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NRL 2021

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ExceedAndExcel View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ExceedAndExcel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Mar 2021 at 8:18am
Great preview Voyager! Thumbs Up
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rhino Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Mar 2021 at 8:53am
Great preview Voyager. I note you rate the Raiders highly. I was lucky enough to tour their new performance centre a few weeks back. It is outstanding, making lack of preparation no concern. However, I just think their roster is a couple of quality players short for mine. Think they just scrape into the top 8. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Mar 2021 at 7:11pm
I agree Rhino, but I think that if Hodgson can stay on the field and the English half can improve off his good season, then they can at least get into the grand final.

I concede that the couple of stars that are missing are John Bateman (gone back to England) and Nick Cotric (over to the Bulldogs), but we have a good forward rotation and as long as Hodgson is healthy they have a good spine. 

I still think they are as a team better overall than say Parramatta, who have a number of players who can look like champions one week and then reserve graders the next. That is why they find the finals hard, because they can not win four games in a row when the pressure is on. At least you know the Raiders will show up every week, and you have to beat them as they will not give you cheap points.     
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rhino Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Mar 2021 at 10:09am
Bateman and Cotric are a big lose, and yes I'm a massive Hodgson fan. I really think the key to the Raiders (like most teams) is keeping their spine healthy. They are strong in that area and if Wighton fires they will have a good year. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shrunk in the Wash Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Mar 2021 at 10:18am
Anyone here play supercoach or Fantasy?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ExceedAndExcel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Mar 2021 at 4:00pm
Season starts on Thursday night and as expected there’s a few bookie promos worth taking advantage of. So here’s a quick update of what I have seen so far:


Sportsbet – Head to head market – get paid out as a winner if your team scores a try in the first 5 minutes. First $250 staked. 

 

This is marginally profitable. More so if you have access to two accounts and can cover both teams with the promo. The edge here is when your team scores in the first 5 but goes on to lose the game. This occurred in 19 out of 169 games (11.25%) last year and likely to be similar again this year with the 6-again rule still in play. There will be long runs of outs if backing both teams but this is the way to play it. Consider combining this with the Pointsbet promo below.

 

Pointsbet – head to head market – get paid out as a winner if your team leads by 4+ at half time. First $150 staked.

 

This promo has been around in a couple of different forms across a few different books in past seasons and it is a decent winner. Again, the edge in this promo is when you get paid out at half time and your team goes on to lose. My stats show that with a lead by 4+ payout, this occurs just over 15% of the time. Bet the underdogs here and then back the favourite to return the same amount with another book. You will lose a small amount when your team doesn’t lead then lose but will win much more than enough when it does occur. Only bet games where your effective odds at >20-1 (this will be most games).

 

NOTE: Pointsbet will promo ban you quickly. If you put through a lot of other action you may survive longer.

 

TAB – Thursday & Friday night games - Head to head market – win by 6 get double winnings in bonus bets up to $50.


Games are decided by 6 or more in around 75% of games so this is an obviously profitable play given these markets are framed around the 106% mark. Keep it simple and just back whatever team you like but only for a stake that gives a $50 profit. 


Other – I have alluded to something else previously but will not be discussing it publicly. It is simply too good to have it out there well known. If anyone has some idea and could be bothered sending me a private message I MAY discuss there but really, this really is the golden goose and the less people know about it the better. Quite frankly I can’t believe it is still available.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ExceedAndExcel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Mar 2021 at 11:02am
Originally posted by ExceedAndExcel ExceedAndExcel wrote:

Season starts on Thursday night and as expected there’s a few bookie promos worth taking advantage of. So here’s a quick update of what I have seen so far:


Sportsbet – Head to head market – get paid out as a winner if your team scores a try in the first 5 minutes. First $250 staked. 

 

This is marginally profitable. More so if you have access to two accounts and can cover both teams with the promo. The edge here is when your team scores in the first 5 but goes on to lose the game. This occurred in 19 out of 169 games (11.25%) last year and likely to be similar again this year with the 6-again rule still in play. There will be long runs of outs if backing both teams but this is the way to play it. Consider combining this with the Pointsbet promo below.

 

Pointsbet – head to head market – get paid out as a winner if your team leads by 4+ at half time. First $150 staked.

 

This promo has been around in a couple of different forms across a few different books in past seasons and it is a decent winner. Again, the edge in this promo is when you get paid out at half time and your team goes on to lose. My stats show that with a lead by 4+ payout, this occurs just over 15% of the time. Bet the underdogs here and then back the favourite to return the same amount with another book. You will lose a small amount when your team doesn’t lead then lose but will win much more than enough when it does occur. Only bet games where your effective odds at >20-1 (this will be most games).

