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2020 Melbourne Cup |
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Pardon_My_Dust
Champion Joined: 01 Dec 2009 Status: Offline Points: 9124 |
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Posted: 03 Nov 2021 at 1:53pm |
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Still the case I do believe.
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Afros
Champion Joined: 14 Jan 2009 Status: Online Points: 15302 |
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2020 Cup was on a Good 3, Twilight Payment won in 3:17.34 under 55.5kg,
2021 Cup was on a Good 4, Verry Elleegant won in 3:17.43 under 57kg. So she won in a time only 0.09 seconds slower despite the tracking being rated one rating softer and carrying 3.5kg more than last years winner did in that race compared to WFA. I look forward to Jamal's reasoning why this shows VE isn't very good
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kavg
Champion Joined: 08 Jun 2009 Status: Offline Points: 3993 |
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This aged very well too, considering the time and pressure of today!
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Prejudice is an emotional attachment to ignorance.
DiEM25 for the world. |
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kavg
Champion Joined: 08 Jun 2009 Status: Offline Points: 3993 |
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This aged very well! Considering the winner of 2020 was well beaten in 2021!
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Prejudice is an emotional attachment to ignorance.
DiEM25 for the world. |
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8659 |
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By the sire Australia out of the dam Sweepstake
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Grey Affair
Champion Joined: 24 Jun 2017 Location: Queensland Status: Online Points: 2976 |
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LOL Good one, Djebel! |
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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Just goes to show Australia can produce good horses.
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reductio ad absurdum
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8659 |
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Twilight Payment - Ran on ok. Looked far too dour....2000m is too short obviously. Was beaten comfortably.
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8659 |
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Twilight Payment resuming tonight in the Group 3 Moorsbridge Stakes (race 3)
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Pardon_My_Dust
Champion Joined: 01 Dec 2009 Status: Offline Points: 9124 |
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Alas, it's not rap and it's not a deliberate stutter!
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acacia alba
Champion Joined: 31 Oct 2010 Location: Hunter Valley Status: Offline Points: 41241 |
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Missed that one, thankfully. Cant handle rap at the best of times. Were his pants hanging off his arze ???
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animals before people.
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Pardon_My_Dust
Champion Joined: 01 Dec 2009 Status: Offline Points: 9124 |
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Can't be as painful as Mark Guest performing the stutter rap on SKY.
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Shawy38
Champion Joined: 13 Jun 2015 Status: Offline Points: 17253 |
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Thanks Sherlock
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8659 |
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The Timeform ratings I posted were released AFTER the race (Melb Cup).
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Tlazolteotl
Champion Joined: 02 Oct 2012 Location: Elephant Butte Status: Offline Points: 31290 |
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I had a quick look at channel 68 tonight and they are racing at Cranbourne. Track is rated as 3 but track watchers think it's really a 2.
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An honest politician is one who when he is bought will stay bought.
Simon Cameron |
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Dutch
Champion Joined: 18 Feb 2016 Location: Newcastle NSW Status: Offline Points: 721 |
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That's the point - you answered your own question. HINT: They didn't water it at all when they could have ... and should have. And bring the cup forward a race or two was an option, but a decision to be made much earlier than on the day. Overseas sporting media news connections to be considered for a start. Thanks for the civil response. Appreciated.
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Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison
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Baghdad Bob
Champion Joined: 10 Feb 2010 Location: Victoria Status: Offline Points: 13595 |
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Max, over many years analysis of the on course bookies SP has proven to be the most accurate of all markets. As all would know, the final SP is always over round, so unless a punter bet early and got better odds than that SP his chance of long term gain were minimal.
Many years ago, before the off course tote was introduced, the SP was manipulated by smarties to create an artificial price, but those days have long gone as illegal SP bookies, who bore the brunt of that manipulation, have mostly gone to God. |
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max manewer
Champion Joined: 31 Jan 2010 Status: Offline Points: 32947 |
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When were these ratings delivered, SC, well ahead of race ? I would be rather surprised if they were more accurate than the bookies market, at the time of being generated.
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Second Chance
Champion Joined: 02 Dec 2007 Status: Online Points: 45319 |
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To take that a little further, these guys were advising leading trainers with heaps in work who simply didn't have the time to accurately assess the dangers in race after race after race. So after paying for a service the trainers were not only able to give owners an appreciation of their horses' chances but also identify the major dangers, allowing often high profile owners the opportunity to "save" on other rivals. Some might be surprised just how highly such rating opinions are appreciated by owners and trainers. |
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max manewer
Champion Joined: 31 Jan 2010 Status: Offline Points: 32947 |
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One particular rating shows this advantage, if the runner is favourite, and they have it priced at less than $6, the return on turnover is over 2% better than backing all favourites. It has them under $6 about three-quarters of favourites, mightn't sound like much but it illustrates that it is not without merit. I have found it useful to apply in various ways.
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max manewer
Champion Joined: 31 Jan 2010 Status: Offline Points: 32947 |
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I missed TJ's Cup ratings
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furious
Champion Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Status: Offline Points: 25066 |
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And that is to do with weight for age not just penalty.
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furious
Champion Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Status: Offline Points: 25066 |
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Because the Cups are handicaps and you'll find the higher weighted ones rated higher in their runs.
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Second Chance
Champion Joined: 02 Dec 2007 Status: Online Points: 45319 |
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I know of a couple of blokes who made a very good living selling their ratings to trainers. Whilst neither of them was ordinary on the punt they had no need to push the envelope in the betting ring.
And it appears TJ does a fair bit of freelancing his rating to others in the industry. You know, the bloke who rated the Cup winner very highly on TBV.
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max manewer
Champion Joined: 31 Jan 2010 Status: Offline Points: 32947 |
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I have found some useful, but not in the way mpst people would use them.
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Baghdad Bob
Champion Joined: 10 Feb 2010 Location: Victoria Status: Offline Points: 13595 |
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Max, then again, it might depend how much they cost.Most of the people I came across who sold ratings or systems never made any money out of punting , they only kept afloat because some mug paid for that rating or system.
Even those that had a viable system or ratings were hopeless punters, they had no idea of money management with their punting.
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max manewer
Champion Joined: 31 Jan 2010 Status: Offline Points: 32947 |
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To bet the "overlays" from them, highly unlikely to succeed.
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max manewer
Champion Joined: 31 Jan 2010 Status: Offline Points: 32947 |
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They are not all useless by any means, BB, depending on how you apply them.
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Baghdad Bob
Champion Joined: 10 Feb 2010 Location: Victoria Status: Offline Points: 13595 |
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How anyone pays for any rating service is beyond me.
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Shawy38
Champion Joined: 13 Jun 2015 Status: Offline Points: 17253 |
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Timeform is a load of crap.
How anyone pays money for that service is beyond me. |
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