Experiment this Saturday, please read.
Printed From: Thoroughbred Village
Category: Horse Racing - Public Forums
Forum Name: Tipping and Wagering
Forum Description: Profit from the horses
URL: https://forum.thoroughbredvillage.com.au/forum_posts.asp?TID=63604
Printed Date: 29 Mar 2024 at 6:10pm Software Version: Web Wiz Forums 12.05 - http://www.webwizforums.com
Topic: Experiment this Saturday, please read.
Posted By: Mayor
Subject: Experiment this Saturday, please read.
Date Posted: 27 Feb 2019 at 10:14am
Here's an experiment I'm doing this Saturday, for Villagebet.
Can I ask you to try to pick the winner in each race this Saturday at Flemington, by nominating 4 horses in each race.
4 horses in each race! Surely you can tip the card. Surely..
Please also nominate a 5th horse in each race, just in case there's a late scratching.
Entries will be open all day Friday and also on Saturday morning, until about 10am.
Note that the races are starting earlier because of the heat. First race is 10:55am!
In this thread, (press reply to this post), enter your selections by submitting something like this...
Race 1, Nos., 1,8,12,14,(16) Race 2, Nos., 2,6,8,12,(5) Race 3, Nos., 5,7,9,15,(4) etc...
Copy and paste this template and fill it in:
Race 1, Nos., ,,,,() Race 2, Nos., ,,,,() Race 3, Nos., ,,,,() Race 4, Nos., ,,,,() Race 5, Nos., ,,,,() Race 6, Nos., ,,,,() Race 7, Nos., ,,,,() Race 8, Nos., ,,,,() Race 9, Nos., ,,,,()
Note: Try to keep the commas as they are shown here, as it will be easier for me to import into the spreadsheet.
Prize for tipping the card? .. VILLAGE BRAGGING RIGHTS!
Many thanks for your participation. I'm going to collate the data and report results, so the more entries the greater sample size. Thank you!
Cheers
------------- Mayor
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Replies:
Posted By: Xavier
Date Posted: 01 Mar 2019 at 10:14am
I’ll give it a crack.
Race 1, Nos., 1,2,7,8,(3) Race 2, Nos., 5,2,9,6,(10) Race 3, Nos., 3,2,8,4,(7) Race 4, Nos., 3,6,8,5,(2) Race 5, Nos., 3,4,10,7,(9) Race 6, Nos., 1,7,13,3,(12) Race 7, Nos., 3,4,5,6,(7) Race 8, Nos., 1,8,14,4,(15) Race 9, Nos., 1,3,9,14,(6)
------------- Karl and Susan Kennedy are my heroes
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Posted By: AndiCap
Date Posted: 01 Mar 2019 at 3:27pm
Race 1, Nos.,2 ,5,1,7,(6) Race 2, Nos.,5 ,3,7,9,(2) Race 3, Nos.,4 ,1,2,6,(7) Race 4, Nos., 8,6,3,7,(5) Race 5, Nos.,1 ,3,4,9,(6) Race 6, Nos.,3 ,1,7,6,(5) Race 7, Nos.,1 ,4,6,5,(11) Race 8, Nos., 7,1,5,14,(2) Race 9, Nos.,3 ,8,1,2,(5)
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Posted By: Dillwar
Date Posted: 01 Mar 2019 at 5:32pm
Race 1, Nos., 2,7,1,4,(5) Race 2, Nos., 5,2,9,6,(7) Race 3, Nos., 8,7,2,6,(1) Race 4, Nos., 7,8,6,5,(3) Race 5, Nos., 4,9,6,8,(10) Race 6, Nos., 3,1,7,12,(9) Race 7, Nos., 6,9,1,4,(11) Race 8, Nos., 14,15,4,8,(7) Race 9, Nos., 14,2,12,7,(10)
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Posted By: Dizzy
Date Posted: 01 Mar 2019 at 5:45pm
Race 1, Nos.,1,2,5,7, (4)
Race 2, Nos., 2,5,6,9, (3)
Race 3, Nos.,2,9,7,8, (3)
Race 4, Nos.,5,6,7,8, (4)
Race 5, Nos.,1,4,9,10, (8)
Race 6, Nos.,1,3,7,10, (12)
Race 7, Nos.,1,4,6,11, (9)
Race 8, Nos.,4,5,14,15, (8)
Race 9, Nos.,2,7,8,14,
(9)
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Posted By: maccamax
Date Posted: 01 Mar 2019 at 5:52pm
Race 1, Nos.,2 ,5,7,1,(6) Race 2, Nos.,5 ,2,9,6,(4) Race 3, Nos.,8 ,7,2,6,(3) Race 4, Nos.,7 ,6,8,3,(4) Race 5, Nos.,4 ,9,6,10,(3) Race 6, Nos.,3 ,1,9,11,(7) Race 7, Nos.,4 ,6,1,11,(9) Race 8, Nos.,15 ,8,14,4,(2) Race 9, Nos.,2 ,14,7,10,(1)
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Posted By: VOYAGER
Date Posted: 01 Mar 2019 at 6:48pm
Race 1, Nos.,7 ,2,4,10,(6) Race 2, Nos.,5 ,2,6,9,(7) Race 3, Nos.,2 ,7,8,1,(4) Race 4, Nos.,5 ,6,8,3,(7) Race 5, Nos.,4 ,2,10,8,(3) Race 6, Nos.,3 ,12,7,9,(13) Race 7, Nos.,1 ,6,4,5,(15) Race 8, Nos.,14 ,15,5,1,(4) Race 9, Nos.,4 ,14,9,7,(9)
------------- Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Posted By: Euripedes
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 8:07am
Race 1, Nos., 4,7,11,12,(2) Race 2, Nos., 2,5,6,7,(3) Race 3, Nos., 2,3,7,8,(4) Race 4, Nos., 5,6,7,8,(3) Race 5, Nos., 3,4,6,9,(2) Race 6, Nos., 1,7,9,11,(12) Race 7, Nos., 4,5,6,8,(11) Race 8, Nos., 3,5,8,14,(1) Race 9, Nos., 1,2,3,9,(14)
------------- Euripides (c. 480-406 BC)
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Posted By: Mayor
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 8:21am
If anyone wants to change their tips due to a scratching, just reply and put up a new post, and I'll take your latest post as final.