 

NOTE: Pointsbet will promo ban you quickly. If you put through a lot of other action you may survive longer.

 

TAB – Thursday & Friday night games - Head to head market – win by 6 get double winnings in bonus bets up to $50.


Games are decided by 6 or more in around 75% of games so this is an obviously profitable play given these markets are framed around the 106% mark. Keep it simple and just back whatever team you like but only for a stake that gives a $50 profit. 


Other – I have alluded to something else previously but will not be discussing it publicly. It is simply too good to have it out there well known. If anyone has some idea and could be bothered sending me a private message I MAY discuss there but really, this really is the golden goose and the less people know about it the better. Quite frankly I can’t believe it is still available.




Bet365 - head to head market - get paid out if your team leads by 16+ - no max stake that I can see. 

This one came through this morning and they really shouldn’t have bothered. It’s just marketing spin and basically worthless. It will help you lose less on the race occasion when you get paid out and your team ends up losing. Basically don’t bother except maybe if you are combining it with another promo elsewhere. Don’t expect much.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ExceedAndExcel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Mar 2021 at 2:43pm
So Cameron Smith finally announced his retirement earlier today. One part of me says “about time” while another thinks he should have NEVER announced it. Would have perhaps left a kind of mythical aura over him for the rest of his days. He’s not retired, he just doesn’t play anymore. 

In any event, well done to him on an incredible career!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Mar 2021 at 2:47pm
Wasn't in a hurry, was he.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Mar 2021 at 5:37pm
And in the meantime, more of the same.  At least he didn't allegedly bite a woman on the vulva.  Shocked

Injured Sydney Roosters star Victor Radley has been given a suspended $20,000 fine and a two-match ban following his involvement in an incident in Byron Bay last December.  The NRL determined Radley breached the game's code of conduct after tackling a person in a street on the evening of December 30, reportedly outside a house party.

As well as the ban, which is academic given the 22-year-old is still recovering from an knee injury sustained last season, Radley has been given a $20,000 fine, 50 per cent of which is suspended for 12 months.

The back rower will also have to undertake an appropriate education and training course, with the NRL saying the penalty reflected his conduct as well as his failure to report the incident.  The NRL said Radley had accepted the breach notice and apologised for his actions.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Mar 2021 at 11:03pm
Okay lets see where our ratings have landed for round one, always remembering that upsets are going to happen the first month of a competition.

Thursday
 
Melbourne vs South Sydney. Both teams have basically their best sides going around. Maybe Melbourne will rework their backline, but I unless a youngster comes through Jennings and Smith should hold their spots for the season. Bet = Melbourne to win @$1.95.

Friday

Brisbane vs Parramatta. Can not see a upset here. The Eels are fielding their best, with Jennings out and no better option at this time for his center position. Brisbane have Kitoni Staggs and Payne Haas out so for me this will be a huge win for the Blue and Gold. Bet = Parramatta giving 8.5 start @$1.90.

Newcastle vs Canterbury. Newcastle are vulnerable here, and this is one match which I think will see an upset. Newcastle are already not that great with their top seventeen, but with both Kayln Ponga and Lachlan Fitzgibbon missing that talent drops markedly. The Bulldogs will be set for a match which they will look at and giove themselves a hope in. If they can limit the unforced errors and give Corey Allan, Nick Cotric and Zelezniak oppotunities, then they can score the win. Of course they have Luke Thompson out but they can cover that. Bet = Canterbury with 5.5 points start @$1.90

New Zealand vs Gold Coast. Here is our other upset. I am seeing Gold Coast being priced on hype. I think it will take a few rounds for the team to play well with the new recruits. I see that the coach has selected Corey Thompson in front of Phillip Sami who is coming off a great origin series. No knock on Thompson, I actually think he is a very good player, but that might be a downgrade for me. And I also see Ese'ese, is not on the interchange so the coach is going with the forwards from the end of last season and making him work his way into the team. With the Warriors just about at full strength and the motivation to get their captains last season off to a good start, I can sense the upset coming. Bet = New Zealand getting 3.5 start @$1.90.

