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Hitotsu

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Jamal View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jamal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Apr 2022 at 1:18pm
He won that Derby nicely.
Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Tlazolteotl View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Apr 2022 at 1:37pm
Originally posted by Jamal Jamal wrote:

Apparently Hitotsu is " 2 stone superior to Mohogany" 

Has that been confirmed? Any data?

Superior at what? 1000m? 1400m? 1600m? 2000m?
An honest politician is one who when he is bought will stay bought.

Simon Cameron

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Carioca Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Apr 2022 at 2:02pm
Originally posted by Afros Afros wrote:

Watching the replay it is clear to me that Alegron shifts across into Hitotsu's running line rather than Hitotsu impeding Alegron and also Hitotsu was clearly travelling better when they touched, as other suggested yesterday it would have been laughed out of the stewards room.

I really hope they give him a crack at history and go to the SA Derby next and if successful, the Qld Derby, he hasn't had a "traditional" AJC Derby prep, 3rd up into a Randwick/Australian Guineas and via either Roseghill race or the Alistair Clarke, he won't need runs in between, we likely won't see another in our time capable of winning the 4 G1 Derbies on offer in Australia, looks to good an opportunity to pass up.

Hopefully he races on in the spring and if the Cox Plate is the aim as has been said, hopefully he tackles it first or second up.  They could kick him off in either the Makybe Diva or Underwood Stakes, that would also keep the Caulfield Cup open instead of the Cox Plate if it shaped up as the better race for him.

" Laughed out of the room " Big smile Hughie's not stupid , why do you think the reason he went into the Stewards room to have a look at the head on vision before he weighed in ? sure Alegron drifted out and brushed Hitotsu , but that horse gave more than he copped and that's why J Allen was reprimanded , can't understand your idea of gallivanting around the country winning Derby's , how's Explosive Jack going ? and he's a gelding , Cox Plate the only race for this horse in the spring with a run beforehand in a 1400 WFA race maybe , Afros maybe I see things diferrence to you , but this is only my opinion . cheers .
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Apr 2022 at 2:57pm
Explosive Jack has gone backwards  because they gelded him. He won his Derbies as a colt and that was his reward. 
reductio ad absurdum
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Jamal View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jamal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Apr 2022 at 3:08pm
Originally posted by Tlazolteotl Tlazolteotl wrote:

Originally posted by Jamal Jamal wrote:

Apparently Hitotsu is " 2 stone superior to Mohogany" 

Has that been confirmed? Any data?

Superior at what? 1000m? 1400m? 1600m? 2000m?

Djebel said on Twitter "Hitotsu is 2 stone superior to Mohogany" 
Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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djebel View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Apr 2022 at 3:10pm
Do you know what that means in racing parlance Jamal ? 

Or more to the point what I was insinuating ? 


Edited by djebel - 03 Apr 2022 at 3:11pm
reductio ad absurdum
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Afros View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Afros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Apr 2022 at 3:52pm
Originally posted by Carioca Carioca wrote:

Originally posted by Afros Afros wrote:

Watching the replay it is clear to me that Alegron shifts across into Hitotsu's running line rather than Hitotsu impeding Alegron and also Hitotsu was clearly travelling better when they touched, as other suggested yesterday it would have been laughed out of the stewards room.

I really hope they give him a crack at history and go to the SA Derby next and if successful, the Qld Derby, he hasn't had a "traditional" AJC Derby prep, 3rd up into a Randwick/Australian Guineas and via either Roseghill race or the Alistair Clarke, he won't need runs in between, we likely won't see another in our time capable of winning the 4 G1 Derbies on offer in Australia, looks to good an opportunity to pass up.

Hopefully he races on in the spring and if the Cox Plate is the aim as has been said, hopefully he tackles it first or second up.  They could kick him off in either the Makybe Diva or Underwood Stakes, that would also keep the Caulfield Cup open instead of the Cox Plate if it shaped up as the better race for him.

" Laughed out of the room " Big smile Hughie's not stupid , why do you think the reason he went into the Stewards room to have a look at the head on vision before he weighed in ? sure Alegron drifted out and brushed Hitotsu , but that horse gave more than he copped and that's why J Allen was reprimanded , can't understand your idea of gallivanting around the country winning Derby's , how's Explosive Jack going ? and he's a gelding , Cox Plate the only race for this horse in the spring with a run beforehand in a 1400 WFA race maybe , Afros maybe I see things diferrence to you , but this is only my opinion . cheers .

