Go to Villagebet.com.au for free horse racing tips - Click here now
Forum Home Forum Home > Horse Racing - Public Forums > Racing Forum
  New Posts New Posts RSS Feed - Spring Carnival 2020
  FAQ FAQ  Forum Search   Events   Register Register  Login Login


Thoroughbred Village Home Page. For village news, follow @TBVillage on Twitter. For horseracing tips, follow @Villagebet on Twitter. To contact the Mayor by email: Click Here.


Spring Carnival 2020

 Post Reply Post Reply Page  12>
Author
Message
Gay3 View Drop Down
Moderator Group
Moderator Group


Joined: 19 Feb 2007
Location: Miners Rest
Status: Offline
Points: 52023
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Spring Carnival 2020
    Posted: 18 Jun 2020 at 12:14pm

Royal Ascot placegetter off to Australia


Godolphin trainer Charlie Appleby reaffirmed his desire to bring Barney Roy to Melbourne for this year's spring carnival after the six-year-old gelding was placed at Royal Ascot on Wednesday.

Barney Roy ($9) finished third, five lengths behind impressive winner Lord North ($6) but just over a length from dual Australian Group 1 winner Addeybb ($4.50) in the £250,000 Group 1 Prince of Wales's Stakes (2004m).

“He saw the trip out well. I don’t think that we will be going any further than a mile and a quarter (2000 metres) and it would be nice if we stick to our long-term program with him, which was to take him out to Australia," Appleby said.

"I think he will be a fun horse to take out there. We will see where we are come the autumn and if we can travel with him.”

Appleby was eager for Barney Roy to campaign in Australia last spring but his plans were halted by a minor setback. He has raced three times this year for two wins in Dubai, including the Group 1 Jebel Hatta (1800m) at Meydan on March 7, before Wednesday's placing.

“Barney Roy has run another solid race and, if you take the winner out, there is not much between the rest of them," Appleby said.

"We were concerned whether there was going to be much pace in the race as he tends to latch on the bridle a bit."

Barney Roy won the Group 1 St James's Palace Stakes (1603m) during Royal Ascot 2017 for trainer Richard Hannon and retired to stud at the end of that year but was infertile. He has won three of six starts, all at stakes level, since returning to training for Appleby.

Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
Back to Top
Shrunk in the Wash View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 25 Mar 2016
Status: Offline
Points: 9890
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shrunk in the Wash Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Jun 2020 at 5:12pm
That Lord North was incredibly impressive 
Back to Top
djebel View Drop Down
Premium
Premium
Avatar

Joined: 07 Mar 2007
Status: Offline
Points: 53960
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Jul 2020 at 6:13pm

Spots running out for this year's spring carnival


Racing Victoria's international wish list for this year's spring carnival is already half full, with just over half a dozen spots left up for grabs for Melbourne's feature races.

A cap of 16 horses will be allowed on the plane to Melbourne this spring, but RV's general manager of international and racing operations Paul Bloodworth says at least eight of those spots have been filled.

Connections of 2018 Melbourne Cup winner Cross Counter, multiple Melbourne Cup placegetter Prince Of Arran and last year's Mackinnon Stakes winner Magic Wand have all told Bloodworth they're intending to return, while Lloyd Williams' contingent is expected to contain Twilight Payment, Master Of Reality and Buckhurst at minimum.

OTI Racing mare True Self, winner of last year's Queen Elizabeth, is also intending to come, while Charlie Appleby has long hoped Barney Roy would contend a Melbourne Cup.


"We have 16 spots and so it will be the top 16 on ratings, but all those above should get in," Bloodworth said.


"So yes, to some extent there'd be eight spots left."

Buckhurst presents as a Cox Plate contender and his credentials will be tested on Sunday night in the group 1 Tattersall's Gold Cup against last year's champion Magical, while Barney Roy also races overnight in Munich having won his past two.

Bloodworth added that Dashing Willoughby for Andrew Balding, who was likely to contest a Lonsdale Cup, was also "almost certain" to come to Melbourne should racing get the all clear to open its borders to international arrivals. Next month's Ebor Handicap is also likely to throw up a horse or two deserving of a Melbourne Cup spot.

However, Japanese involvement looks unlikely this year. Chrono Genesis, winner of the Takarazuka Kinen, has earned an exemption for this year's Cox Plate, but she faces a logistical challenge to get to Melbourne.

"We've got issues with flights out of Japan for Japanese horses to come to the spring so it's not looking promising for them so it's probably an unlikely scenario she would come and contest a Cox Plate at this point," Bloodworth said.

"The [Cox Plate] noms close Tuesday week so from that, if the club gets entries that they deem to be worthy of an invitation then they will issue them then. It's a little bit different from where in the past they've sent invitations out well before noms close and then see what happens with who nominates.

"Once we get a clearer direction on what's involved in coming to Australia this year, we'll start drilling what horses they are and start talking to a few other trainers, like John Gosden for example, whether they've got horses they're keen on bringing."

Meanwhile, Gosden's champion mare Enable underlined her status as one of the best horses in the world in winning her third King George VI at Royal Ascot on Saturday night, albeit against just two competitors.

Under champion hoop Frankie Dettori, the six-year-old never looked in doubt in the field of three, leaving rival Japan in her wake as she cruised past leader Sovereign and streamed away to win the group 1 race by five-and-a-half lengths.

"She was utterly dominant again," Bloodworth said.

"What did it teach us? I don't think it taught us very much other than she's close to back, which is good to see. We know how good she is and she displayed that again. It felt a bit like the year Winx won the Caulfield Stakes in a field of three."

Her next challenge is to win a third Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe – the second richest race in the world behind The Everest – again, something no horse has ever achieved. She went so close to completing the hat-trick last year, running second to Waldgeist on a wet track.

Damien Ractliffe is the Chief Racing Reporter for The Age.

reductio ad absurdum
Back to Top
djebel View Drop Down
Premium
Premium
Avatar

Joined: 07 Mar 2007
Status: Offline
Points: 53960
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Jul 2020 at 6:25pm
Master Of Reality.................117
Barney Roy..........................116
Magic Wand.........................115
Cross Counter......................114
Prince Of Arran....................113
Twilight Payment.................112
Buckhurst.............................111
True Self..............................110
Dashing Willoughby.............109

reductio ad absurdum
Back to Top
Gay3 View Drop Down
Moderator Group
Moderator Group


Joined: 19 Feb 2007
Location: Miners Rest
Status: Offline
Points: 52023
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Jul 2020 at 2:42pm

European runners left with fewer options following shipping timetable change

There will be no European runners on Caulfield Guineas Day in Australia following a change in the quarantine timetable for international challengers.

