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Kings Will Dream |
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Lord Hybrow
Champion Joined: 05 Jul 2015 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 6683 |
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Just a gut feeling but I’d be worried if Gad already backed him in the Caulfield Cup.
Is he going too well, too early in his campaign at 1400m to still be at his top come late October in a Caulfield Cup over 2400m? And if he stands up as a genuine WFA contender in his next few starts, do connections shift their focus to a Cox Plate? |
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JudgeHolden
Champion Joined: 16 Apr 2011 Status: Offline Points: 11729 |
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Thinking the same thing. Going to be very hard to beat in the Makybe, Underwood etc, it the CC is away away. No spoil the odds right now.
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Tlazolteotl
Champion Joined: 02 Oct 2012 Location: Elephant Butte Status: Offline Points: 31448 |
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What? You'd have to be off your rocker to switch from CC to Cox.
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Shawy38
Champion Joined: 13 Jun 2015 Status: Offline Points: 17415 |
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He won’t get near Winx. They would be mad if they changed their minds.
Stick to the plan. |
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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If we had proper handicapping this horses performances so far this winter spring would be pushing his handicap through the roof.
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reductio ad absurdum
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Miami
Champion Joined: 12 Aug 2018 Status: Offline Points: 358 |
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Weir won't bother sending anything to the Cox Plate unless they require the fitness.
Looks like Humidor is being steered down a different path.
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Shrunk in the Wash
Champion Joined: 25 Mar 2016 Status: Offline Points: 9890 |
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Surely Humidor goes to the Cox Plate
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VOYAGER
Champion Joined: 03 Aug 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 18737 |
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This horse is more than a stayer. He is like Jamekha in her four yer old spring. She was a wfa group 1 horse at 2000m or longer, but they had a plan to run the Caulfield Cup, and stuck to it, and reaped the rewards. She came back in the autumn and showed just how good she was in the BMW. This guy is right at her level. Underwood, into Turnbull and then Caulfield. NO COX PLATE!!!!!!!! |
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Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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JudgeHolden
Champion Joined: 16 Apr 2011 Status: Offline Points: 11729 |
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Here are the winners of the CC since 2000. Can't see many here who were running these sorts of slashing 1400m races in August, which is what I think LH is referring to. But based on what he's doing here, he looks poison odds in the Cup for mine.
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Mug-Punter
Champion Joined: 23 Feb 2014 Location: Central Coast Status: Offline Points: 1007 |
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I know nothing about breeding... what are his chances over 2 miles???
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The Mugg
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James0330
Champion Joined: 07 Apr 2010 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 2056 |
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Bred to be a gun over 1600-2400. Has enough in there to run 2miles but he looks too brilliant for that.
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ThreeBears
Champion Joined: 13 Apr 2017 Status: Offline Points: 2911 |
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It's a real mix on the dam side with two mile winners, jumpers and sprinters. Interestingly Luca Cumani has a 2yo half sister ( Stormy Road ) for OTI that won over a mile at her second start. She should stay a trip next year but her sire side makes it a little doubtful.
Sire side for KWD says beyond 2400m could be tricky.
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Sunline
Champion Joined: 01 Jul 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 22302 |
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It's the most versatile breeding I've seen. Sire and dam have sprinters and stayers.
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Sunline...simply supreme
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Dr E
Champion Joined: 05 Feb 2013 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 28563 |
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If he was mine, he would not be winning a race before the CC, unless it is penalty exempt!
Just wins that, then a crack at the MCup. No Cox Plate - happy to leave that till next year!
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In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8684 |
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[QUOTE=JudgeHolden] Here are the winners of the CC since 2000. Can't see many here who were running these sorts of slashing 1400m races in August, which is what I think LH is referring to. But based on what he's doing here, he looks poison odds in the Cup for mine. ETA to remove mess! In 1999 Sky Heights's campaign was: 2nd: G2 Liston Stakes (1400m wfa) 1st: G2 Craiglee Stakes (1600m wfa) 2nd: G1 Underwood Stakes (1800m wfa) 1st: G2 Turnbull Stakes (2000m swp) 1st: G1 Caulfield Cup (2400m hcp) Edited by Gay3 - 02 Sep 2018 at 12:10pm |
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Slammington
Champion Joined: 24 May 2007 Status: Offline Points: 328 |
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From memory Mongolian Khan, Viewed and Ethereal ran some pretty good races at 1400m the years they won the CC and the likes of Paris Lane going back a few years. Can anyone post their spring records?
