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New Pandemic - Covid Malaise ! |
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Carioca
Champion Joined: 13 Nov 2015 Status: Offline Points: 21820 |
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[QUOTE=Carioca]Even England employing workers from Nepal and Tajikshan to do the veg and fruit picking .[/QUOTE
Tajhikstan * whatever .
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Kimberley Mine
Champion Joined: 01 Oct 2013 Status: Offline Points: 1517 |
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You're absolutely correct in that workers have additional power and arbitrage now relative to where they were 2 1/2 years ago before the plague.
Nope. You're still missing the reason WHY workers have that power and arbitrage: supply and demand. The demand for workers is the same. The supply of workers has contracted by somewhere between 8-10% in Australia as a direct result of the pandemic.
This is the correct interpretation of the data. Globally, the excess deaths due to the SARS-COV-2 pandemic is about 20 million people...or about 1 out of every 500 humans living on the planet has died of Covid/aftereffects of Covid/inability to get medical care due to Covid breaking hospital systems. People are not taking bad jobs that pay worse wages anymore, and it's not because they don't want to work. They're not taking those jobs because there are better-paying jobs with better working conditions available, and they are making the rational decision to take the better paying jobs. The people who would have taken the low-wage, bad-working-conditions jobs before the pandemic have been forced out of the paid workforce by situations beyond their control. Australia is no different. If you read any of the articles I linked, they all describe Australia who want to be in the paid workforce, but because they can't afford to pay for care work for kids or elders or sick family members, or they're too sick to work themselves, or they're burnt out and having mental health crises (which is a physical health crisis, because the brain is an organ), they are unable to continue to participate in the paid workforce. The One Tasmania of young temporary migrants who are no longer in the Australian workforce, the ones who would be out picking fruit or other agricultural work, are not sitting on the couch because they don't want to work...they are not in the Australian workforce because they are literally not allowed to come into Australia. Young Australian residents in the gap-year age bracket (17-23), which are a small cohort to begin with, aren't going to be picking fruit during gap years at the moment, either. Most likely they will be in post-secondary education, uni, or apprenticeships. So you can't say, well, they don't want to work, not when they have their noses in their textbooks at uni. Even if you read pearl-clutching puff piece articles like this one: https://www.marieclaire.com.au/women-leaving-jobs-covid , the true reasons why people are leaving are buried in there, and it's not because "they don't want to work." From the article: '“There were no vaccines at that point,” she says. “I have an elderly father who’s ill. It just felt really uncomfortable.” She asked for a meeting with her manager to see if she could continue working from home but she says the company was “very resistant”.' The woman in the article didn't leave the paid workforce because she wanted to sit naked on her couch eating bonbons and collecting government paycheques. She left the paid workforce because she was doing care work for a frail elderly family member. When she asked her boss for a workplace accommodation so that she could do her paid work and do care work of her sick father, her boss said no. She was willing to continue working for a wage! And yet, the article is framed as "she didn't want to work." It's outright journalistic malfeasance that people like her doing unpaid care work are painted as "oh, they don't want to do work" when they were being pushed out of the paid workforce. Oh, and take an extra 10 points away from Slytherin for framing this as "Millenials are doing..." when most Millenials in Australia are between 28-40 years of age, meaning they're at the age where they're most likely to have young children living at home. |
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Kimberley Mine
Champion Joined: 01 Oct 2013 Status: Offline Points: 1517 |
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These industries have highly gendered workforces -- before the plague, they were mostly staffed by women, who took these jobs because they could schedule their hours around child care work. Now that women have disproportionately been pushed out of the workforce to do unpaid care work, these industries are not finding new workers to take their places. This is happening in every OECD nation:
The parts of the airline industry that pre-pandemic were dominated by women (such as check-in desk or customer service) are having to cope with their women leaving to take care of kids. As for the rest of the industry: airline pilots, mechanics, and flight attendants have specific training requirements and need flight hours/training hours before they can get on the plane to work. When the world shut down, large numbers of air crew staff were furloughed...meaning that now that people want to fly again, they have to go through lengthy training and recertification processes. It takes time to recertify people, meaning that the pilot pool is smaller because people are in training. It's impossible to look at why airlines are so messed up at the moment without looking at the effect of mass Omicron infection on flight crews: "The quarterly report, released today, shows the domestic airline industry suffered another setback from late-December 2021 as the Omicron wave swept the country. Scheduled capacity reached 95 per cent of pre-pandemic levels in the week of Christmas, but within days airlines were forced to cancel hundreds of flights as passengers and airline staff went into isolation." |
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furious
Champion Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Status: Offline Points: 25165 |
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Sorry KM should of known your were a her not a he!