Instead of the usual two, only one shipment from Europe will head to Australia this season, and the earlier of those, which arrives a fortnight before Caulfield Guineas Day on Saturday, October 10, has been cancelled.

This is to accommodate horses running on Irish Champions Weekend or at the St Leger meeting before heading to Australia. The shipment will leave after that action-packed weekend of racing.

The shipment can carry 32 horses to Australia. Half of the horses will be transferred to local stables with the remainder to stay with their original stables – permission is still required for grooms to travel because of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The Caulfield Stakes – won by Godolphin's Benbatl in 2018 – has been used as a key stepping stone for the Cox Plate in recent seasons while Melbourne Cup horses have emerged from the Herbert Power Stakes, another race no longer available for European challengers.

The Group 2 event, run over 1m4f, has been popular with British and Irish raiders in the last few seasons. Prince Of Arran has finished third (2018) and second (2019) in the race, while Simenon and Raheen House have also run in the Herbert Power in recent years.

Paul Bloodworth, Racing Victoria's general manager of international operations, told Racing.com: "We normally would have two shipments – one to arrive on Grand Final Day in late September and one to arrive on Caulfield Guineas Day two weeks later.

"In the past they [first shipment] have come out of quarantine on Guineas Day and they've had quite a few runners on the day over the past few years but, with just the one shipment this year, we've taken the decision to allow horses to race in the Irish and English St Legers as well as the Irish Champion Stakes that weekend too.

"A lot of the horses that came last year and ended up in the Cups ran on that day, including Magic Wand, who ran in the Irish Champion and came for the Cox Plate and then for Flemington.

"So, with only one shipment, we made the decision that it would be silly not to allow horses that ran on that day to come."

Nine international runners featured on the card on Guineas Day in 2019.

Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
Back to Top
Gay3 View Drop Down
Moderator Group
Moderator Group


Joined: 19 Feb 2007
Location: Miners Rest
Status: Offline
Points: 52023
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Aug 2020 at 4:45pm

Appleby, bin Suroor out of carnival


Andrew Eddy

3:02pm

, (

European Godolphin trainers Charlie Appleby and Saeed bin Suroor will not be sending horses to Melbourne this year.

Racing Victoria confirmed on Tuesday that both Godolphin trainers, who have been regular carnival visitors and winners in recent years, have notified officials that due to a change in restrictions to Stage 4 in Melbourne amid the COVID-19 pandemic, they will not be taking part this year.

"Both Saeed and Charlie have advised over the last few days that they won't be coming to Melbourne this year," said RV General Manager of International Operations Paul Bloodworth.

"Charlie Appleby advised last night that because of the change to Stage 4 restrictions, he wasn't comfortable sending his staff to Melbourne and Saeed has also advised he won't be coming.

"It's a great shame. Saaed has been a regular in Australia for 30 years and Charlie certainly over the last five or six years so it's a shame they won't be able to compete."

The royal blue colours of the stable will not be missing this spring, however, as James Cummings is Godolphin's head trainer in Australia and he has a number of elite horses he intends running in the spring features.

Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
Back to Top
Gay3 View Drop Down
Moderator Group
Moderator Group


Joined: 19 Feb 2007
Location: Miners Rest
Status: Offline
Points: 52023
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Aug 2020 at 4:47pm

O'Brien family dominates Cox Plate entries


Andrew Eddy

3:21pm

Ireland's famous O'Brien family makes up the majority of the international entries for October’s 100th Cox Plate with an incredible 22 nominations spread across three stables out of the 28 international entries received by Tuesday's noon deadline.

Despite uncertainty around international participation owing to COVID-19 restrictions, the number of internationally trained entries remains the same as recent years, with a wealth of entries from Aidan O'Brien and his sons Joseph and Donnacha.

Overall, there were 182 entries received for the Cox Plate and although 28 of those were for international runners, ultimately the number of overseas raiders will depend largely on whether European trainers or their leading hands can attend.

Currently, horses are flying into Melbourne from Europe but they do so without specific handlers and if that restriction remains, there is a huge doubt on a number of the potential participants.

Aidan O'Brien, the 2014 Cox Plate-winning trainer, has nominated 13 horses including 2019 contender Magic Wand and stable stars Japan and Magical, while his sons Joseph and Donnacha have entered eight and one horse respectively.

Aidan O'Brien's horses have been travelling to Melbourne most years under the care of O'Brien's trusted right-hand man T.J. Comerford but if he is not permitted to come with the horses, there is a major doubt on whether O'Brien will send any of them.

As for Joseph O'Brien, his nominations are for part-owner Lloyd Williams and if only the horses are permitted to travel, Williams could place them with a local trainer.

Given the COVID-19 restrictions on human travel, it was confirmed that it is highly unlikely this year's carnival will feature any international riders as each rider would be forced to serve two weeks' quarantine during a time when there are rich carnivals in other parts of the world.

Included among the Cox Plate entries are 51 Group 1 winners, 42 Southern Hemisphere three-year-olds and 14 Northern Hemisphere three-year-olds.

Headlining the Australian contingent is Danny O'Brien's Lexus Melbourne Cup winner Vow And Declare and his boom stablemate Russian Camelot, Queensland hero Alligator Blood and the inaugural two winners of The All-Star Mile, Mystic Journey and Regal Power.

Racing Victoria Executive General Manager - Racing, Greg Carpenter, said of the entries for the $5 million contest: "There is incredible diversity in the list of entries, which pleasingly represents all states of Australia and lots of star power, so the foundation is there for a race befitting such an historic occasion.

"The quality of international entries remains strong despite the current COVID-19 restrictions and the next month will ultimately determine whether these internationals horses can compete in the 100th Cox Plate."

Moonee Valley Racing Club chief executive, Michael Browell, said: "Despite all the challenges that have been presented so far, today 182 dreams are alive to take out the legendary 2020 Ladbrokes Cox Plate in a year we are celebrating a significant milestone with the 100th running of our great race.

