. How our theory works to Trump’s advantage

In recent weeks, we’ve focused on what professional pollsters call the difference between an ‘intention’ given in response to a poll and an ‘expectation’ of the outcome. The intention identifies the particular candidate you intend to vote for. The expectation identifies the candidate you expect to win regardless of your personal vote.

Often, the two answers are the same. In 1984, most voters said they intended to vote for Ronald Reagan and most voters also said they expected Reagan to win. The same happened with Bill Clinton in 1996. Where things get interesting is when one candidate is ahead in the intention question, but a different candidate is ahead in the expectation question. In effect, many respondents to the poll are saying, ‘I’m voting for A, but I expect B to win.’

Biden is ahead among those who state an intention, but Trump is ahead when the same people are asked their expectation. We know from extensive research going back decades that the expectation question has much higher predictive value whenever the intention and expectation questions produce different results.

A comparison to 2016 is inappropriate because the intention to vote for Hillary Clinton and expectation that she would win were the same (even though both were wrong). It’s when they differ that you put more weight on expectation.

The reason the expectation question is more accurate at predicting elections is because the views of a much larger group than just the polling subjects are included. People answering the questions base their answer on the weight of opinion in their social networks (family, friends, neighbours and co-workers). Polls are more accurate when they include larger groups. That’s what happens when you ask subjects about expectations.

Also, this is a ‘national’ poll which means little since we don’t have national elections; we have state-by-state elections. You can only win California once, even if you get four million more votes. When you boil this down just to the battleground states, the Trump advantage is even more pronounced and is moving in Trump’s direction. As they say on Wall Street, ‘The trend is your friend’.