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URL: https://forum.thoroughbredvillage.com.au/forum_posts.asp?TID=64764 Printed Date: 24 Apr 2024 at 10:52pm Software Version: Web Wiz Forums 12.05 - http://www.webwizforums.com
Topic: 2020 Melbourne CupPosted By: Baghdad Bob
Subject: 2020 Melbourne Cup
Date Posted: 06 Nov 2019 at 6:37am
Well It diid not take that long before the odds on the 2020 Melbourne Cup were up and running. Sportsbet have odds up today, less than 24 hours after the running of the 2019 Cup. I read in the press of all the winning bets that were won on yesterday’s winner at odds of 200/1 months out from raceday , but nothing of all the losing bets placed . Sounds if it is a great marketing ploy . It is hard enough to pick the winner on race day, let alone picking a starter 12 months ahead of the race, despite the attraction of the odds offered to back that winner.
Replies: Posted By: Shawy38
Date Posted: 06 Nov 2019 at 7:05am
Surprise Baby just needs to stay sound and he will win. See you in 2020
Posted By: djebel
Date Posted: 06 Nov 2019 at 8:20am
Kew Gardens...........................58
Cross Counter..........................56
Vow And Declare.....................55
Ill Paradiso...............................55
Prince Of Aran.........................55
Master Of Reality.....................55
Search For A Song..................54.5
Surprise Baby..........................54
Warning...................................54
Finche......................................53.5
Carif.........................................49
Shared Ambition......................48
Our Candidate.........................46
Alessandro...............................34
------------- reductio ad absurdum
Posted By: mikey
Date Posted: 06 Nov 2019 at 9:07pm
Surprise Baby - oh what might have been!
But that's racing. Who is to say wont run into shocking luck in the race next year, even if he is kept sound.
Horse is an amazing talent, should win his owners millions in the countries best races, but crazy to target just one race.
Posted By: djebel
Date Posted: 07 Nov 2019 at 8:00pm
Kew Gardens...........................58
Dee Ex Bee..............................57.5
Cross Counter..........................56
Vow And Declare.....................55
Ill Paradiso...............................55
Prince Of Aran.........................55
Master Of Reality.....................55
Ispolini.....................................55.5
Search For A Song..................54.5
Surprise Baby..........................54
Warning...................................54
Finche......................................53.5
Skyward...................................52.5
Miami Bound............................52
Carif.........................................49
Shared Ambition......................48
Our Candidate.........................46
Alessandro...............................34
------------- reductio ad absurdum
Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 20 May 2020 at 3:31pm
2020 Melbourne Cup still the plan for Cross Counter
Cross Counter has been set for the 2020 Melbourne Cup.
Photo: Darryl Sherer
International travel restrictions haven’t stopped Godolphin trainer Charlie Appleby again putting the https://www.racenet.com.au/melbourne-cup" rel="nofollow - Melbourne Cup firmly on the agenda for https://www.racenet.com.au/horse/cross-counter" rel="nofollow - Cross Counter .
Cross Counter won the Melbourne Cup as a northern hemisphere
three-year-old in 2018 before running eight to Vow And Declare last
year.
International travel is up in the air during the coronavirus crisis
but Appleby told the Racing Post he has set Cross Counter for another
crack at the Melbourne Cup.
Cross Counter hasn’t race since finishing fifth in a race in Saudi
Arabia on February 29 but Appleby said the son of Teofilo wasn’t far off
resuming.
“He was fresh and well when he went to Riyadh for the Saudi Turf
Handicap in February, and he did a bit more than we wanted, he was a bit
gassy,” Appleby said.
“He was fifth, beaten seven lengths. The Gold Cup in Dubai was cancelled and he's arrived back in Britain in good order.
“An accomplished international campaigner, Cross Counter won the
Melbourne Cup in 2018 and was beaten a length and a half in eighth last
year.
“If it is logistically possible, the Cup will be his end-of-year target once again.”
Appleby has sent a team of horses to Melbourne for the spring in
recent years, winning Group I races with the likes of Jungle Cat and https://www.racenet.com.au/horse/benbatl" rel="nofollow - Benbatl and support races with runners such as https://www.racenet.com.au/horse/qewy" rel="nofollow - Qewy and Oceanographer.
Appleby said Barney Roy, who returned to racing last year after
failing at stud, could also be a member of a travelling party later in
the year.
Barney Roy won the Group I St James’s Palace Stakes (1m) during the 2017 Royal https://www.racenet.com.au/tracks/wa/ascot" rel="nofollow - Ascot carnival and claimed the Group I Jebel Hatta (1800m) at Meydan during the aborted Dubai World Cup carnival.
“Barney Roy showed his class, winning twice at Meydan at the Dubai
World Cup Carnival – his turn of foot can be devastating,” Appleby said.
“He showed that he's back to his best, and next month's Prince of Wales's Stakes at Ascot is his next assignment.
“He will also be on our international team later in the year.”
has Cross Counter as a $51 chance in its early Melbourne Cup market.
------------- Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
Posted By: Tlazolteotl
Date Posted: 20 May 2020 at 6:00pm
$51 Cross Counter. I thought he'd nearly be favourite.
------------- An honest politician is one who when he is bought will stay bought.
Simon Cameron
Posted By: Red Rancher
Date Posted: 20 May 2020 at 9:37pm
I just took the $56 with the TAB. if he starts he will be $10.
Posted By: Tlazolteotl
Date Posted: 31 May 2020 at 10:31am
Ok so if the Caulfield Cup is after the Melbourne Cup what is the lead up race for locally trained MC horses
------------- An honest politician is one who when he is bought will stay bought.
Simon Cameron
Posted By: djebel
Date Posted: 31 May 2020 at 11:20am
Whilst I do not agree with this nonsense by itself there are heaps of lead ups.
The Bart Cummings into The Moonee Valley Cup which apparently they are going to try and run on the traditional Caulfield Cup day. If that does not happen the Zipping Classic will be moved to Caulfield Cup day.
There are numerous races to run in prior to the Cup.
