9% Min. MM GC 2023 bred to stay 8f+

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Topic: 9% Min. MM GC 2023 bred to stay 8f+
Posted: 19 Dec 2022 at 4:54pm

Edited by Gay3 - 09 Jan 2023 at 4:21pm

reductio ad absurdum

djebel

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Posted: 19 Dec 2022 at 4:55pm

Hopefully that is readable.

reductio ad absurdum

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Posted: 19 Dec 2022 at 5:06pm

Sorry that it isn't djebel, and even so a cursory look and the sire/dam detail alone doesn't necessarily tell the whole story. That said it's entirely probable that the percentage you quote is about right.

In Australia Inglis Easter is the best place to find a decent middle distance/staying type, with Melbourne Premier next cab off the rank. But even then a clear majority are perennially sprinter/miler types.

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Posted: 19 Dec 2022 at 5:09pm

I actually have a long list of over 300 lots that I believe would be 1600m+ racehorses from the Magic Millions catalogue for this season.

reductio ad absurdum

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Posted: 19 Dec 2022 at 5:40pm

25% of the catalogue? Who am I to disagree.

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Posted: 19 Dec 2022 at 5:43pm

You are Second Chance, It is your job to disagree.

Hopefully Inglis will have a similar search function to look for Dam sires.

Edited by djebel - 19 Dec 2022 at 5:44pm

reductio ad absurdum

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Posted: 19 Dec 2022 at 6:48pm

Topic: "9% At Least of MM bred to stay 8f+" Says who or what authority? Confused

Unless they'd done thorough DNA, muscle twitch & blood profiling tests, I wouldn't believe a word of it!
E.g. Subzero for one was bought on his pedigree, specifically to sprint but profiling said otherwise, as has been the case of many good horses (anecdotally as per trainer statements to media) & vice versa.

It takes a wise man a lifetime to grow a tree and a fool five minutes to kill one.

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Posted: 19 Dec 2022 at 7:10pm

Says me, On my authority.

Subzero was an aberration, You have to keep going back 35 years for an example. His sire was bred to be a classic horse.

Australia is the only place where trainers take little notice of the pedigree.

If they see speed they do not allow a horse to stay beyond a mile.

The Freedmans had Confederate Lady and Marscay in mind when they bought Subzero.

SUBZERO (AUS)

Grey gelding 1988

Kala Dancer Grey 1982	Niniski Bay 1976	Nijinsky Bay 1967	Northern Dancer Bay 1961	Nearctic Natalma	1954 1957	14-c 2-d
		Nijinsky Bay 1967	Flaming Page Bay 1959	Bull Page Flaring Top	1947 1947	4-m 8-f
		Virginia Hills Bay 1971	Tom Rolfe Bay 1962	Ribot Pocahontas	1952 1955	4-l 9-h
		Virginia Hills Bay 1971	Ridin' Easy Chestnut 1967	Ridan Easy Eight	1959 1954	5-h 16-b
	Kalazero Grey 1976	Kalamoun Grey 1970	Zeddaan Grey 1965	Grey Sovereign Vareta	1948 1953	6-f 11-g
		Kalamoun Grey 1970	Khairunissa Grey 1960	Prince Bio Palariva	1941 1953	1-d 9-c
		Roulette Brown 1969	Blauer Reiter 1961	Birkhahn Blaue Grotte	1945 1944	1-j 6-e
		Roulette Brown 1969	Rah Chestnut 1958	Tudor Minstrel Rose of Doncaster	1944 1954	9-c 19>
Wiley Trade Bay 1967	To Market Chestnut 1948	Market Wise Bay 1938	Brokers Tip Brown 1930	Black Toney Forteresse	1911 1926	10-c 12-c
		Market Wise Bay 1938	On Hand Bay 1931	On Watch Kippy	1917 1920	4-r 22-c
		Pretty Does Bay 1944	Johnstown Bay 1936	Jamestown La France	1928 1928	9-a 17-b
		Pretty Does Bay 1944	Creese Bay 1933	Sickle Circlet	1924 1924	6-e 10-a
	Wiles Bay 1955	Better Self Bay 1945	Bimelech Bay 1937	Black Toney La Troienne	1911 1926	10-c 1-s
		Better Self Bay 1945	Bee Mac Bay 1941	War Admiral Baba Kenny	1934 1928	11-g 20>
		New Weapon Bay 1942	Bold Venture Chestnut 1933	St Germans Possible	1921 1920	16-g 6-a
		New Weapon Bay 1942	Ciencia Brown 1936	Cohort Science	1925 1927	8-c 4-m

Ancestor duplications:

Black Toney

x 5m,5m

Edited by djebel - 19 Dec 2022 at 7:13pm

reductio ad absurdum

furious

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Posted: 19 Dec 2022 at 7:12pm

When a grandson of Exceed and Excel just won the Melbourne Cup SC we shouldn't argue with Djebel too much.

