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Freshmen 2021 |
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robbo
Champion Joined: 28 Feb 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 1562 |
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Posted: 18 Mar 2021 at 3:41pm |
It's the time of the year when stallion announcements start to drop. So far:
- Farnan (Kia Ora) - Russian Camelot (TBC) - Hanseatic (Rosemont) - Bivouac (Darley NSW) - Pinatubo (Darley NSW) - Ghaiyyath (Darley Victoria) - Earthlight (Darley Victoria) - Cool Aza Beel (Newhaven Park) - Fierce Impact (Leneva Park) Who have I missed? |
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Second Chance
Champion Joined: 02 Dec 2007 Status: Online Points: 45319 |
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Ole Kirk (Vinery) comes to mind Robbo.
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robbo
Champion Joined: 28 Feb 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 1562 |
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Indeed. |
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Red Hare
Champion Joined: 12 Jan 2015 Location: Victoria Status: Offline Points: 4233 |
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Keen to see how Fierce Impact goes. I think he’ll be a good one for entry-level traders in the early years.
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rem286
Champion Joined: 17 Mar 2015 Status: Offline Points: 766 |
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Kings Legacy (Coolmore)
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rem286
Champion Joined: 17 Mar 2015 Status: Offline Points: 766 |
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Anders still headed to Widden?
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Red Hare
Champion Joined: 12 Jan 2015 Location: Victoria Status: Offline Points: 4233 |
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Not a ‘freshman’ per se, but certainly new to our shores... Begs the question - why not stand him in NZ where the Iffraaj line has done so well?
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Kimberley Mine
Champion Joined: 01 Oct 2013 Status: Offline Points: 1517 |
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Same reason they sent High Chap to Australia after his initial success in NZ: money. There's more money, they can charge higher fees, and there are more mares in Australia. Plus Almanzor is already shuttling to NZ.
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robbo
Champion Joined: 28 Feb 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 1562 |
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Yep - announced overnight. Thoughts on the $16.5K? |
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Second Chance
Champion Joined: 02 Dec 2007 Status: Online Points: 45319 |
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Robbo I was very much taken by his sole Graded (Group 3) success, and more recently his dead last in the Coolmore followed by a 14th in the Oakleigh Plate.
They're virtually obliged to stand him at that advertised fee imo.
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Red Hare
Champion Joined: 12 Jan 2015 Location: Victoria Status: Offline Points: 4233 |
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$55,000 for Farnan.
Bit over the top isn’t it?
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Second Chance
Champion Joined: 02 Dec 2007 Status: Online Points: 45319 |
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Without question imo.
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Red Hare
Champion Joined: 12 Jan 2015 Location: Victoria Status: Offline Points: 4233 |
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He'll stand at Kia Ora, so location has no impact on his market - not a negative one anyway. They could barely lay a glove on him as a 2yo. When they did (literally, in the MM) he was beaten. Again, no negative impact. Synthetic hoof filler applied prior to that solitary 2yo defeat and wasn't reported as 'off' until the beginning of his spring 3yo campaign. So, he's won the Slipper whilst racing with whatever foot issue he had? Virtual no-show for that spring 3yo. What happened in the Run To The Rose is a conundrum. Visually, he's gone to hard - yet the clock watchers suggest the pitchforks should be put back in the rack. Nonetheless, the only two facts remaining in the public sphere are that the jockey was rubbed out on a handling charge AND the synthetic hoof filler was reapplied before his next start. So, did the ride mask or exacerbate the underlying issue? If his 2yo campaign is the only consideration, then you might argue that $55,000 is not enough... but the customer base doesn't have the luxury of ignoring the macroeconomic conditions. "Same as Capitalist and Vancouver" is the message from the stud farm. That's a fairly 'safe' statement, given the gap between those two on the scoreboard - in the barn AND on the track. The results from his first four seasons (two crops of racing age) could land anywhere in the middle and they would say they got it right. The buyers, on the other hand, might argue that it's a tough sell to suggest that Farnan has the maternal line to sit at the same table as either of the two benchmark colts. The roaring success of his first crop, in addition to his workrate (averaging almost 230 covers per season) mean that Capitalist's will almost certainly increase, and that new fee will likely ignore the 2020 discount. Vancouver, on the other hand, might find himself priced to meet the market. It'll be interesting to see who the buyers are at $55,000.
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robbo
Champion Joined: 28 Feb 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 1562 |
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That's an excellent and though-provoking post, RH. It's worthwhile remembering that neither Vancouver nor (more pertinently) Capitalist trained on as three year olds either. He is a son of NASD, who has been retired, from a bloody good mare by Street Cry. There's a lot to like.
Personally, $44K would have been about right, and is probably closer to the real fee. What's the guess on Vancouver this year? $20? |
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Second Chance
Champion Joined: 02 Dec 2007 Status: Online Points: 45319 |
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Realize people don't think this way, but here's the 3yo records of those he beat into 2nd or 3rd place in the Autumn at 2:
Global Quest: legless from about 6 starts North Pacific: non-winner from about 5 starts Tagaloa: Gp 3 winner from about 6 starts Blondeau: midweek winner from 6 or 7 starts Away Game: non-winner from 4 starts Mamaragan: non-winner from 6 starts. All up 2 wins from about 33 starts. |
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Red Hare
Champion Joined: 12 Jan 2015 Location: Victoria Status: Offline Points: 4233 |
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Bivouac hasn't won the Slipper, but by gee, he's lit up the Golden Rose AND the Newmarket at 3yo. Then carried that into the spring of 2020 for a fairly impressive 12 month block.