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oneonesit
Champion Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Online Points: 37145 |
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Kimberley not sure about the figures you are quoting. I think your hypothesis that the world is running out of people because of Covid deaths is a touch wide of the mark. The worlds population continues to grow - Year ending June 19 - 1.1% growth - June 20 - 1.0 % & to June 21 - 1.03%. I would suggest for the past 3 years their is no real statistical difference in annual global growth rates. Fact is whilst Covid has killed a lot of people world wide - other major causes like influenza are way day. As were road deaths ect.
As for Australia - our population growth has slowed down - but was still in growth. June 2020 1.7% - and through to the latest info to Sept 2021 0.3%. You do realise there is government support for Covid sufferers AND THEIR CARERS don't you ? Refer attached. I'm not suggesting their should not be - however it needs to be noted. Don't you think this could be contributing to absenteeism in the workplace ? Throw in the Essential Service Public Servants who refuse to get vaccinated - & who remain on full pay - can you not see their are opportunities for people not to go to work ? As i said - i accept some of your reasoning re backpackers / those leaving the country (which by the way means those countries are gaining numbers - its not one way) - think you need to take the blinkers & realise some of our shortages could well be due to opportunism.
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oneonesit
Champion Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Online Points: 37145 |
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oneonesit
Champion Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Online Points: 37145 |
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Another reason that people have tossed their jobs is that the Disposable Personal Income for Households reached an all time record in the first quarter 2022. In other words, households are cashed up after saving their bickies. Hard to believe i know - sort of goes against the vibe of everyone doing it tough. This will change of course - which brings me back to the "necessity" comment earlier.
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furious
Champion Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Status: Offline Points: 25165 |
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Oneone no household is stopping work because they are cashed up. THey cashed up because they knew that sometime soon the interest rate would go up and it has. I know mine got back to work as soon as they could. Bills to pay etc etc etc.
Why are you so unbelieving in people. Listen to another station or something. Talk to someone outside your neighbourhood. Look at what is going on around you. People are doing their best to stay above water and that means not taking part time work for little pay unless that is the only way they can juggle family and getting some work.
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Tlazolteotl
Champion Joined: 02 Oct 2012 Location: Elephant Butte Status: Offline Points: 31416 |
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"Essential Service Public Servants who refuse to get vaccinated - & who remain on full pay" Really? Smells like hogwash. How many of them are there? What do you need to do to get on that deal? |
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Second Chance
Champion Joined: 02 Dec 2007 Status: Online Points: 45704 |
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You are so far out of touch with reality.
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oneonesit
Champion Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Online Points: 37145 |
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https://www.news.com.au/national/unvaxxed-teachers-on-full-pay-remain-on-gardening-leave-despite-vaccine-mandate-ending/news-story/d32b9e7c624833b2e78fdfcd9734e240
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oneonesit
Champion Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Online Points: 37145 |
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oneonesit
Champion Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Online Points: 37145 |
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oneonesit
Champion Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Online Points: 37145 |
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Kimberley Mine
Champion Joined: 01 Oct 2013 Status: Offline Points: 1517 |
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Again, you're completely missing the point. Giving the death toll of Covid wasn't to argue that the world population is shrinking -- it was meant to demonstrate just HOW disruptive this disease outbreak has been, in every country on the planet, in every industry. One out of every 500 humans on the planet dead of a virus that didn't exist two and a half years ago is incredibly disruptive. The actions that every country and every society took to keep the death toll to "only" one out of every 500 people on earth, and not more, were incredibly disruptive. You can't compare life after Covid to life before Covid. That includes assessment of labour market conditions and why there has been such a huge contraction in the Australian labour market.
