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G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes |
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Gay3
Moderator Group Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Location: Miners Rest Status: Offline Points: 51994 |
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Posted: 13 Apr 2021 at 3:49pm |
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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
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TJMitchell
Champion Joined: 29 Jun 2014 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 16915 |
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I said to my buddies a while back I thought VE would win the first race and Addeybb the second. I will be sticking by that.
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Time is a flat circle
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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Verry Elleegant will be 6 lengths better than she was in this race last year because she did not go via the Tancred.
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reductio ad absurdum
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TJMitchell
Champion Joined: 29 Jun 2014 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 16915 |
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If she wins by 3 lengths I'll eat my hat
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Time is a flat circle
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8678 |
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Maybe VE will have the edge again?
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Gay3
Moderator Group Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Location: Miners Rest Status: Offline Points: 51994 |
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The query I have is the veterinary issue pre his last race where the gear change 'synthetic hoof filler' was published. Is he 100% over it & is he as effective on firmer going, taking possible feet issues into consideration but not forgetting the prowess of his trainer
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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
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TJMitchell
Champion Joined: 29 Jun 2014 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 16915 |
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Someone please suggest a nice condiment that goes well with hat “If it wasn’t so far away I’d probably consider not running him but there is nothing we can do about the weather.’’
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Time is a flat circle
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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I have no doubt he would have scratched him but I also have no doubt he is not as bad on a firm surface as they make out.
He has a class 3 win on good which is basically a Saturday 3yo BM72, His other two starts on good tracks are in group 1 races, the Lockinge Stakes where he was very poor and a good run beaten by the flying Lord North. There should be enough rain about in Sydney to ensure it is not too firm. Good 3 starts 1 win, 1 placing and a shocker. Soft or worse 17 starts 10 wins 4 placings 2 less than stellar runs.
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reductio ad absurdum
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Red Rancher
Champion Joined: 28 Oct 2009 Location: Sydney Status: Offline Points: 747 |
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I watched the G1 Prince of Wales where Addeybb came 2nd to Lord North on a good track. He beat some big names and ran very well. He is no duffer on the dry but does lose his wet edge.
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Tlazolteotl
Champion Joined: 02 Oct 2012 Location: Elephant Butte Status: Offline Points: 31417 |
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It will be no better than a 5 on Saturday could be 6 but in any event I can't see VE being beaten.
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An honest politician is one who when he is bought will stay bought.
Simon Cameron |
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Shawy38
Champion Joined: 13 Jun 2015 Status: Offline Points: 17382 |
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The mare will brain them.
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Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing
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Pardon_My_Dust
Champion Joined: 01 Dec 2009 Status: Offline Points: 9124 |
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She's bigger, stronger and more mature. Also she is a winner in every sense. |
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Gay3
Moderator Group Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Location: Miners Rest Status: Offline Points: 51994 |
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Addeybb will wear blinkers for the first time in an endeavour to find the extra edge he needs to win a second successive $4 million Longines Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m) at Royal Randwick on Saturday. English jockey Tom Marquand conceded Addeybb was “a touch below par” when beaten by arch rival Verry Elleegant in the Ranvet Stakes which has prompted the gear change. “I couldn’t help but think he didn’t quite hit the last 100m like he normally does,’’ Marquand said. “So, we have whacked the blinkers on, that is something we haven’t had on before. He has had cheek pieces on the last three or four years so it won’t be a big shock to him. “He won’t grow a spectacular pair of wings and do something he has never done before but it might help him travel and put a bit of spark back into him.’’ The Queen Elizabeth Stakes has been billed as a match race between Addeybb and Verry Elleegant for some weeks but the jockeys of Sir Dragonet and Mugatoo don’t see it that way.Glen Boss, the rider of Sir Dragonet, said the horse gone to another level since his dominant Tancred Stakes win. “Verry Elleegant is the main danger, she’s world class,’’ Boss said after riding Sir Dragonet in an impressive gallop at Royal Randwick’s Trackwork with the Stars on Tuesday morning. “But this is going to be a spectacular race – classic distance, one of the best tracks, three great riders on three good horses – hopefully we can make it a good spectacle for everyone.’’ Bowman rides Mugatoo who is coming off his close fourth in the Doncaster Mile last Saturday. “I might remind Glen there are eight in the race, not three,’’ Bowman said. “But it is a very good race, high quality, and Mutagoo deserves his place in the line-up. “He ran below expectations in the Doncaster, I won’t beat around the bush there, but if he can bounce off that and get back to the form he showed winning the All Star Mile a month ago he will make his presence felt. We know 2000m is his best distance.’’ James McDonald put Verry Elleegant through her paces at Rosehill trackwork before going back to Randwick for the big-race barrier draw. “She is in really good order and did a lovely piece of work (yesterday morning),’’ McDonald said. “I’m looking forward to the big clash.’’ |
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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
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Gay3
Moderator Group Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Location: Miners Rest Status: Offline Points: 51994 |
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Trainer William Haggas has issued a blunt warning about Addeybb’s chances of successfully defending his $4 million Longines Queen Elizabeth Stakes crown at Royal Randwick on Saturday. “Addeybb is nowhere near as good on a dry track,’’ Haggas told The Daily Telegraph from his Newmarket stables in England. “If it wasn’t so far away I’d probably consider not running him but there is nothing we can do about the weather.’’ Addeybb won the Queen Elizabeth Stakes by nearly three lengths from Verry Elleegant last year on a track rated a heavy 8 but he won’t have anything like those conditions on Saturday. The Randwick track surface was rated a soft 5 late Tuesday and with fine weather forecast for the rest of this week, it is expected to be in the good range for Sydney’s richest autumn carnival race. Haggas said despite concerns about the relatively firm Randwick surface Addeybb will be given his chance to win successive Queen Elizabeth Stakes on Saturday. Addeybb was among eight final acceptors for the Queen Elizabeth Stakes on Day Two of The Championships. Rosehill Guineas winner Mo’unga is the only three-year-old in the race, Group 1 winners Think It Over (George Ryder Stakes) and Samadoubt (Winx Stakes) will start along with All-Star Mile winner Mugatoo and Doncaster Mile placegetter Dalasan. Small fields in weight-for-age races usually develop into a tactical battle between the jockeys but Samadoubt’s inclusion should ensure the Queen Elizabeth Stakes is run at a genuine tempo as he is a noted leader. But Haggas said there is no ambiguity about how Tom Marquand will ride Addeybb. “Addeybb goes forward, he will lead or sit just off the speed and he doesn’t drop out,’’ the trainer said. “From that point of view he is pretty uncomplicated and he is a very genuine horse.’’ Haggas admitted the Golden Slipper washout which pushed the autumn carnival back a week has played against Addeybb. “If we did not have the storms for the first race, it (Sydney campaign) would be all done and dusted by now,’’ Haggas said. “We would have run him on a soft 7 or heavy 8 last weekend but that won’t be the case this Saturday, it seems. “Last year everything went in our favour, this year it is just gone against us somewhat but I’m not complaining.’’ Addeybb had his first race since October last year when he ran arch rival Verry Elleegant to a length in the Ranvet Stakes on Golden Slipper Day on March 27. But Haggas said the reports he is receiving in England about Addeybb suggest the gelding has taken improvement from the run. “I’m told, and all the markers I can judge from 12,000 miles away suggest he has gone forward,’’ Haggas said. “We are very happy with him and he will be in there fighting.’’ The build-up to the Queen Elizabeth Stakes has been gaining momentum in Sydney for weeks. Addeybb has been favourite for the Queen Elizabeth virtually since TAB Fixed Odds started betting on the race but his Ranvet Stakes defeat and the likelihood of a good track has resulted in him easing slightly to $2.70 and being displaced at the top of betting by Verry Elleegant at $2.60. Despite Addeybb’s presence in the field, the race hasn’t attracted much media interest in England, according to Haggas. “We have had some big news here with the Duke Of Edinburgh passing and a girl (Rachael Blackmore) riding the Grand National winner,’’ he said. “So what is happening in Australia is sort of floating by at the moment. “But we do have a big race meeting at Newbury on Saturday that has been postponed to Sunday as the Duke’s funeral is on at 3pm on Saturday. “I guess the Sydney race will get some coverage at the end of the week.’’ The Haggas stable has an opportunity to claim two Group 1 races with English stayer Favourite Moon equal favourite at $6 with Realm Of Flowers for the $2 million Schweppes Sydney Cup (3200m). They clashed in the Manion Cup (2400m) last start with Favourite Moon winning narrowly from the fast finishing Realm Of Flowers. Haggas said the step up to 3200m won’t be a problem for Favourite Moon who he describes as a strong stayer. “I’ve always felt the extra distance would suit him well and the Rosehill win has brought him forward,’’ he said |
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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
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Stainvita
Champion Joined: 10 Dec 2014 Location: Sydney Status: Offline Points: 1044 |
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Beware Verry Ellegant is best when there is pace on all the way, it will be run slow to moderate, this will suit the English horse.
