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Surprise Baby

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VOYAGER View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Sep 2020 at 9:07pm
I understand what you are saying Glencoe, and I am not disagreeing with you but Mahamedeis went around him and I think Williams instead of riding for luck, which he would not have got, thought he was on a stayer, which the trainer told him was fit enough, so he rode for the safe percentage ride.

I understand someone saying it was the ride which cost him the win, but for me Williams rode him in his mind to give him his best chance.  
Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Sep 2020 at 9:21pm
Originally posted by Glencoe Glencoe wrote:

Williams asked him to be the best horse in the race. cost him at least 3 lengths. The wnr was fortunate

Not true imo.  Winner last approaching the turn, but others going too early outside, gaps appearing, waited and got the run.  Top class ride.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Glencoe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Sep 2020 at 4:17pm
That is what I meant. Waiting was fortunate
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Slammington Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Sep 2020 at 12:22am
Is he guaranteed a start in MC? He was lightly weighted last year and wouldn’t have made the field without winning the Bart Cummings. That is the only race he won since the weights last year and I doubt the G3 Bart win or the Feehan placing gets him much more weight. 

Is he a risk of missing a start unless he wins the Bart Cummings again? I remember wondering this when they decided not to run him in autumn thereby missing the chance to win a decent race and get his weight up. No one seems to be talking about this in the press so maybe it is a given that he will get a run. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Sep 2020 at 12:30am
He has a rating of 108 so that should see him get in easy enough. 

104 usually see locals scrape in. 
reductio ad absurdum
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jamal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Sep 2020 at 12:54am
Originally posted by djebel djebel wrote:

He has a rating of 108 so that should see him get in easy enough. 

104 usually see locals scrape in. 

Probably will get around 53kg? Thoughts.
Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cotto1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Sep 2020 at 7:59am
Hi guys: 
Do you reckon that was there plan.to get him in with the very least weight as possible but he has hardly had any hit outs. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shawy38 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Sep 2020 at 8:40am
That was the plan with running on Sat and then straight to the Cox Plate...no weight penalty for the big one. 

His rating is high enough that he should comfortably make the field
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Sep 2020 at 11:54am
Originally posted by Jamal Jamal wrote:

Originally posted by djebel djebel wrote:

He has a rating of 108 so that should see him get in easy enough. 

104 usually see locals scrape in. 

Probably will get around 53kg? Thoughts.

Really, he should not get much less than Vow And Declare.
reductio ad absurdum
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jamal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Sep 2020 at 11:35pm
Originally posted by Jamal Jamal wrote:

Originally posted by djebel djebel wrote:

He has a rating of 108 so that should see him get in easy enough. 

104 usually see locals scrape in. 

Probably will get around 53kg? Thoughts.

So he got 54.5kg. I was wrong by 1.5kg
Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bonfield Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Sep 2020 at 9:26pm
With same run as Humidor he wins the Feehan and is in to the Cox Plate. Nothing wrong with the ride. Yes he was forced quite wide but that's pretty normal for horses coming from back at that goat track Moonee Valley. Any other course and Surprise Baby wins.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Sep 2020 at 10:52pm
Not sure about that Humidor had that race won a long way out.
reductio ad absurdum
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shrunk in the Wash Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Sep 2020 at 11:03pm
SB was ridden to win whilst the old boy was ridden for luck
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Lastycoon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Sep 2020 at 6:53pm
Can he still go to the Cox Plate?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Sep 2020 at 7:02pm
Would've thought his rating of 108 would get him into a Cox Plate, however others are better placed to comment than me.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pnclick Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Sep 2020 at 9:46pm
He is more than qualified for the Cox Plate. In comparison to say Trap For Fools, who was omitted from the last Winx Cox Plate,  Surprise Baby has significantly better form and given this is a weaker Cox Plate he should have no issue getting a run.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Ted Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Sep 2020 at 12:33pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bonfield Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Sep 2020 at 1:17am
Why is Surprise Baby favourite for the Melbourne Cup? Surely Russian Camelot should be.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cotto1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Sep 2020 at 9:33am
Hi there mate: 
That is a good question.is it because of surprise baby’s m cup run last year and in some small way.no one knows how Russian Camelot will go sort of thing in this yrs cup?. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pardon_My_Dust Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Sep 2020 at 2:32pm
Originally posted by Bonfield Bonfield wrote:

Why is Surprise Baby favourite for the Melbourne Cup? Surely Russian Camelot should be.

