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my last 5 weight rated races syd melb
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Take2 View Drop Down
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    Posted: 21 Sep 2019 at 12:38pm
caulfield today


RACE no RATED
5 3 5.8
  4 1.9
  11 7.7
 
6 6 3.5
  9 3.1
  11 3.5
 
7 3 7
  5 10.7
  13 3.5
  14 4.4
  15 4.4
 
8 1 4.1
  2 4.6
  10 3.7
 
9 2 2.3
  3 9.4
  4 11.7
  9 11.7
  13 11.7

randwick today

5
7 1.6
10 4.1
6
3 1.7
10 3.1
7 1 3.5
2 6.1
3 7
4 3.9
8 11 2.3
16 4
9 2 6.3
6 7.8
7 1.6


change is simply a destination on a journey reached by taking the first step (i said that) lol

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Points: 5297 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Take2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Sep 2019 at 12:39pm
3rd column is rated required odds
change is simply a destination on a journey reached by taking the first step (i said that) lol

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Take2 View Drop Down
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Points: 5297 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Take2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Sep 2019 at 7:07pm
Originally posted by Take2 Take2 wrote:

caulfield today


RACE no RATED
5 3 5.8
  4 1.9
  11 7.7
 
6 6 3.5
  9 3.1
  11 3.5
 
7 3 7
  5 10.7
  13 3.5
  14 4.4
  15 4.4
 
8 1 4.1
  2 4.6
  10 3.7
 
9 2 2.3
  3 9.4
  4 11.7
  9 11.7
  13 11.7

randwick today

5
7 1.6
10 4.1
6
3 1.7
10 3.1
7 1 3.5
2 6.1
3 7
4 3.9
8 11 2.3
16 4
9 2 6.3
6 7.8
7 1.6


race 8 caulf horse 10 $44.00WinkTongueLOL
change is simply a destination on a journey reached by taking the first step (i said that) lol

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Points: 5297 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Take2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Sep 2019 at 10:12am
the secret to making the odss work for you is to bet more than one horse per race, always bet when "over the odds", frame your own markets using a consistent approach, calculate your bet to profit a set amount per race, no matter which of your bets actually wins traditional weight based ratings probably work the best, as long as you follow the rules and dont deviate
some things to watch out for in weight based ratings are
try to assess the jockeys ability in kilos, eg a top jockey like mcevoy- bowman - oliver etc are rated at 0.5 kilos (nothings perfect) and a raw apprentice on a sliding scale is 6 or 7.0 kilos, always include an apprentices claim in your calcs, jockeys are always a penalty, apprentices claims are a bonus
a jockeys inherent ability rating seldom changes,first uppers are always a contentious point, i penalise a horse 3kg when returning from a spell 1.5 kg 2nd up and .5 kg 3rd up. use a horses previous 1st and secocond runs from a spell as the base for todays rating, form bonuses (improving form) are 3kg if form is improving  in starts3-6, 1.5 kg improving form after that, and for every deterioration in form penalise 1 kg per 3kg fall
you can
actually, if you just follow the don scott method as shown in his (now, very expensive books) and tweak it for yourself, you will win more reularly and get massive overlays, yesterday was a prime example, rated at 3.60 i am eloquent won at odss up to $44.00. and paid $34.00 on TAB.com.au 
change is simply a destination on a journey reached by taking the first step (i said that) lol

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Points: 5297 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Take2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Sep 2019 at 11:38am
another record of bets using the criteria above during the autumn this year with a different profit req hence bigger outlay