------------- reductio ad absurdum
Posted By: Sister Dot
Date Posted: 31 May 2020 at 11:53am
Barney Roy is Excelebrations best colt
------------- “Where in this wide world can man find nobility without pride, friendship without envy, or beauty without vanity? Here where grace is laced with muscle and strength by gentleness confined”
Posted By: Tlazolteotl
Date Posted: 31 May 2020 at 11:56am
Why are they moving the CC?
------------- An honest politician is one who when he is bought will stay bought.
Simon Cameron
Posted By: Tlazolteotl
Date Posted: 31 May 2020 at 11:58am
You won't get good NH horses running in the Bart Cummings or MV Cup.
------------- An honest politician is one who when he is bought will stay bought.
Simon Cameron
Posted By: Mr Grieves
Date Posted: 31 May 2020 at 1:18pm
Tlazolteotl wrote:
Why are they moving the CC?
Out of the hope that one month later there will be more chance of crowds being able to attend
Posted By: Foxseal
Date Posted: 31 May 2020 at 4:17pm
Tlazolteotl wrote:
Ok so if the Caulfield Cup is after the Melbourne Cup what is the lead up race for locally trained MC horses
In VIC: Bart Cummings Stks 2500m Herbert Power Hcp 2400m Geelong Cup 2400m Moonee Valley Cup 2500m Bendigo Cup 2400m Hotham Hcp 2500m
In NSW: Newcastle Gold Cup 2300m Colin Stephen Qlty 2400m ATC Metropolitan 2400m ATC St Leger 2600m City Tattersalls Club Cup 2400m
Options galore for all stayers aiming at the Melb Cup
Posted By: Tlazolteotl
Date Posted: 31 May 2020 at 4:36pm
Tlazolteotl wrote:
You won't get good NH horses running in the Bart Cummings or MV Cup.
Or any of those races.
------------- An honest politician is one who when he is bought will stay bought.
Simon Cameron
Posted By: Second Chance
Date Posted: 31 May 2020 at 4:59pm
Last year only two overseas trained gallopers ran in the Caulfield Cup. Add Rostropovich which Hayes got in July and that makes three.
So if 2019 is any guide the loss of the CC as a lead up will have little affect in terms of NH horses.
Posted By: Foxseal
Date Posted: 31 May 2020 at 5:49pm
Tlazolteotl wrote:
Tlazolteotl wrote:
You won't get good NH horses running in the Bart Cummings or MV Cup.
Or any of those races.
Huh? Didn’t some of these NH horses run in those races?
Americain, Hunting Horn, Dunaden, Protectionist, Qewy, True Self, Red Galileo, Withhold, Oceanographer, Prince of Arran, etc?
Posted By: Majestic
Date Posted: 12 Jun 2020 at 4:42pm
According to tradition, MC contenders have just returned to stables In first fortnight of June from their spells in prep for 1st Tues in November. Today most are pretrained in country. Yesteryear a follower could note the progress with regular track work reports recorded in the morning and afternoon press but extensively in Sportsman form guide. BTW nominations were taken in June, weights used to come out in July and Millers Guide in late August. We were chuffed when we could say we had so and so in the MC. Only ever had one go to acceptances though.
Posted By: Second Chance
Date Posted: 12 Jun 2020 at 5:12pm
Yes it can be really complicated these days Majestic.
For instance, one of our home-breds returned from the paddock not so long ago. He spent some time at a commercially run private property doing arena work, after which he was then transferred to Ballarat progressing to long striding stage on the hilly sand circuit. He'll now some time at Cranbourne for whatever reason (maybe jump outs or just close to home if home is full), before finally arriving at his "home base" Caulfield for the last part of his pre-race preparation.
So he'll be largely invisible until about a month before his resumption.
Posted By: djebel
Date Posted: 12 Jun 2020 at 5:27pm
Mean while none of the Europeans will have spent any time getting fat.
They will have stayed at or near racing trim from the time they started training as yearlings.
------------- reductio ad absurdum
Posted By: Second Chance
Date Posted: 12 Jun 2020 at 5:45pm
Relevance to Majestic's post or just an off the cuff comment?
Posted By: djebel
Date Posted: 12 Jun 2020 at 5:49pm
It is relevant to both the above comments.
Until our trainers and our whole campaigning philosophy changes our horses will always be catching their dust.
------------- reductio ad absurdum
Posted By: Second Chance
Date Posted: 12 Jun 2020 at 6:08pm
djebel you clearly didn't either read or understand Majestic's post.
It has naff all to do with when's, how's and why's of a horses pre-race program but was rather all about attempting to identify future success based on observation: ie "yesteryear a follower could note the progress with regular track work reports recorded in the morning and afternoon press but extensively in Sportsman form guide. Today most are pre-trained in the country"....
Posted By: djebel
Date Posted: 12 Jun 2020 at 7:52pm
I understood it fully.
------------- reductio ad absurdum
Posted By: Majestic
Date Posted: 12 Jun 2020 at 9:40pm
My comment was an observation from the 50s 60s 70s and 80s. Even Bart varied the routine with Saintly, then we get to international runners and victors in the 90s and early 2000s. This was when the locals realised that you dont let a stayer go right back to nature during a spell and start from scratch toward the spring targets. We watched, we learnt and started to apply overseas practices. We dont start in August with 1200m races and run 15,000m before MC to get fit to run 3200m. The Irish and Poms use the Curragh and Epsom Downs and private hilly country to achieve/ maintain fitness, as djebel has said, from yearlings. Who used Aussie practices but adopted Pommy methods to win MC in the 90s and 2000s? FBI, Hayes, Bart, Moroney,etc.
Mark my words, Aussie stayers are on the way back. If race clubs come on board and program a steady progression for stamina building, our local stayers, with certain trainers, will progress to cup contenders.
But, we need to promote our local stayer stallions. Look at Japanese Breeding and analyse their pedigrees and their training methods. We can not allow ourselves to not be learning from the forward thinkers on international breeding/training.
Unfortunately, the Kiwis have lost the ball with stayers. Their breeding and racing infrastructure is f##ked and will take years To recover and be aN influence.
