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Rusty101 View Drop Down
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Originally posted by 3blindmice 3blindmice wrote:

Originally posted by Rusty101 Rusty101 wrote:


Glad you're not my betting advisor Rusty. The handicapper rated them both 115 in the Futurity, and Humidor has a much higher recent peak as we know. TS flopped in the same race last year (against another stablemate who loved Flemington), Humidor was impressive in the Makybe Diva. The only way TS was walloping Humidor at WFA was if Humidor had a bad day - like TS did on Sat.

I don't know 3bm...I would have advised you to sell your TS ticket 2 min b4 the jump, that's gotta count for something LOL

There's no exact science but I liken it to say Shaftesbury going up against Super yesterday, Shaftesbury just demolishes the great backmarker in that scenario, however, next time they meet in a similarly hot contested field of 12 runners as that of Humidor's Makybe Diva stakes win, Super gets his chance to turn the tables.
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djebel View Drop Down
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Originally posted by Carioca Carioca wrote:

Originally posted by djebel djebel wrote:

Originally posted by Carioca Carioca wrote:

Please read the question that was asked of me again, I sent that one back to the bowler, I put in the problems I saw fwiw, can't be more fairer than that.


You are seeing problems.

Weir is not seeing problems.

If there are problems Weir is not admitting to them.



And you my friend with your unorthodox way of asking questions of me about a trainer I know nothing about are fishing, for all I know the trainer has admitted Nothing and why should he , the jockey stated " the next 24hours may bring something out, for the second time, they Are my opinions on this old horse and reasons why his form is in and out,
Capisce!

I apologise if my articulations gives the impression I am fishing, I can promise you I was not except to say I wanted your opinion on what you thought was wrong. I know you have a lot of knowledge on these issues and I respect that, I hope I have not indicated otherwise elsewhere.
reductio ad absurdum
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Your apology is accepted my friend, it was all trivial,...about the size of the pea I just swallowed.
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3blindmice View Drop Down
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Originally posted by djebel djebel wrote:

Originally posted by 3blindmice 3blindmice wrote:

That somewhere would be the Cox Plate where he ran the World Champ to a half length or so.

Between the Cox Plate and his first up run this time in he has dropped 7 points/lbs, This just does not happen.



So are you saying that a fourth placing in the Futurity should be roughly equivalent to his run in the Cox Plate or that the handicapper has underrated him (dropped him too quickly) at 115? 
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djebel View Drop Down
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Originally posted by 3blindmice 3blindmice wrote:

Originally posted by djebel djebel wrote:

Originally posted by 3blindmice 3blindmice wrote:

That somewhere would be the Cox Plate where he ran the World Champ to a half length or so.

Between the Cox Plate and his first up run this time in he has dropped 7 points/lbs, This just does not happen.



So are you saying that a fourth placing in the Futurity should be roughly equivalent to his run in the Cox Plate or that the handicapper has underrated him (dropped him too quickly) at 115? 

The "rating" we see in the form guide is not a rating for that race alone, it is their new or stable handicap benchmark.

If he was given 122 for his Cox Plate effort that should have been reflected in field/form for his first run back in the Futurity. 

Race 6 - 3:25PM italktravel Futurity Stakes (1400 METRES) Times displayed in local time of Race Meeting
Of $500,000.1st $300,000, 2nd $90,000, 3rd $45,000, 4th $22,500, 5th $12,500, 6th $10,000, 7th $10,000, 8th $10,000
Prize money contribution totalling 2% will be directed to jockey and equine welfare prior to distribution GROUP 1
Standard Weight for Age, Three-Years-Old and Upwards, Apprentices cannot claim.

Track Name: Main Track Type: Turf Track Condition: Good 4 

Field Limit: 16 + 4 EM    NOMINATIONS EXTENDED TO: 20/02/2018 10:00:00 AM

NoLast 10HorseTrainerJockeyBarrierWeightPenaltyHcp Rating
12x536181x0TOSEN STARDOM (JPN)Darren WeirBen Allen (a)559kg
115
22x6813520xHUMIDOR (NZ)Darren WeirDamian Lane259kg
115
344x2123x53BRAVE SMASH (JPN)Darren WeirCraig Williams959kg
108
4415x66x165LORD OF THE SKYRobbie LaingDamien Oliver759kg
106
5x15314270xSOVEREIGN NATIONDavid & B Hayes & T DabernigRegan Bayliss459kg
100
611x1220x28MR SNEAKYAnthony FreedmanMark Zahra859kg
100
76822063x34WYNDSPELLE (NZ)Michael KentBeau Mertens659kg
98
8173x54630xSNITZSONDavid & B Hayes & T DabernigKerrin McEvoy159kg
98
94010x731x0SHILLELAGH (NZ)Chris WallerMichael Dee1157kg
110
100x12741x7MIGHTY BOSSMick PriceMichael Walker355.5kg
105
1142x21510x2SHOWTIMEMichael, Wayne & John HawkesDwayne Dunn1055.5kg
92
reductio ad absurdum
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3blindmice View Drop Down
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Okay understand. But he only got a 114 for his run in the Melb Cup. 
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djebel View Drop Down
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Originally posted by 3blindmice 3blindmice wrote:

Okay understand. But he only got a 114 for his run in the Melb Cup. 

