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Food for thought INBREEDING |
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Daraabah 
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 Posted: 30 Jul 2025 at 7:40pm |
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The thoroughbred is a closed gene pool so inbreeding is inevitable in a pedigree. But as you have clearly done alot of research on it, are you willing to share the 18 types of inbreeding that you found were favourable and which were unfavourable. That would be a good discussion to have.
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diomed
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Posted: 02 Aug 2025 at 5:22am |
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You will find some of the results on foalmare.com from an analysis of 159,200 rated horses.
The full results would have covered several dozen pages so I summarised as much as I could. The most favourable inbreeding by far is a full sibling sister (producing a male) and her full sibling brother (producing a female) in the 4th or 5th generations of a pedigree. It is not an easy task to plan this in a pedigree. Your mare may not have any ancestor in her 3rd, 4th, 5th generations that has a full sibling in the pedigrees of the stallions available to you. In general full siblings in a six generation pedigree are a positive. Good examples of this are 1965 and 1967 Melbourne Cup winners Light Fingers (f) and Red Handed (m) who are both 4 x 4 to full sister Castleline (f) and full brother Knight Of The Garter (m) (both by Son-In-Law out of Castelline). In general having full siblings in the 4th, 5th, 6th generations helps. I have a yearling colt in a field in Co Kilkenny who is 4 x 5 to a full sibling sister and brother. But there is much more than that in his pedigree. The least positive version of full siblings in a pedigree is two full sibling brothers producing two sons (my opinion). .................................................................................................................................. Often critics of inbreeding comment that a runner is inbred to sire Xxxxxx, the runner is no good, and that proves inbreeding is bad - an example of one. In general six generation pedigrees have 3, 4, or 5 different inbreeding groups that are ignored when framing a comment blaming one ancestor or blaming inbreeding. The rest of the inbreeding is ignored. The ancestors back in the 7th, 8th, 9th generations and back from that also have an influence, probably because the distant groups are much larger (i.e. many more duplicated ancestors than the two ancestor group we might see in the 4th, 5th, 6th generations). My general suggestion is you should have both sexes involved in the inbreeding e.g. a son (m) and daughter (f) of a duplicated sire (m); two daughters (f) of a duplicated sire (m); a son (m) and daughter (f) of a duplicated dam (f). I copyied the work of Harold Hampton and Clive Harper (see foalmare.com). I made no discoveries. I tested their work by increasing the sample greatly and I agree with their conclusions. .................................................................................................................................. Yes, two full siblings (male or female) have the same pedigree. One is a cracker, the other is useless. Analysing a very large data sample rises above the tiny sample example and shows the true picture. Anyone who thinks about it realises a foal is the produce of a male and a female, and each contributes to the DNA of their foal. Assume the sire's DNA is 50% A and 50% B, and the dam's DNA is 50% Y and 50% Z. The sire, a top runner is AB and the dam a good runner is YZ. The foal's DNA can be AY, AZ, BY, BZ. The foal can not be AB (a good male runner with the same DNA as his sire) or YZ (a good female runner like his dam). Even if the sire's good genes were in the A and the dam's good genes were in the Z the chance of the foal inheriting AZ was only 25%. A very simple example and in no way scientific. .................................................................................................................................. Another suggestion is you should have many inbreeding groups in a pedigree. In my post above Posted: 16 Apr 2024 at 10:38am you will see Galileo has both sexes represented in 56 of his 58 groups (in 10 generations). In modern pedigrees it is common to have many sons of a duplicated sire and no daughters of that duplicated sire. Within three generations Northern Dancer had, in my data of 700,000+ horses, 14.66 sons for every 1.00 daughter. That made it almost impossible to get the favourable inbreeding group, [son and daughter of a duplicated sire (in this case Northern Dancer) ideal for a male runner], or [two daughters of a duplicated sire (in this case Northern Dancer) ideal for a female runner]. Here you will see the pedigree of my three month old filly foal (born 17/05/25) There are about