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Creating your own longshots |
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oneonesit
Champion Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Offline Points: 37210 |
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G1 I will have another crack at trying to explain the inherent mathematical disadvantage of multi betting...& so by using an example. Lets assume you have a single bet & the book is set at 110%...that is there is a 10% to the house. If I now take a multi with all legs betting into markets with the same 10% edge the following %'s to the house applies ; (using formula ; house % times house % times house % (for every leg) times 100 - 100 ) 1 leg...10% 2 legs..21% 3 legs..33.1% 4 legs..46.4% Betting into a book with a 15% edge(similar to TAB W/P pools) it is even more dramatic ; 1 leg..15% 2 legs..32% 3 legs..52% 4 legs..74% Hope this gives you some idea why multi betting gives the average punter little chance of winning long-term |
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Brosco
Yearling Joined: 31 Oct 2011 Status: Offline Points: 126 |
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Your mathematics show why one doesn't get the best return for the investment. If we are going to refuse to bet when we don't get an edge, then I guess we stop punting altogether except on two-up on Anzac Day.
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Brosco
Yearling Joined: 31 Oct 2011 Status: Offline Points: 126 |
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sorry, that came out wrong.
No edge in Two-Up, but at least there is no house take-out. So uis this the only place to bet? The important point is that we are stuck with bookies in any form will take a %age - we have to live with that. The mathematics above work exactly the same with single bets. Lets take a simple ROI example and FOLLOW closely where the bets come from. NOW - lets say I have a $10 bet at $2.00 and it wins. And wow - it wins and I get a return of $20.00 - but according to oneonesit I have been ripped off and should have got $21.00 That means when I have my next bet of $10 I am disadvantaged because I should have only needed to bet $9 for a far return. The point is, the tab/bookie takeout is the same whether its a single bet or a multi.
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oneonesit
Champion Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Offline Points: 37210 |
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Brosco...my post was specifically aimed at Group 1...as he specifically asked earlier if I could explain decreased %'s that go hand in hand with multi punting. I also knew you had no "real" desire to try to understand it...a mind as flexible as a piece of redwood...so forget about my explanation & just keep doing what you want to do. If it works for you just keep doing it...! If its all about the big win & not the %'s try Lotto / Powerball / Lotteries...right up your alley I would have thought ! |
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oneonesit
Champion Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Offline Points: 37210 |
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& no..you just don't get it...the take out rates are much higher (number of legs dependent) with multi's vs. single bets...how often do I have to say it ! |
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Brosco
Yearling Joined: 31 Oct 2011 Status: Offline Points: 126 |
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oneonesit please try to grow up and enter an ADULT conversation.
I will try to explain it very simply for you. Lets assume I have $10 in my betting account. I place this on a $2.00 shot and it wins - I now have $20 in my account. My next bet is $10 on another $2.00 shot. The REALITY is, instead of an ALL-UP, I have just placed a HALF-UP. The multiplication of bookie takeouts applies EXACTLY the same as in your previous post! It aint rocket science
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oneonesit
Champion Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Offline Points: 37210 |
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You are trying to compare apples with bananas Brosco....this is what you need to compare....lets have $30 in your account & say 3 selections in 3 different races ; Scenario 1 Multi $30 on first all-up 2nd & all-up 3rd Scenario 2 $10 on first / $10 on 2nd / $10 on 3rd - all single bets Scenario 2 will result in a long-term better return ! |
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Brosco
Yearling Joined: 31 Oct 2011 Status: Offline Points: 126 |
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While I understand the individual points you have made in the previous posts and somewhat agree with what you are saying however, I do no comprehend your quantum leap to the conclusion that:
Surely the best return will be determined by Strike Rate and Price of selections. For extreme examples: a 100% strike rate would put Scenario 1 miles in front. a 20% strike rate would put both scenarios losing, unless good priced selections got up. Regardless, Scenario 2 would lose less than scenario 1. Somewhere in between these 2 strike rates is where highest profit (or least lost) moves from scenario 1 to scenario 2. My mathematical ability on probability theory is not strong enough to calculate the cross over point, but I would guess its around the 50% strike rate point. However, at this point, I would suggest that parlays that include doubles (not just the Allup), Scenario 1 would be in front, and the strike rate could possibly drop to 40% to find the 'equal point'. Again its more complicated than that, because the prices of the winning selections will affect the outcome enormously. Now to the
You make a big point that in an allup, the bookie takeout is compounded with each leg. (absolutely no argument there). But how is this any different to ANY turnaround of the balance in my account? My account balance has little to do with my initial deposit - it is based on turning around my winning bet dividends and placing more bets from the balance (after more bookie takeouts). How is that any different to an allup - i use money that has had a bookie takeout, and if it wins, use that to place a subsequent bet (which incurs a subsequent bookie takeout (assuming it wins). The same 'law of diminishing returns' that oneonesit says will lead to my downfall, therefore applies to ALL punters. So while i can understand oneonesit's individual points - I have no comprehension of his quantum leaps to totally unrelated conclusions. |
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Whale
Champion Joined: 01 Jun 2009 Location: St Kilda Beach Status: Offline Points: 38719 |
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completely different bets . say odds are $5, take out 15% $10 on each race if all successful returns 3 times $42.50 = $127.50 $30 all up with same odds and takeout returns $$2303 $10 all up returns $767 I think you have your apples and banans mixed up oneone |
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Mayor
Admin Group Joined: 15 Feb 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 3389 |
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Villagebet identified Samadoubt as a Lucky Longshot at Randwick yesterday. Won the Winx Stakes at $41.
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Mayor
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Mayor
Admin Group Joined: 15 Feb 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 3389 |
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Anyone got one for today?
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Mayor
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Gay3
Moderator Group Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Location: Miners Rest Status: Offline Points: 52012 |
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Check the Rough as Gutz thread.
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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
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Mayor
Admin Group Joined: 15 Feb 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 3389 |
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We have an article on villagebet.com.au for those interested in betting on longshots: |
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max manewer
Champion Joined: 30 Jan 2010 Status: Offline Points: 32947 |
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It is seemingly a necessary, but not sufficient condition, to be backing longshots, that they shorten, or at least remain steady in the market.
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