Let me make sure I understand you. You're arguing that people who have left the paid workforce (short term or long term) to do unpaid care work, and who are getting subsidies from the government to do unpaid care work so that they don't starve or lose their homes....don't want to work? This is exactly what I mean when I say, just because someone isn't working outside the home for a wage doesn't mean they aren't working/don't want to work. CARE WORK IS WORK.
I absolutely agree that some people will be opportunistic and are avoiding going back into the paid workforce because they have subsidies, because there will always be some humans like that. I disagree with the hypothesis that there are so many opportunistic people that it's a major contributing factor as to why the workforce has shrunk by one whole Adelaide in 2 years, and I disagree with that hypothesis because that's not what the data says. I also point out that in other jurisdictions where extended Covid relief subsidies were thought to be incentivising people to not participate in the paid workforce (e.g., the USA), the actual data did not support that hypothesis. https://econofact.org/have-enhanced-unemployment-benefits-discouraged-work If you can provide some sources and numbers of people in Australia who "don't want to work" that are anywhere comparable to the one whole Adelaide who are either not allowed in the country, are now disabled/ill and they weren't pre-pandemic, are doing care work, have retired, or who are doing recertification training to come back from a 2-years-long furlough, I'm all ears. If you can show me data about how the unemployment rate of 3.9% (per ABS statistics https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia/latest-release), which is the lowest unemployment rate since 1974, translates to "people not wanting to work," I would love to see it. For that matter, if you can show me how the employment-to-population rate of 64% (that means all Australians, including children, pensioners, and full-time students as well as people working for a wage) translates to "people not wanting to work," I definitely am interested. If you can show me that the specific industries that have been affected most by the labour supply shock -- the ones staffed pre-pandemic by low-wage immigrant labour or by mostly-women in low-wage, hourly positions -- are suffering because the people who would take those jobs are otherwise sitting on the couch eating crisps instead of, you know, being still in England or wiping snotty noses and dirty bottoms, I'm all ears. Otherwise, you're asserting something that "feels like it should be true," but doesn't match with any of the available data. |
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oneonesit
Champion Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Online Points: 37145 |
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I'm hardly missing the point - I started the thread to generate discussion
Of course Covid has been "disruptive" - no need to provide a squillion references to get that point across. 2 year plus global pandemics have a habit of doing that. We have a contracted workforce. We agree on certain aspects as to why that is the case - backpackers reduced coming in / newer Aussies going "home" = less labour available. And yes - those suffering from Covid (& long Covid) AND those caring for them will add to that number. I just question if that's the full story. Forget all your statistics & research papers & answer this. Have you not seen a change in mindset re work commitment amongst your family, friends or in the general community ? Have you maybe even had a change your self ? I know I have - retired 2 years earlier than planned (June last year). I've seen it in my son-in law running his own business - the spark has gone out. I've seen it in my 2 kids working full-time from their homes. They are doing their long-term jobs - just not the same commitment. I think a lot of people have had a mindset change over the past few years of lockdown & perceived poor treatment from employers. Yet the crazy thing is - the first quarter of this year we had the highest disposable income per household ever in Australia. To do that 2 things has to happen - people spent less - whilst a healthy income remained. Then we throw in the actual Covid / Covid caring prospect that happens to have government support - how quick are you going to be rushing back to work ? All that is a "perfect storm" for a contracting workforce. I read up a bit on the Spanish Flu & its aftermath. Yes the labour market contracted. The good news to was also short-lived. Kimberley we are sort of agreeing - just different emphasis I think. Unfortunately i am unlikely to find a research paper on "Covid Malaise" unless I pen one myself. Might even get JJ to help me (last resort)
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oneonesit
Champion Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Online Points: 37145 |
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Actually there are a few areas where the above doesn't apply. There has been absolutely NO change in work mindset around PT's Byron Bay area
They've never wanted to work
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furious
Champion Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Status: Offline Points: 25165 |
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Gee Oneone I see it from my family too. Son in Law has dived back into his business. Yes they lost some of their tents to covid destruction on property by protesters. THey had them out for the test sites to get some income in. Yes they had trouble getting people back to work as it is a low paid industry but he just got on with the job and worked through the issues.
