Saving The Melbourne Cup
If I was to put it to you that you were solely responsible for signing off on 32 well-known local horses travelling to Australia for major races worth ridiculous amounts of money, but the trade-off was that two of those horses would not be making it home to their stable after the race, would you sign off on the trip?
If the answer is yes, don’t bother reading on any further, and please don’t feel compelled to contact me in regards to this article. However, if your answer is no, can I politely request you to read on.
During the week, Racing Victoria announced what is being branded as ‘Enhanced safety initiatives to set a new global benchmark for The Spring Racing Carnival’.
In layman terms, this means new safety measures will be introduced this year. This follows a lengthy review into the rate of fatal injuries sustained by international horses during the Spring Racing Carnival over the past decade, with a primary focus on the Melbourne Cup.
The Racing Victoria Board has endorsed 41 recommendations, which centre on enhanced veterinary oversight and screening of international horses seeking to compete in the Spring Racing Carnival. The recommendations also include a cap on the number of horses that are allowed to enter the Werribee International Horse Centre (that would be quarantine to you and I) for the Spring Carnival to 24 from an uncapped peak of 42 in 2018.
Understandably, there are a couple of issues associated with the changes that have seen several European trainers express their concerns, with some saying it will be near on impossible to take a horse down for the Cup.
Whilst I sympathise with the points they have made, it’s difficult to understand why they seem to be genuinely shocked at the measures that have now been put into place, given all that has happened over the last few years.
I’m not sure that people in this part of the world fully grasp the negative impact these fatalities are having, not just on the Cup, but also on the racing industry in Australia. The Melbourne Cup has traditionally been known as The Race That Stops a Nation, but with all the recent deaths it is now the race that splits a nation, and the turnaround has been rapid.
Only two years ago, arguably the world’s most famous pop star, Taylor Swift, cancelled a scheduled performance on Cup Day after an extensive worldwide social media campaign protesting at the singer’s involvement in the race. It’s a far cry from when British model Jean Shrimpton, who in 1965 was in heralded in the arrival of the swinging sixties to Australia, by wearing what was believed to be the first mini skirt seen Down Under to the Cup. Once what was the place to be seen for the trendiest lady in the world is now the place to avoid at all costs.
Groups such as “The Coalition for the protection of racehorses’ and ‘Nup to the Cup’ are growing their numbers at a rapid rate, and these aren’t just some tree-hugging far, left crazies who haven’t anything better to do. Well known celebrities and sports stars are signing up, prominent cafe and restaurant owners are not only refusing to show the race, but they are prepared to take a financial hit by also refusing to book Melbourne Cup parties and luncheons.
Last year in Sydney, the Newtown Hotel made headlines for putting an end to Melbourne Cup celebrations under its roof, instead opting to hold a "F--- the Cup" event, raising money for Horse Rescue Australia. They will be holding the same event this year.
Sure, there have been horse-racing protestors around for years in Australia, but not like this, not in the numbers we are now seeing, not backed by high profile people, and this has all been expedited by these recent tragic deaths.
So why are these international horse deaths occurring? There are credible theories and some intelligent people working tirelessly to get to the bottom of it, but despite all of this, if we are being honest, there is no definitive answer. But to put it all into context let's have a look at some numbers.
The numbers
Figures released for horse fatalities on the flat:
North America Flat - 1.41 per 1000 starters
British Flat - 0.60 per 1000 starters
Victoria Flat - 0.44 per 1000 starters
Racing Victoria, at less than half a fatality (0.44) on the flat per 1000 starters, has one of the lowest fatality rates in the world, lower than North America and England (Ireland figures are not so easy to source). The last local horse to lose their life in the Melbourne Cup was Dulcify over 40 years ago in 1979. Given the race was first run in 1861, with fields up to 39 and jockeys as young as 12, the fatality rate has been very low amongst the locals (which includes our neighbours in New Zealand).
Since 2013, there have been 80 Northern Hemisphere-trained horses contest the Melbourne Cup and of those 80 horses, six have lost their lives. To be fair, one was in an after-race incident that whilst tragic, cannot be directly attributed to the race itself so we will use the figure of 5.
This does not include horses who had to be put down after going-wrong at the quarantine centre, but does include Admire Rakti from Japan who collapsed and died of heart failure, not long after the race.