Did you see it's run last year? Should have won. Came from near last and circled the field off a farcical speed and ran fifth. Horses just don't so that unless they are something very special. The field was choc full of international horses. Nothing new this year.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pardon_My_Dust Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Sep 2020 at 2:37pm
Originally posted by djebel djebel wrote:

Not sure about that Humidor had that race won a long way out.

You think Djebel? It was the ride that won it the race, had he gone around the field I'm not sure he would've won.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bonfield Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Sep 2020 at 5:10pm
Originally posted by Pardon_My_Dust Pardon_My_Dust wrote:

Originally posted by Bonfield Bonfield wrote:

Why is Surprise Baby favourite for the Melbourne Cup? Surely Russian Camelot should be.

Did you see it's run last year? Should have won. Came from near last and circled the field off a farcical speed and ran fifth. Horses just don't so that unless they are something very special. The field was choc full of international horses. Nothing new this year.

Last year's race was weak. It was a bunched finish. Not saying the horse can't win this year, but Russian Camelot is a superior racehorse, probably by a long way.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mr Grieves Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Sep 2020 at 2:06am
Not weak. Just a slow pace killed the chances of the strong stayers in the race.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pardon_My_Dust Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Sep 2020 at 12:23pm
Originally posted by Bonfield Bonfield wrote:

Originally posted by Pardon_My_Dust Pardon_My_Dust wrote:

Originally posted by Bonfield Bonfield wrote:

Why is Surprise Baby favourite for the Melbourne Cup? Surely Russian Camelot should be.

Did you see it's run last year? Should have won. Came from near last and circled the field off a farcical speed and ran fifth. Horses just don't so that unless they are something very special. The field was choc full of international horses. Nothing new this year.

Last year's race was weak. It was a bunched finish. Not saying the horse can't win this year, but Russian Camelot is a superior racehorse, probably by a long way.

It certainly looks that way now. That was seriously impressive.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Lord Hybrow Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Oct 2020 at 11:25am
9th of 15 on paper looks disappointing but he was stretching out nicely late.

Apparently now going straight into the Melb Cup next start.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Oct 2020 at 11:31am
Pretty sure his trainer said in an interview on RSN that he was too fit for yesterdays race.

I guess he was borderline to make the Cox Plate and they need to get him into the race but you'd have to think he is far too dour for that ?
reductio ad absurdum
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shrunk in the Wash Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Oct 2020 at 11:44am
Very nice run. One of many in that race 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pardon_My_Dust Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Oct 2020 at 1:04pm
Williams is a halfwit. Only he would ease the horse out at the start to get off the fence but then not get off the fence. So he deliberately starts slow, has plenty of room to get off but amazingly stays on. The horse is good enough to ease out to last and circle the field and be in the finish. But no, Craig has to try and make himself look good by taking shortcuts that he hopes will lead to a clear run. 

Just a forkwit of a jock.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Oct 2020 at 2:43pm
Originally posted by Lord Hybrow Lord Hybrow wrote:

9th of 15 on paper looks disappointing but he was stretching out nicely late.

Apparently now going straight into the Melb Cup next start.


2.8 lens covered the 1st 12 home
Shocked Yes, djebel, far too dour now.
Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote mikey Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Nov 2020 at 9:55am
Did not give a yelp in The Melbourne Cup.

The 2 starts in 12 months just did not work, he was a different horse than the one from the 2019 edition.
Was he just not fit enough or was he just "switched off" after being off the scene for so long?

The European horses time and time again race well in The Melbourne Cup off light campaigns but it doesn't seem to work for The Australian Horses. Why?
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