Probabeel

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Topic: Probabeel
Posted: 04 Mar 2020 at 7:26am

PROBABEEL (NZ)

Bay filly 2016

Savabeel Brown 2001	Zabeel Bay 1986	Sir Tristram Bay 1971	Sir Ivor Bay 1965	Sir Gaylord Attica	1959 1953	2-s 8-g
		Sir Tristram Bay 1971	Isolt Bay 1961	Round Table All My Eye	1954 1954	2-f 6-e
		Lady Giselle Bay 1982	Nureyev Bay 1977	Northern Dancer Special	1961 1969	2-d 5-h
		Lady Giselle Bay 1982	Valderna Bay 1972	Val de Loir Derna	1959 1961	5-h 16-c
	Savannah Success Brown 1995	Success Express Bay 1985	Hold Your Peace Bay 1969	Speak John Blue Moon	1958 1948	1-l 12-b
		Success Express Bay 1985	Au Printemps Bay 1979	Dancing Champ Lorgnette	1972 1964	4-r 17-b
		Alma Mater Brown 1988	Semipalatinsk Bay 1978	Nodouble School Board	1965 1968	A1 23-b
		Alma Mater Brown 1988	Sweetie Brown 1981	Without Fear Virginia	1967 1972	4-c 1-o
Far Fetched Bay 2010	Pins Bay 1996	Snippets Bay 1984	Lunchtime Chestnut 1970	Silly Season Great Occasion	1962 1965	1-g 7-f
		Snippets Bay 1984	Easy Date Bay 1977	Grand Chaudiere Scampering	1968 1970	19-b 20-a
		No Finer Chestnut 1979	Kaoru Star Chestnut 1965	Star Kingdom Kaoru	1946 1955	1-g 31>
		No Finer Chestnut 1979	Humour Bay 1962	Pirate King Real Delight	1953 1951	21-a 16-g
	Beyond Bay 2002	Centaine Brown 1980	Century Brown 1969	Better Boy Royal Suite	1951 1960	2-n 20>
		Centaine Brown 1980	Rainbeam Bay 1973	Vain Rain Shadow	1966 1967	A10 C7
		Hyades Bay 1998	O'Reilly Brown 1993	Last Tycoon Courtza	1983 1986	8-c 13-b
		Hyades Bay 1998	Habania Grey 1978	Habat Georgina Belle	1971 1969	9-c 7-d

reductio ad absurdum

djebel

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Posted: 04 Mar 2020 at 7:31am

Thought her effort was a stupendously brilliant performance.

Her and Funstar are in the freakish league.

reductio ad absurdum

VOYAGER

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Posted: 04 Mar 2020 at 12:28pm

I am not disagreeing djebel, but I did say that about Nakeeta Jane last autumn and she did not win again, and that is a common theme with Surround winners.

I also find it inter3esting that both those fillies apparently are heading to the Phar Lap and not the Coolmore against the females. If I was a connection I would be keeping them to their own sex as long as possible!

Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise

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Posted: 04 Mar 2020 at 5:20pm

Agreed it was a terrific performance.

Caught wide from a decent barrier, pushed forward and couldn't slot in, then never appeared to travel and was going backwards at the 600 but was good enough to get to the outside and mow them down.

All her efforts in Aust going back to her 2 yr old days have been full of merit. It certainly wasn't a disadvantage to be wide in the straight on Saturday, and she had the advantage of 2 recent runs back home, but really think she can go on with it. Will be sticking with her for the rest of the Autumn.

How far is she bred to get djebel? She races like 1600-2000 would be ideal.

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Posted: 14 Mar 2020 at 5:34pm

Another great clash between Probabeel and Funstar this afternoon. Slow mid race sectionals and the track conditions made it advantage Funstar today but thought Probabeel was huge in defeat.

Hopefully they both get to the Vinery again in a fortnight and if the rain clears should be a ripping race. I'd be happy to stick with the Kiwi.

Couple of really nice rivalries developing between our younger horses, this could be the pick of them.

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Posted: 14 Mar 2020 at 6:09pm

I heard an RSN commentator this morning quote her trainer that she can't go a yard after more than a spit of rain! Exaggeration or not, I thought she was all heart in the conditions Heart

Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!

