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TDF - 2022

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oneonesit View Drop Down
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    Posted: 07 Jul 2022 at 3:36pm
OK - a touch late - by popular request  LOL. Every stage live from start on SBS around 9pm each night

Recap - up to Stage 6 & not a fair dinkum mountain climbed. Even so - & as usual - we have seen major GC rider chances diminish due to bad luck - crashes, untimely mechanicals. Roglic in particular is a few minutes down. Others like Aussie Storer are already looking at stage victories & KOM (King of Mountain). O'Connor probably the same. All this leaves favourite & cycling prodigy Pogacar (The Pog from here on in) looking totally in control. But don't let that kid you - we have a lot of serious racing to come - & history shows anything can - & probably will - happen. The Pogs team is only average - not a patch on Jumbo (Roglic / Vinegard) or Ineos (Thomas). Expect constant long range attacks from both in the big mountains to isolate him. A sneaky for the KOM - Moviestar rider Mulberger @ $301 e/w. Been smoking a pipe the last few months & has already deliberately lost time to get freedom to attack. Giddy up !

STAGE 6 - first hill stage (note - i didn't say mountain) & the longest stage of the Tour - a mere 220km. Too hard for the sprinters & too easy for the GC riders to create big gaps - so they will keep their ammo dry for another day. So we will see the allrounders - the classic style riders - licking their lips here. Likely to see the first genuine scrap to get into the breakaway - with those down on GC likely to be given the green light to do so. Once established i don't think the peloton will see them again.

i always look for value. E/w nibble Hirschi ($251) & Mulberger ($301) on bet365
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Carioca Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Jul 2022 at 3:58pm
Good one , 1x1 . Wink
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ExceedAndExcel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Jul 2022 at 4:31pm
Good stuff OneOne! Thumbs Up
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jujuno Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Jul 2022 at 6:32pm
  Once upon a time I'd be awake until the finish, every night.

 It was always hold-your-breath time on the climbs, waiting to see a rider brought down by a dumb spectator infringing on the road. 

 I saw Simon Clarke's victory on the news, this morning. Might be tempted to tune in tonight.

  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Jul 2022 at 10:50am
How is anybody going to beat Pogačar in this decade? His dominance does not make for an exciting race.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Jul 2022 at 12:32pm
The Pog is a freak of nature - no doubt. 

Important to put it into perspective though. His skill set predominately revolves around his climbing ability. Not to say he hasn't had some success in the Classics - however it would be fair to say there are many who can match him as a rouleur. I would suggest that both Wout Van Art & Remco Evaneopol are at least as talented from an all round cycling perspective. Roglic at his peak also. All 3 are better one day Classic riders. Van Der Poel is another.

Now whilst he looked great last night - I detected for the first time some concern when Vinregard went past him. And whilst head to head you would back The Pog - 21 Day Tour outcomes are not as simple as that. We still have 14 days left - most of it hard climbing days and The Pogs team is just not that good. I think they are making a tactical mistake controlling the Yellow so early in the race. This is burning up the domestiques & I see the likes of Jumbo & Ineos taking full advantage in the big stages in week 3. I mean Jumbo have 5 riders that would be team leaders in almost any other team - Roglic, Vinegaard, Kuss , Kruswick & & Van Art. Throw in team Ineos working with them i think they can break The Pog. He will need to be superman.

Dont be surprised he he gets caught out on a flat stage with cross-winds. You need a strong team

Crashes & mechanicals can also play their part over 21 Days. Remember Yates a few years back in the Giro. Went from el supremo to gonzo in a flash. 

Whatever the outcome - it will be a great watch
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Jul 2022 at 8:22pm
The problem I see oneone is that the other teams do not have a strong team to either attack or defend against Pogacar for three weeks.

Jumbo Visma have three genuine high grade riders in Roglic, Vingegaard and Wout Van Art but all seem to ride for themselves. Van Art is a stage grabber after his time in yellow. Vingegaard and Roglic are fighting for the designated leader of the team and so they and the team do not seem to know who to ride for and who to follow and who to let ride away. 

I can see something similar to the 2008 CSC plan happening. That year they had the two Schelck brothers and Sastre. For two and a half weeks the Schlecks did the rope a dope, even getting Andy the yellow jersey, and then all of a sudden on the final mountain stage Sastre went for broke and got the lead he needed to hold of Evans in the final time trial.

Before the race I thought Roglic was that guy, but he had that crash on the cobblestones and he has lost too much time that he is a non threat now.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Jul 2022 at 9:07pm
I think Jumbo are a very strong team - I'd be surprised if they don't continually launch long range attacks on the bigger stages in an attempt to isolate The Pog. Although I 
agree with both  Kuss & Kruzwick being 8 plus minutes down it will be harder to execute than it should have been. The Pog should do what everyone expects - just be too strong - total package  - will be great too watch. Heard him interviewed last night - what a great ambassador for the sport at such a young age. In fact as a more general comment all the riders seem to show great respect for each other. 

I'm predicting a win for the break tonight. GC went hard yesterday & big stages coming so they will want to rest their domestiques. Finish too hard for the pure sprinters. So that only leaves the puncheurs fancying their chances. Look at the breakaway being full of them well down on GC. Mathews, Van Art, Van Der Poel, Pollits, Bettiol.   
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Jul 2022 at 5:57pm
These young guns are a different breed. They want to win every stage - requires a massive rethink LOL

Now normally todays stage would have "breakaway" written all over it - even with it being before a rest day. 

Bugger it - i'll stick with that prediction.

