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NRL 2021

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Topic: NRL 2021
Posted By: VOYAGER
Subject: NRL 2021
Date Posted: 09 Feb 2021 at 5:40pm
Alright we have left the cricket and NFL behind us and we are in the middle of an impacted Australian Open tennis, but we are now turning our attention to the winter football codes and so here is this years NRL thread.

This season sees a lot of questions being asked.

1. Can Trent Barret and the new recruits get them to the finals?

2. Are the Titans huge recruits going to stay and improve their performance, or will they succumb to the distractions on the Gold Coast, like most who play their have in the past?

3. Will Tigers fans get an improvement to actually finish higher than ninth, or will they regress and fall to the bottom of the ladder?

4. Can Tom Trbojvec play the whole season, and lead Manly to the finals?

5. Is Kevin Walters the man to improve the culture at Brisbane?

6. Will those who failed last year improve this year.? Players like Valentine Holmes, Mitchell Pearce, Micheal Morgan, Tyson Frizzell, James Roberts, Ben Hunt, and many others, let their fans down for a variety of reasons.

7. Can Mitchell Moses lay well for a whole season and lead the Parramatta side to at least a grand final spot?

8. Which team will fall from the eight? Will it be the Raiders due to John Bateman and Nick Cotirc leaving and Hodgson a half season player these days? Will it be the Panthers due to the youngsters who played well last year not backing up? Do Souths need their best 17 on the paddock with the depth being lessened with player movement. 

9. What is happening at the Storm with the hooker position? And will it impact on the unity in the squad?

10. Can the New Zealand Warriors bottle their strength and unity from last year and send Roger Tuivasa Shek to rugby with a season to remember?

11. Was Kyle Flanagan the actual problem that caused the Roosters to not make the grand final? I say no and I say the older members of their forward pack including the brave but stupid captain who looks like he will risk his health when he gets to 50 or 60 by continuing the career, need to be moved on and replaced with younger guys to help the guys who are younger. Also they need the other concussion prone player Keary to play the whole season. To me they lack some firepower outwide. Manu is either fantastic or hopeless, usually the later, Tupou is good at finishing but he does not go looking for the ball, he waits to be set up. The dynamic Morris brothers surely can not play as well as last year, although they are ageless so anything is possible. Their halves depth has been diminished. Do we think they can make the grand final?

12. Can one of the mediocre teams from last season push up to become contenders? teams like Manly, New Zealand, Cronulla, Newcastle, Wests Tigers and Gold Coast were all around the 8th to 13th teams and this group is usually the group where one will improve to become a top four team the next season.

All in all this is shaping up as a very intriguing season. The preview to come during the week.        


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Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise



Replies:
Posted By: ExceedAndExcel
Date Posted: 09 Feb 2021 at 5:56pm
Can’t wait for NRL (and AFL for that matter) to return. Looking forward to seeing what promotions the corporates will come up with this year. Hoping for the $2 lines to return with Ladbrokes but suspect they won’t or at the very least will have closed the loophole which made it VERY exploitable. Lead by 4 at half time you win, also a great promo so will be looking forward to it or some variant. 


Posted By: max manewer
Date Posted: 09 Feb 2021 at 8:34pm
Very open market with Betfair for the Premiership.  As for the Broncos, I would be surprised if they go deep, Walters touting Milford as the ace in his pack, well he must be showing something in private that hasn't been obvious on the field for a long time.


Posted By: Shrunk in the Wash
Date Posted: 10 Feb 2021 at 8:57am
Manly for the wooden spoon 


Posted By: Shrunk in the Wash
Date Posted: 10 Feb 2021 at 9:04am
Originally posted by Shrunk in the Wash Shrunk in the Wash wrote:

Manly for the wooden spoon 

Or the Sharks



Posted By: Carioca
Date Posted: 10 Feb 2021 at 11:48am
Year of the Rabbit. Wink


Posted By: Passing Through
Date Posted: 10 Feb 2021 at 12:25pm
Souffs off season.

New faces

Jai Arrow (Titans), Jacob Host (Dragons), Josh Mansour (Panthers), Benji Marshall (Wests Tigers), Taane Milne (Warriors), Tautau Moga (Knights)

2021 losses

Ethan Lowe (retired), James Roberts (Tigers), Bayley Sironen (Warriors), Jack Johns (Knights), Joseph Suaalii (Roosters), Corey Allan (Bulldogs), Tom Amone, Cory Denniss, Kurt Dillon, Ky Rodwell (released)



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Posted By: jujuno
Date Posted: 10 Feb 2021 at 12:29pm
Originally posted by Passing Through Passing Through wrote:

Souffs off season.

New faces

Jai Arrow (Titans), Jacob Host (Dragons), Josh Mansour (Panthers), Benji Marshall (Wests Tigers), Taane Milne (Warriors), Tautau Moga (Knights)

2021 losses

Ethan Lowe (retired), James Roberts (Tigers), Bayley Sironen (Warriors), Jack Johns (Knights), Joseph Suaalii (Roosters), Corey Allan (Bulldogs), Tom Amone, Cory Denniss, Kurt Dillon, Ky Rodwell (released)


 the only real loss from that second list is Corey Allan. I'd far prefer him at fullback than Mitchell...



 


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Desert War, Rain Lover, Latin Knight, Hay List, Mustard...my turf heroes...


Posted By: Passing Through
Date Posted: 10 Feb 2021 at 12:35pm
Remains to be seen if Suaali is a loss, but I note Fittler has added him to the expanded Origin squad to get the feel of the atmosphere. 

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Posted By: Shrunk in the Wash
Date Posted: 10 Feb 2021 at 1:24pm
Originally posted by Passing Through Passing Through wrote:

Remains to be seen if Suaali is a loss, but I note Fittler has added him to the expanded Origin squad to get the feel of the atmosphere. 

Part of the reason he walked out on Souths 
Freddy doing favours for uncle nick and his sombrero Wink


Posted By: TJMitchell
Date Posted: 10 Feb 2021 at 1:37pm
Excited to see Harry Grant at Storm this year

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Time is a flat circle


Posted By: Afros
Date Posted: 10 Feb 2021 at 8:59pm
Originally posted by Passing Through Passing Through wrote:

Remains to be seen if Suaali is a loss, but I note Fittler has added him to the expanded Origin squad to get the feel of the atmosphere. 