ten different inbreeding groups (i.e. duplicated ancestors) and in almost all cases both sexes are in the [duplicated ancestor + their offspring "group"] - the exception is two sons (m) of duplicated sire Green Desert (m). What I tried to do was force the issue. The foal should inherit from superior ancestors because those ancestors are duplicated, leaving little room in the pedigree for inferior ancestors. The risk is too many duplications may not work. .................................................................................................................................. I have gone through much analysis before deciding that (correct) inbreeding is more likely to contribute to the production of good horses that other ideas about breeding. People are fixated on black type. I prepared a database of all Group1, Group 2, Group 3 race winners in Ireland, England, France, Germany, Italy, USA (Grade 1 only) from 1900 to 2015. About 12% of Group winners are from dams who won a Group race, or stated another way, 88% of Group race winners are from dams who did not win a Group race. I ignored Listed winners (a number about equal to all Group races) and horses placed in Group races (that would treble the numbers). If 100 dams who had won a Group race produced 12 Group race winning offspring that is 12%. You might think that is a wonderful return. I assume Group race winning fillies go to the very best sires, the most expensive sires, throughout their breeding careers. And I also assume that the owners of those mares try to produce a foal from their mare every year for the reason that people pay big money for their yearlings, and big money every year is nice. 100 dams might each have had 10 foals in their breeding careers, or a total of 1,000 foals from those dams (100 dams x 10 foals each). We have 12 Group race winners from 1,000 foals from 100 Group race winning dams that were sent to the top sires every year. 12 Group winners from 1,000 foals. Perhaps my maths or logic are incorrect. If it is correct me. Obviously Group winning dams produce Group winners at a greater rate that dams who did not win a Group race but I think the advantage is much smaller than the market assumes. "Breed the best to the best" is a successful policy for the breeder who is selling yearlings for high prices, also a successfull policy for the stallion owner, but ruinous to the buyer who is buying yearlings bred to fashion. .................................................................................................................................. My suggestions if you want to do a little analysis that is not too onerous Analyse the best 10 or 20 runners by a sire and the worst 10 or 20 runners by that sire. Try to see the difference in the runner pedigrees. Analyse all the runners by one sire comparing the rating of each runner to the rating of that runner's dam. Subtract the dam rating from the runner rating in each case. A few runners will have much higher ratings that their dams. A few runners will have much lower ratings that their dams. Look at the the pedigrees of the biggest gainers and the biggest losers.
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foalmare.com - my thoughts about pedigree
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diomed
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Posted: 02 Aug 2025 at 5:25am |
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Study Table 6 and Table 7 in the PDF file on foalmare.com. You will need to read other pages near those tables to understand the table column heading.
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foalmare.com - my thoughts about pedigree
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Take2
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Posted: 02 Aug 2025 at 3:53pm |
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Stakeswinners and Group 1 Winners "IN" Bred to Sadler’s Wells and
Fairy King (within 6 Generations) Formatted List Highlighting G1 Winners (BOLD and
uppercase) and Notable Stakeswinners, mainly SH types, as Fairy King’s Aussie
progeny was around 130 TOTAL UNEDITED PRESENCES OVER 500, INCL UNNAMED SALES
ENTRIES, not wishing to detract or concur from anything, just wot i have on my DB
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change is simply a destination on a journey reached by taking the first step (i said that) lol
www.3rdmillenniumbloodstock.com.au |
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Daraabah
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Posted: 02 Aug 2025 at 5:04pm |
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The problem with inbreeding stats on black type horses is that no comparative stats are available for the incidence of inbreeding in slow horses. If so, where are they???? If we only check the incidence of inbreeding in a sire's best performers and ignore the inbreeding stats of his worst, we cannot then say inbreeding is the cause of high performance.