Go Aussies, believe and you will succeed.
Posted By: VOYAGER
Date Posted: 19 Jun 2020 at 1:14am
I know this will not happen but here it goes.
If Amanda whatshername at the VRC wants to pull off a coup, here it is.
To get the best 2800m+ horse (Stradivarius) in the world to the first Tuesday in November, pay the connections an appearance fee equal to the first prizemoney of the Arc, and lay out the red carpet (so in other words give him 60 kilos, he should be carrying 62 at least).
I know he wont come, but this horse would be the biggest attraction the Cup has had since Phar Lap was to carry the 66.5 kilos in 1932, okay maybe Kingston Town and Makybe Diva for her 3rd, would be in that final!
------------- Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
Posted By: djebel
Date Posted: 19 Jun 2020 at 1:53am
------------- reductio ad absurdum
Posted By: Brudder_A
Date Posted: 19 Jun 2020 at 3:39am
Stradivarius like the 18th century violin is delicate and will be so protected that any strings that you try to pull will not tune to the chords down under.....
Posted By: Jamal
Date Posted: 19 Jun 2020 at 12:31pm
Stradavarius - a very very dominant win in the G1 Ascot Gold Cup. Was in another league.
------------- Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
Posted By: Jamal
Date Posted: 19 Jun 2020 at 1:30pm
See article...Stradavarius has been given a provisional Timeform rating of 130: https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/timeform-strad-hits-130-high/181037 " rel="nofollow - https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/timeform-strad-hits-130-high/181037 ;
------------- Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 19 Jun 2020 at 2:42pm
Cross Counter on track for Cup
Cross Counter remains on track for his third appearance in the
Melbourne Cup after finishing a distant third in the 250,000
(A$450,000) Group 1 Ascot Gold Cup (4014m) on Thursday.
The John Gosden-trained Stradivarius conquered the Gold Cup for
the third consecutive year, winning by ten lengths with total ease
under Frankie Dettori.
2018 Melbourne Cup winner Cross Counter ($8) was among seven
rivals left in the wake of a champion, finishing 18 lengths behind
Stradivarius ($1.80 favourite) and another eight behind runner-up Nayef
Road ($12) who attempted to lead throughout.
But Appleby saw enough from the five-year-old gelded son of Teofilo under James Doyle to be pleased with the performance.
"The plan was to ride him cold and let him float round the back there and passing horses," Appleby said.
I think since Melbourne, we havent ridden him differently,
but he has been ridden slightly more positively. I just thought today
let him go past horses and see if the enthusiasm is still there.
For me I was delighted to see him do what he did. He galloped out on (soft) ground he doesnt really enjoy.
"James (Doyle) thought he would nick a bit of ground coming on
the inside, but it was an encouraging run. The horse will have enjoyed
that and come forward for it."
Appleby indicated that Cross Counter would have his next start
in the Group 3 Henry II Stakes (3712m) at Sandown on Sunday, July 5. The
race is usually held in May but has been rescheduled due to the
COVID-19 outbreak which suspended British racing for over two months.
He wont have to carry a (weight) penalty and thankfully there
will be no Stradivarius," Appleby said, with Stradivarius set to
proceed to the Group 1 Goodwood Cup (3219m), a race he has won the past
three years.
The long-term target has always been the Melbourne Cup. He ran
a very creditable race in it again last year (finishing eighth to Vow
And Declare).
"I think more importantly, what we have seen today he is back
to where he was in Melbourne. Just ride him chilly, as he sees it out
well and has a good turn of foot.
I was very encouraged to see what I saw today and hopefully there is a race or two left in him.
------------- Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
Posted By: Tlazolteotl
Date Posted: 19 Jun 2020 at 5:32pm
VOYAGER wrote:
I know this will not happen but here it goes.
If Amanda whatshername at the VRC wants to pull off a coup, here it is.
To get the best 2800m+ horse (Stradivarius) in the world to the first Tuesday in November, pay the connections an appearance fee equal to the first prizemoney of the Arc, and lay out the red carpet (so in other words give him 60 kilos, he should be carrying 62 at least).
I know he wont come, but this horse would be the biggest attraction the Cup has had since Phar Lap was to carry the 66.5 kilos in 1932, okay maybe Kingston Town and Makybe Diva for her 3rd, would be in that final!
Bigger even than Double Trigger!
------------- An honest politician is one who when he is bought will stay bought.
Simon Cameron
Posted By: Mug-Punter
Date Posted: 06 Jul 2020 at 8:37pm
So it's only taken 8 months to finally watch a replay of last years race.... What weight would Surprise Baby get this year compared to last year???
------------- The Mugg
Posted By: Jamal
Date Posted: 07 Jul 2020 at 9:58am
Mug-Punter wrote:
So it's only taken 8 months to finally watch a replay of last years race.... What weight would Surprise Baby get this year compared to last year???
Surprise Baby carried 53.5kg in the 2019 Melbourne Cup. In regards to 2020, he'll probably get 54kg. I'm not sure he'd get anything lighter then that.
------------- Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
Posted By: stayer
Date Posted: 08 Jul 2020 at 3:55pm
I've been chipping away at Buckhurst for a while but I think Covid will make it a local win this year. Which might be a good story/ debate topic in the years to come.
Posted By: cotto1
Date Posted: 13 Jul 2020 at 9:48am
Hi there guys:
any chance Sydney will pinch the Melbourne cup this year and it will be run and won in nsw.your guys thoughts?.
Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 13 Jul 2020 at 10:03am
With the rivalry between the States? Not even a 1% chance!
------------- Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
Posted By: cotto1
Date Posted: 13 Jul 2020 at 10:05am
Hi there guys:
Do you reckon marmelo will be back again after last year?.
Posted By: Rhino
Date Posted: 13 Jul 2020 at 10:55am
Nominations are not due until 27 August. Can anyone shed any light on where travel restrictions are at for international horses?
Could this be the first Cup ever for locals only?
Posted By: Tlazolteotl
Date Posted: 13 Jul 2020 at 11:22am
November is a long way off. Steely Dan will have things back to normal by then, equally normal to Sydney anyway.