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Posted: 15 Mar 2020 at 6:17am

LEGS (NZ)	filly	2002	Pins / Centaine	G1W, NZ
ECONSUL (NZ)	colt	2001	Pins / Centaine	G1W, AUS
KARLA BRUNI (NZ)	filly	2007	Pins / Centaine	G3W, NZ
CREPE DE CHINE (NZ)	filly	2002	Pins / Centaine	G3W, NZ
PINS 'N' NEEDLES (NZ)	filly	2001	Pins / Centaine	G3W, NZ
GOLDSCHATZ (NZ)	gelding	2003	Pins / Centaine	G3W, SIN
SOMEPIN ANYPIN (NZ)	gelding	2007	Pins / Centaine	G3W, AUS
MISS ALICE (NZ)	filly	2010	Pins / Centaine	G3W, NZ
UNDISCLOSED (NZ)	colt	2007	Pins / Centaine	LW, NZ
PIN UP BOY (NZ)	gelding	2001	Pins / Centaine	LW, NZ
LEGSMAN (NZ)	gelding	2005	Pins / Centaine	LW, AUS
BELLA VALENTINA (NZ)	filly	2004	Pins / Centaine	LW, AUS
SHANDREAM (NZ)	filly	2007	Pins / Centaine	LW, NZ
KEANO (NZ)	colt	2005	Pins / Centaine	LW, AUS
GLAM SLAM (NZ)	filly	2005	Pins / Centaine	LW, AUS
Perfect Pins (NZ)	gelding	2005	Pins / Centaine	G1p, SIN
Prickle (NZ)	filly	2001	Pins / Centaine	G2p, NZ
Far Fetched (NZ)	filly	2010	Pins / Centaine	G3p, NZ
Port Vell (NZ)	gelding	2005	Pins / Centaine	Lp, AUS
Johnny Jones (NZ)	gelding	2012	Pins / Centaine	Lp, NZ
Splitsecond (NZ)	filly	2008	Pins / Centaine	Lp, NZ
Sacred Pins (NZ)	gelding	2008	Pins / Centaine	Lp, AUS

Black-type horses by Pins out of mares by Centaine

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Posted: 22 Aug 2020 at 5:41pm

Terrific return today. A top class juvenile that keeps coming up each prep. Outside of the Oaks has never put in a bad run. The discrepancy in SP's between her and Funstar today seemed bizarre.

Would be great to see her in Melb but I'm presuming they look at an Epsom/Golden Eagle path? Would be nice to see her on top of the ground one day again as well.

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Posted: 22 Aug 2020 at 5:52pm

Reckon you're right about the Epsom/Golden Eagle path Balciano.

Ok she's by Savabeel however she has a lot of speed on the dam side and might be better suited over 1600m.

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Posted: 23 Aug 2020 at 1:13am

We might see the nest make and female NZ four year old's in the Golden Eagle.

Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise

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Posted: 23 Aug 2020 at 11:22am

VOYAGER wrote:

We might see the nest make and female NZ four year old's in the Golden Eagle.

Hope you enjoyed the evening Voyager. LOL

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Posted: 30 Sep 2020 at 4:01pm

$8.50 and $3.10 available for her this afternoon for the Epsom.

Think it's an overreaction to the wide draw, if Mcevoy rides her cold and gets a cart into the race I think she's a terrific e/w play. Her Surround win on top of the ground sticks with me.

Mind you if they ran her in a Grand National I'd probably justify a way to back her. Love the mare.

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Posted: 30 Sep 2020 at 6:40pm

I am a huge fan Balciano but just a few questions.

1. Any doubts about her at 1600m? No doubt her best form is at 1400m.

2. Is she better early in her prep?

3. Where does she get in the run? Again I agree it is an overreaction to the barrier from the 1600m at Randwick, but she will need a lot to go right from the run she will get.

4. She meets the genuine group 1 WFA quality milers here. Is she up to that quality, again especially at the mile.

5. Only two mares to have won the race in recent times Secret Admirer and her majesty Winx. Do 4yo mares get in well at weights?

Personally she is to me a $6.00 chance but each to their own.

Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise

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Posted: 30 Sep 2020 at 7:21pm

History suggests she's just as good 3rd up as 1st up. And has had two starts at a mile for a win and a 2nd.

