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Surprise Baby |
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VOYAGER
Champion Joined: 04 Aug 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 18699 |
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I understand what you are saying Glencoe, and I am not disagreeing with you but Mahamedeis went around him and I think Williams instead of riding for luck, which he would not have got, thought he was on a stayer, which the trainer told him was fit enough, so he rode for the safe percentage ride.
I understand someone saying it was the ride which cost him the win, but for me Williams rode him in his mind to give him his best chance.
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Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Second Chance
Champion Joined: 02 Dec 2007 Status: Online Points: 45321 |
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Not true imo. Winner last approaching the turn, but others going too early outside, gaps appearing, waited and got the run. Top class ride.
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Glencoe
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2011 Location: Mt. Gambier S.A Status: Offline Points: 1942 |
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That is what I meant. Waiting was fortunate
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Slammington
Champion Joined: 24 May 2007 Status: Offline Points: 328 |
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Is he guaranteed a start in MC? He was lightly weighted last year and wouldn’t have made the field without winning the Bart Cummings. That is the only race he won since the weights last year and I doubt the G3 Bart win or the Feehan placing gets him much more weight.
Is he a risk of missing a start unless he wins the Bart Cummings again? I remember wondering this when they decided not to run him in autumn thereby missing the chance to win a decent race and get his weight up. No one seems to be talking about this in the press so maybe it is a given that he will get a run.
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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He has a rating of 108 so that should see him get in easy enough.
104 usually see locals scrape in.
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reductio ad absurdum
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8659 |
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Probably will get around 53kg? Thoughts.
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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cotto1
Yearling Joined: 24 Jul 2016 Status: Offline Points: 119 |
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Hi guys:
Do you reckon that was there plan.to get him in with the very least weight as possible but he has hardly had any hit outs.
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Shawy38
Champion Joined: 13 Jun 2015 Status: Offline Points: 17265 |
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That was the plan with running on Sat and then straight to the Cox Plate...no weight penalty for the big one.
His rating is high enough that he should comfortably make the field
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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Really, he should not get much less than Vow And Declare.
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reductio ad absurdum
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8659 |
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So he got 54.5kg. I was wrong by 1.5kg
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Bonfield
Champion Joined: 07 Nov 2013 Status: Offline Points: 10291 |
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With same run as Humidor he wins the Feehan and is in to the Cox Plate. Nothing wrong with the ride. Yes he was forced quite wide but that's pretty normal for horses coming from back at that goat track Moonee Valley. Any other course and Surprise Baby wins.
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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Not sure about that Humidor had that race won a long way out.
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reductio ad absurdum
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Shrunk in the Wash
Champion Joined: 25 Mar 2016 Status: Offline Points: 9890 |
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SB was ridden to win whilst the old boy was ridden for luck
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Lastycoon
Champion Joined: 24 Feb 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 497 |
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Can he still go to the Cox Plate?
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Second Chance
Champion Joined: 02 Dec 2007 Status: Online Points: 45321 |
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Would've thought his rating of 108 would get him into a Cox Plate, however others are better placed to comment than me.
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pnclick
Champion Joined: 13 Mar 2009 Status: Offline Points: 1013 |
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He is more than qualified for the Cox Plate. In comparison to say Trap For Fools, who was omitted from the last Winx Cox Plate, Surprise Baby has significantly better form and given this is a weaker Cox Plate he should have no issue getting a run.
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Ted
Champion Joined: 23 Oct 2009 Status: Offline Points: 2857 |
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Running in the Turnbull
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Bonfield
Champion Joined: 07 Nov 2013 Status: Offline Points: 10291 |
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Why is Surprise Baby favourite for the Melbourne Cup? Surely Russian Camelot should be.
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cotto1
Yearling Joined: 24 Jul 2016 Status: Offline Points: 119 |
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Hi there mate:
That is a good question.is it because of surprise baby’s m cup run last year and in some small way.no one knows how Russian Camelot will go sort of thing in this yrs cup?. |
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Pardon_My_Dust
Champion Joined: 01 Dec 2009 Status: Offline Points: 9124 |
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Did you see it's run last year? Should have won. Came from near last and circled the field off a farcical speed and ran fifth. Horses just don't so that unless they are something very special. The field was choc full of international horses. Nothing new this year.
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Pardon_My_Dust
Champion Joined: 01 Dec 2009 Status: Offline Points: 9124 |
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You think Djebel? It was the ride that won it the race, had he gone around the field I'm not sure he would've won.
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Bonfield
Champion Joined: 07 Nov 2013 Status: Offline Points: 10291 |
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Last year's race was weak. It was a bunched finish. Not saying the horse can't win this year, but Russian Camelot is a superior racehorse, probably by a long way.
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Mr Grieves
Champion Joined: 28 Jan 2014 Location: Canberra Status: Offline Points: 930 |
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Not weak. Just a slow pace killed the chances of the strong stayers in the race.
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Pardon_My_Dust
Champion Joined: 01 Dec 2009 Status: Offline Points: 9124 |
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It certainly looks that way now. That was seriously impressive.
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Lord Hybrow
Champion Joined: 05 Jul 2015 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 6643 |
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9th of 15 on paper looks disappointing but he was stretching out nicely late.
Apparently now going straight into the Melb Cup next start.
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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Pretty sure his trainer said in an interview on RSN that he was too fit for yesterdays race.
I guess he was borderline to make the Cox Plate and they need to get him into the race but you'd have to think he is far too dour for that ?
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reductio ad absurdum
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Shrunk in the Wash
Champion Joined: 25 Mar 2016 Status: Offline Points: 9890 |
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Very nice run. One of many in that race
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Pardon_My_Dust
Champion Joined: 01 Dec 2009 Status: Offline Points: 9124 |
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Williams is a halfwit. Only he would ease the horse out at the start to get off the fence but then not get off the fence. So he deliberately starts slow, has plenty of room to get off but amazingly stays on. The horse is good enough to ease out to last and circle the field and be in the finish. But no, Craig has to try and make himself look good by taking shortcuts that he hopes will lead to a clear run.
Just a forkwit of a jock.
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Gay3
Moderator Group Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Location: Miners Rest Status: Offline Points: 51824 |
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2.8 lens covered the 1st 12 home Yes, djebel, far too dour now. |
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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
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mikey
Champion Joined: 01 Nov 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 511 |
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Did not give a yelp in The Melbourne Cup.
The 2 starts in 12 months just did not work, he was a different horse than the one from the 2019 edition. Was he just not fit enough or was he just "switched off" after being off the scene for so long? The European horses time and time again race well in The Melbourne Cup off light campaigns but it doesn't seem to work for The Australian Horses. Why?
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