Big pressure on the kid already, had a name for two years and achieved nothing of note.


Posted By: marble
Date Posted: 15 Feb 2021 at 1:46pm
I see the storm are bailing of Victoria for the time being. Smart move but makes it difficult for family connections


Posted By: Shrunk in the Wash
Date Posted: 15 Feb 2021 at 9:32pm
Is Smithy joining them?


Posted By: Second Chance
Date Posted: 22 Feb 2021 at 5:47pm

Sad really on a couple of levels, Burgess in particular but also because most found Mitch Hooke to be a gifted agricultural industry lobbyist, but a quintessential assh2le at a personal level:

First this:

Former NRL star Sam Burgess will appeal a conviction for intimidating his former father-in-law during what the magistrate described as an angry, aggressive altercation that would have been “frightening for any Australian.”

Moss Vale Local Court magistrate Robert Rabbidge found on Friday morning Burgess had intimidated Mitchell Hooke at the family’s Glenquarry property in October 2019 with the intention of causing him physical and mental harm.

And now this:

Former NRL star Sam Burgess has allegedly failed a roadside drug test and has been charged with traffic offences in the New South Wales Southern Highlands.

Key points:

  • The ABC understands police will alleged Burgess tested positive for cocaine during a random drug test
  • Burgess is charged with driving without a valid NSW licence and using an unregistered vehicle
  • A second drug test has been sent for more analysis

Burgess, 32, was stopped in a BMW X5 at Braemar earlier this afternoon by highway patrol officers.

The ABC understands police will allege he tested positive for cocaine during a random drug test, with a second oral fluid test sample sent for further analysis.

He has been charged with driving without a valid NSW licence and using an unregistered vehicle and will face court in May.


On a couple of levels actually, particularly given most found Mitch Hooke to be a a top agricultural industry lobbyist, but a totally assh2le at a personal level.




Posted By: Tlazolteotl
Date Posted: 22 Feb 2021 at 5:55pm
What a d1ckhead.Ouch


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An honest politician is one who when he is bought will stay bought.

Simon Cameron



Posted By: Second Chance
Date Posted: 22 Feb 2021 at 6:14pm
Well maybe two sweethearts actually.  Smile


Posted By: VOYAGER
Date Posted: 27 Feb 2021 at 8:39pm
Okay I think we have our wooden spoon favorites St.George Illawarra.

I can see the coach coming under huge pressure early.


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Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise


Posted By: Carioca
Date Posted: 28 Feb 2021 at 12:52pm
Mmmmm Rabbits looking good lol, Mitchell medal material ?Wink


Posted By: Passing Through
Date Posted: 28 Feb 2021 at 1:04pm
Gotta get him fit and keep him happy carioca. The glow of the All Stars game will wear off.

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Posted By: Carioca
Date Posted: 28 Feb 2021 at 1:55pm
Might sound funny to some P T , but he has the midriff of big Artie lol , hut at this stage has a sorta " junior " look about it .LOL


Posted By: Carioca
Date Posted: 28 Feb 2021 at 1:57pm
* but at 'tis stage .


Posted By: Passing Through
Date Posted: 28 Feb 2021 at 2:08pm
Originally posted by Carioca Carioca wrote:

Might sound funny to some P T , but he has the midriff of big Artie lol , hut at this stage has a sorta " junior " look about it .LOL

People forget the great man Artie started out as a lithe center/winger. Pies and beer diet took care of that though.


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Posted By: Carioca
Date Posted: 28 Feb 2021 at 2:32pm
I made 3 sentimental journey's back to Randwick for the Autumn carnival /02-04 , stayed at a nice motel on Anzac PD just up from the Doncaster pub , had lunch there most days and Artie was always there playing euchre with his mates , lots of laughter from the table , iconic figure .


Posted By: Shrunk in the Wash
Date Posted: 28 Feb 2021 at 2:36pm
Latrell is fit and is a star


Posted By: Carioca
Date Posted: 28 Feb 2021 at 2:46pm
Wayne has to get inside his head and Stay there .Wink


Posted By: VOYAGER
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2021 at 10:15pm
Alright lets see where we sit from our season preview.

Rankings in order. Before we start my rankings suggest this will be a very close competition with 10 points between the top ten teams.