Thanks for entering!
(I appreciate the hard work to do this, cheers)
------------- Mayor
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Posted By: Dizzy
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 9:15am
Dizzy wrote:
Race 1, Nos.,1,2,5,7, (4)
Race 2, Nos.,2,5,6,3, (4)
Race 3, Nos.,2,4,7,8, (3)
Race 4, Nos.,5,6,7,8, (4)
Race 5, Nos.,1,4,9,10, (8)
Race 6, Nos.,1,9,7,10, (12)
Race 7, Nos.,1,4,6,11, (9)
Race 8, Nos.,4,5,14,15, (8)
Race 9, Nos.,2,7,8,14,
(9)
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Updated
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Posted By: stayer
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 9:30am
Race 1, Nos., 1,2,4,7,(3) Race 2, Nos., 2,5,6,7,(3) Race 3, Nos., 2,6,7,8,(1) Race 4, Nos., 3,6,7,8,(5) Race 5, Nos., 1,4,8,9,(10) Race 6, Nos., 1,7,12,13,(9) Race 7, Nos., 5,6,10,11,(15) Race 8, Nos., 2,7,14,15,(5) Race 9, Nos., 1,2,10,14,(7)
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Posted By: Sister Dot
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 10:14am
R No 1; 7,2,5,4 (6) R No 2; 5,2,9,6 (1) R No3; 2,7,8,4 (3) R No 4; 5,7,8,6 (3) R No 5; 3,4,9,10 (6) R No 6; 12,1,11,7 (13) R No 7; 6,1,11,4 (9) R No 8; 4,15,14,2 (11) R No 9; 14,2,8,7 (12)
------------- “Where in this wide world can man find nobility without pride, friendship without envy, or beauty without vanity? Here where grace is laced with muscle and strength by gentleness confined”
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Posted By: Vixen
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 10:29am
Race 1, Nos.2,1,4,7, (5)
Race 2, Nos.5,2,6,7,(3)
Race 3, Nos.7,8,2,6,4(1)
Race 4, Nos 6,7,5,8,(3)
Race 5, Nos. 4,9,6,10,(3)
Race 6, Nos. 12,9,11,6,(13)
Race 7, Nos. 6,1,11,4,(5)
Race 8, Nos.14,15,8,4(1)
Race 9, Nos.14,2,7,10,(12)
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Posted By: Vixen
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 10:30am
* its only 9.30am where i am !!
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Posted By: Sister Dot
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 10:37am
Race 1, Nos., 7,2,5,4,(6) Race 2, Nos., 5,2,6,3,(7) Race 3, Nos., 2,7,8,4,(3) Race 4, Nos., 5,7,8,6,(3) Race 5, Nos., 3,4,9,10,(6) Race 6, Nos., 12,1,11,7,(13) Race 7, Nos., 6,1,11,4,(9) Race 8, Nos., 4,15,14,2,(11) Race 9, Nos., 14,2,8,7,(12)
------------- “Where in this wide world can man find nobility without pride, friendship without envy, or beauty without vanity? Here where grace is laced with muscle and strength by gentleness confined”
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Posted By: TIGER
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 10:49am
I'm boxing the entire card
------------- EAD
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Posted By: Dizzy
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 11:00am
Lol that was quick. All out in the first.
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Posted By: stayer
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 11:00am
All out.
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Posted By: Mayor
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 11:03am
Tipping the Card quickly off the table.
------------- Mayor
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Posted By: TIGER
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 11:03am
R1 2,4,6,10 - Was run when doing tips, didn't look R2 2,5,6,7 R3 2,6,7,8 R4 3,6,7,8 R5 4,6,8,9 R6 2,7,9,12 R7 1,6,11,15 R8 4,11,14,15 R9 2,3,12,14
------------- EAD
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Posted By: TIGER
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 11:06am
TIGER wrote:
R1 2,4,6,10 - Was run when doing tips, didn't look R2 2,5,6,7 R3 2,6,7,8 R4 3,6,7,8 R5 4,6,8,9 R6 2,7,9,12 R7 1,6,11,15 R8 4,11,14,15 R9 2,3,12,14 |
Oh well out, rules are rules, didn't have tips in on time
------------- EAD
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Posted By: maccamax
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 11:12am
My box of 5 got the First 4 in R1... $4311.. What's the prize.?
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Posted By: TIGER
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 11:15am
maccamax wrote:
My box of 5 got the First 4 in R1... $4311.. What's the prize.? |
Scan your ticket, collect the cash and go home
------------- EAD
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Posted By: Mayor
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 12:10pm
Good job maccamax, given Mockery started at $18.80
maccamax wrote:
My box of 5 got the First 4 in R1... $4311.. What's the prize.? |
------------- Mayor
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Posted By: Mayor
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 12:12pm
Yeah, unfortunately can't really accept it. It's a pity because you would have kept us alive.
TIGER wrote:
Oh well out, rules are rules, didn't have tips in on time |
------------- Mayor
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Posted By: Whale
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 1:24pm
TIGER wrote:
TIGER wrote:
R1 2,4,6,10 - Was run when doing tips, didn't look R2 2,5,6,7 R3 2,6,7,8 R4 3,6,7,8 R5 4,6,8,9 R6 2,7,9,12 R7 1,6,11,15 R8 4,11,14,15 R9 2,3,12,14 |
Oh well out, rules are rules, didn't have tips in on time |
you can't help lying can you ?
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Posted By: maccamax
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 2:07pm
One would expect Whale not to troll us cripples in front of the Mayor and unsettle members trying to be a part a new style & interesting concept.
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Posted By: stayer
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 2:18pm
Doesn't matter anyway - we'd still all be out by now.
What's the aim and hypothesis of this experiment, Mr Mayor? Will it be a weekly thing?
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Posted By: Mayor
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 2:41pm
If people enjoy it, we can make it a weekly thing?