Further, with the full sibling oppositive sex duplications in 1965 and 1967 Melbourne Cup winners, Light Fingers (f) and Red Handed (m)...we could equally argue that Le Filou wanted what Red Mars had (Big Philou is another with the same cross) which may not be the opposite sex sibling but could be the other lines Red Mars brings to horses bred with this cross. |
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Take2
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Posted: 02 Aug 2025 at 8:48pm |
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this is not any reflection on diomeds work, and for nothing more than a tiny snapsht on your question Daraabah, and as i said above, i have 532 presences of the S'wells, Fairy k "cross" in 1-6 generations. On running my filters, i found that i have 180, unnamed, which gives around 340 or so named, of these 180 are winners, (leaving about 160 or so current non winners) incl sw and g1 winners, of the 180 winners, 65 are stakeswinners, and 16 G1 winners. I am always updating my DB, so these figures will change, and at present working through the 180 unnamed from the sales, and also, as i usually input heaps of horses from the sales into my DB as well as constantly inputting winners, and results of group races, and then they get updated some (years) time later, it does give a pretty good idea on duplications , and inbreedings . crosses etc etc
Edited by Take2 - 02 Aug 2025 at 8:52pm |
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change is simply a destination on a journey reached by taking the first step (i said that) lol
www.3rdmillenniumbloodstock.com.au |
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Take2
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Posted: 02 Aug 2025 at 10:13pm |
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“in 1965 and 1967 Melbourne Cup winners, Light Fingers (f) and
Red Handed (m)...we could equally argue that Le Filou wanted what Red Mars had (Big Philou is another with the same cross) which may not be
the opposite sex sibling but could be the other lines Red Mars brings to horses
bred with this cross.” Daraabah Exactly Daraabah, but prob more to the point, it would more
likely be what the broodmares involved, brought to the Party, which I can find
out, but cuddlesome brought a lot to Le Filou, thru Her Sire Red Mars, The
mating was done at least 4 times and produced 3 smart ones, Light Fingers, The
Dip, and Light Fingers sis my Lady Fair That, in a nutshell is how the Vuillier AK method is used
(to my understanding from my books anyway) Red mars has NO Teddy Le Filou an abundance Le Filou has about 65 more appearances of Touchstone than
Red Mars Red mars has about double the amount of Selim than Le Filou,
and about double the amount of Tramp I could go on and on, but that’s the way
it works, Mme Germaine Vuilier said, “it’s the Mare who makes the Stallion, and
NOT Vice Verce”, and it is relatively easy to do, once you have your list of “Archetypes”
of the breed, and quantify the blood presences accordingly, there you have it
plus and minus That, in a
nutshell is how the Vuillier AK method is used (to my understanding from my
books anyway) Red mars has NO
Teddy Le Filou an abundance Le Filou has
about 65 more appearances of Touchstone than Red Mars Le Filou has NO
Gondolette, Red Mars, HEAPS |
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change is simply a destination on a journey reached by taking the first step (i said that) lol
www.3rdmillenniumbloodstock.com.au |
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diomed
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Posted: 03 Aug 2025 at 12:06am |
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Your first point - no comparative stats are available for the incidence of inbreeding in slow horses. If so, where are they???? There are on my four PCs. Nobody will hand this information to you. You can not get a download. If you want to analyse the pedigrees of poor horses (to allow comparison with top horses) you must gather the ratings data and the pedigrees yourself. That is what I did. Did you know that the recent edition of the General Stud Book produced by Weatherbys (all thoroughbreds in Britain and Ireland) was sold to less than one hundred people? I bought it, as I have done for all the previous editions. That is a strong indication that few are interested in pedigrees. I ignored black type in my analysis as I consider that is a sales auction house marketing expression. Breeders want to breed a black type horse and that is horse probably rated 100 and over. I wanted to analyse all runners (or as many as I could gather). My 159,200 rated horses range from those rated higher than zero up to Frankel rated 147. I extracted all the inbreeding groups in six generations of those 159,200 rated runners. I took no notice of the names of the duplicated ancestors (sires or dams). I took no notice of the generations in which the inbreedng too place. I did record the sex of the duplicated ancestor. I did record the sex of the offspring of the duplicated ancestor. we could equally argue that Le Filou wanted what Red Mars had (Big Philou is another with the same cross) which may not be the opposite sex sibling but could be the other lines Red Mars brings to horses bred with this cross. I will not argue with anyone about individual horses. If you analyse a very large data sample you will find what works. If a good horse has the inbreeding that works in the large sample you can suggest (but not know) that that was the sourse of the ability. You asked about the 18 inbreeding types I analysed (Harold Hampton identified 25 different types but the others are rare and difficult to extract with a program). I tried to simplify by saying that full siblings in the ancestors of a six generation pedigree are by far the most influential inbreeding. The other positive inbreeding types (and the negative types) can be learned by reading my 80 pages PDF file on folamare.com. I always said that all the inbreeding in a pedigree must be examined and that is what I did for 159,200 pedigrees. In a single pedigree it is not possible to be definitive about the source of the ability. Often when a horse wins an important race writers tell us what influences in the pedigree caused the ability. That is why I analysed 159,200 pedigree, not one pedigree. On page 68 of The First Scientific Principles of Thoroughbred Breeding, part 2, the Origin of Speed (1956) by Harold Hampton he gives the full inbreeding you get for runners by Le Filou out of a Red Mars mare.