Daughter got back to tour guiding as soon as she could. Long hours and little sleep but she loves showing people the blue mountains and is a good guide. I've always worked from home and yes there are challenges. You have to be self motivated and you have to not mind the quiet. Sometime I regret not being in an office but on cold winter mornings I feel litte regret. I'm down to about 2 hours a day so easy now to get the hours done anyway. I do remember times in the past when I had to work late into the night so working at home helped there. People are tired. I bit wanting to see new horizons and that could lead to looking for new jobs etc. I'm good at what I do so it will see me out to retirement I hope.
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oneonesit
Champion Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Online Points: 37145 |
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I see the unvaccinated teachers are finally being welcomed back with open arms. I'm sure they will be motivated to getting the little kiddies back on track
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oneonesit
Champion Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Online Points: 37145 |
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& I don't even think they have to hang a sign around their necks
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Tlazolteotl
Champion Joined: 02 Oct 2012 Location: Elephant Butte Status: Offline Points: 31416 |
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Are there any unvaccinated teachers without medical exemptions still being paid in NSW? The department uses the word "dismissed" which in my plain English means sacked, terminated, no more money, but who knows what they mean. |
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oneonesit
Champion Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Online Points: 37145 |
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The "6th June" - a few weeks back
How about Victoria ?
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Passing Through
Champion Joined: 09 Jan 2013 Location: At home Status: Offline Points: 79532 |
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Unvaccinated NSW teachers have also been invited back to work.
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jujuno
Champion Joined: 25 Jan 2010 Location: Coasting Status: Offline Points: 36416 |
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I ran two businesses from home, years ago. Worked an eighteen-hour day...seven days a week, bar the odd excursion to see Souths play...or have a game of midweek golf. Had to reduce my work hours when I had children, and was so used to those long hours it took some time to readjust. You not only have to be self-motivated, you have to be disciplined. Rolled out of bed at six, back into bed at midnight ...or even two o'clock if I took time off during the day. I still survive on five hours sleep. I hear young people whinging about an eight hour day. They don't know what work really means. |
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Desert War, Rain Lover, Latin Knight, Hay List, Mustard...my turf heroes...
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Kimberley Mine
Champion Joined: 01 Oct 2013 Status: Offline Points: 1517 |
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Not at all. I suspect a lot of that has to do with the fact that you're retired now and I'm at least 20 years away from that point. My peers and I are in the age cohorts where we're starting to do care work for our parents as well as for our kids. It's work whether I'm getting paid to do it or not (and that's why I'm so twitchy about people who don't treat care work like it's work). The note on the house isn't going to pay for itself, the rates for water and power and all that aren't going to pay for themselves, I would like to retire someday so I am trying to save for the future, and most of my peers are in exactly the same position. What I have seen is people quitting bad jobs to take better paying ones, people quitting bad bosses to go work for better bosses, and people who have quit working for someone else and started their own business. But they're all still working and all still busting their chops just as hard. I'm glad that you got to retire and spend some time relaxing...enjoy it.
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oneonesit
Champion Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Online Points: 37145 |
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Thanks Kimberley
I will clarify that i am only semi-retired. I have a small (20%) share in a start up business with a mate. Really enjoying the challenges - totally different to my Retail / Manufacturing background We are importing artificial grass - primarily for the trade. Do have a few contract teams who do some installing as well. Hasn't been easy - lockdowns & then the wet spell. Funny you don't here much about how that period impacted the economy - however from what we saw the trades guys working outside generated bugger all for about 3 MThs. Latest problem has been getting stock out of Shanghai (Covid shutdown) - just receiving a 40 ft container early next week. 14 weeks supply line vs standard 7 wks.
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Carioca
Champion Joined: 13 Nov 2015 Status: Offline Points: 21820 |
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Don't employ any Irish then , remember , green side up .
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oneonesit
Champion Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Online Points: 37145 |
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Tlazolteotl
Champion Joined: 02 Oct 2012 Location: Elephant Butte Status: Offline Points: 31416 |
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If you've got NSW Dine and Discover vouchers left you won't be using you can donate them here. |
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An honest politician is one who when he is bought will stay bought.
Simon Cameron |
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oneonesit
Champion Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Online Points: 37145 |
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Nice work Tiaz.
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