"The club is pleased to see internationals declaring their interest to compete in the Ladbrokes Cox Plate, but they will face strong competition from many stables across Australia and New Zealand determined to see their horse's name on the honour roll of legends."

Other notable points of interest among the list of Cox Plate entries include:

• There are eight horses that contested the 2019 Cox Plate nominated - Magic Wand (4th), Mystic Journey (5th), Kings Will Dream (6th), Harlem (8th), Cape of Good Hope (10th), Homesman (11th), Verry Elleegant (12th) and Danceteria (14th);

• Four-time Cox Plate-winning trainer Chris Waller has entered a race-high 18 horses, headlined by star mares Verry Elleegant and Funstar and including recent stable acquisition, dual Cox Plate placegetter Humidor;

• Last season's G1-winning juveniles Farnan (Golden Slipper), King's Legacy (Sires Produce and Champagne Stakes) and Tagaloa (Blue Diamond) are among the 42 Southern Hemisphere three-year-old entries along with Magic Millions-winning filly Away Game;

• Joining Russian Camelot among the 14 Northern Hemisphere three-year-olds on the entry list are 2020 G1 winners Kameko (2000 Guineas); Peaceful (Irish 1000 Guineas) and Fancy Blue (Prix de Diane and Nassau Stakes);

• The New Zealand-trained entries are spearheaded by Horse of the Year Melody Belle, and a classy group of four-year-olds including her stablemate Probabeel, Australian Derby winner Quick Thinker and New Zealand Oaks winner Jennifer Eccles; and

• Master Of Wine, Surprise Baby, King Of Leogrance and Oceanex are among the leading contenders for the Stella Artois Caulfield Cup and Lexus Melbourne Cup that have been nominated for the weight-for-age showdown.

First acceptances for the Cox Plate will be taken at noon on September 8.

Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
Back to Top
VOYAGER View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 03 Aug 2007
Location: Australia
Status: Offline
Points: 18737
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Aug 2020 at 2:12pm
I see the VRC are moving races during cup week.

The 1800m 3yo race usually run on Oaks day moves to Cup day. The Maribyrnong Plate switches with the Ottawa Stakes for the 2yo fillies so the Plate is now on Cup day and the fillies race is on Oaks day.

And a new sales based race the Inglis Bracelet for fillies and mares has been added to the Oaks Day.  


Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
Back to Top
Lord Hybrow View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 05 Jul 2015
Location: Australia
Status: Offline
Points: 6683
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Lord Hybrow Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Aug 2020 at 7:38pm
I recall hearing that Oaks Day was going to be a twilight fixture with a reduced number of races.   Is that still happening?

Disappointing to hear that an ‘Inglis’ race is now going to be contaminating the carnival.  The VRC spring carnival should be about premium racing for all comers, not rubbish sales-restricted races.

The VRC is tarnishing their brand by including a race like that as part of the carnival schedule.


Back to Top
VOYAGER View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 03 Aug 2007
Location: Australia
Status: Offline
Points: 18737
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Aug 2020 at 6:53pm
I agree with that Lord.

I also wonder how long it will be until Inglis put the prizemoney up to one million and then we see this race draw from the field for the Empire Rose, although female milers could run in both if the connections wanted!
Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
Back to Top
VOYAGER View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 03 Aug 2007
Location: Australia
Status: Offline
Points: 18737
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Aug 2020 at 9:44pm
Alright while we are watching the Thursday night football action we will start a weekly horses to watch for the weekend post.

This post is to point out a couple of runners who may not necessarily run well that weekend but who may play a role later in the spring.

Randwick

Zebrowski - Not sure if he will get a run in the Winx, but the way he finished his autumn campaign plenty of upside here. Looks a good point to kick off his spring program. Should go through the Chelmsford, George Main route, but they could stay in Sydney and run in the Craven plate and just go down to for the two cups if his form holds up.

Just Thinkin & Kinane - They are entered for the 1400m handicap and not sure either can win this with Poetic Charmer in top form, but they are intriguing runners. 

Morphettville

Shojiki - This Phillip Stokes filly is debuting here and the stable have a good opinion of her. Has found a fairly easy race to gain a win in and no surprise if she makes her way over to Melbourne for a race later in the spring ( one of those vfillies races during the VRC Cup week at 1200m or 1400m.

Nature Deel - Another from the Stokes yard who is resuming after 67 weeks off. Not sure we will see his best in the spring but had been spoken about as a carnival type before his enforced layoff missing Adelaide in the winter. I am hearing he will have two runs in Adelaide and if he runs to expectations and shows them that he is back to where he was before his break and he can get his rating up, then he will be coming across for a couple of races later in the spring.

Moonee Valley

Jennis Rainbow - This is not a strong race and the stable like her measure up to the lesser spring 3yo races, and the aim with her is the Sandown Guineas.

The final race at Moonee Valley has several spring hopes engaged including Orderofthegarter, Young Rascal, Schabau and even Skyman. Orderofthegarter looks the one for this race.

     
Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
Back to Top
VOYAGER View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 03 Aug 2007
Location: Australia
Status: Offline
Points: 18737
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Aug 2020 at 9:35pm
Well lets see what we can offer up for the future this week.

Caulfield.

Race 3 - Gamay. I know the 3yo filly form from last spring has not proven solid, but I though this filly had the most improvement out of the group. Fresh at 1400m should suit, but watch her for the future. Can see her being and ideal Matriarch Stakes horse later on.

Race 4 - Nonconformist -. Again the form from the Alister Clark in the autumn was nowhere near standing up in the higher grade races, but his win was that of a horse who was on the improve. Might need a run or two to get ready for a win, but is worth a watch for the listed and group 3 2000m to 2400m races coming up. 

Race 5 - Young Rascal, Orderofthegarter and Schabau. All three are capable of improving into the lower staying events, over the next two months.

Race 6 is full of future winners. Down the page we can say Superstorm (group 1 contender at 1400m to 2000m), Bold Star (contender in all the listed and group 3 sprints), Garner (no surprise to see him improve enough to get a shot at group 1 later in the spring), Banquo (looks a nice type at 1400m, the Moonga Stakes is ideal), Lyre (good mare resuming, and she can go well in anything at group 3 level up to 1200m).