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If your hands aren't shaking you haven't put enough on.
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Stainvita
Champion Joined: 10 Dec 2014 Location: Sydney Status: Offline Points: 1044 |
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If your hands aren't shaking you haven't put enough on.
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Second Chance
Champion Joined: 02 Dec 2007 Status: Offline Points: 45716 |
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Good to have you back after a bit of a spell Stainvita.
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Pardon_My_Dust
Champion Joined: 01 Dec 2009 Status: Offline Points: 9124 |
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I disagree with this Stainvita. She's very adaptable, can stay and can sit and sprint. I think if it's run slow she'll be fine.
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jacko1
Champion Joined: 26 Jun 2007 Status: Offline Points: 1801 |
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Yeah she has a good turn of foot. I think Addeybb will put on a decent tempo and make it a bit more of a staying test and hope to outstay her. Get McDonald and co. chasing early like last years ranvet.
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Pardon_My_Dust
Champion Joined: 01 Dec 2009 Status: Offline Points: 9124 |
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Bang on Jacko. I tyhink the only possible way Addeybb can beat her is if she has to sit outside him punching the breeze on a strong tempo.
FWIW I see Samadoubt crossing Addeybb who will then come off the fence and give cover to VE. Mugatoo behind the leader. the only other potential fly in the ointment for VE is if Boss decides he wants that one one position behind Addeybb and kics up. The mare could get posted. I think she really needs to jump well.
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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PMD, Samadoubt is out.
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reductio ad absurdum
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Pardon_My_Dust
Champion Joined: 01 Dec 2009 Status: Offline Points: 9124 |
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Verry interesting indeed.
She may well have to punch the breeze outside Addeybb. I love her and will be backing her but she may be vulnerable if they go hard. That said J Mac is good enough and smart enough to drop in behind if he has to. If she does sit outside Addeybb and beat him she's truly the best.
On J Mac's instagram post he referred to her as a fighting tiger and we all remember who that was and it's hard not to draw the comparison. Both average looking horses that have won many Group 1 races and quite often by small margins but always winning nonetheless through sheer determination and will to win. |
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jacko1
Champion Joined: 26 Jun 2007 Status: Offline Points: 1801 |
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I think one of the outsiders will chance their arm and roll forward and take a trail behind Addeybb. I don't imagine the other 3 main chances want to be too close to the speed and have to do much work early. They'll want to be 3rd/4th/5th and relaxed and then be close enough to pounce.
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VOYAGER
Champion Joined: 04 Aug 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 18736 |
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Read a interesting take on Racenet, from a Timeform analyst no less
He pointed out that everyone is saying that VE has the advantage on the dry however in the spring she did take the whole Flemington straight to get past Toffee Tongue and with Dalasan right on her tail. Are we all sure she will be the best horse (I mean out of every runner) on a dry?
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Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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jacko1
Champion Joined: 26 Jun 2007 Status: Offline Points: 1801 |
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I see his point, but I don't really see it as a knock on her that she sat four deep on a rock hard track and only just won. She was being trained for a Caulfield & Melbourne Cup and ground away down the straight. She ran a good second on a good 4 in the Chipping Norton last year. She bolted in in an Oaks on a good 4. Which runner has better credentials on top of the ground than her?
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Pardon_My_Dust
Champion Joined: 01 Dec 2009 Status: Offline Points: 9124 |
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Just look at her remarkable run in the Melbourne Cup on the bone hard track. Not sure she could have gone any better in the wet the run was enormous.
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marble
Champion Joined: 12 Jan 2008 Location: Brisbane Status: Offline Points: 6223 |
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I don't think this track today will deter either of them - it's going to be an epic battle. I'm sticking with Addeybb.
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8678 |
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Could Think It Over surprise them all? Will be his toughest test to date.
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Stainvita
Champion Joined: 10 Dec 2014 Location: Sydney Status: Offline Points: 1044 |
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Thanks Second Chance, I have been on the punters.com.au forum which is a lot busier than this one however I need to come back to this forum from time to time as it is more intelligent.
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If your hands aren't shaking you haven't put enough on.
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Mr Grieves
Champion Joined: 28 Jan 2014 Location: Canberra Status: Offline Points: 934 |
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With Samadoubt out it means Addeybb can control things, reckon he'll trot early then wind up the tempo from the 1000. Can turn the tables.
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