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Hypothetical Matings

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Sister Dot View Drop Down
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    Posted: 22 Nov 2023 at 8:38pm
As a novice to bloodline analysis , this looks impressive to me. Can someone please educate me whether it is, or is not? 
“Where in this wide world can man find nobility without pride, friendship without envy, or beauty without vanity? Here where grace is laced with muscle and strength by gentleness confined”
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote diomed Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Nov 2023 at 11:55pm
I see nothing in the pedigree that is favourable.
The inbreeding in not inbreeding as in each case the duplications are on one side of the pedigree only.
If you extend the pedigree to six generations there is inbreeding: two daughters (Celtic Assembly; Sister Dot) of Secretariat (m) and three sons (Danzig; Danzig; Vice Regent) of Northern Dancer (m).  Three sons of a sire is a negative, or at best no effect.

In work I did in Jan/Feb 2017 it seems to me that one-sided duplications contribute little or nothing.  In the above pedigree the one-sided are: Green Dancer; Mr Prospector.

On the left of this grid is the counts of one-sided duplications of duplicated sires (dams not shown).
At this stage I am not sure why the data shows counts of one but it might be that I took sire+dam (not the horse name itself) as the unit and the other sire+dam could be female (i.e. a full sibling, and female).

You can see there are almost nil increases (or decreases) in average ratings of the runners for increases in the counts (1 to 19) of one-sided duplications i.e. they have no effect on ratings.

colts colts geldings geldings fillies fillies
occur s_one count s_one count s_one count
0 93.45 5702 74.77 9094 74.55 12197
1 94.27 2080 75.12 2728 75.47 3807
2 93.20 8303 74.38 13001 74.60 17531
3 93.98 3183 74.98 4163 74.86 6079
4 93.74 6597 74.46 9151 74.14 12919
5 94.98 2745 74.31 3330 74.25 5000
6 94.32 3441 73.95 4357 74.27 6364
7 93.71 1712 73.76 1619 74.13 2764
8 94.14 1441 73.81 1508 74.05 2421
9 94.33 759 73.48 644 74.30 1167
10 93.95 519 72.36 412 72.68 801
11 92.33 278 75.04 191 74.10 382
12 95.53 147 77.44 79 71.05 204
13 94.12 83 74.48 48 72.53 93
14 93.08 40 66.50 4 66.96 55
15 81.29 14 68.00 4 62.13 32
16 76.43 7 85.00 1 61.60 10
17 85.00 2     67.25 4
18 113.50 2 109.00 1    
19 84.50 2        
20            
foalmare.com - my thoughts about pedigree
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Sister Dot Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Nov 2023 at 5:04am
There’s a lot to be learnt, and a lot of money to be saved, taa Diomed
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Nov 2023 at 7:48am
Apart from the inbreeding/linebreeding you have to go back a lot of generations to find a mare by a breedshaping stallion Hyperion.
reductio ad absurdum
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote diomed Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Nov 2023 at 9:04pm
If you have many one sided duplications they lessen the number of ancestors available for inbreeding and an impression I have is this may have a slight negative effect.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sister Dot Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Nov 2023 at 8:12am
“Where in this wide world can man find nobility without pride, friendship without envy, or beauty without vanity? Here where grace is laced with muscle and strength by gentleness confined”
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sister Dot Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Nov 2023 at 8:14am
This mare did not click with Excelebration, but did a lot better with Deep Field
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote furious Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Nov 2023 at 10:45am
On the one sided inbreeding.  If it happens hope for a mare inbreeding.  A mare inbreed to a great mare etc or even a stallion seems to carry that reinforcement into the next pedigree.  If you look at some of our biggest stallions Star Kingdom, Sir Tristram and Danehill they are had that behind them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Kimberley Mine Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Nov 2023 at 2:35pm
So I see what you are trying to do, both with Wolf Cry and with Hellbent.


And here is a horse for sale out of Wild Hostess' half-sister by Tale of the Cat: https://inglisdigital.com/lot/30000155.27.htm

Based on Wild Hostess' production record and that of her half-siblings, I would not describe her as a middle-distance mare.  

IMO the reason the Deep Field mating was successful and the Excelebration was not is all about Mr. Prospector....specifically through Fappiano (Roy & Explosive) and sons of Mr. Prospector with the Rough Shod II family (Geiger Counter, Northern Meteor).  For that matter, Hussonet is a son of Mr. Prospector out of a Bold Ruler-line mare, as is Elusive Quality's sire Gone West (more on him in a minute).

With Deep Field, adding more Mr Prospector has been reasonably successful given opportunity -- Aysar & Master Hunter (Flying Spur), Isotope (Xaar), Hawker Hurricane (Fappiano via Bernardini), Chat (End Sweep), Aheadofhistime (Jade Robbery), Durham Star (Geiger Counter), Mr Mojo Rising (Bahhare).  Not all of the horses I listed are stakes winners, but they've run out at least $100k on the track which is a good general level of talent.  Sending Wild Hostess to him worked well enough to get a horse who is has won or placed in 40% of her starts so far.  

Back to Gone West.  Linebreeding to Secretariat has been tried a LOT, especially in North America where Storm Cat, AP Indy, and Gone West all stood at more-or-less the same time and their daughters all took turns going to one or the other.  The one that was most successful?  Gone West with another line of Secretariat.  His racetrack champion son Speightstown is also a very successful sire.  Violence, by Medaglia d'Oro out of a Gone West mare, has two Gr-1 winners out of Storm Cat-line mares.  Wootton Bassett, Gr-1 winner and now high-quality stallion, is from the Gone West sireline and his 2nd dam is Chief's Crown, who is out of a Secretariat mare.  

Elusive Quality, who is by Gone West and who is Deep Field's broodmare sire, didn't see many mares with Secretariat up close himself, but his best son Quality Road is racking up champions out of mares by Bernardini (AP Indy), Dehere, Hennessy (Storm Cat), and Malibu Moon (AP Indy). Elusive City, another high-class son, is the broodmare sire of Wooded, Beat le Bon, and Bucanero Fuerte, all by Wootton Bassett out of the same mare.

All of this is a long way to say, look for patterns and go with what works.  In your mare's case, Deep Field worked, and your mare's breeding worked for Deep Field.  His brother Shooting to Win and son Aysar are both in WA (which may or may not help you).  His son Cosmic Force is at Newgate for $11,000 and his first foals are running now.  Portland Sky is at Widden, but at $22k may be too much for this mare.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sister Dot Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Dec 2023 at 11:16am
Thanks KM, it’s very interesting and informative reading. We chose from DF and STW initially, I preferred the DF foals on the ground as they were much stronger types. 
Her dam Djel D’Amour is by Dehere, so sounds like she SHOULD be going to Quality Road @$200,000 LOL
WH’s racing career was ordinary, but, on her behalf she should have won a few more. Usual hard luck stories Wink 
Wild Hostess had a very handy half brother called Southern Shimmer, who I named her filly after. 

“Where in this wide world can man find nobility without pride, friendship without envy, or beauty without vanity? Here where grace is laced with muscle and strength by gentleness confined”
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