1. Penrith Panthers - 124. This is a hard rating, but again we do have to remember that the young players who came through and played brilliantly, and who most now have big contracts, could regress. They have lost a lot of depth and so if they get injuries they could be in some trouble. 
2. Roosters - 123. They have only lost Flanagan, but their rating depends on two players who have had issues over the last two seasons. Cordner and Keary need to be present and playing for the entire season. If these two players are missing for more than six games then this rating goes down significantly. You also have to be concerned about how the Morris brothers can play at last seasons level. I can see  them being able to grab enough wins to make the top four, and they have the experience to go far but I am just not sure they have the talent all over the field in the backs and forwards to win the comp.
3. Souths - 122. Too me they look very well placed to challenge for the premiership. I excellent top 17, they have lost Corey Allen to the Bulldogs but Josh Mansour is a good swap. Jai Arrow and Jacob Host cover the losses in the forwards. I think Bennett will also be feeling this may be his last realistic hope of a title, and I can see Marshall being a very good buy. For me they are the ones to beat.  
4. Parramatta -122. This is their season to make a charge at the premiership. Of course their are four key factors that need to be met to accomplish this. One, they need to find a way to either be peaking in the finals or to keep their early season form going for the whole year. Two they need their spine to be more consistently productive. In some games they can look like superstars but in others they can look like reserve graders. It is about time Moses, Brown and Mahoney helped Gutherson for the whole season, and not just a few matches. Third they need the young forwards such as Nikore and Lane to keep improving. And finally the team seem to have a lot of players who are more worried about off field issues. I understand we all have families and problems, but most of the issues that occur are self inflicted such as Micheal Jennings getting done for cocaine usage.
5. Canberra - 122. Okay we need one thing to be a chance, we need Hodgson to stay healthy for the whole season. When he is out of the side, the balance of the side is not tuned to its optimum level. Cotric is a huge loss and I still do not think Curtis Scott is a first grade quality centre, but with Papalli, Whitehead and Tapine leading the forwards and if we can get Ryan James healthy and back to somewhere near his best, then we can go close.
6. Melbourne - 121. They have lost Vunivalu and I am saying Cameron Smith does not play, selfish Christmas pudding. Sorry guys but for a person who ahs always said the club comes first he has shown his true nature by not making a decision. Anyway they have two ready made replacements for Smith. I still have a problem with their outside backs, but they did do the job last season. Their forward depth has been taken, but they seem to be able to overcome that as a club. They should be up for Bellamy's last campaign south so motivation and the quality they have make them hard to stop going back to back.
7. New Zealand - 120. This one was a surprise to me but there you go. Addin Fonua Blake is an upgrade, the young forwards were outstanding last season and with that full season back Maumolo and Fusit'ua should be able to recapture their best. I was impressed with the young hooker last year who gave good service to his halves. I have a concern about their coach, can he bring them together like Todd Payten did last season and you do have to think that they will be super motivated to send their captain off to rugby on a high note. They always seem to disappoint, and I do not think they can win the comp, but I can see them doing well.
8. Manly - 119. Again we have a team who needs Tom Trbojevic on the field. Foran can add value and be productive if he is healthy. Aloiai is a direct replacement for Fonua Blake. They have a deficiency in the hooking position, as the service from that area of the field is not great. They have a good backline so if the forwards can match their opponents then they will be in most matches.
9. Wests - 116. They are already 9th in the ratings and they can do well, but they are one of the many teams that need their best 17 on the field all season. Nofoluma had a sensational season last year, I would play Douehi at five eight and put someone else back at fullback, but hey that is just me. Tamou and Roberts do add something to this side, even if they might be beyond their best. Obviously the loss of Harry Grant is horrible, but Liddle is a capable hooker. 
10. Gold Coast - 115. They should improve on what they have done the past few seasons, but for me they will either make the top four or miss the eight. If you are a side that five rounds out from the semi finals are in a fight with five or six clubs for the final two finals spots, then you need to be professional and limit your unforced errors to give yourself a chance of winning the matches you need to. The two big buys in the off season are dynamic players, but they are younger players who have some errors in their game when they are under pressure. If they get off to a huge start and are safe in the top eight and injury free they can challenge for the title.
11. Newcastle - 110. I am sorry Knights fans but I can not see where they improve this year. The addition of Frizzell makes their forward pack more productive and the young backs have another season under their belt, but I am not seeing any improvement from their senior players. Ponga, Pearce, Klemmer and Green are good players but their previous best has not been good enough and I am not seeing any way they can improve on that. Daniel Saifiti can continue to develop and Bradman Best is getting more seasoned and Edrick Lee had his best season last year, but they will be in the fight for seventh and eight at best.
12. StGeorge Illawarra - 109. This is the wooden spoon favorite. The teams below them all have something that can elevate them off their rating. This is a hard rating for the Dragons, which means I can not see how they improve, unless their younger players develop quickly. The only player who gets anywhere near a 10 out of 10 is Paul Vaughan, but just like Payne Haas at Broncos, he needs help from the others. If De Belin can come back even though he missed all last season he would add a point or two. If Norman and Hunt got their finger out they have the upper rating to improve the score, and Lomax and Dufty are talented but to my eye they are still developing. The forwards are among the worst packs in the comp and that falls even further when the interchange comes into effect during matches. As I stated above for me they are the spoon favs with the Cowboys.
13. Cronulla - 104. This team have fallen hard in the last two seasons. The youngsters have not come on as well as expected, the club have brought well at the time, but Moylan, Dugan, Woods and Johnson have not delivered on the big contracts. Fifita has leveled off his improvement and Ramien had that year off at Newcastle. The fact the their best young back since Ettingshausen will be out for four years because of a stupid decision. Again a team which ahs only one player who gets near a 10 and that is Wade Graham and he had injury troubles last year. I think Morris could be the first couach off the ranks this season.
14. Brisbane -104. This is a soft score, because they do have young talent who could develop unexpectedly this season. Staggs was a highlight for them last year making the State Of Origin. Payne Haas needs some help as he can not win forward battles himself. Lodge is in a performance plateau, he is doing his job but the Broncos need him to improve. It would be handy if Pengai Jr worried more about football than riding around on bikes with his so called mates. The halves are a huge problem and I am not seeing a genuine fullback in the squad. Problems all over the place, but Kevin Walters will do his best, whether that is good enough to improve the clubs position on the table is unclear.
15. North Queensland - 103. Can not see any areas of improvement for this squad. I am seeing Taumalolo starting to wind down his performance duration, not unexpected as he has not had any help from his fellow forwards for about three seasons. Morgan is a week to week proposition, they have no five eight, which is why they should move Holmes there and put the young guy Tabuai Fidow, in at fullback, his few games last year were signs that he could be as good as Matt Bowen. The forwards
are one of the most underachieving packs in the comp with Jordan McLean going from being a top four prop in the world to barely being able to make first grade. Along with the dragons they are spoon favorites.
16. Canterbury - 100. This is a very soft score. Some of the youngsters look like they are developing, the loss of Foran is huge, but they do get Flanagan who will not be as capable, but he is coming on. Luke Thompson has had the half season now and he has apparently settled in very well, and he could be a big improver. Cory Allen and Nick Cotric are good buys from the Rabbits and canberra respectively and with Zelezniak onto the wing that gives the backline a more balanced look. This team is another where the coach is vital. He was a polarising figure at Manly and if he gets off to a bad start with the players, so in other words if his game plans and training schedule are not successful early, it will see them have a long season with no improvement. 

Preliminary Finals.

Souths vs Parramatta
Melbourne vs Canberra

Grand Final

Souths vs Canberra

Premiers

South Sydney

Most Improved Team

New Zealand

Biggest Disappointment

Cronulla

Dally M Winner

A.J.Brimson

First Coach Shown The Door

John Morris

Biggest Story

Boyd Cordner forced to retire after his tenth concussion.

Most improved player

I am expecting big things this season from the young Cowboy Hamiso Tabuai Fidow, especially if they start him at fullback.

Most decline in performance from a player

James Luai.

Good luck to all clubs and fans for 2021 Thumbs Up


                             


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Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise


Posted By: max manewer
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2021 at 10:51pm
I think the place to look is the leadership of these teams, teams without a solid leadership core don't do well. Looking at the Broncos, I can't see anything that could masquerade as leadership. Walters looks worried already, and the season hasn't even started !