I was just reading up about Dutch Staking Plans... where you select several runners in a field and try to guarantee a result. I was just curious as to whether, from picking 4 horses in each race, what percentage of winners you would expect to get throughout the day. For example, if you got the winner in 5 of the 9 races, the percentage would be 55%. What would you expect to get?
I thought if I could get a sample of punters and see what sort of average percentage winners they got from 4 selections in each race, it would tell us the approximate chance of this type of staking plan succeeding.
"Dutch Staking or Dutching is a staking strategy used to divide your stake over a number of selections in a market so that a consistent amount is won regardless of which selection wins. This method is commonly used when there are two or more outcomes in an event that a punter wants to back. Horse racing punters often use Dutching when backing multiple runners."
http://villagebet.com.au/staking-plan-to-ensure-a-winning-day-at-the-races/" rel="nofollow - Related article
------------- Mayor
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Posted By: bigal
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 3:09pm
01/01/2017 to 02/03/2019 Race Area Bets Win Plc WOut WRet WPrf RACE W% WPOT ------------------------------------------------------------- Metropolitan 75091180 130154 115429 -14725 62.7 -11.3Don't know if this helps Mayor, it's just a snapshot.I ran the top 4 in the freely available Qld Tab ratings, then dutched them to win $100 at SP for Saturday races only in metro Syd and Melb.. The race win s/rate was pretty good at 62.7% but lost 11.3% at SP.I believe that is about what you could expect to get from ANY FREE ratings.ALLAN
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Posted By: bigal
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 3:19pm
INTERESTINGLY.....this is the same thing but for ONE of the paid ratings that I subscribe to. 01/01/2017 to 02/03/2019 Race Area Bets Win Plc WOut WRet WPrf RACE W% WPOT ------------------------------------------------------------- Metropolitan 75101236 134225 120978 -13247 65.7 -9.9 only a few % better on s/r and cracks the under 10% loss (just). ALLAN
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Posted By: bigal
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 3:36pm
these are how you would have done your investments at Melb last Saturday. 23/02/2019 12:35 Caulfield 1 1 Jaameh PACE 8 6.5 -13 13 VIC 23/02/2019 12:35 Caulfield 1 2 Sikandarabad PACE 1 3.50 2.5 57 VIC 23/02/2019 12:35 Caulfield 1 3 Midterm PACE 3 3.5 35 22 VIC 23/02/2019 12:35 Caulfield 1 4 Call Me Handsome PACE 2 6.0 21 36 VIC 23/02/2019 1:10: Caulfield 2 1 Aramayo PACE 3 2.5 -7 64 VIC 23/02/2019 1:10: Caulfield 2 2 Cossetot PACE 2 3.7 -28 85 VIC 23/02/2019 1:10: Caulfield 2 3 Declares War PACE 5 7.5 -39 96 VIC 23/02/2019 1:10: Caulfield 2 13 Lunar Flare PACE 11 3.5 -61 118 VIC
23/02/2019 1:45: Caulfield 3 1 I Am A Star PACE 6 3.0 -86 143 VIC 23/02/2019 1:45: Caulfield 3 4 Jamaican Rain PACE 1 6.00 5.0 -6 63 VIC 23/02/2019 1:45: Caulfield 3 6 Teleplay PACE 3 10.0 -15 72 VIC 23/02/2019 1:45: Caulfield 3 8 Naantali PACE 2 3.5 -37 94 VIC
23/02/2019 2:20: Caulfield 4 1 Futooh PACE 9 10.0 -46 103 VIC 23/02/2019 2:20: Caulfield 4 2 Angelic Ruler PACE 2 1.6 -84 141 VIC 23/02/2019 2:20: Caulfield 4 3 Qafila PACE 1 6.50 5.5 -2 59 VIC 23/02/2019 2:20: Caulfield 4 5 News Girl PACE 4 5.5 -17 74 VIC
23/02/2019 2:55: Caulfield 5 1 Zousain PACE 2 0.4 -88 145 VIC 23/02/2019 2:55: Caulfield 5 5 Poised To Strike PACE 5 6.5 -101 158 VIC 23/02/2019 2:55: Caulfield 5 6 Yulong January PACE 3 7.5 -112 169 VIC 23/02/2019 2:55: Caulfield 5 7 Terbium PACE 1 7.50 6.5 -28 85 VIC
23/02/2019 3:30: Caulfield 6 2 Le Romain PACE 8 10.0 -37 94 VIC 23/02/2019 3:30: Caulfield 6 7 Land Of Plenty PACE 4 6.0 -51 108 VIC 23/02/2019 3:30: Caulfield 6 9 Manuel PACE 5 10.0 -60 117 VIC 23/02/2019 3:30: Caulfield 6 11 Alizee PACE 1 2.70 1.7 2 55 VIC
23/02/2019 4:10: Caulfield 7 1 I Am Immortal PACE 7 8.0 -9 66 VIC 23/02/2019 4:10: Caulfield 7 7 Lyre PACE 1 7.50 6.5 75 VIC 23/02/2019 4:10: Caulfield 7 8 Vinicunca PACE 8 9.0 65 10 VIC 23/02/2019 4:10: Caulfield 7 11 Athiri PACE 4 3.7 44 31 VIC 23/02/2019 4:50: Caulfield 8 3 Nature Strip PACE 10 1.2 -1 76 VIC 23/02/2019 4:50: Caulfield 8 4 Fell Swoop PACE 6 16.0 -6 81 VIC 23/02/2019 4:50: Caulfield 8 5 Bons Away PACE 4 9.0 -16 91 VIC 23/02/2019 4:50: Caulfield 8 10 Eduardo PACE 3 4.0 -36 111 VIC
23/02/2019 5:30: Caulfield 9 3 Trap For Fools PACE 2 14.0 -42 117 VIC 23/02/2019 5:30: Caulfield 9 7 The Taj Mahal PACE 8 8.0 -53 128 VIC 23/02/2019 5:30: Caulfield 9 8 Avilius PACE 1 1.90 0.9 -7 82 VIC 23/02/2019 5:30: Caulfield 9 9 Nights Watch PACE 4 5.0 -23 98 VIC
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Posted By: TIGER
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 4:04pm
Stop embarrassing yourself whale
I missed three races as it was, 4 including my late tips in race 1 for being late which didn't count and rightly so.
