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2020 Melbourne Cup

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Pardon_My_Dust View Drop Down
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    Posted: 03 Nov 2021 at 1:53pm
Originally posted by Pardon_My_Dust Pardon_My_Dust wrote:

Originally posted by Jamal Jamal wrote:

I like it how Djebel has got the s...s because his precious VE didn't run well.

Are you kidding? She ran out of her skin. Still can't believe she finished sixth was in the last five the whole way, circled the field and was literally the only horse making ground other than Prince Of Arran which had a cosy run on the fence and cut the corner. Full credit to the internationals but for Jamal I think it's a case of ignorance is bliss!

Still the case I do believe. LOL
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Afros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Nov 2021 at 10:20pm
2020 Cup was on a Good 3, Twilight Payment won in 3:17.34 under 55.5kg,

2021 Cup was on a Good 4, Verry Elleegant won in 3:17.43 under 57kg.

So she won in a time only 0.09 seconds slower despite the tracking being rated one rating softer and carrying 3.5kg more than last years winner did in that race compared to WFA.

I look forward to Jamal's reasoning why this shows VE isn't very good
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote kavg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Nov 2021 at 10:13pm
Originally posted by Jamal Jamal wrote:

Originally posted by Second Chance Second Chance wrote:

Originally posted by Jamal Jamal wrote:

Thats Aust racing for you in the past 8 or yrs. Locals don't want to chase...they have no heart. No guts....

Absolute cr*p.

Its not actually. Add pressure and they fold. They want sit and sprint contests. 

This aged very well too, considering the time and pressure of today!
Prejudice is an emotional attachment to ignorance.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (3) Thanks(3)   Quote kavg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Nov 2021 at 10:11pm
Originally posted by Jamal Jamal wrote:

I like it how Djebel has got the s...s because his precious VE didn't run well.

Fact the facts....Europe go BANG BANNG BANG.....1 - 2 - 3...too good.

What a great race.....a true test of courage and a test if the lungs and heart...the Euros simply do not stop and run through walls. Excellent.

This aged very well!
 Considering the winner of 2020 was well beaten in 2021!
Prejudice is an emotional attachment to ignorance.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jamal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 May 2021 at 10:32am
Originally posted by djebel djebel wrote:

Just goes to show Australia can produce good horses.



By the sire Australia out of the dam Sweepstake
Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Grey Affair Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 May 2021 at 3:50am
LOL  Good one, Djebel!

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 May 2021 at 2:45am
Just goes to show Australia can produce good horses.
reductio ad absurdum
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jamal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 May 2021 at 1:49am
Originally posted by Jamal Jamal wrote:

Twilight Payment resuming tonight in the Group 3 Moorsbridge Stakes (race 3)

Twilight Payment - Ran on ok. Looked far too dour....2000m is too short obviously. Was beaten comfortably.
Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jamal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 May 2021 at 10:07pm
Twilight Payment resuming tonight in the Group 3 Moorsbridge Stakes (race 3)
Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pardon_My_Dust Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Nov 2020 at 10:16am
Alas, it's not rap and it's not a deliberate stutter! LOL
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote acacia alba Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Nov 2020 at 8:05pm
Missed that one, thankfully.  Cant handle rap at the best of times.  Were his pants hanging off his arze ???
animals before people.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pardon_My_Dust Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Nov 2020 at 6:42pm
Originally posted by acacia alba acacia alba wrote:

Voyager,s 10th point is so true.   It was painful to watch.  I managed 5 mins and then switched.  Who wants to see singers, and women in hats that we have never heard of ?  Painful .

Can't be as painful as Mark Guest performing the stutter rap on SKY.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shawy38 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Nov 2020 at 10:08pm
Thanks Sherlock
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jamal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Nov 2020 at 9:37pm
The Timeform ratings I posted were released AFTER the race (Melb Cup).
Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Nov 2020 at 9:22pm
Originally posted by max manewer max manewer wrote:

And why would horses not break down on a hard track at night ? Jamal, did you hear about the Irish space mission to the Sun, that made the trip at night, to avoid the heat ?