Posted By: Carioca
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2021 at 10:59pm
Great coverage Voyager , it's opened my eyes a bit as I haven't been following player movements , in my footy tips I'll refer back to this. Star


Posted By: Tlazolteotl
Date Posted: 03 Mar 2021 at 7:37am
Cordner won't be playing the whole season. He won't play till June.


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An honest politician is one who when he is bought will stay bought.

Simon Cameron



Posted By: ExceedAndExcel
Date Posted: 03 Mar 2021 at 8:18am
Great preview Voyager! Thumbs Up


Posted By: Rhino
Date Posted: 03 Mar 2021 at 8:53am
Great preview Voyager. I note you rate the Raiders highly. I was lucky enough to tour their new performance centre a few weeks back. It is outstanding, making lack of preparation no concern. However, I just think their roster is a couple of quality players short for mine. Think they just scrape into the top 8. 


Posted By: VOYAGER
Date Posted: 03 Mar 2021 at 7:11pm
I agree Rhino, but I think that if Hodgson can stay on the field and the English half can improve off his good season, then they can at least get into the grand final.

I concede that the couple of stars that are missing are John Bateman (gone back to England) and Nick Cotric (over to the Bulldogs), but we have a good forward rotation and as long as Hodgson is healthy they have a good spine. 

I still think they are as a team better overall than say Parramatta, who have a number of players who can look like champions one week and then reserve graders the next. That is why they find the finals hard, because they can not win four games in a row when the pressure is on. At least you know the Raiders will show up every week, and you have to beat them as they will not give you cheap points.     


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Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise


Posted By: Rhino
Date Posted: 04 Mar 2021 at 10:09am
Bateman and Cotric are a big lose, and yes I'm a massive Hodgson fan. I really think the key to the Raiders (like most teams) is keeping their spine healthy. They are strong in that area and if Wighton fires they will have a good year. 


Posted By: Shrunk in the Wash
Date Posted: 04 Mar 2021 at 10:18am
Anyone here play supercoach or Fantasy?


Posted By: ExceedAndExcel
Date Posted: 09 Mar 2021 at 4:00pm
Season starts on Thursday night and as expected there’s a few bookie promos worth taking advantage of. So here’s a quick update of what I have seen so far:


Sportsbet – Head to head market – get paid out as a winner if your team scores a try in the first 5 minutes. First $250 staked. 

 

This is marginally profitable. More so if you have access to two accounts and can cover both teams with the promo. The edge here is when your team scores in the first 5 but goes on to lose the game. This occurred in 19 out of 169 games (11.25%) last year and likely to be similar again this year with the 6-again rule still in play. There will be long runs of outs if backing both teams but this is the way to play it. Consider combining this with the Pointsbet promo below.

 

Pointsbet – head to head market – get paid out as a winner if your team leads by 4+ at half time. First $150 staked.

 

This promo has been around in a couple of different forms across a few different books in past seasons and it is a decent winner. Again, the edge in this promo is when you get paid out at half time and your team goes on to lose. My stats show that with a lead by 4+ payout, this occurs just over 15% of the time. Bet the underdogs here and then back the favourite to return the same amount with another book. You will lose a small amount when your team doesn’t lead then lose but will win much more than enough when it does occur. Only bet games where your effective odds at >20-1 (this will be most games).

 

NOTE: Pointsbet will promo ban you quickly. If you put through a lot of other action you may survive longer.

 

TAB – Thursday & Friday night games - Head to head market – win by 6 get double winnings in bonus bets up to $50.


Games are decided by 6 or more in around 75% of games so this is an obviously profitable play given these markets are framed around the 106% mark. Keep it simple and just back whatever team you like but only for a stake that gives a $50 profit. 


Other – I have alluded to something else previously but will not be discussing it publicly. It is simply too good to have it out there well known. If anyone has some idea and could be bothered sending me a private message I MAY discuss there but really, this really is the golden goose and the less people know about it the better. Quite frankly I can’t believe it is still available.



Posted By: ExceedAndExcel
Date Posted: 10 Mar 2021 at 11:02am
Originally posted by ExceedAndExcel ExceedAndExcel wrote:

Season starts on Thursday night and as expected there’s a few bookie promos worth taking advantage of. So here’s a quick update of what I have seen so far:


Sportsbet – Head to head market – get paid out as a winner if your team scores a try in the first 5 minutes. First $250 staked. 

 

This is marginally profitable. More so if you have access to two accounts and can cover both teams with the promo. The edge here is when your team scores in the first 5 but goes on to lose the game. This occurred in 19 out of 169 games (11.25%) last year and likely to be similar again this year with the 6-again rule still in play. There will be long runs of outs if backing both teams but this is the way to play it. Consider combining this with the Pointsbet promo below.

 

Pointsbet – head to head market – get paid out as a winner if your team leads by 4+ at half time. First $150 staked.

 

This promo has been around in a couple of different forms across a few different books in past seasons and it is a decent winner. Again, the edge in this promo is when you get paid out at half time and your team goes on to lose. My stats show that with a lead by 4+ payout, this occurs just over 15% of the time. Bet the underdogs here and then back the favourite to return the same amount with another book. You will lose a small amount when your team doesn’t lead then lose but will win much more than enough when it does occur. Only bet games where your effective odds at >20-1 (this will be most games).

 

NOTE: Pointsbet will promo ban you quickly. If you put through a lot of other action you may survive longer.

 

TAB – Thursday & Friday night games - Head to head market – win by 6 get double winnings in bonus bets up to $50.


Games are decided by 6 or more in around 75% of games so this is an obviously profitable play given these markets are framed around the 106% mark. Keep it simple and just back whatever team you like but only for a stake that gives a $50 profit. 


Other – I have alluded to something else previously but will not be discussing it publicly. It is simply too good to have it out there well known. If anyone has some idea and could be bothered sending me a private message I MAY discuss there but really, this really is the golden goose and the less people know about it the better. Quite frankly I can’t believe it is still available.




Bet365 - head to head market - get paid out if your team leads by 16+ - no max stake that I can see. 

This one came through this morning and they really shouldn’t have bothered. It’s just marketing spin and basically worthless. It will help you lose less on the race occasion when you get paid out and your team ends up losing. Basically don’t bother except maybe if you are combining it with another promo elsewhere. Don’t expect much.