Will give it another crack next week, not as easy as it looks
Have a nice day
------------- EAD
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Posted By: stayer
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 4:12pm
Mayor wrote:
If people enjoy it, we can make it a weekly thing?
I was just reading up about Dutch Staking Plans... where you select several runners in a field and try to guarantee a result. I was just curious as to whether, from picking 4 horses in each race, what percentage of winners you would expect to get throughout the day. For example, if you got the winner in 5 of the 9 races, the percentage would be 55%. What would you expect to get?
I thought if I could get a sample of punters and see what sort of average percentage winners they got from 4 selections in each race, it would tell us the approximate chance of this type of staking plan succeeding.
"Dutch Staking or Dutching is a staking strategy used to divide your stake over a number of selections in a market so that a consistent amount is won regardless of which selection wins. This method is commonly used when there are two or more outcomes in an event that a punter wants to back. Horse racing punters often use Dutching when backing multiple runners."
http://villagebet.com.au/staking-plan-to-ensure-a-winning-day-at-the-races/" rel="nofollow - Related article
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Posted By: maccamax
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 5:13pm
Dutching has been a very successful method over the years .
Being selective with the chosen races is paramount.
Don Scott changed the "Punt" forever , after he released his books ( commencing in 1978). Educating Punters saw Bookmakers getting hammered , back in those days. Tougher now , of course, but still OK for the keen form students.
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Posted By: TIGER
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 5:55pm
Don Scotts practical punting was a favourite of mine
------------- EAD
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Posted By: Mayor
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 10:01pm
I've done the calculations.
There were 10 individual tipsters who got an average of 4.7 winners from the 9 races.
Strike rate is therefore 52%
Conclusion: Even if we select 4 horses in a race, we can only expect to get the winner 52% of the time.
Our data shows that even if you bet with a staking plan on 4 horses in a race, there is still a 48% chance that the winner will come from outside those 4 horses.
By the way, Euripedes won with 6 winners
------------- Mayor
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Posted By: bigal
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 10:31pm
Mayor wrote:
I've done the calculations.
There were 10 individual tipsters who got an average of 4.7 winners from the 9 races.
Strike rate is therefore 52%
Conclusion: Even if we select 4 horses in a race, we can only expect to get the winner 52% of the time.
Our data shows that even if you bet with a staking plan on 4 horses in a race, there is still a 48% chance that the winner will come from outside those 4 horses.
By the way, Euripedes won with 6 winners
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Mayor, just dutching the first 4 in the market gives you a 70% PLUS s/rate!! Again based on Saturday metro Vic and Sydney. ALLAN
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Posted By: maccamax
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 10:55pm
Mayor wrote:
I've done the calculations.
There were 10 individual tipsters who got an average of 4.7 winners from the 9 races.
Strike rate is therefore 52%
Conclusion: Even if we select 4 horses in a race, we can only expect to get the winner 52% of the time.
Our data shows that even if you bet with a staking plan on 4 horses in a race, there is still a 48% chance that the winner will come from outside those 4 horses.
By the way, Euripedes won with 6 winners
| A bad day at Flemington today , as an example for any percentages. Given that 5 of the races were won by outsiders. 1 at odds on , so any method, betting in all 9 events would be a disaster. As was said the true % is 70% over time , Not 52. All interesting & entertaining I expect , but to build any mechanical methods , there is need for statistics over many years. Be a master of self control , bet strictly & safely to the available Bank and have the skills to get an edge on price shopping. Rest assured they have all "been done to death".
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Posted By: Mayor
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 11:28pm
bigal wrote:
Mayor, just dutching the first 4 in the market gives you a 70% PLUS s/rate!! Again based on Saturday metro Vic and Sydney.
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Thanks Alan and maccamax,
70%, is that a mathematical conclusion? Like, what it's meant to be, based on probabilities? Maybe it depends on the number of runners?
Did you work it out for today? The s/rate for the first 4 in the market.
------------- Mayor
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Posted By: bigal
Date Posted: 03 Mar 2019 at 8:16am
not a mathematical CALCULATION. based on ACTUAL race results/prices for the last 14 years racing.This is the result if you Dutched the first 4 in the market in that time: 01/01/2005 to 03/03/2019 Race Bets Win WOut WRet WPrf RACE W% WPOT -------------------------------------------------------------
Totals 47597 8804 967585 865103 -102482 74.0 -10.4 ALLAN
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Posted By: bigal
Date Posted: 03 Mar 2019 at 8:24am
So, what you would have done was dutch the 1st 4 in the market say with 2 minutes to go before the start of the race ...... What if you backed them at LEVEL STAKES at best of 3 tabs/SP. You cannot dutch them at best of 3 tabs/SP as you do not know what the final tab prices are going to be. 01/01/2005 to 03/03/2019 Race Bets Win WOut WRet WPrf RACE W% WPOT Totals 47600 8804 4760000 4395340 -364660 74.0 -7.7 ALLAN
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Posted By: bigal
Date Posted: 03 Mar 2019 at 8:32am
BUT... if you dutched them 2 mins b4 the race based on the bookie prices BUT backed them at best of 3 tabs/SP your result would have been: 01/01/2005 to 03/03/2019 Race Bets Win WOut WRet WPrf RACE W% WPOT -------------------------------------------------------------
Totals 47597 8804 967585 911045 -56540 18 -5.8 ALLAN
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Posted By: maccamax
Date Posted: 03 Mar 2019 at 12:21pm
Sounds a bit like the very old and well advertised , ROYAL ROUTINE SYSTEM ,usually carried a very large Ad. in Sportsman for many years .
Based on your favourite Media Tipsters .
All of these methods ,of numerous columns, chasing losses , CRASH in the end.
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Posted By: bigal
Date Posted: 03 Mar 2019 at 12:27pm
maccamax wrote:
Sounds a bit like the very old and well advertised , ROYAL ROUTINE SYSTEM ,usually carried a very large Ad. in Sportsman for many years .