I had a quick look at channel 68 tonight and they are racing at Cranbourne.  Track is rated as 3 but track watchers think it's really a 2.Big smile
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Nov 2020 at 9:21pm
Originally posted by Tlazolteotl Tlazolteotl wrote:

If you wanted a 5 for the cup, on a hot day with a strong drying wind, how would you do it? Even if you watered it to 6 in the morning it's going to be a 3 by cup time.

Run the cup early, say race 3? Have a recess during the meeting and water it again? I don't know. You tell me.Confused
That's the point - you answered your own question.
HINT: They didn't water it at all when they could have ... and should have.
And bring the cup forward a race or two was an option, but a decision to be made much earlier than on the day.
Overseas sporting media news connections to be considered for a start.

Thanks for the civil response.
Appreciated.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Baghdad Bob Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Nov 2020 at 9:16pm
Max, over many years analysis of the on course bookies SP has proven to be the most accurate of all markets. As all would know, the final SP is always over round, so unless a punter bet early and got better odds  than that SP his chance of long term gain were minimal.

Many years ago, before the off course tote was introduced,
the SP was manipulated by smarties to create an artificial price, but those days have long gone as illegal SP bookies, who bore the brunt of that manipulation, have mostly gone to God.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Nov 2020 at 6:01pm
When were these ratings delivered, SC, well ahead of race ? I would be rather surprised if they were more accurate than the bookies market, at the time of being generated.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Nov 2020 at 5:54pm
Originally posted by Second Chance Second Chance wrote:

I know of a couple of blokes who made a very good living selling their ratings to trainers.  Whilst neither of them was ordinary on the punt they had no need to push the envelope in the betting ring.  And it appears TJ does a fair bit of freelancing his rating to others in the industry.  You know, the bloke who rated the Cup winner very highly on TBV.  Wink  

To take that a little further, these guys were advising leading trainers with heaps in work who simply didn't have the time to accurately assess the dangers in race after race after race.  So after paying for a service the trainers were not only able to give owners an appreciation of their horses' chances but also identify the major dangers, allowing often high profile owners the opportunity to "save" on other rivals.

Some might be surprised just how highly such rating opinions are appreciated by owners and trainers.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Nov 2020 at 5:28pm
One particular rating shows this advantage, if the runner is favourite, and they have it priced at less than $6, the return on turnover is over 2% better than backing all favourites. It has them under $6 about three-quarters of favourites, mightn't sound like much but it illustrates that it is not without merit. I have found it useful to apply in various ways.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Nov 2020 at 5:15pm
Originally posted by Second Chance Second Chance wrote:

I know of a couple of blokes who made a very good living selling their ratings to trainers.  Whilst neither of them was ordinary on the punt they had no need to push the envelope in the betting ring.

And it appears TJ does a fair bit of freelancing his rating to others in the industry.  You know, the bloke who rated the Cup winner very highly on TBV.  Wink
I missed TJ's Cup ratings
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote furious Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Nov 2020 at 5:07pm
And that is to do with weight for age not just penalty. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote furious Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Nov 2020 at 5:06pm
Because the Cups are handicaps and you'll find the higher weighted ones rated higher in their runs.  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Nov 2020 at 5:01pm
I know of a couple of blokes who made a very good living selling their ratings to trainers.  Whilst neither of them was ordinary on the punt they had no need to push the envelope in the betting ring.

And it appears TJ does a fair bit of freelancing his rating to others in the industry.  You know, the bloke who rated the Cup winner very highly on TBV.  Wink
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Nov 2020 at 4:37pm
I have found some useful, but not in the way mpst people would use them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Baghdad Bob Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Nov 2020 at 4:34pm
Max, then again, it might depend how much they cost.Most of the people I came  across who sold ratings or systems never made any money out of punting , they only kept afloat because some mug paid for that rating or system.
Even those that had a viable system or ratings were hopeless punters, they had no idea of money management with their punting.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Nov 2020 at 4:29pm
To bet the "overlays" from them, highly unlikely to succeed.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Nov 2020 at 4:28pm
They are not all useless by any means, BB, depending on how you apply them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Baghdad Bob Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Nov 2020 at 4:24pm
How anyone pays for any rating service is beyond me.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shawy38 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Nov 2020 at 4:21pm
Timeform is a load of crap.
How anyone pays money for that service is beyond me.

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