Posted By: ExceedAndExcel
Date Posted: 10 Mar 2021 at 2:43pm
So Cameron Smith finally announced his retirement earlier today. One part of me says “about time” while another thinks he should have NEVER announced it. Would have perhaps left a kind of mythical aura over him for the rest of his days. He’s not retired, he just doesn’t play anymore. 

In any event, well done to him on an incredible career!


Posted By: max manewer
Date Posted: 10 Mar 2021 at 2:47pm
Wasn't in a hurry, was he.


Posted By: Second Chance
Date Posted: 10 Mar 2021 at 5:37pm
And in the meantime, more of the same.  At least he didn't allegedly bite a woman on the vulva.  Shocked

Injured Sydney Roosters star Victor Radley has been given a suspended $20,000 fine and a two-match ban following his involvement in an incident in Byron Bay last December.  The NRL determined Radley breached the game's code of conduct after tackling a person in a street on the evening of December 30, reportedly outside a house party.

As well as the ban, which is academic given the 22-year-old is still recovering from an knee injury sustained last season, Radley has been given a $20,000 fine, 50 per cent of which is suspended for 12 months.

The back rower will also have to undertake an appropriate education and training course, with the NRL saying the penalty reflected his conduct as well as his failure to report the incident.  The NRL said Radley had accepted the breach notice and apologised for his actions.



Posted By: VOYAGER
Date Posted: 10 Mar 2021 at 11:03pm
Okay lets see where our ratings have landed for round one, always remembering that upsets are going to happen the first month of a competition.

Thursday
 
Melbourne vs South Sydney. Both teams have basically their best sides going around. Maybe Melbourne will rework their backline, but I unless a youngster comes through Jennings and Smith should hold their spots for the season. Bet = Melbourne to win @$1.95.

Friday

Brisbane vs Parramatta. Can not see a upset here. The Eels are fielding their best, with Jennings out and no better option at this time for his center position. Brisbane have Kitoni Staggs and Payne Haas out so for me this will be a huge win for the Blue and Gold. Bet = Parramatta giving 8.5 start @$1.90.

Newcastle vs Canterbury. Newcastle are vulnerable here, and this is one match which I think will see an upset. Newcastle are already not that great with their top seventeen, but with both Kayln Ponga and Lachlan Fitzgibbon missing that talent drops markedly. The Bulldogs will be set for a match which they will look at and giove themselves a hope in. If they can limit the unforced errors and give Corey Allan, Nick Cotric and Zelezniak oppotunities, then they can score the win. Of course they have Luke Thompson out but they can cover that. Bet = Canterbury with 5.5 points start @$1.90

New Zealand vs Gold Coast. Here is our other upset. I am seeing Gold Coast being priced on hype. I think it will take a few rounds for the team to play well with the new recruits. I see that the coach has selected Corey Thompson in front of Phillip Sami who is coming off a great origin series. No knock on Thompson, I actually think he is a very good player, but that might be a downgrade for me. And I also see Ese'ese, is not on the interchange so the coach is going with the forwards from the end of last season and making him work his way into the team. With the Warriors just about at full strength and the motivation to get their captains last season off to a good start, I can sense the upset coming. Bet = New Zealand getting 3.5 start @$1.90.

Sydney Roosters vs Manly. I think Manly will get close, but the Roosters should begin this campaign on a winning note. I need to see how Lachlan Lam is playing and how he will be used, and no Victor Radley, gives Manly some hope. Bet = Roosters to win @$1.29

Penrith vs North Queensland. No joy here for Cowboys fans. While the Panthers have lost Tamou and Mansour the young developing players who have stepped in are good first graders, with potential to improve. The Cowboys still have Drinkwater at fullback, when Tabui Fidow needs to gets into the game as much as possible. The Cowboys might stay with the Panthers for 60 minutes but the last quarter of the match will be tough. Bet = Penrith giving 9.5 start @$1.90

Canberra vs Wests Tigers. Canberra can be slow starters to a competition and the Tigers will be wanting to show the comp they can mix it with the better teams. No Croker for the Raiders and of course Cotric and Bateman are no longer there so this will be a good test for them early on. Bet = Canberra to win @$1.29. The Tigers may cover the 9.5 start @$1.90.

StGeorge Illawarra vs Cronulla. I was all set to make Cronulla a good bet here, but no Johnson and maybe no Fifita. The young forwards need to have come on and help Woods and Graham, and it would help if Moylan and Dugan got their finger out. With no Norman and the team needing to find their rhythym with new recruits, the Dragons will need a miracle. Bet = Cronulla to win @$1.65.

         


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Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise


Posted By: max manewer
Date Posted: 10 Mar 2021 at 11:42pm
I expect the Cowboys to improve this season. I like the way Payten is shaping, new broom sweeps clean, I am not sure Green was as good as two GF appearances suggest, I would put that more down to the human dynamo Thurston, one of the all time great players and leaders.


Posted By: Tlazolteotl
Date Posted: 11 Mar 2021 at 9:43am
Melbourne without Cameron Smith - how will it go? I hope the 2008 Grand Final is not a pointer. Confused

Slater + Folau + Inglis + Cronk - Smith = -40


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An honest politician is one who when he is bought will stay bought.

Simon Cameron



Posted By: Baghdad Bob
Date Posted: 11 Mar 2021 at 12:03pm
2008 that was only 13 years ago Wink
Those players have now come and gone, do not be concerned, as in all sports a new generation comes along. Papenhuyzen, Munster, Addo-Carr, Hughes, Welch, Smith , Grant etc will still have Storm up there vying for another premiership. One bookie has them $6.00 to win this year, only $1.00 less than the favourites Penrith.


Posted By: Tlazolteotl
Date Posted: 12 Mar 2021 at 8:48am
Storm looked great for the 15 minutes I watched. Game was over then so I watched something else. Souths looked like a slow motion version of rugby league.


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An honest politician is one who when he is bought will stay bought.

Simon Cameron



Posted By: Baghdad Bob
Date Posted: 12 Mar 2021 at 9:02am
Barring inevitable injuries with Grant and Finucane back into last night’s team Storm will prove a team to beat for the premiership.


Posted By: Passing Through
Date Posted: 12 Mar 2021 at 9:10am
As they say Bob, one swallow does not make a summer.

Long season ahead. They will have  to get Brandon Smith to play 80 minutes as his predecessor did?  