Based on your favourite Media Tipsters .
All of these methods ,of numerous columns, chasing losses , CRASH in the end. |
I think you are the one that said........ if it ain't making money at SP........FORGET IT!! BUT that creates a whole new debate (staking/chasing losses), which has been done to death on here previously. Allan
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Posted By: maccamax
Date Posted: 03 Mar 2019 at 12:53pm
bigal wrote:
maccamax wrote:
Sounds a bit like the very old and well advertised , ROYAL ROUTINE SYSTEM ,usually carried a very large Ad. in Sportsman for many years .
Based on your favourite Media Tipsters .
All of these methods ,of numerous columns, chasing losses , CRASH in the end. |
I think you are the one that said........ if it ain't making money at SP........FORGET IT!! BUT that creates a whole new debate (staking/chasing losses), which has been done to death on here previously. Allan |
All I said about SP was , It is the best guide to the merits of Tipping, In contrast to claims people make about the "overs" they get. Tom Waterhouse a good case to use as the example . He beats SP by 40% he claims ... Which isn't possible over time. Gives him a claim to hide behind.
BUT , fools keep paying him incredible money to be misled.
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Posted By: Whale
Date Posted: 03 Mar 2019 at 1:04pm
Keep the experiment going Mayor, I will put in my selections next week, will be easier to make a profit
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Posted By: bigal
Date Posted: 03 Mar 2019 at 1:10pm
maccamax wrote:
bigal wrote:
maccamax wrote:
Sounds a bit like the very old and well advertised , ROYAL ROUTINE SYSTEM ,usually carried a very large Ad. in Sportsman for many years .
Based on your favourite Media Tipsters .
All of these methods ,of numerous columns, chasing losses , CRASH in the end. |
I think you are the one that said........ if it ain't making money at SP........FORGET IT!! BUT that creates a whole new debate (staking/chasing losses), which has been done to death on here previously. Allan |
All I said about SP was , It is the best guide to the merits of Tipping, . |
yes, I am agreeing with you.................... when I am creating a system I ONLY look at how the base rule performed at SP!! That then gives me a starting point "in the black" to work with as if it did not start with a profit, I dismiss it. 99/100 ideas are dismissed!! ALLAN
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Posted By: maccamax
Date Posted: 03 Mar 2019 at 1:22pm
Bigal:-yes, I am agreeing with you.................... when I am creating a system I ONLY look at how the base rule performed at SP
QUOTE:_ Exactly , And , with a set of suitable Rules, A Bank, Self control & patience , There are profitable methods out there. That's why Bookmakers ban/ restrict Winners.
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Posted By: bigal
Date Posted: 03 Mar 2019 at 1:46pm
maccamax wrote:
Bigal:-yes, I am agreeing with you.................... when I am creating a system I ONLY look at how the base rule performed at SP
QUOTE:_ Exactly , And , with a set of suitable Rules, A Bank, Self control & patience , There are profitable methods out there. That's why Bookmakers ban/ restrict Winners. |
that's why they USED TO ban/ restrict Winners.......... ALLAN
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Posted By: Mayor
Date Posted: 03 Mar 2019 at 5:53pm
Is that right? 18% ?
What's the cause of that? Can you explain?
Great discussion guys, very interesting. Mayor
bigal wrote:
BUT... if you dutched them 2 mins b4 the race based on the bookie prices BUT backed them at best of 3 tabs/SP your result would have been: 01/01/2005 to 03/03/2019 Race Bets Win WOut WRet WPrf RACE W% WPOT -------------------------------------------------------------
Totals 47597 8804 967585 911045 -56540 18 -5.8 ALLAN
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------------- Mayor
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Posted By: bigal
Date Posted: 03 Mar 2019 at 5:58pm
Mayor wrote:
Is that right? 18% ?
What's the cause of that? Can you explain?
Great discussion guys, very interesting. Mayor
bigal wrote:
BUT... if you dutched them 2 mins b4 the race based on the bookie prices BUT backed them at best of 3 tabs/SP your result would have been: 01/01/2005 to 03/03/2019 Race Bets Win WOut WRet WPrf RACE W% WPOT -------------------------------------------------------------
Totals 47597 8804 967585 911045 -56540 18 -5.8 ALLAN
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sorry that is the % of winners from the 4 runners....... needs to be converted to "RACE" s/r and I change it manually, forgot to "change it to Race s/r" that's all. ALLAN
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Posted By: VOYAGER
Date Posted: 04 Mar 2019 at 3:50pm
Okay I have had time on my hands and this is what I came up with from all our tips.
I have used a level stake of ten dollars on all runners, including the 5th selection, and used the NSW TAB dividends.
1. Maccamax - Spent $430 Return $577 = Profit of $147 2. Voyager - Spent $430 Return $575 = Profit of $145 3. Andicap - Spent $430 Return $509 = Profit of $ 79 4. Vixen - Spent $450 Return $472 = Profit of $ 27 5. Sister Dot-Spent $440 Return $455 = Profit of $ 15 6. Dizzy - Spent $430 Return $435 = Profit of $ 5 7. Euripides- Spent $450 Return $427 = Loss of $ 23 8. Stayer - Spent $450 Return $348 = Loss of $102 9. Dillwar - Spent $450 Return $249 = Loss of $201 10.Xavier - Spent $450 Return $237 = Loss of $213
So 6 out of the 10 had a profit.
A few got some first fours and trifectas with Maccamax getting the best result from the exotics and Andicap also got the first four in the first.
------------- Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Posted By: Mayor
Date Posted: 04 Mar 2019 at 4:33pm
Wow, that's an interesting development.
Not only to make sure you select the winner but also to select with value to increase profits.
Euripedes selected 6 of the 9 winners but made a loss? sheesh!
I like this aspect. Next week will be exciting!
Was the spend different because of scratchings?
