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John McNair. |
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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People can be quite amusing with the blind assessments of certain horses , without looking at some factual data ......
Hay List is as good a sprinter as we have seen in many years .
Without going into the times alone he has run which compare a lot better than Apache Cat ever produced .
I will leave you with the FACT = He cruised today and took .15 off the Flemington 1200 m [dead ] track record without raising a sweat in 1.8.20....Previous record had stood for 5 years.
Please tell us the best sprinters [ someone said he hasn't met ]......He would carry anything else we have going around over the sprint distances.
Hay list has won 12 from 14 .......He lost one when he pulled up lame and was spelled 3 months and when resuming on a slow track he met severe interference and was beaten .8 L to Love Conquers All.
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Morgan
Champion Joined: 21 Apr 2009 Status: Offline Points: 2487 |
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Put Nikolic on his back, he will find a way to get him beaten.
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I hope that when I die, people say about me, "Boy, that guy sure owed me a lot of money."
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correctweight
Champion Joined: 20 May 2010 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 2560 |
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Lol, that got more and more embarrassing as he said more things. |
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BamBam
Foal Joined: 12 Jul 2010 Status: Offline Points: 28 |
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and that is the problem macca. we have have nat showing his ignorance all to often on this site. he has bagged the trainer and run down the horse - although he likes it a lot, without any substance. just like pie face does.
he should be shutting up and listening rather tahn running around like he thinks he is bart cummings. makes one sick to read such ignorant comments. |
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Gee Gee
Champion Joined: 31 Aug 2009 Status: Offline Points: 8300 |
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Nathan
Champion Joined: 11 Dec 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 3343 |
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When have i potted the horse? I doesn't offend me, i just find McNair extremely arrogant. He didn't show one bit of respect to the opposition, he has a good horse yes, but he doesn't know what sort of horse Moody has in his yard either.
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Gee Gee
Champion Joined: 31 Aug 2009 Status: Offline Points: 8300 |
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yeah i didnt see, hear or read the interview of the trainer disrespecting rivals. but he can do it a t his own peril.
to be honest, i had never heard of this gun sprinter a few months ago, which also means in a few months time there possibly me another sprinter ready to knock this one off.
gotta love racing
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The Muffin Man
Champion Joined: 16 May 2007 Status: Offline Points: 6389 |
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Well I suppose now would be the time to use the phrase, ''winners are grinners and the rest can please themselves.'' Hay List really is just turning into one of those put in and take out jobs when you want to boost your betting funds by 60%. The horse was probably at the most vulnerable it will be for some time as it was looking at the straight for the first time, and the straight can throw up a few surprises as far as results go, but he did it with ease. I'm just glad he is a gelding and we will be able to watch him race well into old age, instead of him being shipped off to the breeding barn and robbing us of being able to watch his talent, as is the case with so many stallions. |
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"Well, I will never post again, if the Oz dollar doesnt go below 80 cents within the year 2012." - Occy22
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Nocturnal
Champion Joined: 26 Sep 2008 Location: at the 800 Status: Offline Points: 13667 |
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Nathan I rewatched today the interview you are referring to and i thought he simply has an opinion of his horses ability and when posed the question about him he answered honestly and forthright . Harsh marker i reckon
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The only problem with backing winners ? You never have enough on....
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Platinum
Champion Joined: 23 Oct 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 2064 |
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Wortel
Champion Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Location: Gold Coast Status: Offline Points: 17050 |
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Odds on punters have done well but no horse is good enough to back at those odds.
Put in take out job lol Bookies will clean you out if you go thinking that about anything.
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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.
. Everything has a price of probability...even to crossing the road safely.....
ALL successful gamblers depend on thier accuracy of being better at compiling those odds than the opposition ..[ fellow players ].
Sometimes the right odds of probability may be 100/1 .....Other times it is 1/10 or the 1/6 that you mentioned.
Get your pricing wrong and you will lose big time NO MATTER IF ITS 1/6 10/1 or 100/1.