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Posted By: Passing Through
Date Posted: 12 Mar 2021 at 9:28am
Souths ran through the Storm outside backline pretty easily after they worked out how vulnerable they were. Vunivalu a big loss I think.

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Posted By: Rhino
Date Posted: 12 Mar 2021 at 10:04am
What was clear to me last night is that Melbourne will need Harry Grant at 9 asap. The service out of dummy half was ordinary in the back half of the game, which led to many mistakes. Souths will be up there in the top 4. 


Posted By: TJMitchell
Date Posted: 12 Mar 2021 at 10:51am
Harry Grant back is a must. Ryan Pap will be the leagues top scorer this year. That first half from Storm was electric. 

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Time is a flat circle


Posted By: TIGER
Date Posted: 12 Mar 2021 at 10:59am
Originally posted by Passing Through Passing Through wrote:

As they say Bob, one swallow does not make a summer.

Long season ahead. They will have  to get Brandon Smith to play 80 minutes as his predecessor did?  
With Harry Grant coming back, Smith will play more of a lock role and cover Grant when he goes off after 60

Melbourne just keep producing the goods year after year


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EAD


Posted By: Passing Through
Date Posted: 12 Mar 2021 at 11:31am
I was under the impression Brandon Smith stayed at Storm on the understanding he was to be no 9, a job he has waited 2 years for.

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Posted By: TJMitchell
Date Posted: 12 Mar 2021 at 11:44am
Bellamy said Grant would have started if not for the injury. Smith has 3 weeks to show he deserves the spot.

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Time is a flat circle


Posted By: max manewer
Date Posted: 12 Mar 2021 at 11:49am
Remarkable to think you were taking evens Souths, when their record in Melbourne is abysmal


Posted By: TJMitchell
Date Posted: 12 Mar 2021 at 11:52am
Storm hasn't lost in round 1 for (checks notes) 300 years

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Time is a flat circle


Posted By: Passing Through
Date Posted: 12 Mar 2021 at 12:00pm
Shouldn't count all the years they were caught cheating the salary cap. 

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Posted By: TJMitchell
Date Posted: 12 Mar 2021 at 12:08pm
Still didn't lose the game



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Time is a flat circle


Posted By: Passing Through
Date Posted: 12 Mar 2021 at 12:10pm
Won with an illegally obtained advantage.

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Posted By: TJMitchell
Date Posted: 12 Mar 2021 at 12:15pm
That's not losing

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Time is a flat circle


Posted By: max manewer
Date Posted: 12 Mar 2021 at 12:15pm
Melbourne seems to have a "shock troops" strategy of using their speed men, some of the fastest in the game, to rack up early points and put the opposition off-balance. By the time Souths re-grouped, they were too far behind.


Posted By: Passing Through
Date Posted: 12 Mar 2021 at 12:15pm
From memory they were stripped of the current year's points when exposed, so that one doesn't count, stripped of all trophies for the other seasons they cheated but apparently kept their points. They should have all gone.

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Posted By: TJMitchell
Date Posted: 12 Mar 2021 at 12:24pm
Didn't lose the game

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Time is a flat circle


Posted By: jujuno
Date Posted: 12 Mar 2021 at 2:40pm
Originally posted by Passing Through Passing Through wrote:

Won with an illegally obtained advantage.

 Are you referring to your own bunch of salary rorters?

 Big smile


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Desert War, Rain Lover, Latin Knight, Hay List, Mustard...my turf heroes...


Posted By: Passing Through
Date Posted: 12 Mar 2021 at 2:49pm
Shocked

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Posted By: jujuno
Date Posted: 12 Mar 2021 at 2:55pm
Originally posted by Tlazolteotl Tlazolteotl wrote:

Storm looked great for the 15 minutes I watched. Game was over then so I watched something else. Souths looked like a slow motion version of rugby league.

 We'll still be round about, when the last post is played...but will once again miss the big bikkies. The forwards don't have enough ingenuity to do more than tackle and take it up...Cook excepted, though he was very quiet last night. The whole team looked like tortoises in the first twenty minutes. 

 What gets me, as usual, was all the 'Mitchell hype'. 

 "Great pass from Latrell..." (Benji Marshall set it up)

  "Mitchell did it all..."(Cody Walker threw the defining pass)

   then, Mitchell drops the ball under pressure...no comment...

  It gets irritating.  

Ouch   


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Desert War, Rain Lover, Latin Knight, Hay List, Mustard...my turf heroes...


Posted By: Passing Through
Date Posted: 12 Mar 2021 at 2:58pm
What shocked me was Johns saying how fit he looked. He kept tucking his overhanging guts into his shorts and pulling his jumper down to cover it up.

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Posted By: TJMitchell
Date Posted: 12 Mar 2021 at 3:00pm
Pretty sure I saw ch9 give him BOG, or at least someone did

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Time is a flat circle


Posted By: jujuno
Date Posted: 12 Mar 2021 at 3:04pm
 oh, to have a fit and competent fullback....oh wait, we did have one, but shuffled him off to Belmore...

 Mitchell should be in the centres, where less drops will occur...hopefully...and his subtle 'brilliant' passes might be an asset. 

 Will never be more than just an average fullback...

 


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Desert War, Rain Lover, Latin Knight, Hay List, Mustard...my turf heroes...


Posted By: jujuno
Date Posted: 12 Mar 2021 at 3:06pm
Originally posted by TJMitchell TJMitchell wrote:

Pretty sure I saw ch9 give him BOG, or at least someone did

 don't they always...?
  



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Desert War, Rain Lover, Latin Knight, Hay List, Mustard...my turf heroes...


Posted By: Passing Through
Date Posted: 12 Mar 2021 at 3:06pm
Robbo told him that at the Chooks so he sooked off to Souths.

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Posted By: ExceedAndExcel
Date Posted: 12 Mar 2021 at 10:15pm
Originally posted by ExceedAndExcel ExceedAndExcel wrote:

Originally posted by ExceedAndExcel ExceedAndExcel wrote:

Season starts on Thursday night and as expected there’s a few bookie promos worth taking advantage of. So here’s a quick update of what I have seen so far:


Sportsbet – Head to head market – get paid out as a winner if your team scores a try in the first 5 minutes. First $250 staked. 