Darley have already priced Pinatubo at $44,000 so you wouldn't expect to see Bivouac too far removed from that figure. Higher than Astern and Exosphere, yes, but certainly not at the Trapeze Artist or The Autumn Sun extreme. The $55,000 for Farnan is looking more and more out on a limb.
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Red Hare
Champion Joined: 12 Jan 2015 Location: Victoria Status: Offline Points: 4233 |
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A fair measuring stick, but the Slipper alone omits Hungry Heart, Dame Giselle, King's Legacy, Personal & Thermosphere from the sample. All G1/G2 winners after the fact. Also have to allow Away Game some concessions after an 8/9 month 2yo campaign - including an open age assignment. Sure, he's been gifted a few tap-ins along the way, but he did win a pretty good Slipper. Was it as good as Capitalist? Not even close. Vancouver? Probably. They say Mr Krishnan is a lucky man, so perhaps he's on the money. Personally, I think $33,000 would look much more realistic against the $44,000 Darley are asking for Pinatubo.
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Red Hare
Champion Joined: 12 Jan 2015 Location: Victoria Status: Offline Points: 4233 |
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Surprised (sort of... not really) to see Doubtland retired.
$16,500 is a ‘thin air’ price point, but it’s certainly competitive in Vic - a $50k yearling would return enough profit to go again.
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Kimberley Mine
Champion Joined: 01 Oct 2013 Status: Offline Points: 1517 |
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Cool Aza Beel looks like he's in Vic to fill the ecological niche left behind by Reset and Rebel Raider. Zabeel sire line, no Danehill, quality mare line. Form-wise the horse he finished 2nd to in the Waikato Stud Slipper has gone on to win 4 more sprint stakes in NZ (got found out at 1600m), one from the Karaka Million has since won at Gr-3 level, and one is racing competitively on Saturdays at the Valley. Magnus and Al Maher mares will probably make up a lot of his mates.
To me the sticky point for Russian Camelot is that when he faced quality competition who were fully healthy, he always found one or two better. Looking through the PP's, there's a long list of "headed at 100m" or "headed at 150m." His win in the Underwood was over Arcadia Queen on soft ground with bar plates on -- the next out she had her feet right and she ran by him like she had a flight to catch. The form in the SA Derby he won is awful...of the top 10 finishers, only two other than RC have won a race (any race!), one horse won a BM64 at Sandown, and the other one won a 0-60 at Strathalbyn. Pinatubo and Blue Point have the same starting fee ($44k), and TBH although Pinatubo has the better female family, Blue Point was a better, more durable racehorse.
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Red Hare
Champion Joined: 12 Jan 2015 Location: Victoria Status: Offline Points: 4233 |
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$66,000 for Bivouac.
Fumbled on the goal line.
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Second Chance
Champion Joined: 02 Dec 2007 Status: Online Points: 45319 |
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Now $55k for Ole Kirk.
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Sister Dot
Premium Joined: 25 Nov 2009 Status: Offline Points: 4878 |
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How many stallions does Australia need? Does the supply exceed the demand? Imagine the quality of the horses we could race if we only bred from successful stallions who raced on until at least four and retired sound.
Edited by Sister Dot - 21 Apr 2021 at 12:58pm |
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“Where in this wide world can man find nobility without pride, friendship without envy, or beauty without vanity? Here where grace is laced with muscle and strength by gentleness confined”
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acacia alba
Champion Joined: 31 Oct 2010 Location: Hunter Valley Status: Offline Points: 41248 |
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Good Grief !!!
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animals before people.
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Sister Dot
Premium Joined: 25 Nov 2009 Status: Offline Points: 4878 |
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I think North Pacific $20,000 +
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“Where in this wide world can man find nobility without pride, friendship without envy, or beauty without vanity? Here where grace is laced with muscle and strength by gentleness confined”
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Red Hare
Champion Joined: 12 Jan 2015 Location: Victoria Status: Offline Points: 4233 |
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$71,500 for Wootton Bassett.
Seventy. Fecking. One.
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robbo
Champion Joined: 28 Feb 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 1562 |
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Any thoughts from the collective on Prague? I am strongly considering him this year - obviously an expensive son of Redouté's with a good page and a ripper type. He showed good ability in proper Group Ones like the Newmarket and the All Aged.
He is a three-quarter to Stratum Star, which isn't a glowing recommendation at the moment, although it would be premature to judge him on two year olds. |
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Second Chance
Champion Joined: 02 Dec 2007 Status: Online Points: 45319 |
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Maybe at $11k Robbo.
Note he's 16.2 so take that into account.
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robbo
Champion Joined: 28 Feb 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 1562 |
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The 16.2 is actually a positive - mare is only 15.2 and needs some scope. Principal reason that she is in foal to Flying Artie.
And agree 100% on the fee. |
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rem286
Champion Joined: 17 Mar 2015 Status: Offline Points: 766 |
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I am looking at him too robbo. G1 performer at 2 and went on to run well in a couple of G1 as a 3 year old. Hopefully going out to look at him in the flesh in the coming days.
$16,500 doesn't look too bad compared to some of the other colts of his crop.
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robbo
Champion Joined: 28 Feb 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 1562 |
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I'm not going to get to the Hunter for a little while, so any opinions/photos of a physical inspection would be awesome! |
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