Surprise Baby

djebel wrote: Nothing stopping the handicapper giving him a weight that virtually guarantees a run.

Question is - will the handicapper give him weight that guarantees him a start and does Surprise Baby deserve it? The weight that is

crooked_gambler wrote: The handicapper does not give out favours

Agree, but thankfully Greg Carpenter has common sense & im happy to support his judgement 100%. Has not put a foot wrong in regards to Cup weights/penalties thus far imho. Loved his rule of not imposing a further penalty above 56kgs for horses winning the CC. Not all agreed but I did....

They certainly won’t flog him to get a Cup start.
That’s obviously the aim but if things don’t go to plan they’ll wait until next year rather than compromise the horse. Still young and very lightly raced.

Have put him in a couple of cups multis. Very impressed with saturdays run.

52.5kg is perhaps slightly more than expected? With that weight another option might be to try and get a penalty as I think on recent runnings 54kg would likely get a start.

Maybe a short at the stumps at the Bart Cummings failing which a run in the MV Cup to try and win and get a 1.5kg penalty to get into the Cup with much better spacing than running in the Lexus. That is usually a comparatively weak race and he went well at the Valley on Sat.

There is a precedent with Precedence I think being given a penalty of that size for winning the MV Cup though cynics suggested this was far too high and only done to ensure the profile of having a Bart runner. I am not sure what penalties have been given to other MV Cup winners. But I think Carpenter would be generous with penalties to get this guy into the race and fly the flag for the locals

Looks a treat today

Off to the big dance Baby

Hardly a stellar field, but a great win despite the bias.At least Oz has got one horse in the big one, even if he was foaled in NZ.

Now the big question is....will Greg Carpenter give him a weight penalty for the Melbourne Cup? If yes then how much?

Surprise Baby currently has 52.5kg in the Cup?

SkyDancer wrote: 2kg

Really that much??

Almandin won by the same margin (1.5 lengths) in the 2016 Bart Cummings (55kg) and did not receive a weight penalty for the Melbourne Cup..So he stayed on 52kg

Second Chance wrote: Hardly a stellar field, but a great win despite the bias.At least Oz has got one horse in the big one, even if he was foaled in NZ. Just hope the usual suspects don't come out of their caves and sully the waters re the trainer.

Why?. What has the trainer done?

He is the favorite along with Finche from those here in Australia.

To be honest, I think they are the two best local cup chances, since Alamndin ( obviously locally trained).

Finche has that WFA quality similar to Firoente.

Surprise Baby has the Who shot thebarman, and Singoff, Big Duke staying ability, but I think he is a more talented horse than those three, who all finished top four.

He has carried 57 today, 59 in the Feehan which was every bit as good a run as Fiorente was the year he won the cup, and he ran a cracking race with 58 in the Andrew Ramsden at 3200m. He drops to 52.5 kilos in the cup, he loves the track, and he is a horse who will love a fast run 3200m.

Personally I would have Finche in front of him, and Marmelo there as well, but he is in the mix, however I would say that he has had some good money on him already, and they are protecting their liability.

I think S Baby is one of those special once a generation horses.

So that probably means D Holland will ride instead of Childs. Unless Jordy doesn’t eat for the next month