 

This is marginally profitable. More so if you have access to two accounts and can cover both teams with the promo. The edge here is when your team scores in the first 5 but goes on to lose the game. This occurred in 19 out of 169 games (11.25%) last year and likely to be similar again this year with the 6-again rule still in play. There will be long runs of outs if backing both teams but this is the way to play it. Consider combining this with the Pointsbet promo below.

 

Pointsbet – head to head market – get paid out as a winner if your team leads by 4+ at half time. First $150 staked.

 

This promo has been around in a couple of different forms across a few different books in past seasons and it is a decent winner. Again, the edge in this promo is when you get paid out at half time and your team goes on to lose. My stats show that with a lead by 4+ payout, this occurs just over 15% of the time. Bet the underdogs here and then back the favourite to return the same amount with another book. You will lose a small amount when your team doesn’t lead then lose but will win much more than enough when it does occur. Only bet games where your effective odds at >20-1 (this will be most games).

 

NOTE: Pointsbet will promo ban you quickly. If you put through a lot of other action you may survive longer.

 

TAB – Thursday & Friday night games - Head to head market – win by 6 get double winnings in bonus bets up to $50.


Games are decided by 6 or more in around 75% of games so this is an obviously profitable play given these markets are framed around the 106% mark. Keep it simple and just back whatever team you like but only for a stake that gives a $50 profit. 


Other – I have alluded to something else previously but will not be discussing it publicly. It is simply too good to have it out there well known. If anyone has some idea and could be bothered sending me a private message I MAY discuss there but really, this really is the golden goose and the less people know about it the better. Quite frankly I can’t believe it is still available.




Bet365 - head to head market - get paid out if your team leads by 16+ - no max stake that I can see. 

This one came through this morning and they really shouldn’t have bothered. It’s just marketing spin and basically worthless. It will help you lose less on the race occasion when you get paid out and your team ends up losing. Basically don’t bother except maybe if you are combining it with another promo elsewhere. Don’t expect much.




Great start for anyone playing these. They have all hit so far with the TAB one hitting in all three games. Personally the Bulldogs were a great result tonight when they went over in the 4th minute. Shame the Broncos took 10 to get their first or it would have been a real fill up!


Posted By: Rhino
Date Posted: 13 Mar 2021 at 8:42am
Don't think we saw the premiers last night. To my eye, those two games seemed to be way down on quality compared to Thursday. 


Posted By: Carioca
Date Posted: 13 Mar 2021 at 12:37pm
I'm with you there Rhino , early doors but we got spoilt from the night before .


Posted By: Passing Through
Date Posted: 13 Mar 2021 at 1:02pm
Roosters will show why they are under the odds at $6 for the title tonight.

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Posted By: jujuno
Date Posted: 13 Mar 2021 at 7:29pm
Originally posted by Rhino Rhino wrote:

Don't think we saw the premiers last night. To my eye, those two games seemed to be way down on quality compared to Thursday. 

 The Parra/ Brisbane game was a shocker. And, as usual, the bunker erred. The last Brissie try disallowed was actually a score. They see things no-one else does. 

 I think one can pick the final 8 pretty easily. 

 Chooks, Storm, Penrith, Canberra, Rabbits, Warriors, Parra (courtesy of refs decisions) and Newcastle, the last named being the only doubtful one...but I can't see the other teams being any better. 

 Beer 


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Desert War, Rain Lover, Latin Knight, Hay List, Mustard...my turf heroes...


Posted By: Rhino
Date Posted: 14 Mar 2021 at 9:50am
Nice to see you give the Warriors a chance JJ, and they burst the Titans bubble yesterday. Warriors have become one of my favourite teams after the turmoil they put up with last season. My fear is if they have to stay in Oz for the entire year, then they will understandably fall to pieces. Hard to argue with your other selections.


Posted By: max manewer
Date Posted: 14 Mar 2021 at 10:12am
Cowboys played a mistake-riddled game that gave them no possession, and no chance, not much has changed.


Posted By: jujuno
Date Posted: 14 Mar 2021 at 1:03pm
Originally posted by Rhino Rhino wrote:

Nice to see you give the Warriors a chance JJ, and they burst the Titans bubble yesterday. Warriors have become one of my favourite teams after the turmoil they put up with last season. My fear is if they have to stay in Oz for the entire year, then they will understandably fall to pieces. Hard to argue with your other selections.

 They are booked into Terrigal for the season, staying at the Star of the Sea resort, once again. I know, because I can't get any dates between March and September. 

 If you have to be away from home, it's a nice place to go. 

  


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Desert War, Rain Lover, Latin Knight, Hay List, Mustard...my turf heroes...


Posted By: Shrunk in the Wash
Date Posted: 14 Mar 2021 at 2:22pm
Originally posted by Passing Through Passing Through wrote:

What shocked me was Johns saying how fit he looked. He kept tucking his overhanging guts into his shorts and pulling his jumper down to cover it up.


Hilarious comment. An absolute nonsense to boot. Just get over the fact he left your mob.Wink

He was great the other night, surrounded by and complimented by the others around him
He’s in for a great season Star


Posted By: Passing Through
Date Posted: 14 Mar 2021 at 2:27pm
I am glad he left and wish him well, but he is a ticking time bomb and Souffs problem now.

-------------


Posted By: Passing Through
Date Posted: 14 Mar 2021 at 2:28pm
With him demanding to play fullback, why would Chooks pick him over Tedesco, ever?

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Posted By: Shrunk in the Wash
Date Posted: 14 Mar 2021 at 2:31pm
Wish him well? That’s why you focused on his supposed weight rather than the skill set he displayed LOL


Posted By: Shrunk in the Wash
Date Posted: 14 Mar 2021 at 3:27pm
Why are the magpies about to play in blue?


Posted By: Passing Through
Date Posted: 14 Mar 2021 at 3:59pm
You drunk already? 

I am colour blind but even I can tell blue from gold black and white.


-------------


Posted By: Shrunk in the Wash
Date Posted: 14 Mar 2021 at 4:08pm
Ore game interviews. Must have been some sort of pre game training jumper


Posted By: Shrunk in the Wash
Date Posted: 14 Mar 2021 at 4:09pm
It was at the Pre game interviews. Must have been some sort of pre game training jumper


Posted By: max manewer
Date Posted: 14 Mar 2021 at 4:19pm
Don't cop that shrunk, drunk "already" ! Shocked


Posted By: max manewer
Date Posted: 14 Mar 2021 at 4:21pm
Amusing to be looking at the progress scores on Foxtel NRL live scores, the score goes up, then you can bac a few minutes later, and see it has gone backwards, this new rule seems to be a bit too much.