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Slammington
Champion Joined: 24 May 2007 Status: Offline Points: 328 |
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Also Fawkner, elvstroem, Diatribe, northerly we’re running well over short trips early in their prep
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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Most Caulfield Cup winners ran well when kicked off over 1400m, they would ALL step up in trip for their next start.
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reductio ad absurdum
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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Sky Heights campaign was and is a typical Aussie campaign. Sydeston did similar. Most did similar.
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reductio ad absurdum
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Shawy38
Champion Joined: 13 Jun 2015 Status: Offline Points: 17415 |
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Jump onto Racing Australia and look it up |
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JudgeHolden
Champion Joined: 16 Apr 2011 Status: Offline Points: 11729 |
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KWD draws a better marble and/or has clear run and arguably wins. I thought the same thing about Hartnell a couple of years ago when everyone had him over the line in the MC- that is he was running TOO well over a shorter trip.
With the influx of imports/foreigners the Cups have changed in recent years, being won by more distance specialists. Not saying that KWD can’t win, but that he looks unders to me. And if he does win he’s a genuine star. |
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Carioca
Champion Joined: 13 Nov 2015 Status: Offline Points: 21836 |
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Stepping horses up gradually in preps. for races of this nature has been part of oz training for over a century, Bart done it all his life and good trainers before him, the restricted way trainers have to work their horses on racetracks with a multitude of others means their horses are a little more tense when horses work up their arse, not like the downs, we shouldn't change imo just don't fall into too much media hype with o/s preps, the ones that are not duds maintain or improve when landed here.
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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Not sure how much truth is in that ? Particularly "over a century" Plus it might have been fine when pur trainers where just playing amongst themselves, Australia is now open to the world. |
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reductio ad absurdum
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Carioca
Champion Joined: 13 Nov 2015 Status: Offline Points: 21836 |
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There's a lot of things you dis believe unless it's written in the racing post or some other racing pommy paper, but you may like to look up Nightmarch winner of the 29/ MC, it's all there his racing profile as with another fifty or so , horsesof the years, Tontanon's site. |
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Carioca
Champion Joined: 13 Nov 2015 Status: Offline Points: 21836 |
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Patrobis, Rogilla, Heroic, similar pattern all through the champs careers fwiw.
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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It does not particularly matter what they did or any example you throw up, We are in the big world now, We are not a insular racing nation anymore.
If we want to be competitive our trainers and their facilities are going to have to improve. For all your examples you can throw up horses that had unconventional campaigns as well.
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reductio ad absurdum
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ThreeBears
Champion Joined: 13 Apr 2017 Status: Offline Points: 2911 |
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Without having the race records to hand I think Ethereal ran first up over 1600m in NZ and ran third in her Cups double year.
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Carioca
Champion Joined: 13 Nov 2015 Status: Offline Points: 21836 |
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We don't have to change anything, if they want to come here ( and may well with carpenter inducements) that's their prerogative, there's everything here ( but no top ups this time) including huge prize money, good weather and good tracks , if they are not happy with that go to the US or stay home and freeze. |
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JudgeHolden
Champion Joined: 16 Apr 2011 Status: Offline Points: 11729 |
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Different horses are coming here. Horses like Dunaden, Americain and Protectionist wouldn’t have gotten warm over 1400m. The latter two were given to our trainers and given typical Aussie preps with predictable results.
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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Why cant our trainers no longer develop stayers ? Sure one or two come through the cracks but we have absolutely no depth in our staying ranks despite breeding ample stamina. |
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reductio ad absurdum
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