Race 7 - Tagaloa. I am expecting him to improve off this fresh run, but has the class to win, here.

Heatherlie Handicap. Not sure if they can run well in either of the big cups, but Game Keeper and Haky look like they could run well in a Queen Elizabeth or a Zipping Classic. 

Memsie Stakes. Glenfiddich is a promising 3yo, but not sure he can win here fresh. Looks like the Guineas is his aim and again not sure he is at that level but there are plenty of races for him such as the Carbine Club or Sandown Guineas, if he is kept at 1600m.

WW Cockram Stakes - If Rubisaki is as good as I think she needs to be winning this, but she has enough to overcome that if she runs well she can be followed. Pretty Brazen and Perfect Jewel look good hopes to go through the mares races (Lets Elope, Mannerism and Empire Rose). Clarice Cliffs has shown good ability, but she needs to bring it to race day, maybe this could be her prep.

Morphettville

race 1 - So You Can. I am very disappointed he is still at 1200m. Needs 1600m to show his best and can develop into a contender later in the spring.

Leon MacDonald Stakes - Dalasan. If he is going to be a contender for the better races in Melbourne he needs to be winning the race named after his trainer.     

Rosehill

San Domenico Stakes. This small field is low on numbers, but we have some quality animals engaged. Mamaragan is my pinup horse for the moment. Peltzer is not far off him and he is a quality galloper who will be right in the Golden Rose and Doubtland and Anders are no slouches. 

Ming Dynasty Quality. Very interested in all three Waller runners here. Do not underestimate the longshot Oscar Zulu in this race, even though he looks a Spring Champion type.

Premiers Cup. Several here look good hopes moving forward. Mustajeer is a horse who can win a Metrop but if he heads to Melbourne he is a group 3 stayer at best.    
Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
Back to Top
VOYAGER View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 03 Aug 2007
Location: Australia
Status: Offline
Points: 18737
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Oct 2020 at 5:44pm
This weeks group 1 handicap previews.

Epsom Handicap

1. Kolding Scratched
2. Mister Sea Wolf - 75. Good win in the Chelmsford. Back to handicap suits and is well placed at Randwick over the mile, but his third up record is not great. Should get a lovely run, which will give him every hope but for me he can not win.
3. Star Of The Seas - 87. Has been in stellar form this year. Looks well placed and the only question mark is that he gets a clear crack at them from barrier one. He is the one to beat.
4. Imaging - 85. On form he is right in this race. The barrier is awkward but if he can find cover and get onto the back of a horse that takes him into the race, he is a winning chance.
5. Nettoyer - 73. Won the Doncaster for us in the autumn, but she has things against her here. Drier track, second up is not ideal and she will need luck getting clear in the straight. Also she has to give some high quality horses weight here, which makes her task harder. 
6. Brandenburg - 76. I am a huge fan of his, but is he going as well as he was in the autumn. The race suits mile at randwick and his third up run in the autumn in the George Ryder is good enough to win here, but as stated I am not sure he is going as well. No surprise if he won but top four hope for me.
7. Yulong Prince - 78. Thought he was a touch unlucky in the Chelmsford. Second up form very good. Can see him settling close and he will be strong late. Good value.
8. The Candy Man - 68. Needing a career best to win here and at seven that should not be happening. No.
9. Wild Planet - 73. Good win last start, but he is a huge risk for me at the strong run mile. Also has shown he is a genuine two or three lengths off group 1 quality in his career and although in career best form, he can not finish top four here.   
10. Niccanova - 82. He looks well placed. Drawn well, form at 1600m, in lesser grade but with bigger weights, got home nicely last start in a race which was beneficial to be in front half of the field. and is back at Randwick which will suit nicely. Not sure he can win, but he can run top four.
11. Probabeel - 84. She is in good form, loves randwick, and weighted nicely and loves the dry tracks. Has an awkward barrier, and she is stepping up to the genuine group 1 milers here. Is a winning hope.
12. Funstar - 77. She is a top four hope but she has things against her. She is racing like she needs the wet tracks to win a group 1, she like Probabeel steps up to the group 1 milers here, and is she racing as well now as she was in the autumn. Horror draw for her, and for me 4yo mares are not winning hopes in this race. The trainer/jockey combo are hard to hold out in these miles, but she will be running without my support.
13. Rock - 74. Not sure why he is so well liked here. The Cameron has been a shocking lead in race for this event. If the 4yo mares are stepping up to the group 1 milers, then this guy is stepping up three levels. I can not see him securing the easiest of runs, his two 1600m runs have been shocking and he will need a significant increase on his career best performance to win. For me he is the one to take on which is high in the market!
14. Colette - 75. Good run in the George Main and drawn to get a nice run from the gate. Again a 4yo mare has history against her, but can see why some would have her in their exotics!
15. Reloaded - Scratched
16. Looks Like Elvis - 70. All three runs this prep have been very good. No luck fresh and then not beaten far by Dreamforce in a race where Kolding ran second. Not sure he has the quality to win here and for me his best distance is 1800m so if he can use his barrier to sit closer, then he can keep going and run into the top four. 
17. Riodini - 76. Needs a career high to win, but with 50 kilos he will go forward and give a sight. 2 mile runs in NZ good but that classic form from last season has not stood up in Sydney this autumn. Not sure he can win, but will put him in all exotics.
18. Savacool - 72. Ran well last start behind two hopes in the Metrop. Not saying 1600m is he best distance, but she does have a good record at the mile, including a huge fresh win at Hawkesbury. Good record at track (in lesser grade) and if she can find a good spot in the run she can finish in the front half of the field. At $201 she could be worth a few coins each way.
19. Glenall - 65. If John Hawkes can win with this horse it will be his best training effort ever!
20. Vanna Girl - 74. She is a quality mare, but the form behind her has not stood up. She could run well but not a top four hope for me!
21. Just Thinkin - Scratched.

Summary.

This is as usual a really tough race. Waller has the cards and I will not be surprised if he trains the trifecta at least. Star Of the Seas is on top for me, his form line through the WFA races is impeccable. Imaging, Yulong Prince and Funstar are all hopes, and even Mister Sea Wolf and Savacool can run well. I think Niccanova is the best hope at really long odds, and Probabeel is a chance but she needs a career best to win. Brandeburg will get every hope from the gate, but is he racing as well as he was in the autumn and I think Riodini's last run was a sign that he was getting to his best and he can finish top four. I am taking on Rock and Vanna Girl as I think their form is below what is usual for a Epsom winner.

