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Carif |
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Rhino
Champion Joined: 21 Nov 2013 Status: Offline Points: 1818 |
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Thought it was home. Might have gone a tad early.
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53955 |
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Gelding him has not helped.
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reductio ad absurdum
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Lord Hybrow
Champion Joined: 05 Jul 2015 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 6621 |
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Good honest run yesterday & he’ll be in the mix for the Brisbane Cup.
But wouldn’t want to back him to beat Rondinella. Her run for 4th was a cracker Brisbane Cup trial.
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Afros
Champion Joined: 14 Jan 2009 Status: Offline Points: 15162 |
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D-day for him this week. The gelding operation was done with the long term goal of the 2021 Melbourne Cup. If he can't win the 2021 Brisbane Cup they may as well set their sights lower.
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8651 |
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Has 59kg in the Brisbane Cup. Seems like a big ask despite there only being 6 other runners in the race.
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8651 |
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Ran 2nd in Brisbane Cup. May have to aim lower in the spring.
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Lord Hybrow
Champion Joined: 05 Jul 2015 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 6621 |
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Stuck on ok for a distant 2nd today.
Clearly big spring Cups are going to be a bit beyond the his talent level, aside from another Sandown Cup (or whatever they’ll decide to call it?) He’s racing honestly this campaign, so might as well press on to the Caloundra Cup &/or Grafton Cup this prep.
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8651 |
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Did Carif deserve do be top weight with 59kg? His only win at stakes level is the Listed Sandown Cup (3200m).
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Afros
Champion Joined: 14 Jan 2009 Status: Offline Points: 15162 |
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Technically he was second top weight (on ratings) allowing for Rondenella having her 2KG allowance.
Given the record of all of the others, he deserved his allocated weight. If he were any hope yesterday he should have put paid to that field, maybe if he had another go Tommy Berry would have tried to lead with him rather than take the sit, perhaps he was worried about the big weight and didn't want to over-exert him but all the same he still should have won if the Snowdens wraps on him were true. If he were mine he'd be in a different yard come the spring and picking off some of the second and third tier staying races around the carnivals.
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Afros
Champion Joined: 14 Jan 2009 Status: Offline Points: 15162 |
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He resumes in the Cameron Handicap at Newcastle this Friday.
Not seen anything of the plans with him but it would be unlikely he would make the Bart Cummings field, maybe they'll have another go at a last chance saloon into the Melbourne Cup via the Hotham Hcp.
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VOYAGER
Champion Joined: 04 Aug 2007 Location: Australia Status: Online Points: 18681 |
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If the stable knew how to set a stayer for a prep, then he would be kicking off at Randwick in the Kingston Town the next day.
I do not usually do this but if I know an owner has stayer with this stable I would actively and strongly urge them to seek another stable. I would rather have my stayer with the factories of Gai, Waller and Maher any day than go to this stable.
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Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Lord Hybrow
Champion Joined: 05 Jul 2015 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 6621 |
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Currently 34th in the Melb Cup order of entry.
But above him are a few confirmed non starters in Sonnyboyliston & Master of Reality. There are a few 4yo mares that I tend to think would be doubtful to line up, such as Duais & Hungry Heart. Then there’s always withdrawals due to injury or lack of form as the Spring unfolds. Carif may get tantalisingly close to getting a Cup start, even without winning a lead up race.
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Shawy38
Champion Joined: 13 Jun 2015 Status: Offline Points: 17220 |
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Geelong Cup would be a good race for him to target.
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Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8651 |
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Big question is, can Carif win a Melbourne Cup or at the very least run well (top 5 or 6)??
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Gay3
Moderator Group Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Location: Miners Rest Status: Offline Points: 51751 |
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Not even if he starts now
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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
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Afros
Champion Joined: 14 Jan 2009 Status: Offline Points: 15162 |
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No he can't win, although if he managed to run 12th or better he'll earn his connections $160k, which is more than he'll get if he defends his Sandown Cup title. If he was capable of running top 6 in a Melbourne Cup, even in a likely down year on quality, he should have won the Brisbane Cup easily.
