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Surprise Baby |
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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Nothing stopping the handicapper giving him a weight that virtually guarantees a run.
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reductio ad absurdum
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8684 |
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Question is - will the handicapper give him weight that guarantees him a start and does Surprise Baby deserve it? The weight that is |
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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crooked_gambler
Champion Joined: 27 Jan 2015 Status: Offline Points: 4677 |
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The handicapper does not give out favours
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mikey
Champion Joined: 01 Nov 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 511 |
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8684 |
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You'd think the Adelaide Cup win at 3200 metres would be enough to get a start in the Cup but it pronably won't.
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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goyougoodthing
Champion Joined: 09 Aug 2009 Status: Offline Points: 259 |
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They certainly won’t flog him to get a Cup start.
That’s obviously the aim but if things don’t go to plan they’ll wait until next year rather than compromise the horse. Still young and very lightly raced. |
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Lord Hybrow
Champion Joined: 05 Jul 2015 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 6683 |
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Hopefully Plan A comes off for them & he can win the Bart Cummings Stks.
I’ve never seen the horse in the flesh. Is he a robust enough type to be able to cope with Plan B of Hotham Hcp & assuming he wins, run in the Cup 3 days later? If he isn’t then djebel is right. Don’t flog him to get in. Focus on a QE Stks &/or Sandown Classic - wins in either of which would put him in a good place for 2020. |
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ExceedAndExcel
Champion Joined: 20 Dec 2008 Status: Offline Points: 16246 |
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Have put him in a couple of cups multis. Very impressed with saturdays run.
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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52.5
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reductio ad absurdum
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Slammington
Champion Joined: 24 May 2007 Status: Offline Points: 328 |
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52.5kg is perhaps slightly more than expected? With that weight another option might be to try and get a penalty as I think on recent runnings 54kg would likely get a start.
Maybe a short at the stumps at the Bart Cummings failing which a run in the MV Cup to try and win and get a 1.5kg penalty to get into the Cup with much better spacing than running in the Lexus. That is usually a comparatively weak race and he went well at the Valley on Sat. There is a precedent with Precedence I think being given a penalty of that size for winning the MV Cup though cynics suggested this was far too high and only done to ensure the profile of having a Bart runner. I am not sure what penalties have been given to other MV Cup winners. But I think Carpenter would be generous with penalties to get this guy into the race and fly the flag for the locals |
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8684 |
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This is where I miss the MacKinnon Stakes in its old timeslot on Derby Day...stayers could win the race and get an automatic run in the Cup and as the race was WFA - no weight penalty could be given. |
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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SkyDancer
Champion Joined: 02 Aug 2014 Location: Cranbourne Status: Offline Points: 8429 |
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Looks a treat today
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VOYAGER
Champion Joined: 03 Aug 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 18737 |
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I have a fear Sky that track will mean he misses the Cup.
This race may not be the Blue Diamond but this is Jordan Childs most important race ride of his career, so far! No pressure at all. |
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Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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SkyDancer
Champion Joined: 02 Aug 2014 Location: Cranbourne Status: Offline Points: 8429 |
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Off to the big dance Baby
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8684 |
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Two bets:
1st bet in May: 81-1 2nd bet in July: 26-1 So glad. Now he needs to win |
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Second Chance
Champion Joined: 02 Dec 2007 Status: Offline Points: 45819 |
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Hardly a stellar field, but a great win despite the bias.At least Oz has got one horse in the big one, even if he was foaled in NZ.
Just hope the usual suspects don't come out of their caves and sully the waters re the trainer.
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SkyDancer
Champion Joined: 02 Aug 2014 Location: Cranbourne Status: Offline Points: 8429 |
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He’s by the right stallion for that anyway
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8684 |
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Now the big question is....will Greg Carpenter give him a weight penalty for the Melbourne Cup? If yes then how much?
Surprise Baby currently has 52.5kg in the Cup? |
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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SkyDancer
Champion Joined: 02 Aug 2014 Location: Cranbourne Status: Offline Points: 8429 |
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2kg
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8684 |
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Really that much?? |
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Second Chance
Champion Joined: 02 Dec 2007 Status: Offline Points: 45819 |
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1kg tops surely?
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8684 |
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Almandin won by the same margin (1.5 lengths) in the 2016 Bart Cummings (55kg) and did not receive a weight penalty for the Melbourne Cup..So he stayed on 52kg
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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jacko1
Champion Joined: 26 Jun 2007 Status: Offline Points: 1801 |
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Now favourite for the Cup... interesting.
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Discohips23
Champion Joined: 01 Mar 2018 Status: Offline Points: 963 |
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Why?. What has the trainer done? |
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cotto1
Yearling Joined: 24 Jul 2016 Status: Offline Points: 119 |
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Hi there guys:
Very interesting indeed- do you think he deserves to be favourite for the cup in your guys eyes?. |
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VOYAGER
Champion Joined: 03 Aug 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 18737 |
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He is the favorite along with Finche from those here in Australia.
To be honest, I think they are the two best local cup chances, since Alamndin ( obviously locally trained). Finche has that WFA quality similar to Firoente. Surprise Baby has the Who shot thebarman, and Singoff, Big Duke staying ability, but I think he is a more talented horse than those three, who all finished top four. He has carried 57 today, 59 in the Feehan which was every bit as good a run as Fiorente was the year he won the cup, and he ran a cracking race with 58 in the Andrew Ramsden at 3200m. He drops to 52.5 kilos in the cup, he loves the track, and he is a horse who will love a fast run 3200m. Personally I would have Finche in front of him, and Marmelo there as well, but he is in the mix, however I would say that he has had some good money on him already, and they are protecting their liability. |
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Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8684 |
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Will be interesting if Surprise Baby gets a weight penalty for the Cup after his Bart Cummings win. |
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Glencoe
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2011 Location: Mt. Gambier S.A Status: Offline Points: 1942 |
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I think S Baby is one of those special once a generation horses.
don't under estimate Finche. I don't think he was meant to win yesterday. Also appeared to be on the wrong leg all the way down the straight
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Foxseal
Champion Joined: 06 Dec 2011 Status: Offline Points: 2706 |
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SB has received a 1kg penalty for the Melb Cup - now 53.5kgs
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SkyDancer
Champion Joined: 02 Aug 2014 Location: Cranbourne Status: Offline Points: 8429 |
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So that probably means D Holland will ride instead of Childs. Unless Jordy doesn’t eat for the next month
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