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Posted: 19 Dec 2022 at 7:25pm

Though he might have came up as a sprinter/miler on the basis of pedigree Furious. And all three of us so far agree that aberrations most certainly do occur.

And the other unknown is the trainer and his method of preparation. I well remember a Grand National champion of years gone by that was bred to go about 950m.

So for better or worse I just do my own assessments. Though in truth I haven't spent five minutes on the MM Gold Coast sale.

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Posted: 19 Dec 2022 at 7:30pm

furious wrote:

When a grandson of Exceed and Excel just won the Melbourne Cup SC we shouldn't argue with Djebel too much.

Even Exceed And Excel and his paternal brother and fellow short course group 1 winner Fastnet Rock were bread to be miler plus horses.

Edited by djebel - 19 Dec 2022 at 7:32pm

reductio ad absurdum

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Posted: 19 Dec 2022 at 7:40pm

If you say so.

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Posted: 19 Dec 2022 at 9:01pm

Strasbourg GN 'Chase by Matrice Wink

It takes a wise man a lifetime to grow a tree and a fool five minutes to kill one.

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Posted: 19 Dec 2022 at 9:10pm

STRASBOURG (AUS)

Chestnut colt 1970

Matrice Chestnut 1951	Masthead Chestnut 1944	Blue Peter Chestnut 1936	Fairway Bay 1925	Phalaris Scapa Flow	1913 1914	1-i 13-e
		Blue Peter Chestnut 1936	Fancy Free Bay 1924	Stefan the Great Celiba	1916 1916	2-e 20-c
		Schiaparelli Bay 1935	Schiavoni Bay 1922	Swynford Serenissima	1907 1913	1-g 6-e
		Schiaparelli Bay 1935	Aileen Chestnut 1918	Nimbus Yveline	1910 1913	5-i 8-c
	La Patrice Chestnut 1941	St Magnus Brown 1933	Sansovino Bay 1921	Swynford Gondolette	1907 1902	1-g 6-e
		St Magnus Brown 1933	Fair Isle Bay or brown 1927	Phalaris Scapa Flow	1913 1914	1-i 13-e
		La Joconde Bay 1928	Heroic Chestnut 1921	Valais Chersonese	1913 1915	8-d 1-n
		La Joconde Bay 1928	Bronacre Bay 1921	Linacre Bronze Cross	1904 1916	8-c 7-d
Te Ngutu Lass Chestnut 1964	Pakistan Chestnut 1958	Palestine Grey 1947	Fair Trial Chestnut 1932	Fairway Lady Juror	1925 1919	13-e 9-c
		Palestine Grey 1947	Una Grey 1930	Tetratema Uganda	1917 1921	14-a 3-e
		Tambara Chestnut 1947	Nasrullah Bay 1940	Nearco Mumtaz Begum	1935 1932	4-r 9-c
		Tambara Chestnut 1947	Theresina Chestnut 1927	Diophon Teresina	1921 1920	2-n 6-d
	Te Ngutu Brown 1957	Tsaoko Bay 1945	Vatellor Brown 1933	Vatout Lady Elinor	1926 1919	3-c 12-f
		Tsaoko Bay 1945	Santa Clara Bay 1940	Cameronian Madam Barcarolle	1928 1923	1-t 16-a
		Miss Wynyard Chestnut 1947	Probation Bay 1939	Trimdon Light Sentence	1926 1934	1-l 1-n
		Miss Wynyard Chestnut 1947	Viola Blonde Chestnut 1939	Dink Transaction	1934 1924	3-e 4-o

	Ancestor duplications:	Phalaris	5m,5f x		Fairway	4m x 5m		Scapa Flow	5m,5f x
		Swynford	5m,5m x

reductio ad absurdum

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Posted: 19 Dec 2022 at 9:11pm

EXCEED AND EXCEL (AUS)