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VPI
Champion Joined: 30 Dec 2009 Status: Offline Points: 4466 |
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The Muffin Man
Champion Joined: 16 May 2007 Status: Offline Points: 6389 |
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If you back a $1.60 favourite every time it races, you will lose money. If you confine selecting a $1.60 favourite to the occasions where you believe that barring an injury during the race, the horse has a next to no chance of losing, then you will win money. I did it with Denman last year and I've done it with Hay List as well. What's wrong with increasing your funds by 60% Wortel? I'd much rather be on a $1.60 winner than whatever someone's else has backed to beat it. But then again, I might have misunderstood the point of wagering, I thought it was to win money. Do you bet to lose money? How is that going for you? |
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"Well, I will never post again, if the Oz dollar doesnt go below 80 cents within the year 2012." - Occy22
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VOYAGER
Champion Joined: 04 Aug 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 18699 |
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I think everyone is missing a big point here with this horse.
When he beat Catapulted in the McEwen Kavanagh thought his horse was a special, he may not have won a group 1 yet but I think Catapulted is group 1 class.
It is just that Hay List is making him and other group 1 gallopers look silly at the moment.
That win yesterday was absolutely unbelievable. 1.08.2 is about the fourth fastest overall time ever on the course and he had no cover, the jockey had about 5 lengths up his sleeve and as has been stated he was backing up from a group 1 winning performance 9 days earlier.
No way is he as good as Miss Andretti, Apache Cat or definitely Takeover Target yet but he is on his way.
They say Kingston Town was beating nothing when he won his 18 group 1's but he is still considered the benchmark cahmpion of the modern era.
It does not matter who Hay List beats it is his own performance which makes him a champion or not, and at the moment he is a win away from moving into the category with Apache Cat and Miss Andretti.
Takeover Target is another level up but as I said he is on his way.
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Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Fairest One
Champion Joined: 24 Nov 2009 Location: Randwick Status: Offline Points: 2893 |
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Hahah always so much hate and jealousy abound these good horses.
Seeing Hay List, Hot Danish and Black Caviar giong at it down the straight will be one of my highlights in racing.
Enjoy the ride!
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Cmon Apparitions!!!
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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.
Hay List would beat Apache Cat over 1200 by 50 yards now ....
ON TIMES < He is running many lengths faster on a dead track than A.C. ever ran on good.
I also accept A.C wasn't a true 1200 m horse but cleaned up the spoils available .
The coming events will be easy for Hay List as everything will avoid him ....Not his fault.
He will beat Hot Danish as he pleases if they meet..
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Wortel
Champion Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Location: Gold Coast Status: Offline Points: 17050 |
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I don't bet odds on and I do very well for myself.
Perhaps you missed my tips of Precedence and Drumbeats. You don't need to pick something at odds on to be confident of getting a win. |
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jazzman
Champion Joined: 19 Dec 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 4758 |
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Not the first time I've seen McNair bagged on this forum, and I doubt it will be the last. After all, there are several posters on here who are so simple that they bag certain jockeys for having a vagina.
Give it a spell.
I don't know the bloke; but he does a top job training horses. The job he's done with Hay List has been brilliant, and what about Mustard?
This bloke can train, there's no doubt about that.
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Istidaad kicking strongly, he's 2 lengths clear, Crawl gets out from a well back and old Mustard is grinding home... Hang on, Treasury Notes gets out from the back and she'll blouse them all!
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The Muffin Man
Champion Joined: 16 May 2007 Status: Offline Points: 6389 |
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That was never your argument. If you think a horse is a 90% chance of winning a race you would have to be an idiot to bet against it even if it was $1.60 Like I said, I don't do it very often, but there is absolutely no need to try an re-invent the wheel and look for a winner in a field when the 90% chance is staring at you in the face. |
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"Well, I will never post again, if the Oz dollar doesnt go below 80 cents within the year 2012." - Occy22
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Nathan
Champion Joined: 11 Dec 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 3343 |
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It's the fact he was talking about a horse like Black Caviar that was doing everything he did a year ago, she was being talked up like him and although she's been out for a while but i certainly haven't forgotten about her.