(I think there is more that those three but yesterday I brought one of my four PCs to an IT repair shop and can not give the other inbreeding - possibly another line of Chaucer's sire St Simon in Cuddlesome)
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foalmare.com - my thoughts about pedigree
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Take2
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Posted: 03 Aug 2025 at 9:12am |
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Daraabah, I have 700+ occurrences of Le Filou with Red Mars in 1-6 removes, thats the cross and reverse cross included, the only ones I have listed with any form in the filter box, is 7 g1's, obviously there would be more, given the numbers, Duccio, and Contact- Marconigram, also have big numbers on the same criteria 1-6, and round about the ame number of g1's (all on my db that is)
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change is simply a destination on a journey reached by taking the first step (i said that) lol
www.3rdmillenniumbloodstock.com.au |
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Take2
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Posted: 03 Aug 2025 at 9:42am |
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It's all very well that I am pretty big on theories, proven or subject to conjecture as are others, cos opinions are like dingers and everyone has one, I have tried to have a good horse for nearly 60 years, had two lowly winners till windows appeared years ago, when thx to the advancement of computers, and gathering data, and when game enough decided to put an age old theory to the physical and pocket (for me) test, and aquired the 3 volume set of Vuillier, and read up on everything i could of him and the Aga Khans immense success, (including inbreeding etc) computerised my versions of it all, and have had 2 to race of my own, for a G2 G3 and winner of 4 cups, and just missed the golden ticket to the Melb cup in EXCELLERATION, (never bred him, he just matched what i was looking for) and one other winner in Cosmic Enigma- illuminous, (the same) sold to HK (thank you VERY much), and from a racing sense planning the mating of another winner (so 3 from 3 ), now there are roughly 6 others just about ready to race that i have planned, and some i own. what i am saying is if anyone has a strong inclination on any of the many theories in breeding. test it out via electronically and analyse to ones hearts content, then either dismiss or embrace it, if the latter tweak it for all its worth, Diomed mentioned the number of subscribers to the stud book, which is a pity, as information contained therein is gold. Success in anything can only come with a lot of work, in any form, as many who have bought solely because of fashion market have fouund out
in relation to castelline duplications (inbreeding?) I have over 2000 ocurrences from the over 1,000,000 peds on my db for 35 sw incl 14 g1's, in gens 1-9 (featuring predominately in gens7-9) so obviously a lot of work identify them in the filters
Edited by Take2 - 03 Aug 2025 at 9:53am |
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change is simply a destination on a journey reached by taking the first step (i said that) lol
www.3rdmillenniumbloodstock.com.au |
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Daraabah
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Posted: 03 Aug 2025 at 11:16am |
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[Q[/QUOTE]
Daraabah, I have 700+ occurrences of Le Filou with Red Mars in 1-6 removes, thats the cross and reverse cross included, the only ones I have listed with any form in the filter box, is 7 g1's, obviously there would be more, given the numbers, Duccio, and Contact- Marconigram, also have big numbers on the same criteria 1-6, and round about the ame number of g1's (all on my db that is) [/QUOTE]How many by Le Filou with mares carrying Knight Of The Garter NOT through Red Mars????? |
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Daraabah
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Posted: 03 Aug 2025 at 11:22am |
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Clearly that cross is BIG but SW & FK are full brothers, which is not the best inbreeding cross...who then are the best horses we have seen inbred to full oppositie sex siblings in the past year? |
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Take2
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Posted: 03 Aug 2025 at 1:42pm |
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Vicious Harry x Harry Angel inbred to full sis bro sibs in Night Shift and Fanreluche 5x6 for one, also 3 other SW's from 15 named on my db, and missing 4 results