------------- Mayor
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Posted By: Sister Dot
Date Posted: 04 Mar 2019 at 4:36pm
R2 I snagged the first 4, in order. Would have been a good result if I’d have thought to do it 😊
------------- “Where in this wide world can man find nobility without pride, friendship without envy, or beauty without vanity? Here where grace is laced with muscle and strength by gentleness confined”
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Posted By: Sister Dot
Date Posted: 04 Mar 2019 at 4:40pm
Sister Dot wrote:
R2 I snagged the first 4, in order. Would have been a good result if I’d have thought to do it 😊 | Paid $28.10 ☹️
------------- “Where in this wide world can man find nobility without pride, friendship without envy, or beauty without vanity? Here where grace is laced with muscle and strength by gentleness confined”
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Posted By: VOYAGER
Date Posted: 04 Mar 2019 at 4:49pm
Mayor wrote:
Wow, that's an interesting development.
Not only to make sure you select the winner but also to select with value to increase profits.
Euripedes selected 6 of the 9 winners but made a loss? sheesh!
I like this aspect. Next week will be exciting!
Was the spend different because of scratchings?
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Yeah the spend was different Mayor because some had Surprise Baby and also Widgee Turf, who were both scratched.
------------- Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Posted By: VOYAGER
Date Posted: 08 Mar 2019 at 4:55pm
Okay here we go having another try at the card.
Race1, Nos.,3,5,8,7,(2) Race2, Nos.,4,1,7,2,(11) Race3, Nos.,6,1,11,3,(8) Race4, Nos.,3,5,2,1,(7) Race5, Nos.,1,2,10,12,(11) Race6, Nos.,14,4,22,17,(1) Race7, Nos.,11,2,1,7,(6) Race8, Nos.,7,3,1,15,(6) Race9, Nos.,2,1,5,8,(10)
Good luck everyone!
------------- Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Posted By: VOYAGER
Date Posted: 08 Mar 2019 at 5:04pm
I know it is not part of the experiment, but I love doing this so I will put in Randwick as well.
Race1, Nos.,1,3,5,7,(6) Race2, Nos.,2,4,6,10,(9) Race3, Nos.,4,1,2,10,(3) Race4, Nos.,1,2,4,8,(7) Race5, Nos.,1,2,7,5,(3) Race6, Nos.,2,5,3,7,(1) Race7, Nos.,7,1,8,4,(3) Race8, Nos.,6,1,3,8,(2) Race9, Nos.,1,10,7,4,(2)
------------- Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Posted By: AndiCap
Date Posted: 08 Mar 2019 at 8:33pm
Race1, Nos.,3,4,8,7,(2) Race2, Nos.,4,1,7,2,(3) Race3, Nos.,6,1,11,12,(2) Race4, Nos.,3,5,2,6,(7) Race5, Nos.,3,2,10,12,(11) Race6, Nos.,5,4,22,2,(6) Race7, Nos.,10,12,1,14,(5) Race8, Nos.,7,2,1,4,(12) Race9, Nos.,2,11,4,12,(7)
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Posted By: Mayor
Date Posted: 09 Mar 2019 at 8:15am
Yes, feel free to post today's selections. 4 in each race plus a supplementary.
Midday cut-off for Melbourne races.
------------- Mayor
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Posted By: Euripedes
Date Posted: 09 Mar 2019 at 8:30am
Race 1, Nos., 2,5,7,8,(4) Race 2, Nos., 1,2,3,7,(4) Race 3, Nos., 3,6,8,11,(1) Race 4, Nos., 1,2,4,5,(3) Race 5, Nos., 2,3,8,9,(10) Race 6, Nos., 2,4,6,20,(21) Race 7, Nos., 1,4,10,14,(12) Race 8, Nos., 1,7,11,15,(6) Race 9, Nos., 1,2,5,10,(7)
------------- Euripides (c. 480-406 BC)
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Posted By: Dizzy
Date Posted: 09 Mar 2019 at 9:27am
Race 1, Nos.,4,5,7,8, (2)
Race 2, Nos., 1,2,4,7, (10)
Race 3, Nos.,3,6,7,11, (1)
Race 4, Nos.,2,3,5,7, (6)
Race 5, Nos.,1,2,11,12, (6)
Race 6, Nos.,2,4,14,20, (5)
Race 7, Nos.,1,9,10,11, (14)
Race 8, Nos.,4,7,11,12, (1)
Race 9, Nos.,1,2,7,10,
(9)
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Posted By: TIGER
Date Posted: 09 Mar 2019 at 10:06am
R1 2,4,5,6.....8 R2 1,2,4,7....10 R3 3,6,7,11...8 R4 1,2,4,6....7 R5 1,2,10,12.....11 R6 2,3,4,6....20 R7 1,2,10,11....14 R8 2,7,9,12....15 R9 1,2,6,10...4
------------- EAD
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Posted By: stayer
Date Posted: 09 Mar 2019 at 10:18am
Race 1 Nos., 4,5,7,8 (6) Race 2 Nos., 1,2,4,7,(11) Race 3 Nos., 3,6,8,11 (1) Race 4 Nos., 2,3,7,10,(1) Race 5 Nos., 1,2,3,12 (10) Race 6 Nos., 2,4,14,20 (1) Race 7 Nos., 1,2,9,11 (10) Race 8 Nos., 2,6,7,9 (1) Race 8 Nos., 1,2,5,7 (10)
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Posted By: Sister Dot
Date Posted: 09 Mar 2019 at 10:23am
Race 1, Nos., 7,5,4,2,(3) Race 2, Nos.,7,10,1,3,(8) Race 3, Nos., 7,6,3,11,(8) Race 4, Nos., 3,2,7,6,(10) Race 5, Nos., 5,11,12,2,(8) Race 6, Nos., 14,20,22,6,(2) Race 7, Nos., 1,2,9,10,(5) Race 8, Nos., 7,15,12,4,(2)
------------- “Where in this wide world can man find nobility without pride, friendship without envy, or beauty without vanity? Here where grace is laced with muscle and strength by gentleness confined”
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Posted By: Vixen
Date Posted: 09 Mar 2019 at 11:04am
Race
1, Nos.,5,7,8,4,(2)
Race 2, Nos.,7,1,4,2,(10)
Race 3, Nos.,6,11,3,8,(7)
Race 4, Nos.,2,3,7,1,(4)
Race 5, Nos.,2,12,11,1,(10)
Race 6, Nos.,4,14,22,20,(2)
Race 7, Nos.,1,2,9,14,(10)
Race 8, Nos.,7,2,12,4,(3)
Race 9, Nos.,10,2,1,7,(4)
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Posted By: maccamax
Date Posted: 09 Mar 2019 at 11:13am
Race 1, Nos.,5 ,8,7,4,(2) Race 2, Nos.,1 ,7,10,4,(3) Race 3 , Nos.,6 ,3,7,8,(11) Race 4, Nos.,2 ,3,1,4,(5) Race 5, Nos.,1 ,2,12,11,(3) Race 6, Nos.,20 ,4,22,3,(9) Race 7, Nos.,1 ,9,2,11,(14) Race 8, Nos.,7 ,2,3,4,(11) Race 9, Nos.,2,1,4,5,(10)
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Posted By: Whale
Date Posted: 09 Mar 2019 at 11:46am
Posted By: Dizzy
Date Posted: 09 Mar 2019 at 12:40pm
Most out in the first again. Tiger and Whale still live.