If we bump the Victorian fatality rate and set it at 1:2000 (it is actually less, 0.88), it would mean that for every 2000 local runners sent around in the Melbourne Cup, you would expect only 1 not to make it home. However, if you take the last eight runnings of the Cup for Northern Hemisphere-trained runners and applied the recent fatality rate of 5:80, of 2000 runners sent out, you would expect 125 (let me repeat that, 125!), horses not to make it home. I know that no one reading this article would find that even remotely acceptable.
We could debate why it’s happening, and there could be an element of coincidence, although the above figures would suggest it’s anything but coincidence. I won't go down that route except to touch on ground conditions, as this seems to be one of the more popular theories on social media.
The ground
With Victoria having one of the lower fatality rates in the world, it would seem rather nonsensical to suggest that is where the problem lies. But I’ll entertain the theory nonetheless.
In Australia, tracks are rated on a scale of 1 to 10.
Firm 1: Dry hard track
Firm 2: Firm track with reasonable grass coverage
Good 3: Track with good grass coverage and cushion
Good 4: Track with some give in it
Soft 5: Track with a reasonable amount of give in it
Soft 6: Moist but not a badly affected track
Soft 7: More rain-affected track that will chop out
Heavy 8: Rain affected track that horses will get into
Heavy 9: Wet track getting into a squelchy area
Heavy 10: Heaviest category track, very wet, towards saturation
The Victoria Turf Club aim for a Good 3 to 4 when weather permits. This is clearly stated by the Club on their website and all visiting connections from interstate, New Zealand or from the Northern Hemisphere are aware. Given that this is considered ideal racing ground in Australia and horses are built to local conditions, does anybody really believe that a Club should tailor conditions to visiting horses at the expense of local horses in a jurisdiction that has a lower fatality rate? The entire idea is preposterous.
The onus is on connections to bring the right type of horse. Case at hand is Charlie Fellows and Prince Of Arran. Charlie could have taken Prince Of Arran to Sydney for the Cup, a race he would have romped home based on his Melbourne Cup performances, but as Charlie has rightfully pointed out, his old warrior prefers decent ground and he’s more likely to get that in Melbourne.
Would it be fair to Charlie and the connections to soften the ground on a logic that simply does not stack up? The fatality rates Australia-wide, which are some of the lowest in the world, tell the story, the ground is perfectly safe for sound horses.
It should also be pointed out that none of these Melbourne Cups have been run on firm ground. Of the last eight renewals, two have been run on rain-affected ground (Soft 5 and Soft 6) and the other six have all been run on a Good 3. (For context - Addeybb, who by all reports prefers a softer surface, recently won the Queen Elizabeth on a Good 4).
One of the fatalities was on soft ground, and whilst that wouldn’t totally dispel the theory that the ground is the issue, it does put a rather large dent in the logic. Not to mention that the recommendation was never to drench Flemington to the point of soft ground, it was simply to aim at a Good 4 instead of a Good 3.
The jealousy theory
There has been a suggestion that the numbers have been capped to protect the race from the international raiders. Sorry, can you say that again? This simply makes zero sense.
The Victorian Racing Club, over the years, has invested tens of millions of dollars into building up the international profile of the race, and reaped the rewards from the commercial success that has come from that vision. So, it does beg the question, as to why they would then go and shoot themselves in the foot by capping the number of international horses purely to discourage them from running?
You need to understand the Australian landscape at this point in time. New South Wales have recently made massive investments in creating events like The Championships and The Everest. As someone who has been invited down to cover these meetings for Sky Sports Racing and ATR, I've seen first-hand the huge undertaking by the Australian Turf Club in attracting international horses such as Addeybb and July Cup winners, US Navy Flag and Ten Sovereigns.
Luring big international names to their feature meetings formed part of The Australian Turf Club’s pitch when they went to the NSW Government asking for support.
There’s no other way to describe this, but NSW and Victoria don’t like each other and have staged a good old fashion ‘who can pee the farthest’ competition in recent times. Victoria will know that by introducing more stringent procedures for international runners and by capping the numbers, they have given NSW an advantage they didn’t have before.
You don’t need to be a genius to work out that the powers that be, in NSW, will now be sitting down to formulate an initiative based along the lines of ‘if you can't get into Melbourne don’t worry, we’ll welcome you with open arms to Sydney’.