------------- An honest politician is one who when he is bought will stay bought.
Simon Cameron
Posted By: Rhino
Date Posted: 13 Jul 2020 at 12:18pm
So we are all screwed then.
Posted By: Foxseal
Date Posted: 13 Jul 2020 at 3:17pm
cotto1 wrote:
Hi there guys:
Do you reckon marmelo will be back again after last year?.
Marmelo was retired to stud in France late last year. So we wont be seeing him back again.
Posted By: VOYAGER
Date Posted: 13 Jul 2020 at 8:08pm
Okay we have seen a few of the overseas horses who may come out (especially if it is held at Randwick , isn't that deputy premier of NSW a intelligent man ) so what do we feel the field will be if the internationals can not get to Melbourne?
At this moment it is looking lacklustre but here is where I think we sit.
1. Vow And Declare
2. Oceanex
3. Warning
4. Surprise Baby
5. King Of Leongrance
6. Etah James
7. Roger That
8. Verry Elleegant
9. Quick Thinker
10. Sherwood Forest
11. Russian Camelot
12. Metrop winner
13. Bart Cummings winner
14. Steel Prince (not sure what is happening there)
15. The Chosen One
16. Lexus winner
17. Collette (not sure about Godolphin running a four year old mare)
18. Raheen House
19. Dalasan (if they decide he is a stayer)
20. Sound
21. Caulfield Cup winner
22. Shared Ambition
23. Finche
24. Carif
Then we have horses who are here but they are either down in the ratings, out of form or injured like Constantinople. Il Paradiso, the Mike Moroney horses such as Chapada, Top Of The Range and , Perth Cup winner Mississippi Delta, Mugatoo, Supernova, Sweet Thomas, Mirage Dancer, Youngstar, Zebrowski, Eric The Eel (whoops I think he is in Hong Kong), Shraaoh.
Then we have the big player and he is a chance in a non-international year of doing the double with Master Of Wine being aimed at the Cox Plate/Melbourne Cup double. In a normal year I would never consider him as winning both, but when you look at his opposition, he will give both of them a serious shake.
Is there any other staying type that you guys can think will make an all Australian field?
------------- Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
Posted By: VOYAGER
Date Posted: 13 Jul 2020 at 8:09pm
The other Moroney horse I was trying to think of was Aktau.
------------- Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
Posted By: Carioca
Date Posted: 13 Jul 2020 at 8:20pm
IL Paradiso injured Voyager?
Posted By: Carioca
Date Posted: 13 Jul 2020 at 8:42pm
Yep, just read.
Posted By: SkyDancer
Date Posted: 13 Jul 2020 at 9:16pm
Bryce may as well chuck a nom in for Hanaki Warrior
Posted By: marble
Date Posted: 13 Jul 2020 at 9:30pm
VOYAGER wrote:
Okay we have seen a few of the overseas horses who may come out (especially if it is held at Randwick , isn't that deputy premier of NSW a intelligent man ) so what do we feel the field will be if the internationals can not get to Melbourne?
Is there any other staying type that you guys can think will make an all Australian field?
Is Sixties Groove a chance? massive win at grafton under the big weight and I remember back before the european invasion a quennsland horse called oompala won the grafton cup and then ran a huge race in the cup same year
Posted By: Foxseal
Date Posted: 14 Jul 2020 at 1:24pm
OTI has a 4yo stallion called San Huberto running in a 2800m
G2 race tonight at Longchamp.
Hes already a G2 winner at Chantilly, so Id expect that if he runs well again tonight that hed be on the plane to Aust for the Cups.
Posted By: djebel
Date Posted: 14 Jul 2020 at 2:11pm
marble wrote:
VOYAGER wrote:
Okay we have seen a few of the overseas horses who may come out (especially if it is held at Randwick , isn't that deputy premier of NSW a intelligent man ) so what do we feel the field will be if the internationals can not get to Melbourne?
Is there any other staying type that you guys can think will make an all Australian field?
Is Sixties Groove a chance? massive win at grafton under the big weight and I remember back before the european invasion a quennsland horse called oompala won the grafton cup and then ran a huge race in the cup same year
In a era not too distant from Oompala, Kensei won the two Cups.
------------- reductio ad absurdum
Posted By: Tlazolteotl
Date Posted: 14 Jul 2020 at 2:18pm
What a nuisance it will be if there are no foreigners this year.
------------- An honest politician is one who when he is bought will stay bought.
Simon Cameron
Posted By: VOYAGER
Date Posted: 14 Jul 2020 at 4:13pm
marble wrote:
VOYAGER wrote:
Okay we have seen a few of the overseas horses who may come out (especially if it is held at Randwick , isn't that deputy premier of NSW a intelligent man ) so what do we feel the field will be if the internationals can not get to Melbourne?
Is there any other staying type that you guys can think will make an all Australian field?
Is Sixties Groove a chance? massive win at grafton under the big weight and I remember back before the european invasion a quennsland horse called oompala won the grafton cup and then ran a huge race in the cup same year
I was going to put him in marble, but I am wondering about his rating whether he is above horses like Carif and Raheen House.
I am dead certain, that if we do not get a large number of internationals and the Hawkes stable aim Master of Wine at the Cup, that with 54 or 54.5 he can win the race.
------------- Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
Posted By: djebel
Date Posted: 14 Jul 2020 at 4:20pm
Even in a full strength year Sixties Groove should get into the Melbourne Cup with a rating of 106+
------------- reductio ad absurdum
Posted By: djebel
Date Posted: 15 Jul 2020 at 1:42pm
Steel Prince and Warning
"He's come really well, he had a stress fracture in the autumn, so he needed a really long spell, which has done him the world of good because he's moving the best he's ever moved," Freedman said of Steel Prince.
"He'll probably have a quiet jumpout next week - he'll probably have three jumpouts in total - and then he'll resume in the Heatherlie Handicap and then he'll head towards the Melbourne Cup where he ran a really good race last year.
"He and Warning are probably our two main horses for the Melbourne Cup."