Ratings.

1. No.3 - Star Of The Seas - 87.
2. No.4 - Imaging - 85
3. No.11- Probabeel - 84
4. No.10 - Niccanova - 82
5. No.7 - Yulong Prince - 78
6. No.12- Funstar - 77

Add ins for any scratchings are No.17 Riodini & No.6 Brandenburg

Betting Strategy

Main bet: Star Of The Seas

Saving Bets: Imaging 1 win x 3 place

Each Way: No.10 Niccanova
                No.  7 Yulong Prince
                No.17 Riodini

          
Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
Back to Top
VOYAGER View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 03 Aug 2007
Location: Australia
Status: Offline
Points: 18737
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Oct 2020 at 5:50pm
Let me jus clarify.

For me no 4yo mare will win the Epsom, but Probabeel is the best hope for that group.  
Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
Back to Top
furious View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 19 Feb 2007
Status: Offline
Points: 25179
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote furious Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Oct 2020 at 5:52pm
Hey Voyager the Flight S is a G1 also.
Back to Top
VOYAGER View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 03 Aug 2007
Location: Australia
Status: Offline
Points: 18737
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Oct 2020 at 9:07pm
Fixed it up Dizzy Thumbs Up

Alright guys thanks to the punters club I am with we have managed to get the account up to an amount where we have $500 to spend on each group 1 for the spring. So here we go.

The Metropolitan

1. Mustajeer - 72. On his best he can win here, but two runs this prep have been very ordinary. Can run well, but not a top five hope for mine.
2. Mugatoo - 85. On form he is the one to beat. Only has to keep his current rating to win here.
3. Mirage Dancer - 75. Thought his fresh run was good, but that last run behind Al Galayel was not good. Can run well out to 2400m but again, not win.
4. Wu Gok - 75. I have no doubt this horse is in career best form. His run in the Chelmsford was sensational and I thought he stuck on well last start. Drops nicely in weight will roll forward from the gate and has a good 2400m record. If the track was wet he would be my top rater and if he stays @ $81 or gets out to triple figures he is worth a each way bet.
5. Raheen House - 70. Still trying to work out how he won and placed in the Sydney Cup in the autumn. Has not reached his potential here in Australia, and will run without any support from me.
6. Etah James - 68. I have never seen this take place before. Maher/Eustace are here first up. She is a genuine 2400m+ horse so I do not think she will fail due to the distance, but if they can win this first up they are geniuses.
7. Shared Ambition - Scratched.
8. Brimham Rocks - 82. Close up in this last year, and no reason he can not go as well again. The barrier is of concern but this is a defining ride for Avdulla. He needs to be a regular group 1 winner to be rated in the top level and this is an undeniable chance.
9. Hush Writer - 75. Going well and drops to a nice weight here. Will go forward and for me he is a top four hope, but can not win.
10. Lord Belvedere - Scratched
11. Carif - 78. He is a bit of a non-winner, but this is a horse which should be trained the European way. His 2400m+ form is very good without winning. The Tancred run behind Verry Ellegant is good enough to win this, his form in the spring last season was good but he is a more mature horse this time around. Perfect barrier, weighted well, form this prep at unsuitable distances has been good and at $31.00+ he is a good each way hope.
12. Rondinella - 74. She is smart but just not sure she is a open class group 1 horse. Can run well, but will be running without me.
13. Angel Of Truth - 78. I think he is going very well. Is thrown in at weights being a derby winner, can roll forward, but we do not want him to lead, and while he does need to improve to win he can stick on and place.
14. Azuro - 65. No chance.
15. Paths Of Glory - 76. If he had drawn a gate he would be the second top rater. I thought his Newcastle Cup run was sensational on the top of a faster than even speed. Drops to 50 kilos is very advantageous and no problem with the 2400m and his good track form is 3 starts for 3 wins. He is the overs here @ $26.00.
16. Girl Tuesday - 75. Three runs have been good this prep. Her only 2400m run was good when just nutted by Hush Writer at level weights. The barrier makes it hard, but like Colette in the Epsom, while she is not one I will be backing, I could see why tipsters and punters like her.
17. Miss Sentimental - 70. NZ Oaks winner two seasons ago, but not a winning hope here.
18. Zebrowski - 84. I will be backing him, but I have studied his runs this prep, and to me he looks to perform at his best with give in the ground. Distance no problem, absolutely drawn well to sit closer over the 2400m and his lead up form is good, while he is weighted to win. For me the one to beat, but I hoping I am wrong about him wanting give in the track.
19. Norway - 67. No chance.
20. Attention Run - 72. If she can gain a run she can run well but not win. Fifth to tenth here at best.
21. Sir Charles Road - 74. Will not get the run, but out to 2400m will suit and he looks to be getting ready for the ATC StLeger.
22. Grey Lion - 67. No chance

Summary

For me there are only five genuine winning chances. In order Mugatoo, Zebrowski, Brimham Rocks, Paths Of Glory and Carif. Will add Hush Writer, Girl Tuesday and Wu Gok for the exotics, although if he gets to $101 I will have a each way bet on Wu Gok.

Main Bet: No.18 Zebrowski @ $9.00 = $200 win

Saving Bets: No.2 Mugatoo @ $3.40 = $150 win 
                    No.11    Carif @ $51.00 = 20 win + $30 place
                    No.13 Angel Of Truth @ $31.00 = 20 win + 30 place
And i will have something each way on Wu Gok if I can get $101.00.

First Four

8-11-13-15-18/2-8-11-13-15-18/2-3-4-6-8-9-11-13-15-16-18/2-3-4-6-8-9-11-13-15-16-18 = $54.00 3% 



Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
Back to Top
VOYAGER View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 03 Aug 2007
Location: Australia
Status: Offline
Points: 18737
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Oct 2020 at 8:51pm
For those who are always wondering why I go on about the WFA weight allowances being outdated, I present todays Turnbull Stakes.

Verry Ellegant was giving weight to males and guess what she was better than them.