Let's compare apples with apples mate, Explosive Jack was in work from winning his Swan Hill maiden on 25/11/2020, he had 12,540m in his legs by the time he started the Derby at Randwick, Hitotsu has raced less then 1000m further since his debut in Feb 2021.  He's also only had the 2 runs this prep.  Over the timeframe of Hitotsu's prep so far Explose Jack ran in the Alistair Clarke and Bendigo St Leger trial having already ran in the aforementioned maiden, a 2100m Class 1, a 2400m BM64 and the 2200m Tasmanian Derby.

The SA Derby is on May 14, the Qld Derby on May 28.  The Cox Plate is on October 22, I really doubt running in one or both Derbies is going to burn him out all that much.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote Afros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Apr 2022 at 3:56pm
Originally posted by Jamal Jamal wrote:

Originally posted by Tlazolteotl Tlazolteotl wrote:

Originally posted by Jamal Jamal wrote:

Apparently Hitotsu is " 2 stone superior to Mohogany" 

Has that been confirmed? Any data?

Superior at what? 1000m? 1400m? 1600m? 2000m?

Djebel said on Twitter "Hitotsu is 2 stone superior to Mohogany" 

I'll give you a hint old mate.

Hitotsu is a colt.

Mohogany is a gelding.

Do the maths.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Apr 2022 at 4:03pm

touché Clap

Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
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Tlazolteotl View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Apr 2022 at 5:07pm
You're living in dreamland 1979 if you think that they have any intention of racing Hitotsu one centimetre further this campaign.LOL
An honest politician is one who when he is bought will stay bought.

Simon Cameron

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Carioca View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Carioca Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Apr 2022 at 5:07pm
Question for you Afros ,  what would you value Hitotsu at as of now ?
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Lord Hybrow View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Lord Hybrow Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Apr 2022 at 6:52pm
The light preps have worked in his 3yo season, so no reason to change the winning formula as a 4yo.

1. Craiglee 1600m
2. Turnbull 2000m
3. Cox Plate 2040m

If he comes through these assignments in good order, then consider either a Melb Cup or Mackinnon.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Apr 2022 at 6:54pm
Am right with you LH.  
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Afros View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Afros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Apr 2022 at 10:01pm
Originally posted by Carioca Carioca wrote:

Question for you Afros ,  what would you value Hitotsu at as of now ?

As a stallion prospect?
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Carioca View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Carioca Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Apr 2022 at 11:14pm
Originally posted by Afros Afros wrote:

Originally posted by Carioca Carioca wrote:

Question for you Afros ,  what would you value Hitotsu at as of now ?

As a stallion prospect?
Yep.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Apr 2022 at 12:09am
Taking a line through D'Argento and Russian Camelot I would value Hitotsu at about the $10m.

If he can claim a Plate that would have to double. 
reductio ad absurdum
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote furious Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Apr 2022 at 10:14am
If you go back to the really early days the Cox Plate gave us Manfred and Heroic.  Mid era it was a bit hit and miss with Tulloch (not so good), Noholme (great at stud in USA), Dhaulagiri (great at stud in France but infertile and eaten before he showed his greatness), Star Affair (big disappointment), Tobin Bronze and Daryl's Joy (both went overseas for some moderate success).  The later Gunsynd and Taj Rossi both didn't rise to great heights.  But Strawberry Road was a great success in the USA.

But in the modern age we find Rubiton a great stallion if never champion.

Octagonal didn't really fire but he gave us Lonhro who did and had a great day as a broodmare sire on Saturday.

Savabeel who has been a Champion Sire and still sits at the top of the tree in New Zealand.

So You Think like Rubiton a great stallion if never a champion.  Way he's going he might end up a champion broodmare sire!  Fireburn is a great start to that career.

And finally Shamus Award.  A stallion dumped by his original stud who as it has proven probably wasn't given enough time for his stock to mature.  Because as they get older they are also great.

So the Cox Plate is on the radar of any middle distance colt.  And you have to remember this boy won the Australian Guineas which has also given us two star sires in Zabeel and Flying Spur.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Carioca Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Apr 2022 at 2:00pm
I would value this colt as of today at 12-15 Mill. if he were to win the Cox Plate $750K x 40 = $30 Mill. nice bit of history furious Wink
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Apr 2022 at 3:49pm

Hitotsu to Japan: Why Australia’s star horses are going global


The connections of star colt Hitotsu are discussing plans to head to this year’s Japan Cup after a tilt at the Cox Plate.

The ambitious November trip would cap off what’s shaping as an incredible travelling season for Australia’s star horses, with Royal Ascot on the agenda for Chris Waller’s sprinters Home Affairs and Nature Strip, and the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe not impossible for Melbourne Cup winner Verry Elleegant.

Hitotsu followed in the footsteps of Dulcify and Mahogany in winning the Victoria and AJC derbies, split with a stunning win in the Australian Guineas, which makes him a valuable stud prospect.