Pls Moviestar - you have done bugger all so far in this tour - the high mountains are upon us - let Muhlberger off his leash to do his breakaway thing 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jul 2022 at 8:57pm
Tonight & tomorrows huge mountain alp stages could be a horror story for The Pog. An average team has now been ravished with Covid. He will be isolated tonight on the second last climb - with Vinregaard sitting on his wheel. Roglic will attack - as could a few others like Quintana & Vlasov. His best chance of keeping the wolves away could be to attack first a long way out. Very risky - stinking hot day to boot

Then an even bigger stage awaits him tomorrow.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Grey Affair Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Jul 2022 at 3:23am
The Pog cracks on the Col du Granon.

Brilliant ride by Jonas Vingegaard to win the stage & take the Yellow Jacket.
Romain Bardet is 2nd on the GC with a deficit of 2:12 with Pogacar 3rd at 2:22.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Jul 2022 at 11:26am
Yes - writing was on the wall. Thought when he survived the attacks on the penultimate climb he was still going to be the strongest.

Just emphasizes the need for a strong team. You may be able to off-set it for a day or two - but not weeks

Now you watch The Pog come out & smash em LOL

Actually this rivalry could see someone out of left field arrive on the scene. Tonight is probably a breakaway stage - The Pog recovering - Jumbo/Ineos defending their position. The break will be extremely strong - riders now out of GC contention - starting uphill - Caruso , Mas , & even Parrett-Pientre (French - Bastille Day !) - & if no one chases a lot of riders could bring back the gap. Then you have the normal breakaway pests like Pinot sniffing around for a stage win

Selections - e/w - Caruso ($29), Paret-Pientre ($200), Mulberger ($200) = now Mas is out of GC all the Movistar boys will be off the leash. Giddy up !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote horlicks Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Jul 2022 at 4:20pm
Question 1-1 How often has a breakaway survived the Alpe D'Huez?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Jul 2022 at 5:43pm
Why has Pog got a weak team? Is it weaker than than the previous 2 years?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Jul 2022 at 6:30pm
Originally posted by horlicks horlicks wrote:

Question 1-1 How often has a breakaway survived the Alpe D'Huez?
Off the top of my head I'd suggest about 20% - its a climb that is used as a pivotal stage so usually gets a lot of GC action. Not always though - just depends on the team positions / gaps / climbing days prior & after.

For example, I think tonight will be a breakaway. Normally you you would forecast GC - however yesterdays stage changed everything. Jumbo has the leader with a few minutes - so will probably ride to protect that position. Thomas (Ineos) looked vulnerable yesterday so doubt he will want to try setting alight today. The only fly on the ointment could be The Pog - who for the first time got smashed. Jumbo slow roasted him. So knowing him he could come out & go for broke - he wont be happy following Vinegaard around for the next 13 days . However i'm thinking he will settle for an easier (not easy) day  - which means the very strong break will get away & win. The GC action will probably limited to the last climb by which time is will be away & all over. Whenever you have the race start on a big climb you can be guaranteed the break will have strong climbers. Expect both Mas & Caruso - big losers yesterday - to get into the break for the stage & even possibly look to the king of the mountains points.

Also it is Bastille Day - & the French have not won a stage yet. Should be a corker up front tonight
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Jul 2022 at 1:11pm
And the break wins

All the previews saying tonight stage will be a bunch sprint. Logic suggests its their last real chance before Paris - & the GC boys will be happy letting the sprinters teams chase for the day

However - against all odds - i see the breakaway surviving again. Lots of very tired legs & a lot of very good riders well suited to getting into a strong break. Rolling terrain , slight tailwind & a few categorised launch pads is enough to give them a real shout. Some massive e/w odds around on live chances as well. Jorgensen ($200), Paret-Piente ($300), Grosschartner ($300) & Tusveld ($500) e/w worth a few dollars. Think at least one will be in the break & give you a few hours entertainment.

Giddy up
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Jul 2022 at 1:33pm
How can you seriously watch this stupid ''sport''?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Jul 2022 at 1:35pm
Insomnia Sleepy
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Jul 2022 at 2:21pm
Originally posted by Passing Through Passing Through wrote:

How can you seriously watch this stupid ''sport''?
It is the most strategic sport there is. So much to learn & understand about the teams, what they are aiming for, how the goal posts change, tactics employed, ect

For the casual observer i agree - most stages look boring. You need to look below the surface

Stick to the NRL & cricket PT - more your go i'd say
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Jul 2022 at 2:22pm
Probably close to being the most dangerous sport in the world (amongst major sports anyway) 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Jul 2022 at 2:26pm
If you finish at the back of a group 300m away you get the same time, in the last stage you aren't allowed to pass the yellow jacket and there are more dopers in the sport than any other included the sports most celebrated winner having to give all 7 wins back.  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Jul 2022 at 6:29pm
No more stupid than basketball.

That sport you can basically do away with everything but the last two minutes and just have two minute matches. You either have the matches come down to the last two minutes or they are blowouts and the majority of the match is worthless.

No more stupid than golf.

This is not a sport, it is a recreational activity that due to being financed by wealthy white men, makes them feel like athletes. 

No more stupid than cricket.

Play a sport for five days, and still not have a result.

No more stupid than about 60% of sports.

I would also like to know why cycling is not considered a sport, which is the implication PT has made with his reference?

It has all the elements of a sport, speed, stamina, skill, strategy and strength. 

I can name at least twenty more "popular" sports which are lacking one or more of these elements yet they are considered sports.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Jul 2022 at 6:33pm
Well said Voyager

I think we know the answer. Bit hard for him to get his head around !

Mind you - totally understandable Ouch 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Jul 2022 at 6:34pm
I dont watch basketball either.
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