Northern Dancer x Arctic Dancer, (bro and sis) have 80 on my DB and as one would be aware, most are us based, so results are not up to date, but have 2 SW'sm incid, Arctic Dancer is Dam of La Prevoyante, xBUCKPASSER who won Her 1st 12 Races asa 2yo, and whom Secretariat edged her in HOTY honours, in a split decision, between the Journo's and the racing associations, as a 3yo she placed in the Kentucky Oaks and Canadian Oaks, won the Quebec Derby, and as a 4yo won her 1st 3 races consecutively, and collapsed of a ruptured lung, and died, and following her last race, also, Arctic Dancer, and Spring Adieu are 1/2 sibs, Spring Adieu, (BUCKPASSER) grand dam of DANEHILL
Edited by Take2 - 03 Aug 2025 at 1:53pm |
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change is simply a destination on a journey reached by taking the first step (i said that) lol
www.3rdmillenniumbloodstock.com.au |
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Take2
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Posted: 03 Aug 2025 at 4:24pm |
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Devil’s Bag - Glorious Song Blue Sky Holiday 2005 Bimelech – Black Helen Hula Chief, Don’t Say Halo. Pleasant Tap, Hula Grey, Hula
Wonder Moccassin - Ridan Tepin 2011 Thatch – Special Got 70 Sw’s not sure how many are crossed in the sense under
discussion maybe a lot of them are contained in either the dam or sire only |
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change is simply a destination on a journey reached by taking the first step (i said that) lol
www.3rdmillenniumbloodstock.com.au |
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Daraabah
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Joined: 03 Feb 2009 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 1145 |
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Posted: 03 Aug 2025 at 10:31pm |
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D, have you read Hampton's Scientific Principals part 3? In it, he refines his general principal of opposite sex inbreeding to using specific, opposite sex lines, of what an individual stallion requires, or 'throws to'. While he holds to his early principals that inbreeding is 'the cause of speed', he explains how the inbreeding need to be specific, rather than duplicating random lines because they match up in the stallion and mares' pedigree. He talks about the use of 'inbreeding' either up close, or way back, if that is where the line the stallion is 'throwing to' is located in his pedigree. He demonstrates that pedigree analysis needs to be specific to the individual stallion. In my meagre study, I have found individuals are remarkably consistent in what they need to get their best. |
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diomed
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Joined: 16 Nov 2016 Location: Roscrea Status: Offline Points: 904 |
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Posted: 04 Aug 2025 at 2:50am |
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Yes I purchased Part 3 from Jack Glengarry. That book was produced by Clive Harper from audio tapes recorded by Harold Hampton. The book is a bit disjointed, and probably should have been edited to produce a more readable text. A few of the chapters have the same heading, and there are many spelling mistakes (horse names). A problem with Harold Hampton's advice to find the horse a sire "throws back to" is you can only do that when the sire has had a good number of crops racing, perhaps eight or more racing crops. Another imponderable is I saw no analysis in the book to support the throwback. How many horses were tested? What percentage had the throwback? How many were good runners? How do you find the throwback for a sire new to stud, or in his first years at stud with no runners yet? My filly foal born in 2025 was by a sire who at the time she was conceived had no runners. I did not wait for a throwback. Would I use a sire that had the one distant throwback, but nothing in the first six generations to justify the mating? ......................................................................................................................... On Thoroughbred Village I analysed the running crops of Frankel (2008), who went to stud in 2013, and my study was of 598 rated Frankel runners. My guess is he was about half-way through his stud career. My finding was that the mares that worked best with Frankel had one or more of about a half-dozen sires in their pedigrees (not on "throwback"). Frankel did best with Empire Maker mares (and his half-brother Chester House), both out of Toussaud (f). Almost all the succesful Frankel runners matched well with Frankel's dam, Kind, and not with Frankel's sire Galileo. What makes a good runner? The best runner by a sire must be the result of a mating where the sire matches with one dam better than with any of the other mares he received. I think I explained on my website why Sadler's Wells and Urban Sea