Not that I'm necessarily spruiking her for the Epsom.

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Posted: 01 Oct 2020 at 11:44am

I agree Voyager, I thought she was a $5.50 - $6 chance so the $8.50/$3.10 represented good value.

Her 2 runs at the Mile were a 2nd in the Flight which was just a dash home so was inconclusive, and a win in the Karaka Millions where they ran the 1600 in 1.33. She also hit the line hard 2nd in the Vinery over 2000. I think she's a genuine Miler.

Prep wise she was 3rd up into the Surround after her 2 NZ runs then a quick freshen up, and held her form through to the Vinery. I think the soft tracks add merit to her Autumn runs, the stable are adamant she's much better on top of the ground.

Quality wise I don't think there's any standouts in the field, Star of the Seas is a nice horse but there's no stars. The Very Elegant/Fierce Impact/Russian Camelot types are absent so with 2.5 kgs above the minimum I think both her and Funstar get in okay.

Having made that compelling case she'll probably come out and run 12th now. LOL

Good luck if you have a bet.

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Posted: 01 Oct 2020 at 11:56am

In her favour too is the fact her trainer repeatedly stated last Autumn that she hates any wet Thumbs Up

Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!

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Posted: 03 Oct 2020 at 5:14pm

I appreciate every second post on this thread is from myself and is reaching Rogan Josh levels of obsession. But absolutely love this Mare.

I'm probably not a big bettor compared to many on here but today was a fair go for me at the $8.50 e/w. Got the race pattern completely wrong, but she was still too good and great to see her and Funstar run 1-2 and continue their rivalry.

I wonder if they go Cox Plate or Golden Eagle next?

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Posted: 03 Oct 2020 at 5:22pm

Owner said he prefers the Cox Plate but will leave it to the trainer

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Posted: 03 Oct 2020 at 5:57pm

A Richards 1-2 in the Group 1 in NZ. Yes I backed Advantage!

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Posted: 03 Oct 2020 at 6:52pm

She's so genuine, always puts in.

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Posted: 03 Oct 2020 at 8:04pm

Balciano wrote:

I appreciate every second post on this thread is from myself and is reaching Rogan Josh levels of obsession. But absolutely love this Mare.

Good on you Balciano!

She deserves her place among the super Kiwi mares Heart

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Posted: 04 Oct 2020 at 7:01am

The reason I love this mare Balciano is because she proves that racing isn't the "sport of kings". Anyone on any budget can own a good one

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Posted: 04 Oct 2020 at 5:38pm

I think they should go to Golden Eagle. Its $7.5 million prizemoney and she would be very hard to beat.

On the other hand Cox Plate, less prizemoney & she wont be beating Russian Camelot over 2000 metres.

From a financial perspective, surely its a no brainer to go to Golden Eagle?

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Posted: 04 Oct 2020 at 10:12pm

Lopartega wrote:

The reason I love this mare Balciano is because she proves that racing isn't the "sport of kings". Anyone on any budget can own a good one

In relation to Probabell this makes exactly no sense

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Posted: 04 Oct 2020 at 10:12pm

Probabeel. Typo.

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Posted: 05 Oct 2020 at 3:34pm

Confirmed starter in the Cox Plate.

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Posted: 05 Oct 2020 at 6:25pm

Okay so that is why McEvoy decided to go into quarantine and miss the Golden Eagle, because she was aiming at the Cox Plate.

Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise

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Posted: 06 Oct 2020 at 11:36pm

mikey wrote:

I think they should go to Golden Eagle. Its $7.5 million prizemoney and she would be very hard to beat.

On the other hand Cox Plate, less prizemoney & she wont be beating Russian Camelot over 2000 metres.

From a financial perspective, surely its a no brainer to go to Golden Eagle?

Owner was extremely successful in business, so doubt the prizemoney comes into it. I'm guessing they are more excited about the opportunity to have a horse in the Cox Plate.

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Posted: 07 Oct 2020 at 1:52pm

From an article in the NZ Herald

Richards was happy to target either race but Lindsay and his wife Jo love the sporting side of horse racing and are trying to build on the legacy of Cambridge Stud which they purchased in 2017.

"We are building a museum here to honour all the great horses to have come off this farm and a Cox Plate would look pretty special there," says Brendan Lindsay.

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