But his connections, including co-trainers Ciaron Maher and David Eustace, and managing owner Ozzie Kheir, believe a Cox Plate tilt in the spring and then a trip to Japan for their time-honoured Cup offer the horse the best opportunity to bolster his reputation.

“That’s the beauty, we’re talking about the top group 1 races,” Kheir said.

“Definitely the Cox Plate is our immediate target, and the Japan Cup is definitely a race that we originally were targeting for Sir Dragonet. That could be a target now for Hitotsu, which would be great, and being by [Japanese stallion] Maurice, I think it would enhance his value if he was able to go there and perform well against the very best in Japan.

“After the weekend you look at it and say, ‘where do you go?’ That race is 2400 metres, so I think it’s right down his alley.”

The Melbourne Cup is another possibility for Hitotsu, who has shown his dynamic ability in two derbies, but it would require another incredible training effort from the Maher-Eustace camp to squeeze the 3200-metre handicap into his spring program in between a Cox Plate - held nine days earlier - and a Japan Cup - held 26 days later and 8000 kms away.

But Kheir believes a firm track in Japan will suit Hitotsu much better than Saturday’s heavy Randwick track.


The Japan Cup attracted some of Australia’s best weight-for-age horses in the 1980s and 1990s, including winner Better Loosen Up (1990), placegetter Shaftsbury Avenue (1991) and runner-up Naturalism (1992).

Only Caulfield Cup winner Boom Time (2017) has attempted the task in recent years, but with COVID-19 restrictions easing, the idea of travelling horses overseas has never been hotter.

Nature Strip looks destined for Royal Ascot following his third TJ Smith Stakes win on Saturday, as is stablemate Home Affairs, while Kheir said Verry Elleegant - who he is also a part-owner in - would have to perform well this weekend in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes to warrant her bid for one of the world’s greatest races, the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in France in October.

“No flights [are booked] as yet, but we might look at some airfare tickets and pricing after Saturday,” Kheir said.

“We won’t jump the gun yet, but we’ll wait and see how Verry Elleegant runs in the Queen Elizabeth, and we’ll assess it then. She’s got to get through and win well if she’s any chance of the Arc.”

reductio ad absurdum
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote TJMitchell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 May 2022 at 6:51pm
Suspensory injury. IF decide to race on it won't be until Autumn 2023.
Time is a flat circle
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 May 2022 at 7:08pm
Thanks TJ, such bad news.

Has apparently been in the paddock for five weeks so wonder when he did the suspensory?  We not so long ago had one sustain the same injury. Came back after a very long period off and only after a detailed recovery process.  Won again first up and then tore it again so almost needless to say was retired.  

And he was a gelding, whereas this fellow is a colt so his chances of fully recovering are decreased accordingly if one understands the implications of enforced layoff for a stallion.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote TJMitchell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 May 2022 at 7:11pm
Guineas, dual Derby winner. It sucks but I'd retire him.
Time is a flat circle
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shawy38 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 May 2022 at 7:20pm
Unfortunate, but I think he’ll be mounting mares come spring just quietly 
Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 May 2022 at 7:30pm
Great minds Shawy.  There's not a hell of us left.  Smile
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 May 2022 at 8:49pm
f**king Albanese. 
reductio ad absurdum
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Afros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 May 2022 at 9:13pm
Stud gurus, what is the worth of Hitotsu as a stallion prospect in Australia, compared to a European colt who won the 2000 Guineas (either English or Irish) and both the English and Irish derbies?

I guess Camelot is a good comparison?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 May 2022 at 10:01pm
Probably around $10m

He does not have a pedigree dripping with class, he needed a mile just to warm up.

Love Conquers All stood for 12500 in his first season, this guy should be able to be marketed at $30,000 plus. 
reductio ad absurdum
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Lord Hybrow Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 May 2022 at 10:46pm
Definately sucks.  Was really hoping he’d be the star of the spring with the Cox Plate & Japan Cup plan.

Couldn’t blame connections if they sold out to a major stud farm but fingers crossed he’s back racing again in 2023.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Afros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 May 2022 at 7:17am
Australian Cup first up, Tancred second up in the autumn and the 2022 spring plans followed in 2023 instead.

Provided the horse is sound of course.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Afros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 May 2022 at 7:22am
Originally posted by djebel djebel wrote:

Probably around $10m

He does not have a pedigree dripping with class, he needed a mile just to warm up.

Love Conquers All stood for 12500 in his first season, this guy should be able to be marketed at $30,000 plus. 

My angle was more around what he'd be worth in Europe as a stallion prospect compared to over here with how they value Derby winners, hence mentioning Camelot who's exploits as a 3yo are somewhat comparable.
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