"Warning stays all day, so he'll run the two miles no problems and he handles any track condition," Freedman said,
"It's never easy as a rising four-year-old to go on a Melbourne Cup campaign but he's very hardened after a couple of big preparations and he handles his racing very well.
"He'll go down a similar path to Steel Prince, although he might not have as many runs as Steel Prince."
Posted By: cotto1
Date Posted: 16 Jul 2020 at 7:45am
Hi there guys:
That prince of aaran.what is he currently up to?. If I remember correctly he come 3rd.in last years cup.i didnt mind him.seemed to have enough ability.
Posted By: Second Chance
Date Posted: 16 Jul 2020 at 8:34am
Hi Cotto
He hasn't started since his last run in HK about 7 months ago. Here's the latest I could find on him:
Charlie
Fellowes is keeping Prince Of Arran on track for a third Melbourne Cup run in
spring despite admitting the worldwide COVID-19 pandemic continues to put his
place in major doubt.
"If we can't come it would
be devastating," Fellowes told RSN927 on Wednesday.
"I have loved my trips down to Australia over the last few years and I
would miss it very much.
"As far as we are concerned,
until I am told that we can't come to Australia for the Spring Carnival, the
plan is very much to prep him this year to come down to Australia for the
Spring Carnival and have a couple of runs down there.
"As to what we do before
that I don't know but we are planning to come down.
"I am very much hoping that
we can come down again because it's been a great place for us. We've loved it
and Prince Of Arran loves coming down there and I've got a couple of youngsters
I'd like to take down there.
"The Melbourne Cup is a race
I have become very fond of and the Australian Spring Carnival in general has
been very good to me and it's a place I hope to come and bring horses for many
years to come."
Posted By: Second Chance
Date Posted: 16 Jul 2020 at 8:40am
Whoops, incorrect. He's had two starts this prep for a 3rd in a Gp 3 over about 2 miles followed by 6th in the Group1 Ascot Gold Cup over about 2 1/2 miles a month ago.
Posted By: cotto1
Date Posted: 17 Jul 2020 at 6:57am
Hi there guys:
I was gathering everyone has a very high opinion of surprise baby.
I see he is one of the favourites for this years cup.what is he currently up to.and ty so much second chance.for the update on prince of aaran much appreciated ???? Ty
Posted By: cotto1
Date Posted: 17 Jul 2020 at 6:59am
Sorry that was meant to be a ????
Posted By: mikey
Date Posted: 20 Jul 2020 at 12:23pm
Surprise Baby is potentially a freak galloper. His run in last years MC was phenomenal coming off a slow speed. By all reports he is being prepared for a crack at the Cox Plate/Melbourne Cup double this spring and I for one consider him a serious chance in both races. He has won at Moonee Valley.
Posted By: cotto1
Date Posted: 20 Jul 2020 at 12:46pm
Hi there guys:
Very interesting about surprise baby.with the current climate.is it very likely that surprise baby.will tackle both the Cox plate and the Melbourne cup?. Ty guys
Posted By: djebel
Date Posted: 20 Jul 2020 at 1:04pm
There is no reason why he shouldn't.
The Cox Plates rightful status is as a Melbourne Cup lead up race.
------------- reductio ad absurdum
Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 25 Jul 2020 at 11:08am
One for Redemption
THERE MIGHT BE AN INTERNATIONAL IN THE CUP AFTER ALL. THE HUNGARIAN CHAMPION, NO LESS
July 22, 2020 4:23 pm
By Matt Stewart, Racing Editor
Have you heard about the Hungarian horse?
You might come November, according to trainer Anthony Cummings, who
trains the most exotic entry for this years Melbourne Cup, the former
Hungarian horse of the year Nancho.
After a challenging zig-zagging trip from Europe, Nancho arrived at
Cummings Randwick stables some time ago and is due to trial on August
8.
The son of ill-fated champion Monsun will have a Sydney campaign via
races such as the Chelmsford, George Main, Hill Stakes and Epsom
Handicap before heading south for the big Cups.
Cummings has been impressed with the former Hungarian hero.
I feel Ive got a decent chance of winning a big race in the spring
with Nancho, hopefully it will be the Melbourne Cup, Cummings told tdnausnz.com.au.
He looks the right type of horse, with a superb race record which
sees him fully-qualified for the Cup and likely to get a weight that
will guarantee a start.
Combine that with what looks like a Cup-winning pedigree to my eye,
and a solid group of owners, its very exciting. Bring on the spring
carnival.
Nancho was purchased earlier this year by Grant Bloodstock.
Steve Grant told https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2ftdnausnz.com.au&c=E,1,4-CnOIY09eGRngGFhabuDYQLSSEQdo1zCOvKRYCUDvBTg6OUo25i2QL68QvH3eVwGVSkgVhgdXb5Bajm8TjE9z_iULJFAO7Th37Aub4TPH13Fkg,&typo=1" rel="nofollow - tdnausnz.com.au that
Cummings European contacts had recommended they purchase Nancho, a
Hungarian champion over multiple distances who won the Group One Grosser
Preis von Bayern in Germany at his last start.
He has won 11 of his 18 starts.
He (the agent) approached us with a few horses and when I started
looking at this one, he was of particular interest, Grant said. Hes a
long, sleek type and a bit lighter in condition than our horses, were
quite excited about the possibilities.
The challenging trip out here as described by Grant featured a
transfer from Hungary to Germany and a partial road trip to Qatar, then a
flight to Melbourne.
People have said they hope he wins one of these big races because it will make a great movie, Grand said.
------------- Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
Posted By: Sister Dot
Date Posted: 25 Jul 2020 at 11:28am
Why would they sell a horse like that? Age? Or cause hes a gelding? Soundness?
------------- “Where in this wide world can man find nobility without pride, friendship without envy, or beauty without vanity? Here where grace is laced with muscle and strength by gentleness confined”
Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 25 Jul 2020 at 12:14pm
An offer they couldn't refuse?
------------- Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
Posted By: VOYAGER
Date Posted: 25 Jul 2020 at 7:37pm
Well if a horse owned by a Chechnyan terrorist leader can run third in cup can not see why a Hungarian horse could not run well.
