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2019 Melbourne Cup |
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Kingyy
Champion Joined: 30 Sep 2014 Location: Warrnambool Status: Offline Points: 862 |
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Still hurting from yesterday. I had IL PARADISO going into everything and bloody Vittori spoils the party. Was running straight past them till Frankie's mount lays in all over the top of us. Horse made up a stack of ground and was very strong through the line. This horse is going to be something special IMO. Probably one of the best young stayers going round at the moment. For only a handful of starts, he's going to be tough to beat in anything he contests! I thought PRICE of ARRAN was super in defeat as well. I remember watching a few shows lately where people have had big multi's into PoA to either win or run a place in the Melbourne Cup. I had a saver on him too which hurt the bank even more but super prep, trainer clearly knows the horse well. Decent cup this year.
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Carioca
Champion Joined: 13 Nov 2015 Status: Offline Points: 21698 |
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And I might add Kingy, Prince of Arran looked a picture of health in the yard , not that helps mate, so close.
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stayer
Champion Joined: 10 Aug 2010 Status: Offline Points: 21888 |
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Frankie forgot to mention the change in hands of his whip. Why do that if a tired horse is going to lay in? It cost Master of R or Il Paradiso the win. Kind of fair enough though the Euro jockeys' comments because they ride more distance races and are more used to that kind of stuff. After watching the replay a few times I think a few horses could have won on the day with different scenarios. Cross Counter's effort was huge after a bad ride and a slow pace. The jock of Surprise Baby said before the race he wanted to be midfield. Il Paradiso might not have been as impressive if ridden up on the pace as expected (or it might have won comfortably if up on the pace - who knows?)... and generally, Master of Reality, Finche and Prince of A were the only realistic chances that followed the hypothetical speed map. Frankie actually read the race perfectly re the slow pace on something that would stick on from an inside draw, but stuffed up at the end, maybe out of arrogance?
Craig Williams had bragging rights for pulling that off on a horse that most wouldn't have expected to be up in the top few from the barrier, but also credit to the horse who kicked on in a high pressure finish. Over all a great result for Oz and a great story but the slow pace and dumb riding by a few will be part of the story when you look back on it. |
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jacko1
Champion Joined: 26 Jun 2007 Status: Offline Points: 1801 |
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Yeah the first 6 home could have all won under slightly different scenarios... better barriers, clear runs, etc. The winner was well ridden with the light weight and was lucky with the slow pace and other runners getting held up at crucial points.
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8659 |
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This from Charlie Fellows via Twitter:
Looks like PRINCE OF ARRAN is going to get a new stamp in his passport. His next start will be in the Japan Cup on Sunday 24th November. He has come through the Melbourne Cup perfectly and will fly to Tokyo on Monday. #japancup #princeofarran |
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Foxseal
Champion Joined: 06 Dec 2011 Status: Offline Points: 2690 |
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Disappointing news regarding Prince of Arran. Was hoping he’d make an appearance at Sandown for the Zipping Classic.
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jacko1
Champion Joined: 26 Jun 2007 Status: Offline Points: 1801 |
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Big ask going to the Japan Cup.
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VOYAGER
Champion Joined: 04 Aug 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 18699 |
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Especially if you take a line through Mer De Glace, in the cup.
The Japanese for analysts, say he is a group 3 stayer and he was less than a length off POA, giving him 2 kilos or more. |
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Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8659 |
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He's also a Group 3 stayer in Europe. I wonder why he does so well in Australia... |
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Shawy38
Champion Joined: 13 Jun 2015 Status: Offline Points: 17265 |
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Surprise surprise.
Do you ever have anything positive to say? |
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SkyDancer
Champion Joined: 02 Aug 2014 Location: Cranbourne Status: Offline Points: 8428 |
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Did you know one of the owners once holidayed in Perth?
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8659 |
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Just talking in facts. |
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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VOYAGER
Champion Joined: 04 Aug 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 18699 |
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I think I should clarify my last post.
The form analysts of Japanese racing say Mer De Glace is a group 3 stayer. So for him to give weight to POA and be beaten less than a length, shows to me that POA against the top level Japanese 2400m horses will struggle. I do not understand why owners who obviously have horses who race well in Australia, do not leave them here to race. The horses racing style would suit the Australian Cup fresh, into the Tancred and then if you want go back to Europe or Japan after that. POA could win $2 million in the autumn if he stayed here! |
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Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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jacko1
Champion Joined: 26 Jun 2007 Status: Offline Points: 1801 |
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Exactly. Goes very well in Aus and struggles elsewhere. Not sure why they insist on all the travel when he seems happiest and most competitive here.
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Tlazolteotl
Champion Joined: 02 Oct 2012 Location: Elephant Butte Status: Offline Points: 31301 |
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Only a simpleton would say MDG is only G3 level in Japan. Dur - the highest level he has won at in Japan is G3, ergo he is a G3 level horse. No, dumdum. Just because G3 is the highest level he has raced at since starting his winning run and improvement does not mean G3 is his limit in Japan. It's not as if he's been failing in G2s.
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An honest politician is one who when he is bought will stay bought.
Simon Cameron |
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Second Chance
Champion Joined: 02 Dec 2007 Status: Offline Points: 45319 |
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Exactly. He's contested 5 group races and won four of them, with his only failure at that level being as a far younger horse. He's only a 4yo to NH time and will be very surprised if he doesn't prove hugely competitive in Japanese Group 1 and 2 races should connections aim in that direction before he retires.