matched well to produce Galileo (10 generation pedigree analysis). It was not one magic throwback but 56 of 58 inbreeding groups in 10 generations being "correct". I have not looked to see why Galileo with Kind produced the top runner Frankel. ......................................................................................................................... Very successful European sires have these features (call it throwback if you like) Siyouni has Carrie's Rough as his 4th dam, who traces on sire line to Sting (1921) on her sire line who has Sandiway (1881) (f) on both his dam lines. Sandiway is a full sibling sister of Tadcaster (1877) who is on the sire line of all Northern Dancer line horses. You could say Siyouni "throws back" (a catchy expression) to Northern Dancer or "nicks" (another catchy expression) with him. Dark Angel (2005) has Khan Bahadur (1935), a full sibling of Mahmoud (1933) on his dam line. ......................................................................................................................... Mehmas (2014) has a dam line similar to Danzig (1977) both going to Quick Change (1924) (f). But who does Quick Change match in the successful offspring of those two sires, or is the magic coming from elsewhere? Mill Reef (1968) and Blushing Groom (1974) trace to full sibling sisters Infra Red (f) and Eclair (f). What is the magic in those full sibling sisters? ......................................................................................................................... I might go back to the Frankel program (half program, half manual) and write a program to find the "throwback" of successful sires. That will not happen for a few months (if at all) as the weather is good and I play golf a few times a week. My guess is it not one throwback, but a number of ancestors that match, but of course if there are two or three "throwbacks" in one successful runner the temptation is for people to latch on to one ancestor as the throwback. Yes, I know about Les Brinsfield, his suggested "throwback" between Diomed and Young Giantess. He may have been correct, but what I get from that is not a magic ancestor but the idea that matching is important, and I prefer matching to be close to the foal where it is more likely to be effective. I come from a country where the legend is if go to the end of the rainbow, catch a leprechaun, answer his three questions correctly, he will give you his crock of gold. I would put "throwbacks" into the "crock of gold" category until I know better.
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foalmare.com - my thoughts about pedigree
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Daraabah
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Joined: 03 Feb 2009 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 1145 |
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Posted: 04 Aug 2025 at 10:37am |
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You will be familiar with the outstanding Irish Champion, Powerscourt. He shows the way for Frankel. I look forward to studying the rest of your post, D, when I get some time.
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furious
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Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Status: Offline Points: 30978 |
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Posted: 04 Aug 2025 at 12:46pm |
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Here's an interesting one for you
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Second Chance
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Joined: 02 Dec 2007 Status: Online Points: 56833 |
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Posted: 04 Aug 2025 at 4:12pm |
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Indeed. And suspect we're really talking line breeding rather than in-breeding.
I'll just concentrate on the m/f duplication of the mare Delsy in Fallen Angel's pedigree. What a mare to duplicate, she being the dam of at least four stakes-winners (two at Gp1 level) including Darara - herself dam of four Gp1 stakes winners and grand-dam of three Group winners including of course Too Darn Hot.
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furious
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Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Status: Offline Points: 30978 |
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Posted: 04 Aug 2025 at 4:18pm |
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Yep that mare was breed just at the right time for Too Darn Hot. But plenty of other things in her blood suggest the cross would work. The more the merrier for getting the right result. Just hard to find them sometimes! Those great mares are worth their weight in gold.
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