Doesn't all great things come from Hungary
------------- Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
Posted By: kavg
Date Posted: 25 Jul 2020 at 11:04pm
Unless I have the wrong horse, Matt Stewart needs to do more homework. He is not a son of Monsun. His granddam is. Big difference.
------------- Prejudice is an emotional attachment to ignorance. DiEM25 for the world.
Posted By: djebel
Date Posted: 25 Jul 2020 at 11:20pm
At this stage, Nancho will be the top weight.
Now whether that means he gets 58 or 57 and the rest drop will be up the imaginative mind of Greg Carpenter.
------------- reductio ad absurdum
Posted By: djebel
Date Posted: 25 Jul 2020 at 11:22pm
Prince Of Arran and Mustajeer with 112 ratings and no group 1 wins to their names, whilst the filly Nancho beat in Germany is around the 110 mark, Nancho will be entitled to around the 113/114 mark.
------------- reductio ad absurdum
Posted By: djebel
Date Posted: 26 Jul 2020 at 6:43pm
Cross Counter......................118
Master Of Reality.................117
Barney Roy..........................116
Magic Wand.........................115
Prince Of Arran....................113
Twilight Payment.................112
Buckhurst.............................111
True Self..............................110
Dashing Willoughby.............109
------------- reductio ad absurdum
Posted By: VOYAGER
Date Posted: 29 Jul 2020 at 2:28pm
One of the more intriguing potential overseas runners is Dashing Willoughby and he has a new majority owner in Sir Owen Glen.
What do our international form analysts think of his hopes, to me he seems a definite top five contender!
------------- Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 29 Jul 2020 at 2:51pm
A leading https://www.racenet.com.au/melbourne-cup" rel="nofollow - Melbourne Cup hopeful has been purchased by Kiwi millionaire and Go Bloodstock owner Owen Glenn.
Emerging stayer Dashing Willoughby is set to head to Australia to tackle this year's Melbourne Cup after Glenn acquired a majority share in the UK-based four-year-old this week.
Dashing Willoughby is currently an $18 chance for this year's Melbourne Cup after impressing back in his home country before Glenn bought in.
The son of Nathaniel, a winner of four of 12 starts, has excelled in his four-year-old season and flashed his Cup credentials when winning the Listed Buckhounds Stakes (2414m) at Newmarket last month.
He followed it up by beaten a quality field that included 2018 Melbourne Cup winner https://www.racenet.com.au/horse/cross-counter" rel="nofollow - Cross Counter to capture the Group III Henry II Stakes (3264m).
Trainer Andrew Balding is expected to remain as trainer of Dashing Willoughby, which is set to run in the Group II Lonsdale Cup (3270m) at https://www.racenet.com.au/tracks/wa/york" rel="nofollow - York on August 21 before heading to Australia.
However, with international travel restrictions still in place it's unlikely that Balding would be able to join Dashing Willoughby for the Melbourne Cup at https://www.racenet.com.au/tracks/vic/flemington" rel="nofollow - Flemington on November 3.
Glenn was notably the owner of four-time Group I winner Criterion, which finished runner up in a https://www.racenet.com.au/cox-plate" rel="nofollow - Cox Plate and third in the Melbourne Cup in 2015.
The likes of Monaco Consul, Comin' Through and https://www.racenet.com.au/horse/pure-elation" rel="nofollow - Pure Elation have also worn Glenn's prominent yellow and white silks.
------------- Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
Posted By: djebel
Date Posted: 29 Jul 2020 at 11:42pm
Posted By: djebel
Date Posted: 30 Jul 2020 at 3:27pm
William Pike has been booked to ride Schabau in the two Cups.
He needs to get into the race with a rating of 91 he will be way down the list a will need to win his way in.
------------- reductio ad absurdum
Posted By: djebel
Date Posted: 03 Aug 2020 at 2:10pm
------------- reductio ad absurdum
Posted By: cotto1
Date Posted: 03 Aug 2020 at 3:19pm
Hi there mate:
Ty for posting that video.very interesting he seemed to like very elegant and what do you guys make of surprise baby maybe having 53.5 to 54.5 weights to carry.will should it be an issue.and will very elegant carry a bit of weight well. Ty guys.
Posted By: VOYAGER
Date Posted: 03 Aug 2020 at 6:29pm
That is a very good explanation of how Carpenter structures his weight allotment, but it highlights the group of horses who are disadvantaged.
The new season Australian/NZ four year olds are still being weighted like the old days, and unfortunately while ever the outdated WFA scale is being used, as a foundation, it will stay that way.
As I have stated before, any trainer who has a 3yo classic winner in Australia or New Zealand, needs to forget aiming at the cup, and aim at the Caulfield Cup due to the weight they get.
If there is anyone here who thinks Warning, Quick Thinker and Russian Camelot should get the same or just under the weight of Surprise Baby and Master Of Wine, and still have a chance of winning, then they will need to tell me why.
A handicap is supposed to offer horses a weight that allows them to win, but the classic winners from Australia and New Zealand are so disadvantaged that we will never see another classic winner win the cup as a four year old, and that is unfair.
With the last decade of results, when you get the weights out in September just put the pen through any galloper who has above 55 kilos winning, because they are badly weighted against the non classic winning four year olds, and the northern hemisphere 3yo's. Is it was we should have had three northern hemisphere winners in the last four years with Il Paradiso last year extremely unlucky in the last 100m.
The proof of what I am saying is that the horses with more than 55 kilos can run well, and get close to winning but that weight pull that the northern hemisphere 3yo's and the non classic winning four year olds get is too much.
I do not see why you can manipulate the northern hemisphere three year olds foundation weight ( as explained in the video they went from a base of 51.5 to 52.5 kilos) and not do the same for other groups in an appropriate manner.
------------- Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
Posted By: djebel
Date Posted: 03 Aug 2020 at 7:27pm
VOYAGER wrote:
If there is anyone here who thinks Warning, Quick Thinker and Russian Camelot should get the same or just under the weight of Surprise Baby and Master Of Wine, and still have a chance of winning, then they will need to tell me why.