Bay colt 2000

Danehill Bay 1986	Danzig Bay 1977	Northern Dancer Bay 1961	Nearctic Brown 1954	Nearco Lady Angela	1935 1944	4-r 14-c
		Northern Dancer Bay 1961	Natalma Bay 1957	Native Dancer Almahmoud	1950 1947	5-f 2-d
		Pas de Nom Bay or brown 1968	Admiral's Voyage Bay or brown 1959	Crafty Admiral Olympia Lou	1948 1952	8-c 4-n
		Pas de Nom Bay or brown 1968	Petitioner Bay 1952	Petition Steady Aim	1944 1943	16-g 7-a
	Razyana Bay 1981	His Majesty Bay 1968	Ribot Bay 1952	Tenerani Romanella	1944 1943	6-d 4-l
		His Majesty Bay 1968	Flower Bowl Bay 1952	Alibhai Flower Bed	1938 1946	6-d 4-d
		Spring Adieu Bay 1974	Buckpasser Bay 1963	Tom Fool Busanda	1949 1947	3-j 1-s
		Spring Adieu Bay 1974	Natalma Bay 1957	Native Dancer Almahmoud	1950 1947	5-f 2-d
Patrona Chestnut 1994	Lomond Bay 1980	Northern Dancer Bay 1961	Nearctic Brown 1954	Nearco Lady Angela	1935 1944	4-r 14-c
		Northern Dancer Bay 1961	Natalma Bay 1957	Native Dancer Almahmoud	1950 1947	5-f 2-d
		My Charmer Bay 1969	Poker Bay 1963	Round Table Glamour	1954 1953	2-f 1-s
		My Charmer Bay 1969	Fair Charmer Chestnut 1959	Jet Action Myrtle Charm	1951 1946	1-s 13-c
	Gladiolus Chestnut 1974	Watch Your Step Chestnut 1956	Citation Bay 1945	Bull Lea Hydroplane	1935 1938	9-f 3-l
		Watch Your Step Chestnut 1956	Stepwisely Brown 1941	Wise Counsellor Stephanie	1921 1925	4-r 6-a
		Back Britches Chestnut 1964	Carry Back Brown 1958	Saggy Joppy	1945 1949	6-f 24>
		Back Britches Chestnut 1964	Foxbritches Bay 1958	Beau Gar Fulgent	1950 1951	2-n 23-b

Ancestor duplications:

Northern Dancer

3m x 3m

Natalma

4m,4f x 4m

reductio ad absurdum

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Posted: 19 Dec 2022 at 9:13pm

FASTNET ROCK (AUS)

Bay colt 2001

Danehill Bay 1986	Danzig Bay 1977	Northern Dancer Bay 1961	Nearctic Brown 1954	Nearco Lady Angela	1935 1944	4-r 14-c
		Northern Dancer Bay 1961	Natalma Bay 1957	Native Dancer Almahmoud	1950 1947	5-f 2-d
		Pas de Nom Bay or brown 1968	Admiral's Voyage Bay or brown 1959	Crafty Admiral Olympia Lou	1948 1952	8-c 4-n
		Pas de Nom Bay or brown 1968	Petitioner Bay 1952	Petition Steady Aim	1944 1943	16-g 7-a
	Razyana Bay 1981	His Majesty Bay 1968	Ribot Bay 1952	Tenerani Romanella	1944 1943	6-d 4-l
		His Majesty Bay 1968	Flower Bowl Bay 1952	Alibhai Flower Bed	1938 1946	6-d 4-d
		Spring Adieu Bay 1974	Buckpasser Bay 1963	Tom Fool Busanda	1949 1947	3-j 1-s
		Spring Adieu Bay 1974	Natalma Bay 1957	Native Dancer Almahmoud	1950 1947	5-f 2-d
Piccadilly Circus Bay 1995	Royal Academy Bay 1987	Nijinsky Bay 1967	Northern Dancer Bay 1961	Nearctic Natalma	1954 1957	14-c 2-d
		Nijinsky Bay 1967	Flaming Page Bay 1959	Bull Page Flaring Top	1947 1947	4-m 8-f
		Crimson Saint Chestnut 1969	Crimson Satan Chestnut 1959	Spy Song Papila	1943 1943	2-o 26>
		Crimson Saint Chestnut 1969	Bolero Rose Chestnut 1958	Bolero First Rose	1946 1946	6-a 8-c
	Gatana Bay 1989	Marauding Bay 1984	Sir Tristram Bay 1971	Sir Ivor Isolt	1965 1961	8-g 6-e
		Marauding Bay 1984	Biscalowe Chestnut 1979	Biscay Nunkalowe	1965 1972	2-o 4-i
		Twigalae Bay 1979	Twig Moss Bay 1973	Luthier Top Twig	1965 1967	14-c 1-k
		Twigalae Bay 1979	Hondalae Brown 1968	Better Honey Gossworth	1958 1962	16-d 2-f

Ancestor duplications:

Northern Dancer

3m x 4m

Natalma

4m,4f x 5m

reductio ad absurdum

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Posted: 19 Dec 2022 at 9:26pm

Hello,

Djebel

as I see "Kala Dancer" carries some "German blood" . His Granddam is Blauer Reiter (= Blue Rider) o/o Blaue Grotte, from a longestablished Damline in my homecountry. Btw, wideley related with the "Hyperion" damline.

'Kala Dancers' family was a short time represented in Germany, too and is the sameone as "Surumu".

regards, Ticino

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