Posted By: Passing Through
Date Posted: 14 Mar 2021 at 4:32pm
I like it. Moves the game faster with first action being to award the try and only get a review if bunker calls for one rather than every bloody try being reviewed up front.

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Posted By: Shrunk in the Wash
Date Posted: 14 Mar 2021 at 4:36pm
Originally posted by max manewer max manewer wrote:

Don't cop that shrunk, drunk "already" ! Shocked

PT, reacts like that mate, especially when one has his numberWink

Only got to see him avoid my question in the Biden thread to know that. He hates being challenged 


Posted By: Passing Through
Date Posted: 14 Mar 2021 at 4:38pm
Drunk is better than other options.

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Posted By: VOYAGER
Date Posted: 14 Mar 2021 at 4:41pm
Originally posted by jujuno jujuno wrote:

Originally posted by Rhino Rhino wrote:

Nice to see you give the Warriors a chance JJ, and they burst the Titans bubble yesterday. Warriors have become one of my favourite teams after the turmoil they put up with last season. My fear is if they have to stay in Oz for the entire year, then they will understandably fall to pieces. Hard to argue with your other selections.

 They are booked into Terrigal for the season, staying at the Star of the Sea resort, once again. I know, because I can't get any dates between March and September. 

 If you have to be away from home, it's a nice place to go. 

  

I often find my cynical side coming out here Rhino.

All the experts say that the Warriors can not do any good if they stay here all season. Did they not see their last six matches last year. This is a group of men who have formed a very connected bond and their families are with them this year and with that being the case they will not lose any players going back home. 

The difference is the coach, and the fact that a couple of the forwards who did well last year have moved Papilil to Parramatta and Jack Hetherington to Bulldogs, but they have brought well in Sironen and Fonua Blake to offset those loses.

I see nothing but good times for the Warriors to send off the much respected captain to rugby with a good season. 


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Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise


Posted By: jujuno
Date Posted: 14 Mar 2021 at 6:27pm
Originally posted by Shrunk in the Wash Shrunk in the Wash wrote:

Wish him well? That’s why you focused on his supposed weight rather than the skill set he displayed LOL

 if you think he's fit, then you need glasses.

 As for his skills, he has lovely hands and good timing, but he also spills the pill often, goes missing when you think he should pop up, and is often out of position in defence, while playing full-back. It wasn't as noticeable when he played centre. 

 I'm not an advocate for learning on the job and fullback is an intuitive and skilled position. The best fullbacks played their entire careers there. 

   


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Desert War, Rain Lover, Latin Knight, Hay List, Mustard...my turf heroes...


Posted By: Passing Through
Date Posted: 16 Mar 2021 at 7:54am
Roosters 17yo signing Joseph Suaalii has been cleared to play prior to his 18th birthday.

Dont think in practical terms it will make much difference as he wont be replacing Morris or Manu any time soon, and even if one of them is injured I doubt Robbo would throw him in the deep end. 


-------------


Posted By: Tlazolteotl
Date Posted: 16 Mar 2021 at 11:35am
So why did the NRL break their own rule to accommodate Easts?

"In striking the deal, the Roosters have agreed to create a wellbeing and mentoring plan, a gambling and alcohol management plan and an assurance Suaalii completes year 12."

Ha ha. With an ATAR of 20. He only goes to school 2 days a week now.


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An honest politician is one who when he is bought will stay bought.

Simon Cameron



Posted By: Passing Through
Date Posted: 16 Mar 2021 at 11:42am
If he is that bad at school he is unlikely to get a job that will match the $1m a year 3 year contract he is supposed to be on.

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Posted By: Shrunk in the Wash
Date Posted: 16 Mar 2021 at 2:12pm
Originally posted by Tlazolteotl Tlazolteotl wrote:

So why did the NRL break their own rule to accommodate Easts?
.

They were given a few sombreros from uncle nicks boot


Posted By: jujuno
Date Posted: 16 Mar 2021 at 4:54pm
Originally posted by Tlazolteotl Tlazolteotl wrote:

So why did the NRL break their own rule to accommodate Easts?

"In striking the deal, the Roosters have agreed to create a wellbeing and mentoring plan, a gambling and alcohol management plan and an assurance Suaalii completes year 12."

Ha ha. With an ATAR of 20. He only goes to school 2 days a week now.

 why does V'Landys let Uncle Nick do anything he damned well wants...????

 Power and money...

 it's sickening how they always get everything they want.

 One day, someone will have the guts to spill the beans on the cap-rorting at Bondi Junction. 

Angry




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Desert War, Rain Lover, Latin Knight, Hay List, Mustard...my turf heroes...


Posted By: VOYAGER
Date Posted: 16 Mar 2021 at 7:55pm
I am sorry but I have to say something about this.

Todd Payten is being praised for ridiculing Taumalolo for not puting pressure on a kicker from dummy half, and that is why he was left off the field for a long period.

This coach is puting his or JT's spot at the club in jeopardy.

Form what I saw there were three Cowboys players closer than Taumalolo to the kicker who should have put pressure on the kicker, yet he ridicules, in public his only good player.

The fact that the rest of his forwards tackled well, but they offered no assistance in attack and if he thinks Taumalolo is his worst player, that deserved to be ridiculed more than the player he concentrated on.

The fact he is not selecting the next Matt Bowen at fullback and had him in the centers, where the player had never played before, and he has a non-first grader there and also has the experience sitting on the bench in Granville and Maguire against one of the best forward packs in the comp in the first round.

If the coach wants to take on JT off the field, I know which one the Cowboys will be asking to leave first. After doing a great job in bringing the Warriors together late last season he is surprising me with this sort of behavior.

I am also finding it hard to reason why the media are saying he is doing the right thing. They must be well connected to him because he is walking a dangerous path.   



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Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise


Posted By: VOYAGER
Date Posted: 16 Mar 2021 at 8:00pm
Sorry guys that should read, the fact was the rest of his forwards tackled well, but they offered no assistance in attack and so if he thinks Taumalolo is his worst player. that deserved to be ridiculed more than those other players, he needs to watch the match again.

-------------
Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise



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