winner rated under 10$ Date Track race No ttl bets winner Name TAB odds bank Bet Ttl Out bank Ret Bank rank takeout
y 230219 cau 1 2   sikandhrabad 3.3 2000 156 464 1536 514.8 2050.8 1  
n 230219 ros 1 0 nil 0 2050.8 0 170 1880.8 0 1880.8
y 230219 cau 2 9   global exchange 16 1880.8 125 492 1388.8 2000 3388.8 2  
y 230219 ros 2 1   time to reign 12 3388.8 108 577 2811.8 1296 4107.8 2  
n 230219 cau 3 0 nil 0 4107.8 0 341 3766.8 0 3766.8
y 230219 ros 3 7   arcademus 4.4 3766.8 50 122 3644.8 220 3864.8 1  
n 230219 cau 4 0 nil 0 3864.8 221 3643.8 0 3643.8
y 230219 ros 4 7   seaway 2.4 3643.8 150 248 3395.8 360 3755.8 1  
n 230219 cau 5 0 nil 0 3755.8 162 199 3556.8 0 3556.8
y 230219 ros 5 1   the autumn sun 1.6 3556.8 173 174 3382.8 276.8 3659.6 1
y 230219 cau 6 11   alizee16 2.1 3659.6 0 157 3502.6 0 3502.6 1  
y 230219 ros 6 0 nil 0 3502.6 0 199 3303.6 0 3303.6
n 230219 cau 7 0 nil 0 3303.6 0 94 3209.6 0 3209.6
n 230219 ros 7 0 nil 0 3209.6 0 135 3074.6 0 3074.6
n 230219 cau 8 0 nil 0 3074.6 0 67 3007.6 0 3007.6
n 230219 ros 8 0 nil 0 3007.6 0 169 2838.6 0 2838.6
y 230219 cau 9 8   avilius 2.5 2838.6 65 142 2696.6 162.5 2859.1 1  
y 230219 ros 9 13   malahat 9 2859.1   134 2725.1 0 2725.1 3
y 20319 flem 8 15 mystic journey 5.5 2725.1 43 132 2593.1 236.5 2829.6 2
y 90319 flem  1 6 4 superhard 13 2829.6 73 182 2647.6 949 3596.6 3
n ran 1 0 3 nil 0 3596.6 0 150 3446.6 0 3446.6
y   flem 2 10 3 simply invincible 13 3446.6 28 100 3346.6 364 3710.6 4
y   ran 2 12 4 profits thumb 13.5 3710.6 45 240 3470.6 607.5 4078.1 4
y flem 3 0 4 nil 0 4078.1 0 63 4015.1 0 4015.1
n ran 3 0 2 nil 0 4015.1 0 162 3853.1 0 3853.1
y   flem 4 4 2 anjana 9.8 3853.1 65 113 3740.1 637 4377.1 1
n ran 4 0 3 nil 0 4377.1 0 117 4260.1 0 4260.1
y   flem 5 10 5 la tene 15 4260.1 33 252 4008.1 495 4503.1 5
n ran 5 0 2 nil 0 4503.1 0 132 4371.1 0 4371.1
n flem 6 0 2 nil 0 4371.1 0 80 4291.1 0 4291.1
y ran 6 0 2 nil 0 4291.1 0 100 4191.1 0 4191.1
n flem 7 0 3 nil 0 4191.1 0 203 3988.1 0 3988.1
y ran 7 0 3 nil 0 3988.1 0 144 3844.1 0 3844.1
n flem 8 0 4 nil 0 3844.1 0 274 3570.1 0 3570.1
y ran 8 0 2 nil 0 3570.1 0 64 3506.1 0 3506.1
y flem 9 0 2 nil 0 3506.1 0 197 3309.1 0 3309.1
n ran 9 0 4 nil 0 3309.1 0 121 3188.1 0 3188.1
y 100319 stcreek 3 3 2 chattering 6.4 3188.1 46 132 3056.1 294.4 3350.5 2
n echuca 3 0 2 nil 9 3350.5 0 244 3106.5 0 3106.5
y sc 4 0 2 nil 0 3106.5 0 202 2904.5 0 2904.5
y echuca 4 7 3 mitrust 5.5 2904.5 102 360 2544.5 561 3105.5 3
n sc 5 0 3 nil 0 3105.5 0 167 2938.5 0 2938.5
y echuca 5 0 2 nil 2938.5 124 2814.5 0 2814.5
y sc 6 0 3 mr charisma 5.8 2814.5 100 335 2479.5 580 3059.5 4
n echuca 6 0 2 nil 3059.5 190 2869.5 0 2869.5
y sc 7 0 2 nil 0 2869.5 0 160 2709.5 0 2709.5
y echuca 7 4 4 heptagon 2.7 2709.5 187 428 2281.5 504.9 2786.4 1