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The Stallion
Champion Joined: 17 Feb 2010 Location: Sydney Status: Offline Points: 1019 |
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Pretty spot on. |
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That's the smell of victory, you can't wash that out.
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eighteentwelve
Foal Joined: 04 Oct 2010 Status: Offline Points: 14 |
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I'm extremeley pessimistic on this champion tag, Sunline was a champion, capable of making the hairs on the back of your neck stand on end. I seen Hay Lists run in the Manikato and was very impressed but his run down the straight at Flemington was magnificent, he was 'dog trotting' in second gear. To be truly great these types of horses need to do it year in year out. The 'Hustler' had a big 12 months but the day Light Fantastic beat him at Caulfield the alarm bells were ringing for me. With Haylist the very clever McNair will keep him fresh and barring incident (touch wood, I'd say he'd be the proverbial 'stick of dynamite')he will continue to sizzle. All Silent is very good but he isn't consistant. Black Cavier has had big problems and will therefore struggle to reach greatness. Hot danish may be a little less effective going Melbourne way. Hay list wins everything he runs in easily and he's sound so I reckon us pessimists will be lining up at 'Champions' in time to admire a genuine champion.
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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I love reading the statistics of racing .......Has been a real attraction of mine for well over half a century and I have spent good dollars to buy a lot of it .
The odds on question is a statistical must .... For example.....back all favourites you lose , back all last start winners you lose , back all last start winners within 14 days that are odds on you win ....{ 10 years of stats ]...not many bets using only the main 4 racing capitals .
There is just so many of these it makes the mind boggle.
George Moore had a lifetime win if you had a dollar on his every ride ... beat that....he must have been an honest man.....Bart Cummings has never had a favourite win / I'm joking Bart .....One did get up when you were on holidays ......Hope the elderly marvel is recovering from his recent setback ...We actually miss him .
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lotto7
Champion Joined: 14 Jan 2009 Status: Offline Points: 1138 |
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Voyager you are correct. Kav just shook his head in awe when Hay List beat Catapulted in the McEwen. Importantly he did so after having time to think about the race and not just an off the cuff comment. Kav knows how good Catapulted is and Hay List toyed with him. I think Kav is a far better judge than most on this forum. Hay List has since franked the form and provided he stays sound I can't see him being beaten this prep. |
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Phantom
Champion Joined: 17 Feb 2009 Location: At The Races! Status: Offline Points: 4786 |
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The More You Put On, The More You Get Back
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Phantom
Champion Joined: 17 Feb 2009 Location: At The Races! Status: Offline Points: 4786 |
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The More You Put On, The More You Get Back
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scamanda
Champion Joined: 11 Oct 2008 Location: The Manor Status: Offline Points: 16246 |
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I'm sure Moody hasn't missed the Hay List bandwagon. Black Caviar didn't line up against him last saturday for obvious reasons. No flies on Moody. At least in the Schillaci she only has to take on Mic Mac, First Command, Definately Ready, Star Witness and Solar Charged. Hay List would beat them in a trot. Black Caviar is lightly raced because she isn't as sound as the connections would like her to be. So I doubt she will ever face Hay List, let alone beat him. |
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I started with nothing and still have most of it left
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Coat Puller
Champion Joined: 20 Jun 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 624 |
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Black Caviar has won one Group 2 race. Please list these better horses she was beating. Here De Angels ?? Wanted perhaps?? That Newmarket was run on a strange day regards how the track played and lets not forget the weather.
IF they meet in the Patinack he will be hard fit she will most likely be second up ? Hay List's presence is already making some trainers reconsider there spring targets.
You will most certainly get better odds than you would have thought some 6 months ago but Black Caviar has been off the scene for good reason not holidaying in the Greek Isles.
IMHO McNair has every reason to be bullish and frightened of nobody.
Good post Macca
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Nathan
Champion Joined: 11 Dec 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 3343 |
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How does this thread go down now? She looks good, as does he of course. The Patinack, if they both turn up will be a race for the ages.
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