As soon as we either change the WFA structure, or get rid of it all together, the better. Mares do not need a two kilo allowance at 4yo or older, if they are multiple group 1 winners.

Also Probabeel and Funstar gave weight to some males and beat them home, and the better credentialled males that had to give them weight got nowhere near them.

Next week we see Montefillia, Hungry Heart and Miravlle take on the males in the Spring Champion and I will surprised if all three are not in the top four.    
Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
Back to Top
VOYAGER View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 03 Aug 2007
Location: Australia
Status: Offline
Points: 18737
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Oct 2020 at 9:56pm
Toorak Handicap

1. Mr.Quickie - 72. No chance.
2. Cascadian - 80. Is looking for the 1600m and he ahs finally found a soft gate to get the right run. Can win!
3. So Si Bon - 74. Back from the Underwood and is better suited at the 1600m. Once again a top four chance and he does have the quality to win but needs everything to go right.
4. I Am Superman - 85. Is in career best form and he looks placed to get the right run. The horse who finished 3rd to him last start ran a cracking fifth in the Epsom last saturday so the form is good and he gets his chance at a group 1 here.
5. Superstorm - 83. Went to a strong Turnbull last week and he ran really well. Back to the 1600m and drop in grade suits and I wish he had drawn a good gate, but again gets the visitors draw. Can win!
6. Chief Ironside - 76. Good run on his home track fresh, however the form from that race has been shocking. Has won the Melbourne way last year and 1600m will suit him better. Not sure he can win, but he can get close.
7. Mandela Effect - 70. I think he is at his best at 1400m but he will get a soft run from the gate and get his chance. can get a top six spot.
8. Reyjkavik - 74. Great run in the Rupert Clarke. Is better suited at 1600m, but not sure Caulfield suits. Not sure what they do from the gate and I can see problems for him either way, going forward or back. He can finish hard again , but not win.
9. Achernar Star - 72. Fantastic second up in the Rupert Clarke and he can use the inside gate. I think he is big odds, but I will just be using him in the exotics and not backing him.
10. Sikandarabad - 70. Form good before he faced a strong Kingston Town. This is a good strong field and not sure he can figure in the finish. He does love Caulfield so if can find a strong early tempo he can finish off. Needs huge amount of luck.
11. Sircconi - 73. Is in cracking form. Good run behind Humidor in the Feehan and that run is good enough to win here. He will be going in my wide exotics.
12. Age Of Chivalry - 69. Has always been a length or two below the top level and that should continue here especially at 1600m.
13. Junipal - 79. In career best form. Loves caulfield and the 1600m. I would prefer a slight bit of cushion in the track but he is a genuine winning chance.
14. Haarlech - 75. Looked in need of the run last time out. 1600m form is okay and even though I think he is being set for the VRC Carnival and the Cantala, I think from the barrier and at the weights he can improve here.
15. Buffalo Power - 71. Is the up and comer but if we take a line through Windstorm, he needs to improve to beat Superstorm home and not sure he can do that here, second up.

Ratings.

1. No.4 I Am Superman - 85
2. No.5 Superstorm - 83
3. No.2 Cascadian - 80
4. No.13 Junipal - 79
5. No.6 Chief Ironside - 76
6. No.14 Haarlech - 75
Add ins for the scratchings are No.8 & No.3

Betting Strategy

Main Bet: $150 win No.4 I Am Superman 
               $100 win No.5 Superstorm

Each Way $50 each way No.6 Chief Ironside
               
4-5-2/2-3-4-5-6-13-14/Field -1, 7,10,12,15/Field - 1,7,10,12,15 = $104 8%
6-11-13-14/2-3-4-5-6-13-14/ Field -1.7.10.12.15/ Field 1,7,10,12,15 = $52.50 3%

Good luck to all investors and wish you all the success!     

Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
Back to Top
TJMitchell View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 29 Jun 2014
Location: Melbourne
Status: Offline
Points: 16918
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote TJMitchell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Oct 2020 at 1:32pm
Port Guillaume out of the Caulfield Cup
Time is a flat circle
Back to Top
djebel View Drop Down
Premium
Premium
Avatar

Joined: 07 Mar 2007
Status: Offline
Points: 53960
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Oct 2020 at 1:39pm
To rule him out this soon it must be serious yet he has not been ruled out of later races.

At least visiting trainers can not claim bias.
reductio ad absurdum
Back to Top
djebel View Drop Down
Premium
Premium
Avatar

Joined: 07 Mar 2007
Status: Offline
Points: 53960
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Oct 2020 at 1:39pm
And what is the go with Anders ?


reductio ad absurdum
Back to Top
TJMitchell View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 29 Jun 2014
Location: Melbourne
Status: Offline
Points: 16918
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote TJMitchell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Oct 2020 at 1:42pm
No more Aquis?
Time is a flat circle
Back to Top
VOYAGER View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 03 Aug 2007
Location: Australia
Status: Offline
Points: 18737
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Oct 2020 at 4:19pm
Thank you guys as I gave everyone the one to back in the Toorak, in my preview LOL 

Glad to hear that Stokes will now train him as a miler from now on and keep him fresh.


Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
Back to Top
Gay3 View Drop Down
Moderator Group
Moderator Group


Joined: 19 Feb 2007
Location: Miners Rest
Status: Offline
Points: 52023
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Oct 2020 at 11:39am

An Aidan O’Brien-trained galloper is out of the spring carnival after sustaining a leg fracture at the Werribee International Horse Centre on Wednesday morning.

The 2000 Guineas runner-up Wichita sustained a fracture to his off hind leg during trackwork.

Wichita completed his work but the injury was found when the horse returned to his box.

Racing Victoria and O’Brien stable vets are working to determine the extent of Wichita’s injury before deciding on a management plan.

O’Brien had sent Wichita to Melbourne as part of his six-horse team. The stallion’s main target was the Group 1 Cantala Stakes (1600m) at Flemington on Victoria Derby day.

However, Wichita had firmed from $15 into $8 in TAB’s Golden Eagle market as some punters thought O’Brien might have changed plans to tackle the $7.5 million race.

The Golden Eagle be run on the same day as the Victoria Derby.

Wichita will remain in confined to his box as vets begin the treatment process.

Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
Back to Top
VOYAGER View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 03 Aug 2007
Location: Australia
Status: Offline
Points: 18737
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Oct 2020 at 9:38pm
Okay onward and upward.