y sc 8 7 3 cilauro 5.5 2786.4 244 463 2323.4 1342 3665.4 1
n echuca 8 0 4 nil 0 3665.4 0 229 3436.4 0 3436.4
n 110318 morph 1 0 4 nil 0 3436.4 0 185 3251.4 0 3251.4
n 110318 morph 2 nil 8.5 3251.4 223 3028.4 0 3028.4
y 110318 morph 3 5 4 messerschmitt 8.5 3028.4 160 247 2781.4 1360 4141.4 1
y 110318 morph 4 9 4 done by me 12 4141.4 100 445 3696.4 1200 4896.4 3
y 110318 hawk 4 2 4 phuket 4.5 4896.4 82 178 4718.4 369 5087.4 1
                              2000
n 110318 morph 5 0 2 nil 0 3087.4 0 217 2870.4 0 2870.4
n 110318 hawk 5 0 2 nil 0 2870.4 0 372 2498.4 0 2498.4
y 110318 ball 5 4 4 gaelic dream 6.9 2498.4 84 397 2101.4 579.6 2681 3
n 110318 morph 6 0 2 nil 0 2681 0 243 2438 0 2438
y 110318 hawk 6 8 3 nitride 34 2438 59 153 2285 2006 4291 1
n 110318 ball 6 0 2 nil 0 4291 0 362 3929 0 3929
n 110318 morph 7 0 0 nil 0 3929 0 354 3575 0 3575
y 110318 hawk 7 1 2 onthetake 4.6 3575 502 756 2819 2309.2 5128.2 1
                              2000
y 110318 ball 7 0 3 nil 0 3128.2 0 126 3002.2 0 3002.2
y 110318 morph 8 0 0 snitzkraft 6.5 3002.2 65 238 2764.2 422.5 3186.7 2
n 110318 ball 8 0 0 nil 0 3186.7 0 243 2943.7 0 2943.7
n 110318 morph 9 0 0 nil 4.6 2943.7 0 177 2766.7 0 2766.7
y 2203 mv 5 4 0 nil 0 2766.7 0 200 2566.7 0 2566.7
n 2203 mv 6 5 1 nil 0 2566.7 0 70 2496.7 0 2496.7
y 2203 mv 7 7 1 nil 0 2496.7 0 83 2413.7 0 2413.7
y 2203 mv 8 3 1 consensus 33 2413.7 27 27 2386.7 891 3277.7 2
n 2303 ros 1 0 2 nil 0 3277.7 0 243 3034.7 0 3034.7
n 2303 ros 2 0 3 nil 0 3034.7 0 333 2701.7 0 2701.7
y 2303 ros 3 6 2 midterm 6 2701.7 190 357 2344.7 1140 3484.7 1
y 2303 ros 4 1 2 the autumn sun 1.4 3484.7 84 84 3400.7 117.6 3518.3 1
y 2303 ros 5 1 1 nil 3518.3 0 0 3518.3 0 3518.3
y 2303 ros 6 0 nil 3518.3 290 3228.3 0 3228.3
y 2303 ros 7 12 kiamarchi 34 3228.3 36 363 2865.3 1224 4089.3 2
y 2303 morn 7 7 3 self sense 12 4089.3 77 162 3927.3 924 4851.3 2
n 2303 ros 8 12 4 nil 0 4851.3 0 363 4488.3 0 4488.3
n 2303 morn 8 nil 4488.3 119 4369.3 0 4369.3
y 2303 ros 9 8 3 sempari 5.5 4369.3 55 175 4194.3 302.5 4496.8 3
n 2303 morn 9 nil 4496.8 270 4226.8 0 4226.8
y 2403 ball 5 1 4 ben hercules 9 4226.8 168 526 3700.8 1512 5212.8 4
                              2000
y 2403 ball 6 1 4 greycliffe 14 3212.8 33 178 3034.8 462 3496.8 3
y 2403 ball 7 0 2 nil 0 3496.8 0 54 3442.8 0 3442.8
y 2403 ball 8 8 2 nil 0 3442.8 0 40 3402.8 0 3402.8
n 2703 wf 4 0 3 nil 0 3402.8 0 371 3031.8 0 3031.8
y 2703 wf 5 9 4 free fly too 16 3031.8 92 422 2609.8 1472 4081.8 4
n 2703 wf 6 0 3 nil 0 4081.8 0 328 3753.8 0 3753.8
y 2703 sand 4 0 4 nil 0 3753.8 0 78.5 3675.3 0 3675.3
y 2703 wf 7 0 4 nil 0 3675.3 0 254.5 3420.8 0 3420.8
n 2703 sand 5 0 3 nil 0 3420.8 0 263 3157.8 0 3157.8
n 2703 wf 8 0 3 nil 0 3157.8 0 159 2998.8 0 2998.8
