decided not to accept for Saturday's Group 2 Zipping Classic.

The six-year-old galloped at Hamilton on Wednesday morning but Preusker was not fully convinced the horse had recovered fully from a grueling Melbourne Cup, where he started favourite.

Instead Preusker has opted to get some spring sun on Surprise Baby's back and have him fit and firing for the autumn.

"He is good. Just for me, he stretched at Hamilton this morning and he worked good but I'm just not 100 per cent happy that he has fully recovered," Preusker said.

"You have to tick all the boxes. Holly (McKechnie) rode him and she knows him backwards and she said the turn of foot was back, but not quite happy yet.

"It's a shame. But why waste the run? You don't want to get them beaten, you want them on top of their game.

"You can get caught up finding the next run, and the next run and you miss that spring grass. He will come back nice and strong.

"It's a good opportunity for him to have a spell now and come back strong for the autumn."

Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote early4lunch Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Nov 2020 at 8:37pm
Dean Holland must be wondering what he did wrong
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Nov 2020 at 9:41pm
Holland? Don't you mean Jordy Childs?
Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote early4lunch Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Nov 2020 at 2:57pm
No , Holland
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Foxseal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Feb 2021 at 7:51pm
Just read hes injured a hock & now out of contention for the autumn carnival.

Hopefully not too serious & he can be back for the winter in Qld or at worst the Spring.
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