That is why I think that he ever actually got 122. It just does not fathom. 

Winx has got to 132 and stayed there as though she can not go any higher.  She has been 132 for 10 starts. 

Strangely Black Caviar got 130 and stayed on that mark for her final 8 starts.........
reductio ad absurdum
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djebel View Drop Down
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Originally posted by djebel djebel wrote:

Originally posted by 3blindmice 3blindmice wrote:

Okay understand. But he only got a 114 for his run in the Melb Cup. 

That is why I think that he NEVER actually got 122. It just does not fathom. 

Winx has got to 132 and stayed there as though she can not go any higher.  She has been 132 for 10 starts. 

Strangely Black Caviar got 130 and stayed on that mark for her final 8 starts.........
reductio ad absurdum
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speedingaway View Drop Down
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Points: 632 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote speedingaway Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Mar 2018 at 9:15pm
Djebel, they used the international ratings for the Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup in the racebook. For some reason they've been carried over onto Racing Australia. That's not their Victorian handicap rating.
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djebel View Drop Down
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reductio ad absurdum
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3blindmice View Drop Down
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This appears to confirm that but also further muddies the waters. Even ignoring the track record Humidor couldn't possibly have rated as low as ~115 behind Winx in our premier middle distance WFA race. As many have said (in different words) - I call ratings bullgelati.
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Sunline View Drop Down
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Everything from Timeform to the handicapper ratings are nothing but FAKE NEWS!
Sunline...simply supreme
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maccamax View Drop Down
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Originally posted by Sunline Sunline wrote:

Everything from Timeform to the handicapper ratings are nothing but FAKE NEWS!


Purely a simple opinion of various factors put to your chosen number.

Forgetting weight limits ,      As Cliff Carey claimed many years ago there is approx 3K ( 7lbs ) between the various race classes.

The lowest being a maiden 3K and highest Open G1. 21K.   the individual doing the Rating has the duty to decide if the race being rated is any figure 2K below or 2K above the allotted class Figure . Or any number between.
   Let say a weak maiden at Bathurst would have to be considered 2K below so the rating is 1K plus weight carried is your basic rating for next run.
( less weight allotted )
Winx beat Humidor in a WFA Class 21 , broke course record , I consider that as worth a 1 K bonus rating Winx 22K plus weight over 57= 79
Humidor 22 less>.5 beaten margin = 21.5 plus weight carried 59 = 80.5

On Saturday Humidor wins ordinary GR2 rates 20 less 2K I penalise class =18
plus weight carried 59 = Rating 77

Like all other variables Rated ..    They are purely the individuals opinion and the method by which we get used to over a lifetime of form assessment.        .   If it works don't fix it.

The main thing we all need to fix is Money Management IMHO ...    We can all pick winners ( sometimes )    
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3blindmice View Drop Down
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Originally posted by Sunline Sunline wrote:

Everything from Timeform to the handicapper ratings are nothing but FAKE NEWS!

Lol Sunline, I wouldn't go that far. The black arts are a useful guide and of general interest but obviously far too flawed to be taken without a grain of salt (and a few eyes of newt) imo. The anomalies seem to become more apparent with time - as some TBV contributors have noted many times in regard to historic Australian TF numbers. One piece of the big racing puzzle.

I know tracks and equipment have changed but I still can't get my head around how much standardbreds seem to have progressed compared to tbreds. The times pacers run these days are amazing.
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maccamax View Drop Down
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Pacers have never been my go ---   3 back the rails is where Mine are after 100m.     Times have improved in all racing areas over the years .

Ok to watch if "Allo Allo" isn't on,   but pacers / trots do nothing for me.

One question :   How do Racing Handicappers allot weights if they don't have a ratings System for every contender.
    
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Tlazolteotl View Drop Down
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Humidor's run was nothing special. Tosen ran a shocker and Humidor ran down Cool Chap in the shadows of the post. It was the type of race Winx would have won by 8 lengths.
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Rusty101 View Drop Down
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I'm betting if Weir had Winx, Humidor still wins Tlaz.....
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Originally posted by Tlazolteotl Tlazolteotl wrote:

Humidor's run was nothing special. Tosen ran a shocker and Humidor ran down Cool Chap in the shadows of the post. It was the type of race Winx would have won by 8 lengths.


Yes Tiaz and penalised = down 2K in class assessment.     If Humidor races "true " it wins easily too but is as erratic as they come.
The very slow early pace contributed to the leaders doing better than expected , bought Tosen Stardum undone and added to the merit of Humidor's last to first , against the sectionals.
Don't be surprised if Humidor is very competitive come Doncaster day ( If he races true of course)
   The Ratings numbers had Redkirk Warrior clearly on top in the Newmarket despite a few appearing to be getting in light.    He also dropped in weight on his defeat of Redzel ,on his fav. course and had the perfect draw.
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The prize is crazy, take it
"Go Hard or Go Home”
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Retired
"Go Hard or Go Home”
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He's got the " Moodie Blues".
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He will have a good career at stud
"Go Hard or Go Home”
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