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Posted By: Dizzy
Date Posted: 09 Mar 2019 at 12:55pm
Posted By: Euripedes
Date Posted: 09 Mar 2019 at 12:57pm
How can I have 4-5 horses in each race and still yet to find a winner? geez.
------------- Euripides (c. 480-406 BC)
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Posted By: Whale
Date Posted: 09 Mar 2019 at 1:11pm
Whale wrote:
r1 - 6,3,2,7 (5) |
that folks is how it is done, trifecta in order. Can't be bothered sharing the rest of my tips
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Posted By: VOYAGER
Date Posted: 09 Mar 2019 at 6:35pm
Okay here is our summary for today. Remember we are having a straight $10 on all selections including the reserve, and using the N.S.W TAB dividends.
5 tipsters selected 6 or more winners with Tiger the best with 7.
Both stayer and Voyager had the Australian Cup winner which paid $36.50 on the TAB.
6 of the 9 tipsters made a profit.
Voyager Spent $450. 6 winners for a profit of +$358. Stayer Spent $450. 6 winners for a profit of +$343. Euripedes Spent $450. 5 winners for a profit of +$198. Tiger Spent $450. 7 winners for a profit of +$133. Vixen Spent $450. 6 winners for a profit of +$ 66. Maccsamax Spent $450. 6 winners for a profit of +$ 52. Sister Dot Spent $400.4 winners for a loss of -$ 37. AndiCap Spent $440. 4 winners for a loss of -$ 83. Dizzy Spent $450. 3 winners for a loss of -$214.
------------- Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Posted By: stayer
Date Posted: 09 Mar 2019 at 8:29pm
No that's wrong I didn't win a cent today. Bloody Avilius - would have won me quaddie and multi.
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Posted By: VOYAGER
Date Posted: 09 Mar 2019 at 9:14pm
Sorry about the real world stayer, but it was one of my better days stayer.
The one thing this experiment has told me is whatever you think on Wednesday, do not second guess yourself!
------------- Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Posted By: VOYAGER
Date Posted: 09 Mar 2019 at 9:25pm
Just to show the importance of a staking plan.
At Randwick the only winner I did not have was Prophets Thumb, so I had 8 of the 9 winners. And I lost $68.
------------- Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Posted By: Mayor
Date Posted: 09 Mar 2019 at 9:42pm
Thanks for doing the hard work Voyager. Much appreciated.
And congrats on winning the most. Your shout!
Also to Tiger, 7 winners is great tipping!
What shall we do next week?
------------- Mayor
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Posted By: maccamax
Date Posted: 09 Mar 2019 at 9:43pm
VOYAGER wrote:
Just to show the importance of a staking plan.
At Randwick the only winner I did not have was Prophets Thumb, so I had 8 of the 9 winners. And I lost $68.
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Easy Done , The experiment has me looking at the exotics . Something I've never done. Landing the Newmarket first 4 in 4 , could have been a big payday.
The Handicapper got the merits of the Lightening very wrong. aye
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Posted By: Whale
Date Posted: 10 Mar 2019 at 12:09pm
Voyager, why count 5 per race, the original intention was 4 per race with 1 emergency in case of late scratching ?
Seems that you changed the playing field after the game started , the only reason I can think of is to include some of your emergencies which won.
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Posted By: Whale
Date Posted: 10 Mar 2019 at 12:19pm
by the way great tipping, especially race 8 no 1 tip at big odds
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Posted By: VOYAGER
Date Posted: 10 Mar 2019 at 3:28pm
I decided to add the fifth because of the exotics only costing $120 for the first four is boxed, so what I mean is that it does not cost that much, if you take it for 10%.
Six selections per race is probably too many and four limits the chances of the getting the exotics.
It is just an exotics thing!
------------- Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Posted By: maccamax
Date Posted: 10 Mar 2019 at 3:44pm
All entertaining and gives an interest in following the various tips.
Shows that multiple dutching is very likely, the way to go. With so many (45) bets showing profit for most.
With some selective approach on the better quality Races, There's a dollar to be made.
Cliff Carey of the 1940's 50's 60's , had a view on Rating Races that is just as accurate today as way back then.
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Posted By: VOYAGER
Date Posted: 14 Mar 2019 at 9:32pm
Okay love this ritual so here we go for Flemington.
Race 1, Nos., 10,5,6,4,(1) Race 2, Nos., 7,3,9,4,(8) Race 3, Nos., 7,3,1,2,(13) Race 4, Nos., 3,5,8,11,(1) Race 5, Nos., 12,19,3,7,(1) Race 6, Nos., 14,13,8,2,(11) Race 7, Nos., 1,3,9,13,(14) Race 8, Nos., 1,11,12,2,(13) Race 9, Nos., 2,7,5,4,(18)
Good luck everyone!
------------- Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Posted By: ExceedAndExcel
Date Posted: 14 Mar 2019 at 9:36pm
Whale wrote:
Whale wrote:
r1 - 6,3,2,7 (5) |
that folks is how it is done, trifecta in order. Can't be bothered sharing the rest of my tips |
Great tipping Whale! Would have made a few jealous I’d imagine!
