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The Trump Presidency cont. |
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Passing Through
Champion Joined: 09 Jan 2013 Location: At home Status: Offline Points: 79532 |
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Yes herd immunity.
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Passing Through
Champion Joined: 09 Jan 2013 Location: At home Status: Offline Points: 79532 |
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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That's exactly how it works .... They will never have to face that problem again.
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TJMitchell
Champion Joined: 29 Jun 2014 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 16915 |
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No wonder macca loves the great man. You're either trolling or not as smart as you think you are.
Herd mentality
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Time is a flat circle
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Passing Through
Champion Joined: 09 Jan 2013 Location: At home Status: Offline Points: 79532 |
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marble
Champion Joined: 12 Jan 2008 Location: Brisbane Status: Offline Points: 6223 |
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more like terd mentality TJ
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stayer
Champion Joined: 10 Aug 2010 Status: Offline Points: 21897 |
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Oh God we're back to this. The dreaded warped stats pic.
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rusty nails
Champion Joined: 20 Mar 2013 Location: Sydney Status: Offline Points: 11391 |
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Why is it warped?
As an aside you hear the Florida Governor is hiding new infection rates? How good!
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stayer
Champion Joined: 10 Aug 2010 Status: Offline Points: 21897 |
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Always A for effort, Rusty.
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Baghdad Bob
Champion Joined: 10 Feb 2010 Location: Victoria Status: Offline Points: 13676 |
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. How our theory works to Trump’s advantage In recent weeks, we’ve focused on what professional pollsters call the difference between an ‘intention’ given in response to a poll and an ‘expectation’ of the outcome. The intention identifies the particular candidate you intend to vote for. The expectation identifies the candidate you expect to win regardless of your personal vote. Often, the two answers are the same. In 1984, most voters said they intended
to vote for Ronald Reagan and most voters also said they expected Reagan to win.
The same happened with Bill Clinton in 1996. Where things get interesting is
when one candidate is ahead in the intention question, but a different candidate
is ahead in the expectation question. In effect, many respondents to the poll
are saying, ‘I’m voting for A, but I expect B to win.’ Biden is ahead among those who state an intention, but Trump is ahead when the same people are asked their expectation. We know from extensive research going back decades that the expectation question has much higher predictive value whenever the intention and expectation questions produce different results. A comparison to 2016 is inappropriate because the intention to vote for Hillary Clinton and expectation that she would win were the same (even though both were wrong). It’s when they differ that you put more weight on expectation. The reason the expectation question is more accurate at predicting elections is because the views of a much larger group than just the polling subjects are included. People answering the questions base their answer on the weight of opinion in their social networks (family, friends, neighbours and co-workers). Polls are more accurate when they include larger groups. That’s what happens when you ask subjects about expectations. Also, this is a ‘national’ poll which means little since we don’t have national elections; we have state-by-state elections. You can only win California once, even if you get four million more votes. When you boil this down just to the battleground states, the Trump advantage is even more pronounced and is moving in Trump’s direction. As they say on Wall Street, ‘The trend is your friend’. |
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Baghdad Bob
Champion Joined: 10 Feb 2010 Location: Victoria Status: Offline Points: 13676 |
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That was not my theory, but one I got in a newsletter.
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brokecell
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2020 Status: Offline Points: 414 |
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Obviously for a distance and we dont vote their but interesting
Australians' support for US plunges to record lows under TrumpFor our free coronavirus pandemic coverage, learn more here. |
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Baghdad Bob
Champion Joined: 10 Feb 2010 Location: Victoria Status: Offline Points: 13676 |
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brokecell, that article was written by Matthew Knott who is the North American based correspondent for the Sydney Morning Herald. How would he know what Australians back here in Australia think about Trump ? Secondly how many Australians would be putting their minds as to who wins the US election when we are all far more concerned with COVID 19. The sampling for that assumption would be minuscule and of little to no relevance.
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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Trump has really achieved in the Middle East ...
Deserves the Worlds appreciation for what he has pulled off there. Best POTUS of my recent times ... My no 1 was Roosevelt of course but Trump is by far the best since . |
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Baghdad Bob
Champion Joined: 10 Feb 2010 Location: Victoria Status: Offline Points: 13676 |
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Macca , I presume you mean FD Roosevelt not Teddy Roosevelt, you cannot be that old.