There was no suggestion of foul play when the Kiwis (the most successful nation outside of Australia) were winning the race. Sorry to say to all the conspiracy theorists, but the sensible money is on the logical reason for the cap, that being the recent totally unacceptable 1:16 death rate of Northern Hemisphere-trained runners.
Not to mention the amount of pressure from sponsors, the public and politicians forcing the Club's hand, far more so than a few trainers whinging that they can't get their horse into the race.
One of the key members on the Steering Committee for the changes introduced was Vin Cox, who is considered one of the most respected horsemen in Australia. Vin is also the Manager Director of Godolphin Down Under. I’m sure most people would be aware of Godolphin’s support of the Spring Carnival and the Melbourne Cup itself over many years.
Does anyone really believe that Godolphin’s main man in Australia has just signed off on safety initiatives that will make it harder for his employer to travel horses to Melbourne because they are sulking about the internationals? It beggars belief that anyone would be buying into this line of thought.
Whilst the Melbourne Cup may be steeped in tradition, it is a rarity in Australia in that it’s an open staying race and one of only three run over 2 miles at Pattern level. The other two being the Group 1 Sydney Cup and the Group 2 Adelaide Cup.
Of the 77 Group 1 races in Australia, 51 are run at 1 mile and below. The point being, that whilst I’m sure the locals would like to have more runners and win the Cup, it's not a race that plays to the locals' strengths. They know that, and there are plenty of other lucrative options that are more suitable.
The highest rated races in Australia are constantly sprint races; The Everest, The Newmarket, The Lightning, and The T J Smith etc. Two of these races were won by horses running higher figures than any Group 1 winner (RPR) in Ireland last year. Thus, the jealousy theory, I respectively suggest, is a load of baloney, although that may change if July Cup winners start dominating the Everest!
The future
Will we see fewer international runners? With the more stringent screening process and the numbers now capped, yes, is the simple answer. As a proponent of international racing, I think that’s a shame. However, although I’m not sure if the measures that have been taken are the right ones (I doubt if anyone does at this point), if the consequences of protecting the industry and saving the race, an event that has become a racing liability on the world stage (and that’s something I didn’t think I’d ever be saying) is less horses travelling from overseas, then so be it.
The Cup and the industry are bigger than the individual, and make no mistake, the race and the industry are under siege in Australia. The anti-racing folk Down Under are far more active, loud and influential than here, in Britain and Ireland. But critically, they are gathering far more prominent support and a larger platform.
There will still be international runners, the pot is simply too big to ignore for the type of horse who can contest the race, and the Cup is a better spectacle for the international participation. But regardless of how its future shapes, the race was hugely successful before the internationals arrived (one in every two people in Australia watch the race live) and that won’t change if the visitors don’t come.
The voice of a genius
You’ll make up your own mind, and I wouldn’t blame you if you didn’t want to listen to some media hack from Australia (who unashamedly states he understands far more about the lie of the land Down Under than most here who are commenting), who you may think is simply waving the flag and will protect it at all costs. So ladies and gentleman, I give you Mr Dermot Weld.
Dermot Weld is revered in Australia, and I can’t think of a single Australian (beside a few of the local connections), who wouldn’t be delighted to see the Irishman add to his two winners in the Cup. I missed out on Vintage Crop, but as the ‘go to man’ at my then work place, I told anyone who would listen to back Media Puzzle (by God that was a good day), We all cleaned up and I don’t think I paid for another drink until the following year.
But let’s not digress. I think most would agree that as the first Northern Hemisphere trainer to win the race, Weld is more than qualified than most to comment on the recent changes.
After last year's Melbourne Cup, Weld was quoted as saying (Herald Sun): ”More must be done in Europe before Cup horses leave their home countries including a full body scan and a CT scan of their fetlock joint”.
The Herald Sun contacted Weld again in the wake of the recommendations this week, including a cap on the number of internationals allowed at Werribee, and the medical scrutiny applied at both ends.
The Herald Sun provided the following quote from Weld: “I gave you a few comments last year, and from what you are telling me now, I am very glad they have implemented the suggestions that I made. It is interesting that they have more or less followed through on the suggestions that I made and I am very happy they have done so. I just made my suggestions to be helpful and I hope it all works out well for everybody.”
A very intelligent man is Mr Weld.
At the end of the day, for those who still think this is all one big conspiracy, you can always create a 2-mile, £4 million handicap to be run locally in November on soft ground. Problem solved.
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Jamal wrote:
