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Update for International CDR from Steve Miller

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    Posted: 24 Apr 2020 at 6:42pm
Hi all

Steve Miller updated the International list of chefs-de-race recently. He included a couple that John H added to the ANZ update last year. The images did not work but I am sure that will not affect anything.

DARSHAAN (GB): Chef-de-Race (Solid)

Bay horse, 1981 – Shirley Heights (GB)-Delsy (FR) (by Abdos (GB)) October, 2019


Stamina reinforcer

 

DARSHAAN, a son of Shirley Heights out of the Abdos mare Delsy, was a top-class performer on the racetrack for the Aga Khan. In 1984 he won the French Derby and was the highest rated French-trained three-year-old in the International Classifications (IC) that year, as well as third-highest in Europe, behind El Gran Senor and Chief Singer. Darshaan stood in County Kildare at the Aga Khan’s Gilltown Stud farm. He was the leading sire in France in 2003 and leading broodmare sire in Great Britain & Ireland in 2002.

 

His Group/Grade 1 winning progeny include: Dalakhani (Arc winner and European Horse of the year, 2003), Kotashaan (winner of five G1 races in the US, including the BC Turf), Mark Of Esteem (2,000 Guineas and Queen Elizabeth II Stakes winner), Hellenic and Key Change (G1 Yorkshire Oaks winners), Mutamam (G1 Canadian Stakes winner), Cerulean Sky (G1 Prix Saint-Alary winner), Dilshaan (G1 Racing Post Trophy), Olden Times (G1 Prix Jean Prat), Mezzo Soprano (G1 Prix Vermille winner) and Necklace (G1 Moyglare Stud Stakes winner). Darshaan is also the dam sire of a host of G1 winners, including Ascot Gold Cup winners Enzeli and Estimate, High Chaparral (Derby and Irish Derby winner), Marienbard (Arc winner), Ebadiyla (G1 Prix Royal-Oak and Irish Oaks winner), Zainta (G1 Prix de Diane winner), Sendawar (G1 Poule d’Essai des Poulains winner), Edabiya (G1 Moyglare Stud Stakes winner), Islington (G1 Nassau Stakes, Yorkshire Oaks, BC Filly & Mare Turf), etc.


In addition to such high calibre Group/Grade winners, typically seen at their best at middle-distance to staying trips as mature individuals, the following progeny-winning sample of 434 (3-y-os and above, Great Britain & Ireland) is distributed across the following distance range:

 

AWD

5f

6f

7f

8f

9f

10f

11f

12f

13f

14f+

11.5

0

1

10

33

21

87

56

125

14

87

Source: The Statistical Record (Weatherbys)

 

 

Of this robust sample a clear concentration of progeny winners (369, or some 85%) are seen at 10 furlongs or further, with a strong concentration (52%) of progeny winners at 12 furlongs or more, compared with just under 15% at 9 furlongs or less. This is a strong indicator of distance prepotency falling into the Solid/Professional range. The only reason for not including him as a chef-de-race earlier was that his own sire Shirley Heights was already doing the job as a Classic/Professional, but now that Shirley Heights is dropping off the edge of CDR influence in many pedigrees, we are secure in introducing Darshaan as the prime individual responsible for reinforcing the stamina influence of his sire. With a clear majority of progeny winners seen at 12 furlongs we place him squarely in the Solid category.

 

Darshaan’s stallion sons High Chaparral and Dalakhani are also on our watch list as new CDRs, but in the meantime Darshaan is included on the official list as a SOLID influence.

 

 

LINAMIX (FR): Chef-de-Race (Classic/Solid)

Grey horse, 1987 Mendez (FR)–Lunadix (FR) (by Breton (GB)) October, 2019

 

Middle-distance influence

LINAMIX, by Mendez out of the Breton mare Lunadix was a top-class mile to 10 furlong performer at Group level, including winning the G1 Poule d’Essai des Poulains (French 2,000 Guineas). However,


the grey was a source of high-class performers who typically stay further than he did on the racetrack, with a concentration of winning distances for his progeny at around 10 to 12 furlongs. The stallion retired from stud duty in 2007 and died at the Aga Khan Stud in 2016.

 

His best-performing offspring include, Sagamix (Arc winner), Slickly (G1 Grand Prix de Paris and Prix du Moulin winner), Fragrant Mix (G1 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud winner), Reefscape (G1 Prix du Cadran winner), Cherry Mix (G1 winner in Italy and Germany), Carlotamix (G1 winner of the Criterium International), Manighar (G1 winner in Australia), Alpine Rose (G1 Prix Jean Romanet winner) Rajsaman (multiple Group & Listed winner), Martaline (multiple Group & Listed winner), etc.

 

During his career at stud Linamix was leading sire in France in 1998 and 2004 and was that country’s leading broodmare sire in 2012.

 

 

AWD

5f

6f

7f

8f

9f

10f

11f

12f

13f

14f+

10.9

0

1

6

16

10

30

7

24

10

17

Source: The Statistical Record (Weatherbys)

 

In addition to his Group-class winners mentioned above, from a winning sample of 121 (3-y-os and above, Great Britain & Ireland) some 72% of Linamix’s winning progeny fall within the 8 to 12 furlongs bracket with a concentration of winners coming at 10 to 12 furlongs, making him a suitable candidate for chef-de-race CLASSIC/SOLID status. His influence on the breed continues through such stallion sons as Martaline and Rajsaman.

 

 

 

 

UNBRIDLED’S SONG (USA): Chef-de-Race (Intermediate)

Grey/Roan horse, 1993 – Unbridled (USA)-Trolley Song (USA) (by Caro (GB)) October, 2019


More of the similar

UNBRIDLED’S SONG was foaled in 1993 in Kentucky by 1990 Kentucky Derby winner Unbridled out of the Caro mare Trolley Song. As a two-year-old Unbridled’s Song won the 1995 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in a near record time on only his third appearance on a racecourse. In his three-year-old season he beat US Champion three-year-old colt Skip Away in the Florida Derby. He went on to win the Wood Memorial a couple of weeks before the Kentucky Derby, but in so doing sustained a quarter crack to his hoof and finished a beaten favourite in the Kentucky Derby itself. Lightly raced at four before being retired to stud in 1997.

At stud the soundness of Unbridled’s Song’s offspring has been questioned and he has developed an industry reputation for producing speed, precocity and fragility. His Grade 1 winners include: Midshipman (winner of the G1 BC Juvenile and Del Mar Futurity), Unrivaled Belle (G1 BC Ladies’ Classic), Unbridled Elaine (G1 BC Distaff winner), Octave (Mother Goose Stakes), Thorn Song (winner of the G1 Shoemaker Mile Stakes and Shadwell Turf Mile), Splendid Bended (Hollywood Starlet Stakes winner), Zensational (Bing Crosby Stakes winner), Political Force (Suburban Handicap), First Defence (Forego Stakes winner), Buddha (Wood Memorial Stakes), Emcee (Forego Stakes), Magnificent Song (G1 Garden City Breeders’ Cup Stakes winner), Songandaprayer (Fountain of Youth Stakes) and Marylebone (winner of the G1 Matron Stakes).

 

From a small sample of progeny winners (3-y-os and above, Great Britain & Ireland) over 82% are seen at 7 or 8 furlongs. While this is compelling, in percentage terms, the sample size is too small to draw definitive conclusions, except that the same is corroborated by a naturally much larger winning progeny sample in the US and his AWD in GB of 7.9 furlongs is also closely matched by 7.8 furlongs in the US. On this basis, with around an 80% concentration of his progeny winning at either a mile or just shy of a mile, an INTERMEDIATE designation seems the most appropriate, supporting his own sire Unbridled chef-de-race designation as a speed influence (B/I).

 

 

DUBAWI (IRE): Chef-de-Race (Intermediate/Solid)

Bay horse, 2002 – Dubai Millennium (GB)-Zomaradah (GB) (by Deploy (GB)) October, 2019


Split designation

 

DUBAWI by Dubai Millennium out of the Deploy mare Zomaradah was bred in Ireland at Sheikh Mohammed’s Darley Stud, one of the only crop of foals sired by Dubai Millennium (who died of grass sickness in 2001). The winner of the G1 National Stakes at 2 and the Irish Guineas and G1 Jacques le Marois at 3, when he was also placed in the Derby. The joint champion 2- and 3-year-old in Ireland in 2004 and 2005 and the top-rated 3-y-o miler in Ireland and France in 2005.

 

At stud Dubawi sired some 41 G1 winners, comprising: Postponed, Prince Bishop, Monterosso, Lucky Nine, Mubtaahij, Benbatl, Old Persian, Akeed Mofeed, Al Kazeem, New Bay, Too Darn Hot, Sheikhzayedroad, Wild Illusion, Srikandi, Coronet, Wuheida, Zarak, Erupt, Secret Admirer, Hunter’s Light, Night Of Thunder, North America, Tiger Tees, Arabian Queen, Journey, Almanaar, Dubawi Heights, Makfi, Bateel, Kitesurf, Left Hand, Shamal Wind, Waldpark, Poet’s Voice, Ghaiyyath, Sobetsu, Red Dubawi, Quorto, Nezwaah, Happy Archer, and Willow Magic, as well as a host of other G2, G3 and Listed winners.

 

From a larger sample of 245 progeny winners (3-y-os and above, Great Britain & Ireland) the breakdown across the distance range follows.

 

AWD

5f

6f

7f

8f

9f

10f

11f

12f

13f

14f+

9.2

11

18

32

67

14

36

8

40

5

14

Source: The Statistical Record (Weatherbys)

 

 

While Dubawi is capable of siring progeny across the distance range (which would normally rule him out as a CDR) he is also showing enough prepotency at 8 to 12 furlongs (some 67.3% of the above sample) to bring him to our attention as a CDR. Within this bracket the stallion is spiking at 8 furlongs and 12 furlongs with a flattening at distances both outside and between these spikes. After due consideration we deem this sufficient to make him suitable for the unusual designation as a split INTERMEDIATE/SOLID in the chef-de-race series.


SHAMARDAL (USA): Chef-de-Race (Intermediate/Classic)

Bay horse, 2002 – Giant’s Causeway (USA)-Helsinki (GB) (by Machiavellian (USA)) October, 2019

A concentration of milers

 

SHAMARDAL by Giant’s Causeway out of the Machiavellian mare Helsinki was an emphatic winner of the G2 Vintage Stakes and G1 Dewhurst Stakes at 2 (when trained by Mark Johnston in England) and French Guineas, French Derby, and G1 St. James’s Palace Stakes winner at 3 (trained by Godolphin’s Saeed bin Suroor).

 

He stands at Sheikh Mohammed’s Kildangan Stud in Ireland and is the sire of the brilliant two-year old Pinatubo (winner of all six of his outings at 2, including two G1s and a G2, comprising the G1 Dewhurst Stakes, G1 National Stakes and G2 Vintage Stakes), Lope de Vega (French 2,000 Guineas and French Derby), Mukhadrum (winner of the Eclipse Stakes), Able Friend (multiple G1 winner of the Hong Kong Mile, Steward’s Cup, Queen’s Silver Jubilee Cup, Champions Mile), Dan Excel (Champions Mile winner), Lumiere (G1 Cheveley Park Stakes winner), etc.

 

 

AWD

5f

6f

7f

8f

9f

10f

11f

12f

13f

14f+

8.0

31

36

49

70

18

49

3

11

1

4

Source: The Statistical Record (Weatherbys)

 

 

Of the wider winning progeny sample of 272 (3-y-os and above, Great Britain & Ireland) some 68.4% feature in the bracket of 7 furlongs to 10 furlongs, with a notable spike of almost 26% of winners coming solely at 8 furlongs, with equal minor spikes balancing on either side of the mile, at 7 furlongs and 10 furlongs. This suggests Intermediate prepotency, with just enough of a concentration at 9-10 furlongs to pull us into a split INTERMEDIATE/CLASSIC designation.


FASLIYEV (USA): Chef-de-Race (Brilliant)

Bay horse, 1997 – Nureyev (USA)-Mr P’s Princess (USA) (Mr Prospector (USA)) October, 2019

 

 

All about prepotent speed

 

FASLIYEV, by Nureyev out of the Mr Prospector mare Mr P’s Princess, was bred in the United States and trained by Aidan O’Brien in Ireland. He retired unbeaten after just five races (including two G1s and a G3) after sustaining injury when being trained for the G1 Dewhurst Stakes. He was the highest rated two-year-old of 1999 and European champion two-year-old.

 

He began a career at stud with Coolmore in Ireland, from where he was shuttled to Australia for the 2001, 2002 and 2004 southern hemisphere seasons. He was sold in 2007 to Japanese interests and stood at the Yushun Stallion Station from 2008 until his death (from a severe diaphragmatic hernia) in Japan aged 16. As a stallion he sired over 500 winners, including some 38 stakes winners, including Carry On Katie (G1 Cheveley Park Stakes winner), Happy Holiday (Australian horse of the year), Chineur (G2 King Stand Stakes winner), City Leader (G2 Royal Lodge Stakes winner), Amico Fritz (G2 & G3 winner in Germany) and Lady Deauville (G3 winner in Germany and multiple Listed race winner in GB and France), etc.

 

 

AWD

5f

6f

7f

8f

9f

10f

11f

12f

13f

14f+

7.0

82

64

75

69

15

15

4

7

0

2

Source: The Statistical Record (Weatherbys)

 

 

Of a large progeny-winning sample of 333 (3-y-os and above, Great Britain & Ireland) no less than 87% are seen at distances from 5 furlongs to 8 furlongs, with over 66% coming at 5-7 furlongs. This is as compelling a case as you could wish for in support of BRILLIANT chef-de-race status, from a profile showing an exaggerated prepotent bias toward speed.


 

 

STEVE MILLER is an author, correspondent, columnist and bloodstock analyst, based in London. He has also been a thoroughbred owner having had successful horses in training with Mark Johnston (Flat) and the late Toby Balding (National Hunt). He has written on horse racing and breeding issues for Raceform Update and writes a regular column of big-race previews on the Flat, based on the Dosage system, for the Racing Post Weekender. His observations on the thoroughbred racehorse have appeared over the years in the Sporting Life, Racing Post, Pacemaker & Thoroughbred Breeder, the Blood-Horse, Raceform and Timeform publications and the BBC. He worked in close collaboration with Dr Steve Roman since the inclusion of Sadler’s Wells on the chef-de-race list in August 1998. Certain examples of his analytical work on racing and breeding are referenced in Steve Roman’s book Dosage: Pedigree & Performance (pub. by Russell Meerdink).


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Apr 2020 at 7:28pm
Thanks Progold.

Updated quite understandably from a world-wide perspective, however will only be updating my records with a couple.  That said consider it important that someone steps up and updates the Chefs, and am very appreciative of Steve and John's efforts.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote diomed Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Apr 2020 at 10:54pm
It says in the Steve Miller bio above that Sadler's Wells (1981) was added to the Chef-de-race list in 1998. 
Now Darshaan (1981) is added to the Chef-de-race list in 2020, 22 years after Sadler's Wells was added.
The conclusion has to be than all Dosage Index calculations from 1998 to 2020 that included Darshaan were a bit wrong. 
I estimate that 3,100 horses in my data have Sadler's Wells and Darshaan in the first four generations.
.....................................................................................................................................

The average race distance in the UK is 9.2f from my calculations.
There is a question in my mind about the Weatherbys average winning dystances (AWD).

For example. Deep Run is listed in their 2012 Statistical record with 15.4f AWD
5f (0), 6f (0), 7f (10), 8f (8), 9f (0), 10f (3), 11f (1), 12f (9), 13f (0), 14f & 14f+ (221).
His progeny had 150 wins, with 221 at 14f or 14f+
Without knowing the answer I would guess these 221 wins were not flat races.
That imo is the first problem with AWD.
I think the Statistical record is no longer produced.  Perhaps the 2012 I have is the last edition.

That brings me to the AWD shown in the above post for Darshaan, Linamix, Dubawi, Shamardal, Fasliyev.
The 2012 Weatherbys Statistical record shows AWD for those as 11.5, 10.9, 9.0, 8.0, 7.0.
You will notice that the only one that differs above is Dubawi 9.2f.

The real point about AWD is this:  AWD is the progeny winning distance.
If the average race distance is 9.2F then Darshaan with an AWD of 11.5f must have a stamina influence of not 11.5f but 13.8f [ (13.8f + 9.2f)/2 = 11.5f ].
I assume that the mares he was bred to were breed average i.e. had an AWD of 9.2f.

That changes the number for me to

Sire AWD Avg Real Chef Guess
Darshaan 11.5 9.2 13.8 Solid? Professional
Linamix 10.9 9.2 12.6 Classic/Solid Solid
Dubawi 9.2 9.2 9.2 Intermediate/Solid? Classic
Shamardal 8 9.2 6.8 Intermediate/Classic? Intermediate
Fasliyev 7 9.2 4.8 Brilliant brilliant



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Progold Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 May 2020 at 6:11pm
Interesting points and a few comments on what you raise.

Firstly, with Darshaan, your conclusion that all Dosage Index calculations from 1998 to 2020 that included that stallion were a bit wrong, is true, sort of. Like the thoroughbred, dosage evolves, so what is true today may not have been true yesterday.

As Steve said  “The only reason for not including him as a chef-de-race earlier was that his own sire Shirley Heights was already doing the job as a Classic/Professional, but now that Shirley Heights is dropping off the edge of CDR influence in many pedigrees, we are secure in introducing Darshaan as the prime individual responsible for reinforcing the stamina influence of his sire.”

This enduring influence is both a good and bad thing. It is wonderful that we can go back and find these influences that endure, but it is one reason why Dr Roman was criticised for being too slow in allocating CDR status. He was happy to wait 20 years to ensure that he was accurate.

While you could argue that the DI without Darshaan has been “wrong” for the last 20 years, it could probably be argued that many were more accurate without his classification depending upon your use of dosages. In my view, the actual number really does not matter all that much. What is more important is how we use that profile to better understand the thoroughbred that is often in front of us. In practical terms, it is realistically only students of dosage such as myself that go back and look at historical dosages and would be able to tell you that when a horse won a certain race, his dosage profile was different to the modern one.

AWD is a guide that Steve Miller uses to support his case. I tend to have a look at them from time to time but they are not part of dosage. I use those listed on the Racing Post by the way. They are a great resource and I believe they update them constantly. Deep Run is listed as having an AWD of 13.4 furlongs on that for what it is worth. There are inherent dangers in using AWD and they are a tool that are useful in certain circumstances.

There is something of a fallacy that dosage is all about winning distance. Dr Roman invented his DI, a mathematical formula that aligns quite often to distance aptitude, but this was on the back of the works of Vuillier and Varola. Varola especially wrote more about developmental issues, and dosage is still based in this notion. A Brilliant rating for example can relate to pure speed, but usually it is speed that relates to the early 2yo and precocity. Stamina relates to the slower maturing types. It is not necessarily unrelated to speed, and that is why balance is talked about so often in dosage. If we take Zabeel as an example of a stallion who was responsible for a lot of the stamina we saw in ANZ for a generation, he was also quite a good source of speedy types like Reset, Bezeal Bay etc, but very few 2yo’s. Most didn’t come on until they were at least 4yo’s. His record in the VRC Derby is very ordinary when you consider how dominant he was in races past 2400m. His record in the later AJC Derby is much better when the colts had more of a chance to mature. A significant part of his stamina classification referred to his slow maturing progeny rather than their ability to run over a long distance.

We also have to remember that each stallion that is classified as a CDR comes with his own DI. If we look at the ones in the recent list we see

Darshaan             [-0.24/0.79]        [4-5-12-5-8]

Linamix                 [0.00/0.91]          [5-2-7-4-4]

Dubawi                 [0.43/2.00]          [5-8-14-1-2]

Shamardal           [0.57/2.36]          [7-10-25-0-0]

Fasliyev                [0.72/2.38]          [17-5-32-0-0]

 

Any classification has to take into account the rest of their pedigree to an extent, and this plays a role. Linamix as you can see with few CDR's in his profile is going to be dominated by whatever classification he is given whereas Fasliyev for example will retain a strong classic distribution among his progeny irrespective of his classification.

In a more practical sense if we take the case of Dubawi, while his AWD might well suit a classic rating, his progeny do not. The stallion’s record in the Classic 3yo races, which is what a classic rating is all about, is ordinary when we consider his overall record. What also complicates that stallion a little is that he shuttled between Australia and the UK, and there were some significant differences in the aptitude of his progeny in each country. Australia saw his best with horses like like Tiger Tees, Catkins and Srikandi who all performed at best over shorter trips. In the UK, he is equally as well known for horses like Al Kazeem, Monterosso and Postponed. His Intermediate/Solid classification reflects this relatively unusual duality in his stud performance. His case may just be a result of the tragic loss of his sire Dubai Millennium who would have probably reshaped the breed had he lived.

I hope that I have addressed some of the issues. The bottom line though is that dosage is a lot more than just a tool by which distance aptitude can be predicted. It is a tool through which we can learn more about the thoroughbred. The whole is often greater than the sum of the parts, as the saying goes. It has never been truer than in the thoroughbred and I think dosage can be used to help bring the parts together.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote diomed Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 May 2020 at 12:21am
In May 2015 on boards.ie /Sports/Horse Racing I wrote about the Dosage Index.

At that time I noted that 81 sires were split into two categories  from a total of about 180 sires.
In 1977 an article about dosage by Abram Hewitt appeared in the Blood-Horse magazine.
I may be very wrong but I think the split category chef-de-race sires arose not from a difference in the foals of these horses, but because of a difference of opinion between experts (Hewitt/Roman?) as to which category each sire should occupy.
Was the split categorisation a compromise, an unresolved difference of opinion?

Another fact I thought strange was Franco Varola decided to have 100 chef-de-race sires and stopped at that. That does not seem to me to be a good way to decide the quality of sires.

As I had gathered all the Group 1,2,3 race winners from GB/IRE/FR,GER/ITY and the USA Grade 1 winners from 1900 to 2015 I thought I would look at the numbers for the chef-de-race sires.
I have never seen published data of the racing distances of offspring of the newly appointed chef-de-race sires (or of the original chef-de-race sires).
We are expected to accept the categorisations.

Here are a few extracts from my thread on boards.ie
There are 4,598 sires that produced a Group race winner in Ireland, England, France, Italy, Germany, USA (Gr 1 only).
I counted the number of wins by the offspring of each sire at each distance from 5f to 20f (1f increments), and also did a calculation of the average winning distance.
For example Caerleon: 5f(1),6f(6),7f(13),8f(20),9f(8),10f(21),11f(4),12f(29),14f(5),15f(4),18f(1) – average 9.9f. There are few races at 9f and 11f, so I might adjust for that.

These seven sires have 100+ Group wins but are not chef-de-race sires:Caerleon; Danehill Dancer; Danehill; Dansili; Galileo; Pivotal; Storm Cat.
There are 48 non-chef-de-race sires with 50+ Group wins. Alleged has 93 wins (awd 11.3f), and Green Desert 92 wins (awd 7.1f).
Then you have the problem of good sires like Troy (7 offspring group wins) who had very short sire careers.

I am also going to review the Dosage Index chef-de-race classifications against my average winning distance calculations as I am not happy that almost half chef-de-race classifications were decided because two pedigree experts could not agree.

Danzig with 167 wins and an awd of 7.7f has an IC (intermediate/classic) designation, but so has Riverman with 120 wins and an awd of 9.1f.
Nureyev with 164 wins and an awd of 8.1f is a C (classic) designation, but Pharis with 94 offspring Group wins and an awd of 9.9 is a B (brilliant) classification
Pharis is categorised as a sire of speedier stock than Nureyev although his group winners were at 1.8f longer distance.
Pharis awd 9.9 (a brilliant sire) has 22 12f wins from 94 wins and 11 wins greater than 12f.
Nureyev awd 8.1f (a classic sire) has 12 12f wins from 164 wins with no wins greater than 12f.


I could list the Group race AWD (Group races) of all the chef-de-race sires but perhaps the originators or followers of the Dosage Index would supply the detailed data and let people judge.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote diomed Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 May 2020 at 1:21am
I looked up the Varola books a few minutes ago.
He listed 120 chef-de-race sires (not the 100 I said)
10 sires in the first series
30 sires in the second series
50 sires in the first series
20 sires in the first series

He does mention "split" for twelve sires: "I propose that the following split of points in dosage diagrams be considered when necessary".

Varola does mention in his 1974 book the problem of the difficulty of comparing the brilliant group to the other groups using British racing records.  "This problem has since been overcome through the recommendations of the Rosebery Committee, the creation of Pattern races ... North Atlantic countries, United States, France and Ireland - with Canada following the trend."

I thought Varola would use the Pattern races in his 1980 book but in the 346 pages I do not see it.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Progold Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 May 2020 at 1:13pm
Your focus on AWD is nothing to do with dosage though. It is probably a bit obtuse to criticise on the basis that dosage is not what you think it should be. 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote diomed Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 May 2020 at 11:42pm
Go ahead.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Take2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Oct 2022 at 5:00pm
Anyone ever hear of this horse quoted by Steve zmiller?                                                                     Happy Holiday (Australian horse of the year),
change is simply a destination on a journey reached by taking the first step (i said that) lol

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Oct 2022 at 5:04pm
Can't be this one eh?  Shocked Shocked


HAPPY HOLIDAY  (AUS) b. G, 2004 {13-a} DP = 3-3-18-0-0 (24) DI = 1.67   CD = 0.38 - 44 Starts, 2 Wins, 4 Places, 0 Shows Career Earnings: A$21,648
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Grey Affair Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Oct 2022 at 7:33pm
Possibly Austrian Horse Of The Year.

Happy Holiday (2001 horse by Fasliyev x Ms Calera, by Diesis ) won the 2004 Austrian Trial Stakes (after orig winner DQ'd) & 2004 Slovak 2000 Guineas.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Oct 2022 at 7:35pm
Aha!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Take2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Dec 2022 at 10:17am
Was once a deadset devotee of roman's methodology, and still do my (own) updates, have found that the classic points in horse pedigrees a very good indication of class and ability to throw good horse in a broodmare's pedigree, and have had all but Fasliyev, (stood in Aus for quite a while and did nothing of real note,) in the above list by Miller, listed as MY OWN CDR for a number of years, similar to what i did years ago with Danehill
Moved on from that,2018 despite updating continually




Edited by Take2 - 03 Dec 2022 at 10:22am
change is simply a destination on a journey reached by taking the first step (i said that) lol

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote diomed Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jan 2023 at 10:24pm
It might be interesting to a few readers to mention a 24 page article by J B Robertson in the 1912 copy of the annual book, The Bloodstock Breeders Review (produced annually for about 70 years) titled "The Heredity Of Racing Stamina In The Thoroughbred Horse".

In the article Robertson called Sprinters PP types; Intermediates PR types; Stayers RR types. 
He noted that a sprinter sire PP and a sprinter dam PP could only produce sprinter PP offspring. 
The same with a stayer sire and a stayer dam.  They could only produce stayer offspring. 
Intermediate parents PR would produce 25% sprinters, 50% intermediates, 25% stayers.

Robertson gives 13 tables of horses, sires, dam to illustrate his findings.
The last table shows 60 well known stallions with their "genetic composition" PP, PR, RR of each listed.
With each stallion he lists in twelve bands from 5f to 16f a count of the winners of the offspring of that sire.

Trenton (1881) produced:  1 sprinter PP; 7 intermediates PR; 16 stayers RR, with the obvious conclusion that Trenton was genetically a stayer.
Americus (1892) produced:  13 sprinters PP; 4 intermediates PR; 0 stayers RR, with the obvious conclusion that Americus was genetically a sprinter.

Was this work the forerunner of Varola's chef-de-race system, and later Steve Roman, and recently the Equinome/Plusvital "discovery" of the speed gene?

"Originality is the art of concealing your source"
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Take2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jan 2023 at 11:21am
There is a degree of accuracy in using systematic methodology in analysing pedigrees, that  increases or decreases, depending on  the source of which and the methodology used to crunch figures etc, which is anyones choice, but is best based on factual evidence, from reputable sources

In saying that, i must say the methodology i use, has amounted to 1 very good winner and a very promising 2nd placegetter, (amounts for 2 sels 1w and 1p)  and numerous very correct foals and yearling on the ground (none are mine), this in a matter of 6 years, after spending a lifetime following useless other theories

The main thing to remember in following any theory or methodology is to be consistent in the application, failure to do so leads to it and your demise


Edited by Take2 - 27 Jan 2023 at 11:26am
change is simply a destination on a journey reached by taking the first step (i said that) lol

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Take2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jan 2023 at 11:46am
Originally posted by diomed diomed wrote:

In May 2015 on boards.ie /Sports/Horse Racing I wrote about the Dosage Index.

At that time I noted that 81 sires were split into two categories  from a total of about 180 sires.
In 1977 an article about dosage by Abram Hewitt appeared in the Blood-Horse magazine.
I may be very wrong but I think the split category chef-de-race sires arose not from a difference in the foals of these horses, but because of a difference of opinion between experts (Hewitt/Roman?) as to which category each sire should occupy.
Was the split categorisation a compromise, an unresolved difference of opinion?

Another fact I thought strange was Franco Varola decided to have 100 chef-de-race sires and stopped at that. That does not seem to me to be a good way to decide the quality of sires.

As I had gathered all the Group 1,2,3 race winners from GB/IRE/FR,GER/ITY and the USA Grade 1 winners from 1900 to 2015 I thought I would look at the numbers for the chef-de-race sires.
I have never seen published data of the racing distances of offspring of the newly appointed chef-de-race sires (or of the original chef-de-race sires).
We are expected to accept the categorisations.

Here are a few extracts from my thread on boards.ie
There are 4,598 sires that produced a Group race winner in Ireland, England, France, Italy, Germany, USA (Gr 1 only).
I counted the number of wins by the offspring of each sire at each distance from 5f to 20f (1f increments), and also did a calculation of the average winning distance.
For example Caerleon: 5f(1),6f(6),7f(13),8f(20),9f(8),10f(21),11f(4),12f(29),14f(5),15f(4),18f(1) – average 9.9f. There are few races at 9f and 11f, so I might adjust for that.

These seven sires have 100+ Group wins but are not chef-de-race sires:Caerleon; Danehill Dancer; Danehill; Dansili; Galileo; Pivotal; Storm Cat.
There are 48 non-chef-de-race sires with 50+ Group wins. Alleged has 93 wins (awd 11.3f), and Green Desert 92 wins (awd 7.1f).
Then you have the problem of good sires like Troy (7 offspring group wins) who had very short sire careers.

I am also going to review the Dosage Index chef-de-race classifications against my average winning distance calculations as I am not happy that almost half chef-de-race classifications were decided because two pedigree experts could not agree.

Danzig with 167 wins and an awd of 7.7f has an IC (intermediate/classic) designation, but so has Riverman with 120 wins and an awd of 9.1f.
Nureyev with 164 wins and an awd of 8.1f is a C (classic) designation, but Pharis with 94 offspring Group wins and an awd of 9.9 is a B (brilliant) classification
Pharis is categorised as a sire of speedier stock than Nureyev although his group winners were at 1.8f longer distance.
Pharis awd 9.9 (a brilliant sire) has 22 12f wins from 94 wins and 11 wins greater than 12f.
Nureyev awd 8.1f (a classic sire) has 12 12f wins from 164 wins with no wins greater than 12f.






I could list the Group race AWD (Group races) of all the chef-de-race sires but perhaps the originators or followers of the Dosage Index would supply the detailed data and let people judge.


"These seven sires have 100+ Group wins but are not chef-de-race sires:Caerleon; Danehill Dancer; Danehill; Dansili; Galileo; Pivotal; Storm Cat."


The omission of any or all of these sires shows the folly of blindly following someone elses opinion on anything, especially one as subjective as CDR

ALL the sires listed above are on my  list and have been for years

I jumped the gun years ago and included Danehill and many others by recognising early the traits they were consistently displaying aligned with the professed criteria of dosage, or near enough to

In My opinion one should keep a step ahead of the pack, especially in areas like this, the worst thing to happen is that you may be wrong, but so what, being wrong is  a big club to be a member of 

Moving on and recognising change and acting is the key


change is simply a destination on a journey reached by taking the first step (i said that) lol

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Take2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jan 2023 at 11:48am
Originally posted by diomed diomed wrote:

In May 2015 on boards.ie /Sports/Horse Racing I wrote about the Dosage Index.

At that time I noted that 81 sires were split into two categories  from a total of about 180 sires.
In 1977 an article about dosage by Abram Hewitt appeared in the Blood-Horse magazine.
I may be very wrong but I think the split category chef-de-race sires arose not from a difference in the foals of these horses, but because of a difference of opinion between experts (Hewitt/Roman?) as to which category each sire should occupy.
Was the split categorisation a compromise, an unresolved difference of opinion?

Another fact I thought strange was Franco Varola decided to have 100 chef-de-race sires and stopped at that. That does not seem to me to be a good way to decide the quality of sires.

As I had gathered all the Group 1,2,3 race winners from GB/IRE/FR,GER/ITY and the USA Grade 1 winners from 1900 to 2015 I thought I would look at the numbers for the chef-de-race sires.
I have never seen published data of the racing distances of offspring of the newly appointed chef-de-race sires (or of the original chef-de-race sires).
We are expected to accept the categorisations.

Here are a few extracts from my thread on boards.ie
There are 4,598 sires that produced a Group race winner in Ireland, England, France, Italy, Germany, USA (Gr 1 only).
I counted the number of wins by the offspring of each sire at each distance from 5f to 20f (1f increments), and also did a calculation of the average winning distance.
For example Caerleon: 5f(1),6f(6),7f(13),8f(20),9f(8),10f(21),11f(4),12f(29),14f(5),15f(4),18f(1) – average 9.9f. There are few races at 9f and 11f, so I might adjust for that.

These seven sires have 100+ Group wins but are not chef-de-race sires:Caerleon; Danehill Dancer; Danehill; Dansili; Galileo; Pivotal; Storm Cat.
There are 48 non-chef-de-race sires with 50+ Group wins. Alleged has 93 wins (awd 11.3f), and Green Desert 92 wins (awd 7.1f).
Then you have the problem of good sires like Troy (7 offspring group wins) who had very short sire careers.

I am also going to review the Dosage Index chef-de-race classifications against my average winning distance calculations as I am not happy that almost half chef-de-race classifications were decided because two pedigree experts could not agree.

Danzig with 167 wins and an awd of 7.7f has an IC (intermediate/classic) designation, but so has Riverman with 120 wins and an awd of 9.1f.
Nureyev with 164 wins and an awd of 8.1f is a C (classic) designation, but Pharis with 94 offspring Group wins and an awd of 9.9 is a B (brilliant) classification
Pharis is categorised as a sire of speedier stock than Nureyev although his group winners were at 1.8f longer distance.
Pharis awd 9.9 (a brilliant sire) has 22 12f wins from 94 wins and 11 wins greater than 12f.
Nureyev awd 8.1f (a classic sire) has 12 12f wins from 164 wins with no wins greater than 12f.


I could list the Group race AWD (Group races) of all the chef-de-race sires but perhaps the originators or followers of the Dosage Index would supply the detailed data and let people judge.
change is simply a destination on a journey reached by taking the first step (i said that) lol

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote diomed Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Feb 2023 at 4:32am
I feel I must post this from The Tesio Myth by Franco Varola
"Incidentally, the joint presence of two horses bred on the lines of Bistolfi and Sylvanire in a race like Prix d'Ispahan helps to clarify the notion that the functional classification of a horse as Professional does not mean that he is merely capable of running over a distance, but rather describes his professionalism in tackling the various metiers which are requested of him." (page 180)

metier - I looked it up.  It means profession or occupation.
Finally I understand Dosage.  You have to know the attitude of the horse in "the various metiers which are requested of him". 

Progold post above
"Your focus on AWD is nothing to do with dosage though. It is probably a bit obtuse to criticise on the basis that dosage is not what you think it should be. "
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Progold Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Feb 2023 at 9:38pm
I fear that there may be some misleading statements being made here. For example, metier has more than one meaning and if you look at this definition;
  • an outstanding or advantageous characteristic: ie "subtlety is not his métier" then perhaps it places a different meaning on Varola's words. In fact, characteristics are a central theme to his work whereas he never once mentions occupation. The background of Dosage is in the theories of Lt Vuillier who was in the employ of the Aga Khan for many years. While I welcome any real discussion on dosage, or indeed any breeding theory, I do not believe that this is an endeavour towards genuine discussion. I will however make a couple of observations. Firstly, in view of splitting classifications, we have seen a change in thoroughbred racing. We no longer see many three mile races and tend to think that a horse that runs 2000m is a staying type in the modern era. With the compression of distance, we have seen the classifications become a little less cut and dried. Secondly, in the case of AWD, it is a distraction from understanding dosage. For example, if a stallion has an AWD of a mile for example, surely it matters if his sire had an AWD of 1200m or 2000m. In one case they are imparting more speed than their sire, and in the other more stamina. If we cannot differentiate this, then what is to be gained?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Take2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Feb 2023 at 1:08pm
"The background of Dosage is in the theories of Lt Vuillier who was in the employ of the Aga Khan for many years. " (from post above)

fact of the matter is that Vuillier and Aga Khan iii originated dosage, and maintained it to the extent that the AK iv has bred raced or owned, ( or done all 3) over 150 group one winners, by maintaining and developing dosage in its original format and theory, developed by his grandfather and JJ Vuillier, something that is a league of it's own whether you believe in dosage or not


Dosage in its original form, was developed by JJ Vuillier France over  a century ago,  in " LES CROISEMENTS RATIONNELS DANS LA RACE PURE " it attained  Aga Khan iii's interest and backing, it was later modified by the Italian Dr. Franco Varola in the 1960s, Varola adapted dosage to fit with his theories, and Roman refined it, both (Varola's and Roman"s) served it's purpose

The Aga Khan iv actually retained Mdme Germaine Vuillier as his principal Pedigree advisor till her death, many years after Her Husband JJ Vuillier, (very generous appreciation for theories that once were derided by others at the time) in fact in the video, about the Aga Khan, you will see Her on a few occasions discussing bloodlines and inspecting Horses

Also in the video, Princess Zahra Aga Khan, says that whilst they still rely on dosage to some degree, it's not in the context that it once was

As tools to use in analysis of pedigrees all serve their purpose, but like everything, is not the be all and end all


Edited by Take2 - 03 Feb 2023 at 1:09pm
change is simply a destination on a journey reached by taking the first step (i said that) lol

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