Spring Carnival 2020

As somebody just asked me, Why does he keep getting a platform ?

I can not stand listening to Matt Chapman but nearly always agree with what he has to say. Richie on the other hand... 

Empire Rose Stakes

1. Mystic Journey - 87. No flaws here, Loves Flemington, drawn well, can sit forward, handles wet or dry, returned to somewhere near her real form last start and I like her having a freshen up coming into this race. The one to beat!

2. Nettoyer - 80. Her prep was going nowhere until last start where she ran okay in the Cox Plate. I still can't see her winning at WFA, but she is a good miler and she should be better at this point into her prep. Top four chance.

3. Madame Rouge - 76. Good strong win last start, but there is a good deal of speed here and so this will be a strongly run 1600m and she is to me a 1400m specialist. No chance here!

4. Pretty Brazen - 84. Loves the track, her only 1600m run was good and handles good or soft tracks. Now ready for the mile and drawn to get a nice run from the gate. Can win, but for me she is more a top four hope.

5. Vanna Girl - 75. Her form to me lacks depth. She finished behind Nettoyer at WFA last start and on that alone I can not see her winning. Has the inside gate and she should get a nice run, but if she wins then I lose.

6. Shout The Bar - 81. Think this is her grand final. Will go forward from the wide gate, she will make it a real 1600m test and if the track plays as normal for the derby meeting she will be in the right spot in the run. Oliver on is a positive and can see her running well @ $51.00. Definite each way contender. Also the wetter the better for her.

7. Asiago - 82. To win I think she needs a wet track, but she is nowhere near a $81.00 chance. Her two 1600m runs have been good. Her form might suggest she is a genuine group 3 mare but this field is not full of group 1 winners and she can finish top four at least.

8. Missile Mantra - 85. Now if you want to back one to be sure you will get a good run on a dry or wet, then she is your bet. Brilliant run behind a strong winner two back. Beaten by Sovereign Award last start and she has franked that form by demolishing the Tesio field on Cox Plate day. Will get a lovely do nothing run during the race and she does have a good late surge to get over the top of the field late. $26.00 is the best overs of the race.

9. Felicia - 81. If this was 1400m she would be nearly top rater. In outstanding form and will be given every hope to run the 1600m by Williams, but there is good sped here and she is like Madame Rouge, the last 100m will be the problem. 

10. She Shao Fly - 83. Again she is more a 1400m horse and I am not sure she will run the trip right out but gets every hope from the gate. On form she is just about the one to beat, but that last 100m will be tough.

11. Chaillott - 79. Might be twelve months too soon for her, but her run in the Ladies Vase at caulfield gives her a hope. drawn to be given every hope and no surprise if she won, but again a top four hope for me.

12. Odeum - 87. Looks the one to beat. Drawn to roll forward, 1600m ideal, well in at weights and is in good form. 

13. Chica Fuerte - 83. Comes through the lesser 3yo fillies races but has had a good foundation to run well here. Goes from 2000m back to 1600m, will go forward and if she can get across not using too much petrol she can kick on into a place.

14. Forbidden Love - 83. Has form over shorter distances around Wild Ruler and Dame Giselle and Hungry Heart. I have a slight query at the 1600m so not sure where they go from the barrier. If she gets a good run she can get into the top four but not win.

Ratings.

1. No.12 Odeum - 87

2. No.1 Mystic Journey - 87

3. No.8 Missile Mantra - 85

4. No.4 Pretty Brazen - 84

5. No.13 Chica Fuerte - 83

6. No.10 She Shao Fly - 83.

Add ins for any scratchings are No.14 & No.7

Race Summary: This field has been impacted by the other races on offer as there is no Arcadia Queen, Perfect Jewel, Probabeel, Funstar, Flit, Collette, Sovereign Award and even Melody Belle and Avantage from NZ. For me Mystic Journey and Odeum are the clear top raters. Missile Mantra comes into this in good form and will get a lovely run and handles all conditions, she is good overs @ $26.00. Pretty Brazen looks well placed and the other two 3yo fillies are top four hopes. Shout The Bar is the one for me who could improve significantly and while her and Asiago need the wet to win they make their presence felt.

Betting Strategy

$200 win No.12 Odeum

$100 win No.  4 Pretty Brazen

$50   EW No.  6 Shout The Bar

$50   EW No.  8 Missile Mantra

Good luck to all investors and their investments!

         

1. Farnan - 84. I see Bowman has been left by the roadside . At his best he wins, but is he at his best. I will be betting around him, but he can finish top four.

2. Wild Ruler - 87. His two wins this time in have been good, but he has raced the third level three year olds. Will just behind the speed and should look the winner at some stage towards the last 200m.

3. Mamaragan - 74. Love the horse and that is why I will have a small bet on him @ $126.00, but on his form he is nowhere near winning.

4. Glenfiddich - 84. The 1200m is short but if he can reproduce his Memsie fresh run rating can go close. Has the class to win, but it is coming back from the mile, but that could suit if they go hard.

5. Ranting - 86. Loved his win in the Blue Sapphire, in a 3 horse field. Looks to be coming to his peak at the right time.

6. Doubtland - 78. Looks to be a genuine group 3 galloper, and he sits behind Wild Ruler. Has won down the straight before but that was a low rating race. 

7. Anders - 83. I have tow huge queries. One the distance, and second the draw. If the inside of the straight is favored then he can run well, but for me he is not a genuine winning chance.

8. Holyfield - 80. Also back from the mile here but he needs to improve to be a place hope.

9. Extra Time - 77. Is coming through a low level 3yo group in Adelaide so he needs a career best to win. Can not see him winning but will put him in my exotics.

10. Our Playboy - 74. Although his fresh form is good enough including a win over Ranting he needs to go to a new level to win here.

11. Flying Award - 76. Back to 1200m should suit but there are a few here that have him covered.

12. Swats That - 88. Her three runs this time in have been very very good. Her fresh run down the straight was good and for me she is the best of the fillies.

13. Muntaseera - 84. Not sure she is good enough to win but she should get a lovely run and can finish hard into the placings. 

14. September Run - 86. Good win two back defeating Swats That. Meets her a half kilo better for the  3 quarter of a length win so no reason she can not win. 

Ratings

1. No.12 Swats That - 88

2. No.  2 Wild Ruler - 87

3. No.14 September Run - 86

4. No.  5 Ranting - 86

5. No.  4 Glenfiddich - 84

6. No.13 Muntaseera - 84

Add ins for any scratchings are No.1 & No.7

Race Summary: For me I think the winner comes from Wild Ruler, Ranting, Swats That and September Run. Wild Ruler and Swats That the main hopes. The only other winning hope for me would be Glenfiddich and if there is any money for him I will be following in. Farnan is good enough to win, but if he does it would be one of Gai's best training efforts.

Betting Strategy

$150 win @ $6.50 No.2 Wild Ruler

$100 win @ $8.50 No.12 Swats That

$  50 win + $100 place @ $16.00 No.4 Glenfiddich

$  40 EW @ $19.00 No.5 Ranting

$  10 EW @ $126.00 No.3 Mamaragan

Good luck to all investors and their investments!