They will not get the same weights.
Personally I think Russian Camelot could give all these horses 5 kgs and drag them around and beat them.
What weight should Vow And Declare have to give Surprise Baby ?
------------- reductio ad absurdum
Posted By: VOYAGER
Date Posted: 04 Aug 2020 at 4:32pm
I think all villagers know my thoughts on the allowances for fillies and mares, in WFA, there for making the scale outdated, but to use WFA as a foundation for the weights is outdated.
Surprise Baby is a lightly raced 6yo. We all know his form. and I agree with the video, he will have to carry at least 54.5 kilos, that is whether the weights are raised or not.
However every form analyst and I mean every form analyst, will tell you that the Australian classic form lines, are not strong staying form lines. What I am trying to communicate is that the weak pool of staying 3yo's is not being taken into account when the classic winners are given weight.
Lets look at Verry Elleegant. Last year she was given 53.5 kilos. So because Carpenter is using that as a base, if we add the 1.5 kilos for the WFA (which again in my opinion is wrong), then she is automatically on 55 for this year. Then her form is now taken into consideration and she will get 57 kilos, and there is no chance in eternity she wins this race with 57 kilos. If she was given her correct weight last year, which should have been 51.5 or 52 at most, then she would be getting 55 or 55.5 kilos this year and that is a winnable weight.
Back in the old days where the classic races including the ST Legers, were used as the guide for the new season four year olds, the weights were correct because the older stayers usually came through the same classic races previously, so if you had not improved in your four or five year old season, you were still being weighted on what you had done two seasons previous and you usually had to win a ballot free race, usually the Caulfield Cup or Lexus or get a penalty for winning the Moonee Valley Cup or the Geelong Cup to get the weight needed to make the big race.
But these days the weights are so badly manipulated, that a horse who had run third in a cup, and who had won the Lexus and then had won the Geelong Cup ( Prince Of Arran) needs a gift from Carpenter through a higher penalty than he deserved for the win, to get in the field, when he should have received enough weight to be in the field four months earlier.
Horses like Sherwood Forest, Collette, Quick Thinker, Warning and Miami Bound have got no chance in the Melbourne Cup as four year olds, that is why if you are a smart operator like Murray Baker ( Quick Thinker), you will aim your four year old at the Caulfield Cup, and if they win that then maybe go on and have a crack at the cup.
Russian Camelot is the anomaly because he is a northern hemisphere 3yo (physically), but we have no form reference for NH 3yo's who have had a full classic prep in Australia so we need to see how this turns out. Personally I feel he needs to improve significantly on his form but his natural improvement will give him some of that improvement.
I was always told that handicapping was supposed to give very horse their chance to win the race. As it stands as the weight allocation structure stands, the classic winning new season four year olds have no chance of competing on a even field when it comes to the weights allotted.
------------- Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
Posted By: VOYAGER
Date Posted: 04 Aug 2020 at 4:35pm
I see that Godolphin will not have any international runners this spring. Charlie Appleby and Saeed Bin Suroor are not coming.
No Japanese are coming either, and I would assume that with the Victorian situation not to many will make the trip.
------------- Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
Posted By: Jamal
Date Posted: 04 Aug 2020 at 6:57pm
That came out wrong, apologies for that. See link below:
------------- Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
Posted By: cotto1
Date Posted: 11 Aug 2020 at 8:06am
Hi there guys:
I see they reckon collide will be running in the Caulfield cup and Melbourne cup double.they say he has already qualified and is very fit.interesting
Posted By: cotto1
Date Posted: 11 Aug 2020 at 8:09am
Hi there guys:
And I think I heard Dashing Willoughby will be staying in Australia after the cup.
Posted By: oneonesit
Date Posted: 11 Aug 2020 at 8:14am
Have they moved it to Sydney yet ?
------------- Refer ALP Election Promises
Posted By: oneonesit
Date Posted: 11 Aug 2020 at 8:18am
Surely its about the race - its rich tradition & all. Doesn't matter if its in Sydney. Maybe we can swap it with the Gay Mardi Gras for a year down the track
------------- Refer ALP Election Promises
Posted By: Second Chance
Date Posted: 11 Aug 2020 at 5:00pm
kavg wrote:
Unless I have the wrong horse, Matt Stewart needs to do more homework. He (Nancho) is not a son of Monsun. His granddam is a daughter. Big difference.
Not to mention that the "ill-fated" Monsun lived until the age of 22.
Posted By: cotto1
Date Posted: 12 Aug 2020 at 10:40am
Hi there guys:
Did you see surprise baby is having a jockey change for the m cup.
What do you guys think.
Posted By: cotto1
Date Posted: 12 Aug 2020 at 10:41am
1 of the big favourites for this years cup interesting.
Posted By: Second Chance
Date Posted: 12 Aug 2020 at 10:53am
Not altogether surprising Cotto, though Williams clearly can't ride both Vow And Declare and Surprise Baby in the Cup.
So if they both make the field there has to be a riding change.
Posted By: djebel
Date Posted: 12 Aug 2020 at 11:56am
If they comeback as they left Vow And Declare can not beat Surprise Baby in this years Melbourne Cup.
Vow And Declare will lump far more weight than he deserves.
Really they should be carrying the same weight. There was 0.9 lengths between them last year plus Vow And Declare was 1.5 kgs better off.
Our stupid handicapping system there will be at least a 3 kg turn around.
I doubt either play a role in the finish.
Vow And Declare not good enough to overcome the weight rise.
Surprise Baby had a wasted autumn.
------------- reductio ad absurdum
Posted By: cotto1
Date Posted: 12 Aug 2020 at 12:32pm
Hi there guys:
I thought the same thing m8. Vow and declare only just won last time and you are now asking him to be top weight.and do you guys like Williams on surprise baby.
Posted By: djebel
Date Posted: 12 Aug 2020 at 12:44pm
Williams is unlikely the be the reason he does not win this spring.
------------- reductio ad absurdum
Posted By: Jamal
Date Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 5:19pm
https://www.racenet.com.au/news/journalist/clinton-payne" rel="nofollow - Clinton Payne
https://www.racenet.com.au/trainer/chris-waller" rel="nofollow - Chris Waller is using the Bart Cummings https://www.racenet.com.au/melbourne-cup" rel="nofollow - Melbourne Cup blueprint for Shared Ambition as Australias premier Group I trainer chases his first win in the race that stops a nation.
The late Cups King won the Melbourne Cup on 12 occasions and famously declared to win the two mile marathon a horse needs 10,000 metres or 10 kilometres of racing during the campaign prior to the first Tuesday in November.
The last Melbourne Cup winner to have run the 10,000m by Cup day was Shocking in 2009. He had 11,840m in his six runs prior.
Shared Ambition starts his campaign on Saturday which the trainer hopes will culminate in a Melbourne Cup start when the imported galloper leads the Waller charge in the Spring Preview Handicap (1400m) at https://www.racenet.com.au/tracks/nsw/randwick" rel="nofollow - Randwick .
Well be taking a Bart Cummings type Melbourne Cup approach with Shared Ambition 10,000 metres of racing in the build up, Waller said.
If you follow the basics of what people have done before, you cant do much harm.
He needs to run on Saturday because I need to get the mileage into him.
1400 first-up is my chance to make sure he switches off and settles because were trying to get to 2400 and two miles.
"Today my only concern is him settling to get those distances. Thats why these lead-up races are important.
Shared Ambition is a $26 chance in the https://www.racenet.com.au/caulfield-cup" rel="nofollow - Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup with Waller indicating both races are on the horses agenda should he qualify and make the fields.
On Saturday, he starts his campaign with 3kg young gun Tom Sherry in the saddle and bookmakers have him priced at $7.50 with the trainer issuing a warning to punters.
Shared Ambition is a perfect example that punters need to respect that a trainer could send a horse to the races at the moment to look after them but at the same time giving them every chance to win, Waller said.
It might be why a horse is being ridden conservatively rather than being up running third or fourth, risking it being three wide.
Providing the owners agree, well ride him conservatively, giving him his chance to travel up, track into the race and be strong late.
If they go quick enough, if theres horses carting him into the race, if theres four lengths from first to last turning for home hes a terrific winning chance.
If theres 10 lengths from first to last and hes in the back quarter, its unlikely he will win, rather run a good race coming home and take good benefit from the run.
In simple terms I think it is going to come down to how the race is run but gee hes come back stronger and I naturally think that will be better.
Heres what Waller had to say about his other runners in the race.
Danzdanzdance ($9.50) I think the booking of https://www.racenet.com.au/jockey/james-mcdonald" rel="nofollow - James McDonald declares my hand that I think shes a winning chance. I see her being a genuine Group I horse, racing back in what you would call a welter type race and shell be midfield, three wide with cover and if the race is run to suit, setting it up for a horse off the speed, shell be chiming in and be vary strong. Shes a fit horse and a good horse that copes with soft and heavy.
Captain Cook ($41) He was simply given a longer spell at the end of his last prep. I struggled with him all last prep yet he raced really well but I was never comfortable with his action so I gave him a long break. Hes come back really well but interestingly hes had no heavy track runs when he raced in the Northern Hemisphere which tells me the trainers thought he would struggle in it. Thats my query, his best form has been on good tracks and coming back from a long break, Id expect him to take a run or two.
Order Again ($9) I was a touch disappointed with his run last start because he should have won the two before. Everything went his way last start and he let us down a touch. Weve just sort of freshened him up and brought him back to 1400m. I think buried away, having the last shot at them might be the way to ride him. Plus, he will be entered (Friday) for the Rowley Mile next week (Thursday) and well decide if we hold him back for that before Saturday.
https://www.racenet.com.au/horse/savacool" rel="nofollow - Savacool ($20) She needs a firmer track. Her target race is the Premiers Cup in two weeks so its a maintenance run. On a good track shed be competitive over 1400m, on a wet track I think she will struggle.
Pancho ($7) He needs a couple of scratchings to get a run but hes come back well. His first couple of runs last prep were really good but his last couple were disappointing. Im putting the autumn behind us and hoping he can get back to his better form from last spring because he was running right in behind those good colts in certain races. He has form around a horse like Russian Camelot in the spring last year, if he can get back to that sort of form the owners are going to have a lot of fun with him in the months ahead, in those second tier races just below Group I level. Hes pretty fit going into Saturday, has some wet track form and a light weight. Hes a cheeky chance.
Related Topics: https://www.racenet.com.au/news/topic/melbourne-cup" rel="nofollow - Melbourne Cup https://www.racenet.com.au/news/topic/chris-waller" rel="nofollow - Chris Waller https://www.racenet.com.au/news/topic/bart-cummings" rel="nofollow - Bart Cummings https://www.racenet.com.au/news/topic/shared-ambition" rel="nofollow - Shared Ambition
https://www.racenet.com.au/news/chris-waller-adopts-the-bart-cummings-type-melbourne-cup--approach-20200813" rel="nofollow - View article with comments
------------- Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
Posted By: VOYAGER
Date Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 8:15pm
I am a fan of this horse but $26 for a horse who has to even qualify is just silly to me.
His form is okay, without being outstanding and he has find a way to qualify so shouldn't he be at least $51.00?
------------- Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
Posted By: djebel
Date Posted: 13 Aug 2020 at 8:36pm
Do the corporates give your money back if the horse is not nominated ?
------------- reductio ad absurdum
Posted By: cotto1
Date Posted: 17 Aug 2020 at 9:46am
Hi there guys:
Is it at the end of August.that you nominate to say you are aiming to go to the Melbourne cup.should be interesting to see whos coming hey guys.or are we already to late for that with Victoria.
Posted By: cotto1
Date Posted: 17 Aug 2020 at 9:55am
Hi there guys:
Just literally seen.it is the 25th of August that you say you are aiming for the cup.boy thats coming quick.
Posted By: Second Chance
Date Posted: 17 Aug 2020 at 10:05am
I thought he'd nearly be favourite.
Tlazolteotl wrote:
) so what do we feel the field will be if the internationals can not get to Melbourne?