Caulfield Cup

1. Anthony Van Dyck - 76. Topline galloper but he needs to overcome a huge amount of obstacles. Has the quality to win but need more than the current $7.00 to back him.
2. Avilius - 70. Not sure why he is here, but his class will take him along way. Just a top four hope at best for me.
3. Vow And Declare - 69. There are recent precedents for Melbourne Cup winners winning the Caulfield cup the next season, but he is woefully out of form.
4. No.4 Buckhurst - 75. Well weighted, drawn to get a good run from the gate, the trainer might be better than his father and he has a jockey on board in good form. 
5. Mirage Dancer - 74. Good Metrop win, and he ran a cracker in this race last year. 2400m is ideal and he has run well at Caulfield last season. Looks a top four chance.
6. Mustajeer - 68. His form has fallen off a cliff. Maybe a wet track can help but if he wins I will type next weeks ratings in the nude!
7. Verry Elleegant - 85. Top local chance. Nice gate from which she gets every hope to settle and then rush home. Good win in the Tancred at 2400m last autumn says she is well suited at 2400m, but this is a quality field and she gives some smart horses weight here. The one to beat!
8. Dashing Willoughby - 75. Looks more a Flemington, 3200m horse to my view, but can still run well here. Drawn perfectly and if there is any money for him he is the one I will add to my bets.
9. Finche - 78. Two good runs this prep. I think he is better suited here at 2400m than the 3200m at Flemington. Has an awkward barrier. Good hope to give Damien Lane back to back cups.
10. Prince Of Arran - 75. Top four hope, but he is a go forward type and just not sure if he gets the easy run early top be able to kick. If he had drawn a better barrier he would be in the top five raters.
11. Master Of Wine - 83. Draws a good barrier and will sit forward. Looks well placed under the handicaps and at the distance. Stable are red hot right now, and top four hope.
12. The Chosen One - 72. Going well but not sure he is a winning hope here without rain.
13. Warning - 75. Going well and he looks well suited, but just not sure Caulfield is his track. Top four chance.
14. Dalasan - 80. His first few runs were not great, but that Turnbull Stakes run was a cracker. His run in the All Star Mile here in the autumn was good but he needs to sit a little closer over the 2400m to get his chance.
15. True Self - 69. Not sure he has the class to finish top five here.
16. Aktau - Scratched.
17. Toffee Tongue - 82. This might be a season early, but her Turnbull run was very good. Meets VE two kilos better from that race and drawn to do no work for 1400m. Top four hope.
18. Chapada - 75. Sits in that group that are top four hopes. It was a good effort last week and the form around him is sitting well. Just not sure where he gets to in the race.
19. Raheen House - 67. Surely the St Leger in Sydney was a better option.
20. San Huberto - 71. Needs to show me he has the class to win this, genuine $101.00 chance.
21. Oceanex - 67. Should be $2001.00 here.
22. Le Don De Vie - 69. Will not get the run and we will see him at Geelong next Wednesday.

Summary: Looks a good solid Caulfield Cup. The top one is the best horse in the race, on form and if he can overcome the obstacles he deserves his win. Buckhurst's form is good enough, Verry Elleegant proved in the Tancred she can perform at this distance, but she will need a good speed, Finche, Master Of Wine, Warning, Dalasan and Toffee Tongue were all good runs in the Turnbull which is usually the local form reference and all of them can turn the tables on Verry Eleegant. Mirage Dancer ran 3rd last year and it was a good strong win last time out, Chapada was good last week and love Prince Of Arran, but just thought he would do it tough from the draw.

Betting Strategy:

$100 win No.7 Verry Elleegant @ $5.00
$100 win No.4 Buckhurst @ $11.00
$  50 each way No.14 Dalasan @$19.00
$  50 each way No.17 Toffee Tongue @ $18.00
$  50 each way No.18 Chapada @ $26.00   

Good luck to all investors!

Ratings  
      
Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
Back to Top
brave_ponies View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 06 Sep 2013
Location: Sydney
Status: Offline
Points: 3278
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote brave_ponies Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Oct 2020 at 7:56pm
Go Mustajeer!!! LOL
Back to Top
VOYAGER View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 03 Aug 2007
Location: Australia
Status: Offline
Points: 18737
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Oct 2020 at 2:47pm
Just looking at and hearing what trainers and connections were saying after Saturday, it looks like races like the Bondi, Golden Eagle, The Hunter and The Gong will keep horses who would normally travel to Flemington, in NSW.

After Saturdays racing I would have been safe in saying that horses like Purple Sector, Just Thinkin, Looks Like Elvis, Think It Over, Pancho and other similar horses would be traveling down to Flemington, with all those horses maybe aimed at the 1800m Listed race on Melbourne Cup day as well as the Eclipse.

However the huge prizemoney on offer seems to have did what it was intended to do, and kept those listed and group 3 level gallopers here. 

With this situation to get worse if these prizemoney levels continue what does that mean for races such as the 1800m listed on cup day, the Eclipse and even the Sandown Guineas and Carbine Club Stakes, among other melbourne spring races.  
Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
Back to Top
VOYAGER View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 03 Aug 2007
Location: Australia
Status: Offline
Points: 18737
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Oct 2020 at 4:33pm
Cox Plate