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brokecell
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2020 Status: Offline Points: 414 |
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People the world over are thinking of the most powwerful leader in the world. Perrhaps even more with covid as they may have more time on there hands. A major reason for the plunge in support for the US and its President appears to be the country's failure to contain the coronavirus, which has killed more than 194,000 Americans according to Johns Hopkins University. The survey, conducted in June and July this year, found that just 33 per cent of Australians have a favourable view of the US, down from 50 per cent a year ago. This is the lowest favourability rating since Pew first polled Australians in 2003. Australians' support for the US peaked in 2013, the start of Barack Obama's second term, with 66 per cent of respondents saying they had a favourable perception of our most important military ally. This trend was repeated around the world, with favourable perceptions of the US falling by 27 percentage points over the past year in Japan, 16 per cent in the United Kingdom and 13 points in Germany. |
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Baghdad Bob
Champion Joined: 10 Feb 2010 Location: Victoria Status: Offline Points: 13676 |
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The survey, conducted in June and July this year, found that just 33 per cent of Australians have a favourable view of the US, down from 50 per cent a year ago.
Meaningless , 33% of those surveyed. How many of Australia's population were surveyed ? |
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brokecell
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2020 Status: Offline Points: 414 |
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watever BB, you just keep rationallising any unfavorable news as false, incommplete, whatever. Life for you is more comffortable that way
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TJMitchell
Champion Joined: 29 Jun 2014 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 16915 |
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Roosevelt one of the greats. Truman, his successor, wasn't too bad himself. They did take over from a few real bad ones though lol.
Trump...I'd probably rank him just above Buchanan.
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Time is a flat circle
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Baghdad Bob
Champion Joined: 10 Feb 2010 Location: Victoria Status: Offline Points: 13676 |
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bc, I have to call out failings on all sides of politics. As an examples, if the Democrats had put up a better candidate I believe they would beat Trump. Morrison has yet to take the initiative over state premiers over COVID 19, and appears weak IMO.
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Baghdad Bob
Champion Joined: 10 Feb 2010 Location: Victoria Status: Offline Points: 13676 |
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Buchanan he was president before the Civil War....your opinion could only be based on what you have read of US history.
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Shrunk in the Wash
Champion Joined: 25 Mar 2016 Status: Offline Points: 9890 |
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Wow, that’s vital info. Hope it doesn’t sway the election
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TJMitchell
Champion Joined: 29 Jun 2014 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 16915 |
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You really need a sense of humour BB |
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Time is a flat circle
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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I just heard Jim Molan say , The World has never needed Strong American Leadership and Power any more than NOW and if Trump fails in this coming election we won't get it.
Can you TDS lot ,look past yr nose. |
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rusty nails
Champion Joined: 20 Mar 2013 Location: Sydney Status: Offline Points: 11391 |
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Jim Molan?
fiddlesticks He’s as mad as a rabid dog. In terms of world domination, the orange idiot has literally made it his business to weaken American alliances. |
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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I can't believe that Rusty ... Not a nice way to speak of a man with his Service record.
Does not read well for you Rusty. |
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Shammy Davis
Champion Joined: 14 Dec 2012 Status: Online Points: 8588 |
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rusty nails
Champion Joined: 20 Mar 2013 Location: Sydney Status: Offline Points: 11391 |
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Cringe worthy is reducing your policy to primary school name calling.....
Shame you can’t afford to advertise Anything....... |
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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Primary School Name calling Rusty ...... Did you forget what you called Jim Molan ....... In case you didn't know Rusty ... and SHAME on you.
------------------------------ During his military career, Jim Molan was commanding officer of the 6th Battalion, Royal Australian Regiment, commander of the 1st Brigade, commander of the 1st Division and its Deployable Joint Force Headquarters, and commander of the Australian Defence College. In April 2004, he deployed for a year to Iraq to serve as Chief of Operations for the new Headquarters Multinational Force in Iraq. He has been awarded the Distinguished Service Cross, as well as the Legion of Merit by the U.S. government. He retired from the Australian Army in 2008, |
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rusty nails
Champion Joined: 20 Mar 2013 Location: Sydney Status: Offline Points: 11391 |
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I know who he is.
He’s the nutbag that was posting anti Muslim rubbish that he lifted from far right wackos in UK. Then when he didn’t like his ranking on the senate at the last election, he tried to blow the joint up, ran amok and ran as an independent. And then the stoopid pr1cks let him back in,when a vacancy occurred shortly after.
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