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speedingaway
Champion Joined: 03 Jan 2009 Location: Carlton Status: Offline Points: 632 |
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I think Carif is one of those horses capable of running a big race at monster odds. Definitely not winning, but he stays well and will appreciate the drop in weight. I could see him running sixth to twelfth.
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53955 |
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If you can see him running 6th surely he has flukers hope of winning.
If a Prince Of Panzanze or a Vow And Declare can win a Cup any horse in the field can win the race.
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reductio ad absurdum
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speedingaway
Champion Joined: 03 Jan 2009 Location: Carlton Status: Offline Points: 632 |
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I tend to think Carif is a herd animal, content to finish in the pack. I love him, he looks like his Dad, but I don't trust him completely sticking his head out for a win.
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53955 |
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Yep yep yep yep yep.
I suspected/hoped gelding him might fix that.
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reductio ad absurdum
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8651 |
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Do you think Carif has similar ability to Prince Of Penzance and Vow And Declare?
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Magnolian Khan
Champion Joined: 23 Dec 2015 Location: SA Status: Offline Points: 8437 |
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Absolutely not.
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VOYAGER
Champion Joined: 04 Aug 2007 Location: Australia Status: Online Points: 18681 |
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Okay wait a minute I have me memory wheels turning.
Didn't I see Carif win at Sandown over 3200m on a good surface when he made Realm Of Flowers look like she was in reverse? And didn't he give her a sizeable amount of weight? I mean she is now @$15.00 with some operators. So with his strong formline at Flemington are we sure he is not a top six hope?
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Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Lord Hybrow
Champion Joined: 05 Jul 2015 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 6621 |
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You must have imagined that voyager. I remember Realm of Flowers closing late & almost mowing Carif down in the shadows of the post. And I think she’s got more improvement from her 4yo to 5yo season that Carif has as a 6yo.
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VOYAGER
Champion Joined: 04 Aug 2007 Location: Australia Status: Online Points: 18681 |
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Yes she did rattle home Lord, but I am certain he put two lengths or more on her at the 350m and she still could not pick him up.
His good run in Brisbane was the same he kicked off the turn, but he was run down late. His good run last year in the Chairmans where he beat The Chosen One home, he did the same he kicked off the turn and put a few lengths on the field, and then was run down, by one horse (Raheen House) again late. Again if he was triple figures I would have a coin each way, but I have seen his level of horse finish top eight. Sir Charles Road, Big Duke, Libran, Pentathlon, Araldo, Kelinni, Excess Knowledge and The Offer. As has been said in this thread before he is a horse who seems to be able to get to the front, but he waits for his compatriots to catch up, he does not have that Verry Elleegant killer instinct. Personally I think with the lack of overseas runners (and quality) this year, the chance of a good 4 surface, and the fact that he loves Flemington and 3200m, I can see why someone would, even with the trainer he has taking some of the $201.00 each way on offer! |
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Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Afros
Champion Joined: 14 Jan 2009 Status: Offline Points: 15162 |
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I think he's better than a 100-1 pop at this stage, his record at 3200m is the Sandown Cup win and Brisbane Cup 2nd, the Brisbane Cup was a small field and a crawl so for mine the form is questionable, in the Sandown Cup he defeated Realm of Flowers who is well in the market for the Melbourne Cup so either the mare is unders or he is overs for mine.
Like I said earlier I don't think he can win a Melbourne Cup but all the same I like the sire and the horse so chances are I'll be taking a little bite at the current odds although out of hope more then expectation.
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8651 |
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Ran on not too bad to finish 4th in the Group 3 at Newcastle today at 1500m
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Lord Hybrow
Champion Joined: 05 Jul 2015 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 6621 |
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Agreed, very good resumption by this fellow.
Astutely placed, there’ll be a win somewhere for him this campaign.
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Afros
Champion Joined: 14 Jan 2009 Status: Offline Points: 15162 |
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He's now up to 30th in the order of entry for the Melbourne Cup and a very real possibility of gaining a start with natural attrition over the next month.
36th for the Caulfield Cup so a "win and in" race is likely the only way he gets a start there.
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8651 |
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Back down to 32nd in order of entry for the Melbourne Cup, so its touch and go if he makes the field.
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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