1. Kolding - 75. Good wins at his last two runs, but steps up a few levels here. Is having his first run at Moonee Valley which is a concern and this will be run at a different tempo than his Hill Stakes win. Top four at best.
2. Humidor - 81. His three runs in Melbourne this prep have been very good. Loves the Valley and he will improve on his two Caulfield runs here. He will get back from that barrier and needs a strong tempo to get home hard, but his best this prep is good enough to place here.
3. Fierce Impact - 76. Just warming up late in a slowly run Hill Stakes. This his first run at the Valley but he should get his chance. Definite top four hope!
4. Master Of Wine - 72. Not racing as well as he was in the autumn and is lucky to be included in the field. No chance! 
5. Mugatoo - 73. Going well but he steps up from the handicap to WFA. I do think the 2000m is his best distance so he has that going for him. Should get a nice run from the gate and I suppose he could run on into the top five, but he would need a huge career best to win and that will not happen!
6. Aspetar - 75. His last two runs was were good enough for here. Not sure he is the top international here, but he can run well and has the barrier to roll forward and Damien Lane is due for a big race win.
7. Sir Dragonet - 76. Sits around the top four contenders, however he has form which is behind Buckhurst's so I am unsure how he got the run before Buckhurst. Can not win but again top four contender.
8. Magic Wand - 76. Good fresh win, but does come here in inferior form than last year, however she does race well here in Australia. Drawn well and will sit forward and get every hope.
9. Arcadia Queen - 84. That last start run was a career best. If she can find improvement from that then she is the best local hope. I just think she needs to sit closer here at the Valley, and if she can be within three lengths of them at the turn then she can win.
10. Nettoyer - 68. A handicapper who is going to find it tough late. 
11. Russian Camelot - 83. Dropped his effort last start, but that is not unusual for Cox Plate runners. Can bounce back but I am just a little worried that he is looking for 2400m. That will be an advantage if the speed is strong.
12. Armory - 86. His overall form is good, but that last run around some high class genuine group 1 gallopers, alone sees him the top rater. Like Last years winner, if he shows up in his best condition he just wins.
13. Probabeel - 82. Okay lets get the positives out of the way. In good form, Epsom runners have a good record of running well here, well weighted and can settle a little more forward from the gate over the 2000m. I also have no doubt she will run the distance as she ran a cracking race when just nosed out in the Vinery on a unsuitable soft track. Now the negative and it is huge and relevant. This race is the 18th on a track which deteriorates naturally, during these two meetings, so if we get any rain at all during the two meetings it deteriorates even worse and she needs it as dry as possible. If she gets the track conditions to suit, and we get no rain over the two days, then she can win!
14. Grandslam - 78. Thought his run in the Guineas was very good. Absolutely certain that from the gate he looks to lead and with his breeding they need to make it a strong 2000m test, as some are suspect at the 2000m and some are coming back from 2400m. Not sure he can win, but the $26.00 on offer makes him a each way bet.
15. Buckhurst - 76. Not sure how a couple made the field in front of him, ( and no the 3yo was not one as he has a right to bet there). Thought it was a good run last time out, but to me he just did not run the 2400m out, at least not strong enough to win a Caulfield Cup. Like back in distance, and he has never backed up before but his run when only two weeks apart to win the Alleged Stakes is good enough to win here. If he grabs a run he can run top four!   

Ratings

1. No.12 Armory - 86
2. No.  9 Arcadia Queen - 84
3. No.11 Russian Camelot - 83
4. No.13 Probabeel - 82
5. No.  2 Humidor - 81
6. No.14 Grandslam - 78
Add ins for any scratchings are No.3 & No.8 ( with 15 if he gets the run)

Summary: Armory's last effort was world class. The field was small but it was elite and he was not beaten far. Drawn a barrier to get a lovely run and he will look the winner somewhere in the straight. The two best local hopes are Arcadia Queen and Russian Camelot, however track depending conditions could see Probabeel join that duo. Humidor and the emergency ( Buckhurst), are the only other winning hopes. The  3yo is a place hope, and Fierce Impact and Aspetar are place hopes. 

Betting Strategy

$200 win @ $5.50 No.12 Armory
$100 win @ $5.50 No.  9 Arcadia Queen
$  50 each way @ $21.00 No.2 Humidor
$  50 place @ $5.50 No.14 Grandslam

I am saving $50 to have on Probabeel if the track is not deteriorating. If tha track does deteriorate I will have $50 each way Grandslam @ $26.00. 

Good luck and many winners to all investors!             
Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
Back to Top
djebel View Drop Down
Premium
Premium
Avatar

Joined: 07 Mar 2007
Status: Offline
Points: 53960
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Oct 2020 at 3:45pm

Do the Internationals add to our racing carnivals?

Do the Internationals add to our racing carnivals?

As good a win as Sir Dragonet's was in the Cox Plate on Saturday I didn't feel that spark I normally do when they flash across the line in the weight-for-age feature and it had nothing to do with a crowdless The Valley.

DO INTERNATIONALS ADD EXCITEMENT?

Congratulations to everybody associated with Cox Plate winner Sir Dragonet, what an exciting win it was for them, just as exciting as Lys Gracieux and Adelaide but was it as exciting as Winx or So You Think or any of the dozens of other Aussie stars that won the race and who we saw race week to week.

Adelaide came from Europe and conquered and was soon gone and Lys Gracieux came from Japan and was then off home never to be seen again.

Is it just me or, does the push to keep attracting international horses, take away from seeing horses you watch week in and week out win our feature races.

There was nothing international about Richmond and Geelong in the AFL Grand Final or the NRL decider between Melbourne V Penrith on the weekend and what great sporting conquests they were enjoyed by footy lovers across the nation.

It is the same in the Melbourne Cup. Did Cross Counter, Rekindling, Protectionist or Dunedin excite you as much as Saintly, Might and Power, Makybe Diva or Vow And Declare?

I am not being a nark. I think I am just stating a fact.

I’ve had several shares in international horses myself, my wife has a share in Shared Ambition, the runner-up in the Moonee Valley Cup and I congratulate Ciaron Maher and his team for selecting Sir Dragonet and buying him off Coolmore for $2m, a price that is now in the bargain basement category.

I’m just pointing out there was so much to love about the home grown Aussie champs, who we saw develop and build up for the race. They didn’t appear on the scene out of nowhere and then disappear just as quickly.

Am I wrong on this or do you think the same?

reductio ad absurdum
Back to Top
Second Chance View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 02 Dec 2007
Status: Offline
Points: 45820
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Oct 2020 at 4:05pm
Djebel is one of few Premium Members on here, and totally deserved.  Whilst Thoroughbred Village itself explicitly supports the expression of diverse points of view on racing, tipping, breeding, sport, politics and nut scratching.

However the Mayor and many others here emphatically believe that posting a Richie Callander opinion piece almost certainly warrants an immediate downgrade of djebel's TBV rating. UnhappyErmmCryWink
Back to Top
 Post Reply Post Reply Page  12>

Forum Jump Forum Permissions View Drop Down

Forum Software by Web Wiz Forums® version 12.05
Copyright ©2001-2022 Web Wiz Ltd.

This page was generated in 0.984 seconds.