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Posted By: Sister Dot
Date Posted: 14 Mar 2019 at 11:52pm
Race 1, Nos., 10,8,1,4,(5) Race 2, Nos., 7,1,3,4,(6) Race 3, Nos., 2,1,4,10 (7) Race 4, Nos., 2,4,13,9,(11) Race 5, Nos., 3,7,5,13,(14) Race 6, Nos., 10,9,6,7,(12) Race 7, Nos., 13,3,1,7,(9) Race 8, Nos., 11,4,1,2,(14) Race 9, Nos., 15,5,9,7,(1)
------------- “Where in this wide world can man find nobility without pride, friendship without envy, or beauty without vanity? Here where grace is laced with muscle and strength by gentleness confined”
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Posted By: TIGER
Date Posted: 16 Mar 2019 at 7:51am
R1...3,5,8,10 - 6 R2...4,5,7,8 - 9 R3.. 1,2,6,7 - 12 R4...4,8,9,11 - 12 R5...1,7,10,14 - 12 R6...5,6,7,14 - 8 R7...1,3,7,9 - 10 R8...1,2,11,13 - 14 R9...4,5,9,12 - 8
------------- EAD
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Posted By: Euripedes
Date Posted: 16 Mar 2019 at 8:55am
Race 1, Nos., 1,3,5,10,(4) Race 2, Nos., 4,5,7,9,(11) Race 3, Nos., 2,3,6,7,(13) Race 4, Nos., 2,7,8,9,(10) Race 5, Nos., 1,10,12,16,(13) Race 6, Nos., 1,6,8,14,(5) Race 7, Nos., 1,3,5,11,(6) Race 8, Nos., 2,11,12,13,(1) Race 9, Nos., 5,6,8,9,(4)
------------- Euripides (c. 480-406 BC)
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Posted By: AndiCap
Date Posted: 16 Mar 2019 at 9:49am
Race 1, Nos., 5,2,1,9,(6) Race 2, Nos.,2,7,4,8,(9) Race 3, Nos.,1,6,2,12, (8) Race 4, Nos.,9,2,1,10 ,(13) Race 5, Nos., 7,2,14,16,(12) Race 6, Nos.,14,12,9, 6,(15) Race 7, Nos.,1,3,2,16 ,(9) Race 8, Nos.,15,2,13,12,(1) Race 9, Nos.,5,4,9,13 ,(11)
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Posted By: Dizzy
Date Posted: 16 Mar 2019 at 10:46am
Race 1, Nos.,1,3,5,10, (8)
Race 2, Nos.,1,5,7,8, (2)
Race 3, Nos.,1,2,7,12, (6)
Race 4, Nos.,2,4,8,9, (1)
Race 5, Nos.,1,7,14,17, (13)
Race 6, Nos.,5,7,12,13, (8)
Race 7, Nos.,1,3,9,13, (7)
Race 8, Nos.,1,4,11,13, (14)
Race 9, Nos.,4,5,8,9,
(13)
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Posted By: Vixen
Date Posted: 16 Mar 2019 at 11:24am
Race 1 Nos.,
10,5,3,1,(8)
Race 2 Nos., 7,8,5,1,(4)
Race 3 Nos., 2,7,6,12,(1)
Race 4 Nos., 4,8,9,2,(11)
Race 5 Nos., 7,1,14,13, (17)
Race 6 Nos., 7,14,6,12,(5)
Race 7 Nos., 3,1,13,2,(7)
Race 8 Nos., 11,13,1,2,(12)
Race 9 Nos., 5,9,4,12,(8)
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Posted By: stayer
Date Posted: 16 Mar 2019 at 12:02pm
Race 1 nos., 1,2,5,10 (4) Race 2 nos., 1,4,7,8 (5) Race 3 nos., 2,6,7,11 (1) Race 4 nos., 4,7,8,9 (13) Race 5 nos., 2,7,10,14 (9) Race 6 nos., 7,9,12,14 (5) Race 7 nos., 2,3,7,13 (5) Race 8 nos., 2,4,11,13 (1) Race 9 nos., 4,5,9,13 (6)
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Posted By: Whale
Date Posted: 16 Mar 2019 at 1:02pm
Lol no 6 keeps winning the first and everybody is out
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Posted By: VOYAGER
Date Posted: 16 Mar 2019 at 3:32pm
You must have missed your morning tablet, Whale because I had the 6!
------------- Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Posted By: VOYAGER
Date Posted: 16 Mar 2019 at 4:08pm
AndiCap is killing it
Hope he is alive in that Big 7 from racing.com!
------------- Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Posted By: Whale
Date Posted: 16 Mar 2019 at 6:24pm
VOYAGER wrote:
You must have missed your morning tablet, Whale because I had the 6! |
Sorry, so easy to miss. Well done, 6 must be your lucky no
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Posted By: VOYAGER
Date Posted: 16 Mar 2019 at 8:23pm
Here we go with the results.
Three players got 7 of the nine winner, so congrats to AndiCap, Tiger and Vixen!
This week.
AndiCap = +$211 Voyager = +$127 Tiger = +$ 70 Vixen = -$ 3 Dizzy = -$85 Euripedes= -$115 Sister Dot = $117 Stayer = -$173
Overall.
Voyager = +$629 AndiCap = +$207 Tiger = +$203 Maccamax= +$199 Vixen = +$ 90 Stayer = +$ 22 Euripedes= +$20 Sister Dot = -$139 Dillwar = -$201 Xavier = -$213 Dizzy = -$304
------------- Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Posted By: Carioca
Date Posted: 16 Mar 2019 at 8:42pm
Very good picking you 3.
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Posted By: Mayor
Date Posted: 17 Mar 2019 at 8:36am
Well done to the winners. And thanks Voyager!
My biggest regrets yesterday was not having Dixie Blossoms $22 (I usually pick her) and Swift Sis $18 who I picked last time at $31. Oh well... there's always next week.
------------- Mayor
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Posted By: TIGER
Date Posted: 17 Mar 2019 at 12:00pm
Voyager is on fire and a nice profit to boot
------------- EAD
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