y 2703 sand 6 10 4 manning road 10 2998.8 36.6 150 2848.8 366 3214.8 2
y 2703 sand 7 3 5 chavuma 71 3214.8 38 231 2983.8 2698 5681.8 2
                              2000
n 2703 sand 8 0 3 nil 0 3681.8 0 218 3463.8 0 3463.8
n 2703 pak 4 0 2 nil 0 3463.8 0 155 3308.8 0 3308.8
n 2703 pak 5 0 3 nil 0 3308.8 0 323 2985.8 0 2985.8
n 2703 pak 6 0 2 nil 0 2985.8 0 101 2884.8 0 2884.8
y 2703 pak 7 4 4 a riel reward 6.5 2884.8 64 306 2578.8 416 2994.8 3
y 2703 pak 8 6 1 a fighting fury 9 2994.8 56 56 2938.8 504 3442.8 1
y 3003 ros 1 0 3 nil 0 3442.8 0 232 3210.8 0 3210.8
n 3003 ros 2 0 3 nil 0 3210.8 0 371 2839.8 0 2839.8
n 3003 ros 3 0 0 nil 2839.8 0 347 2492.8 0 2492.8
y 3003 ros 4 8 2 invincible gem 21 2492.8 87 221 2271.8 1827 4098.8 2
n 3003 ros 5 0 3 nil 0 4098.8 0 188 3910.8 0 3910.8
y 3003 ros 6 3 3 veery eleegant 12 3910.8 147 247 3663.8 1764 5427.8 1
                              2000
n 3003 ben 7 0 3 nil 0 3427.8 148 3279.8 0 3279.8
y 3003 ros 7 6 1 avilius 2.15 3279.8 168 168 3111.8 361.2 3473 1
y 3003 ben 8 16 3 mystery love 6.5 3473 48 221 3252 312 3564 3
n 3003 morph 6 0 3 nil 3564 0 167 3397 0 3397
y 3003 ros 8 1 4 mr sea wolf  17 3397 64 433 2964 1088 4052 4
n 3003 morph 7 2 nil 4052 249 3803 0 3803
n 3003 ros 9 0 2 nil 3803 166 3637 0 3637 4
y 30419 sand 4 5 1 high ratio 5.5 3637 111 111 3526 610.5 4136.5 1
y sand 5 8 3 future score 5.5 4136.5 111 223 3913.5 610.5 4524 1
n sand 6 nil 0 4524 0 229 4295 0 4295
y sand 7 royal thunder 15 4295 42 163 4132 630 4762 2
n sand 8 nil 0 4762 0 216 4546 0 4546
n rand 4 nil 0 4546 0 206 4340 0 4340
n rand 5 nil 0 4340 0 265 4075 0 4075
n rand 6 nil 0 4075 0 22 4053 0 4053
n rand 7 nil 0 4053 0 178 3875 0 3875
n rand 8 nil 0 3875 0 2.3 3872.7 0 3872.7
y 60419 rand 2 0 0 nil 0 3872.7 0 115 3757.7 0 3757.7
n rand 3 2 12 aliferous 54 3757.7 30 129 3628.7 1620 5248.7 2
                              2000
n rand 4 2 0 nil 0 3248.7 0 34 3214.7 0 3214.7
n rand 5 3214.7 84 3130.7 0 3130.7
n cau 5 3130.7 3130.7 0 3130.7
y rand 6 microphone 6 3130.7 142 384 2746.7 852 3598.7 1
y cau 6 2 5 mzelle tess 13 3598.7 35 125 3473.7 455 3928.7 3
y rand 7 3 11 angel of truth 18 3928.7 60 208 3720.7 1080 4800.7 2
y cau 7 2 bandipur 7.5 4800.7 75 103 4697.7 562.5 5260.2 1
                              2000
n rand 8 2 0 nil 0 3260.2 0 182 3078.2 0 3078.2 0
n cau 8 3 13 naantali 9.3 3078.2 27 107 2971.2 251.1 3222.3 4
n ran 9 4 20 brutal 7 3222.3 62 203 3019.3 434 3453.3 1
n cau 9 3 0 nil 0 3453.3 0 100 3353.3 0 3353.3
n ran 10 3 12 muntaja 8.5 3353.3 60 110 3243.3 510 3753.3 1
  0
5232.6 28891.3 44644.6 14000
out in takeout
change is simply a destination on a journey reached by taking the first step (i said that) lol

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