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kavg
Champion Joined: 08 Jun 2009 Status: Offline Points: 3993 |
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Rogan Josh was only an open class horse in Perth before his Melbourne campaign.
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Prejudice is an emotional attachment to ignorance.
DiEM25 for the world. |
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8659 |
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So Timeform UK gave a rating of 117 for Vow And Declare's Cup win. It will be interesting to see what rating Timeform Australia give.
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Tlazolteotl
Champion Joined: 02 Oct 2012 Location: Elephant Butte Status: Offline Points: 31301 |
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Would be interesting to see the deductive process that Jamal used to back Vow and Declare Australian stayers are krapp - first premise The mystery part for Jamal to write - second premise Back Vow and Declare - conclusion
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An honest politician is one who when he is bought will stay bought.
Simon Cameron |
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kavg
Champion Joined: 08 Jun 2009 Status: Offline Points: 3993 |
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I don't know what other winners have rated but it surely should be one of the lowest rated Cups. Farcically run and an extremely bunched finish.
I'd rate Craig Williams 130 on Timeform and the rest of the field -13. Anyway this is what we are likely to keep getting in the years to come when the Irish dominate the race. 7 runners between Aidan and Joseph O Brien and they colluded to give it to one of their runners. Instead of putting genuine pace they sat and made it a 600m sprint home. But that is what happens in most Irish races where they dominate the field. Master of Reality,Latrobe and Twilight Payment all have no reservoir of stamina over 3200m and their only chance was to try and steal it. Interestingly none of the Coolmore/Aidan runners decided to go forward except Hunting Horn who decided he'd sit 3 wide with no cover and not attack the leading duo. Or was it to force anything that wanted to go forward to have to travel 4 wide? Yet jockey of Hunting Horn still complained that the pace was too slow!
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Prejudice is an emotional attachment to ignorance.
DiEM25 for the world. |
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8659 |
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Timeform UK/Timeform Australia: Cup Winners and their rating for Winning the Melbourne Cup - Past 20 Years
2019: Vow And Declare: 117/117 2018: Cross Counter: 124/124 2017: Rekindling: 123/123 2016 Almandin: 119/119 2015: Prince Of Penzance: 117/119 2014: Protectionist: 128/128 2013: Fiorente: 125/125 2012: Green Moon: 124/124 2011: Dunaden: 124/124 2010: Americain: 126/126 2009: Shocking: 117/119 2008: Viewed: 120/120 2007: Efficient: 123 2006: Delta Blues: 125/125 2005: Makybe Diva: 128/128 2004: Makybe Diva: 124/125 2003 Makybe Diva: 114/117 2002: Media Puzzle: 117/117 2001: Ethereal: 119/119 2000: Brew: 111/114 1999: Rogan Josh: 114/114 Edited by Gay3 - 09 Nov 2019 at 8:45pm |
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Lord Hybrow
Champion Joined: 05 Jul 2015 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 6643 |
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Timeform is such a dull way to rate races.
I prefer to rate races on the excitement factor. For me the highest rating Melb Cups of the last decade are V&D and PoP. The lowest excitement factor were C.Counter & Rekindling. |
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8659 |
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Timeform Ratings - 2019 Melbourne Cup
1st: Vow And Declare: 117 2nd: Prince Of Arran: 115 3rd: Il Paradiso: 122 4th: Master Of Reality: 118 5th: Surprise Baby: 113 6th: Mer De Glace: 118 7th: Finche: 113 8th: Cross Counter: 121 9th: Steel Prince: 110 10th: Magic Wand: 109 11th: Twilight Payment: 112 12th: Sound: 109 13th: Constantinople: 117 14th: Mirage Dancer: 113 15th: Hunting Horn: 111 16th: Raymond Tusk: 109+ 17th: The Chosen One: 110 18th: Latrobe: 108 19th: Southern France: 109 20th: Youngstar: 101 21st: Neufbosc: 103 22nd: Downdraft: 102 23rd: Mistajeer: 102 24th: Rostropovoch: No Rating |
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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kavg
Champion Joined: 08 Jun 2009 Status: Offline Points: 3993 |
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The high rating for il paradise is another example of how ridiculous timeform ratings are.
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Prejudice is an emotional attachment to ignorance.
DiEM25 for the world. |
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8659 |
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In your opinion what rating did Il Paradiso deserve?
Edited by Gay3 - 09 Nov 2019 at 8:46pm |
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Shawy38
Champion Joined: 13 Jun 2015 Status: Offline Points: 17265 |
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Timeform is an overpriced con
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Grey Affair
Champion Joined: 24 Jun 2017 Location: Queensland Status: Offline Points: 2976 |
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Il Paradiso probably gets an additional 9 or 10 pounds for being a Northern Hemisphere 3yo. |
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8659 |
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The ratings are from Timeform Australia
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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VOYAGER
Champion Joined: 04 Aug 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 18699 |
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I would understand that GA, but for one thing. He has already been given the advantage by carrying less weight!, That factor should have already been used in the rating of the performance, there should be no need for adjustment in a handicap race. You can not put up a rating in Timeform, for potential. In this race he was carrying less weight than the older POA, but POA's, form was analysed as being only slightly better than the 3yo's. And do not forget Carpenter is a member of the Timeform group for this region of the world, I hope I have read that correctly. Either the Timeform rating is on a specific performance or it is not. Either way I have a very cautious view of Timeform ratings, regardless of where the rating is given. |
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Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Grey Affair
Champion Joined: 24 Jun 2017 Location: Queensland Status: Offline Points: 2976 |
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Like it or not, that is the reason! |
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