Sydney Roosters vs Manly. I think Manly will get close, but the Roosters should begin this campaign on a winning note. I need to see how Lachlan Lam is playing and how he will be used, and no Victor Radley, gives Manly some hope. Bet = Roosters to win @$1.29

Penrith vs North Queensland. No joy here for Cowboys fans. While the Panthers have lost Tamou and Mansour the young developing players who have stepped in are good first graders, with potential to improve. The Cowboys still have Drinkwater at fullback, when Tabui Fidow needs to gets into the game as much as possible. The Cowboys might stay with the Panthers for 60 minutes but the last quarter of the match will be tough. Bet = Penrith giving 9.5 start @$1.90

Canberra vs Wests Tigers. Canberra can be slow starters to a competition and the Tigers will be wanting to show the comp they can mix it with the better teams. No Croker for the Raiders and of course Cotric and Bateman are no longer there so this will be a good test for them early on. Bet = Canberra to win @$1.29. The Tigers may cover the 9.5 start @$1.90.

StGeorge Illawarra vs Cronulla. I was all set to make Cronulla a good bet here, but no Johnson and maybe no Fifita. The young forwards need to have come on and help Woods and Graham, and it would help if Moylan and Dugan got their finger out. With no Norman and the team needing to find their rhythym with new recruits, the Dragons will need a miracle. Bet = Cronulla to win @$1.65.

         
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Mar 2021 at 11:42pm
I expect the Cowboys to improve this season. I like the way Payten is shaping, new broom sweeps clean, I am not sure Green was as good as two GF appearances suggest, I would put that more down to the human dynamo Thurston, one of the all time great players and leaders.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Mar 2021 at 9:43am
Melbourne without Cameron Smith - how will it go? I hope the 2008 Grand Final is not a pointer. Confused

Slater + Folau + Inglis + Cronk - Smith = -40
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Baghdad Bob Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Mar 2021 at 12:03pm
2008 that was only 13 years ago Wink
Those players have now come and gone, do not be concerned, as in all sports a new generation comes along. Papenhuyzen, Munster, Addo-Carr, Hughes, Welch, Smith , Grant etc will still have Storm up there vying for another premiership. One bookie has them $6.00 to win this year, only $1.00 less than the favourites Penrith.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Mar 2021 at 8:48am
Storm looked great for the 15 minutes I watched. Game was over then so I watched something else. Souths looked like a slow motion version of rugby league.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Baghdad Bob Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Mar 2021 at 9:02am
Barring inevitable injuries with Grant and Finucane back into last night’s team Storm will prove a team to beat for the premiership.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Mar 2021 at 9:10am
As they say Bob, one swallow does not make a summer.

Long season ahead. They will have  to get Brandon Smith to play 80 minutes as his predecessor did?  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Mar 2021 at 9:28am
Souths ran through the Storm outside backline pretty easily after they worked out how vulnerable they were. Vunivalu a big loss I think.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rhino Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Mar 2021 at 10:04am
What was clear to me last night is that Melbourne will need Harry Grant at 9 asap. The service out of dummy half was ordinary in the back half of the game, which led to many mistakes. Souths will be up there in the top 4. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote TJMitchell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Mar 2021 at 10:51am
Harry Grant back is a must. Ryan Pap will be the leagues top scorer this year. That first half from Storm was electric. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote TIGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Mar 2021 at 10:59am
Originally posted by Passing Through Passing Through wrote:

As they say Bob, one swallow does not make a summer.

Long season ahead. They will have  to get Brandon Smith to play 80 minutes as his predecessor did?  
With Harry Grant coming back, Smith will play more of a lock role and cover Grant when he goes off after 60

Melbourne just keep producing the goods year after year
EAD
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Mar 2021 at 11:31am
I was under the impression Brandon Smith stayed at Storm on the understanding he was to be no 9, a job he has waited 2 years for.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote TJMitchell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Mar 2021 at 11:44am
Bellamy said Grant would have started if not for the injury. Smith has 3 weeks to show he deserves the spot.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Mar 2021 at 11:49am
Remarkable to think you were taking evens Souths, when their record in Melbourne is abysmal
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote TJMitchell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Mar 2021 at 11:52am
Storm hasn't lost in round 1 for (checks notes) 300 years
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Mar 2021 at 12:00pm
Shouldn't count all the years they were caught cheating the salary cap. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote TJMitchell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Mar 2021 at 12:08pm
Still didn't lose the game

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Mar 2021 at 12:10pm
Won with an illegally obtained advantage.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote TJMitchell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Mar 2021 at 12:15pm
That's not losing
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Mar 2021 at 12:15pm
Melbourne seems to have a "shock troops" strategy of using their speed men, some of the fastest in the game, to rack up early points and put the opposition off-balance. By the time Souths re-grouped, they were too far behind.
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