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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Oct 2021 at 8:32pm
Alright lets see where we are for tomorrows 1000 Guineas meeting.

Caulfield.

Coongy Cup

1. No.3 - 90
2. No.1 - 90
3. No.8 - 80
4. No.2 - 77
5. No.7 - 76
6. No.6 - 74
Add ins for any scratchings are No.4 & No.5
Recommended Bet: $50 win No.3 Floating Artist
Precedent: No precedent as this is the first time back on this day.

Blue Sapphire Stakes

1. No.8 - 83
2. No.2 - 81
3. No.1 - 80
4. No.4 - 80
5. No.9 - 78
6. No.6 - 76
Add ins for any scratchings are No.3 & No.10
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.8 Minsk Moment
                              $20 win No.4 Port Louis
Precedent: No.4 Port Louis

Ladies Day Vase

1. No.2 - 84
2. No.3 - 82
3. No.1 - 82
4. No.6 - 79
5. No.9 - 77
6. No.8 - 76
Add ins for any scratchings are No.12 & No.4
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.1 Only Words
                              $10 each way No.3 Ecumenical
Precedent: No.2 Starelle


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1000 Guineas.

1. Swift Witness - 83. Comes down after running well enough in the Flight Stakes. This field is probably lacking a little less in depth from Randwick, so she has to be a hope although you will know whether she will run well in the first 200m due to the early pressure.
2. Hinged - 87. Perfect prelude for this race last start where she did have all the breaks so she may have been flattered, but she comes here in fine group 1 form. Drawn to get a lovely run, she is as adept on dry and wet and she has the ability to use the gate and get the run right behind the speed. The one to beat!
3. Elusive Express - 84. Good strong effort last start. Going on that run and through Yearning she might have to improve to win, but for me she is a filly on the up and I can see her doing exactly what Anamoe did on Saturday, sit three wide with cover and then come late. 
4. Bons A Pearler - 85. I was really taken with her prelude win where she came over the top of them. For me she has two things against her in this particular race. One she looks to be a get back run on galloper, but that might be the better thing by this time of day if the rain comes and second her two poor runs have been on soft ground. If it stays dry and she can follow Elusive Express in the three wide line she has the last 400m sectional to win this. 
5. Literary Magnate - 78. She was good fresh but second up was a little disappointing. I think she has the ability to run well but only a top four hopeful at best.
6. Zouzarella - 87. I have no doubt she is the best of the locals, but I do think Prebble needs to put her into the race early, he can not afford to get three or four pairs back on the fence here (unless it is a heavy track and the fields are fanning by this time of day). Can win but I would prefer her drawn wider.
7. Heresy - 82. Racing well and I know she has a query about her at the 1600m but from the gate I can see her dominating from the front. Definite top four hope.
8. Queen Of Dubai - 84. Is hitting form at the right time. She has the speed to cross from the gate and she looked to be holding them okay last start. Probably needs to improve a little to win, but she has to be a live chance.
9. Yearning - 84. Again she looks to be hitting form at the right time. I thought she ran well last start and her two runs prior were good when winning with 61 kilos and then not far off the top Sydney filies in the Furious. Drawn to get a lovely run and I can not believe she is $26.00+. Good value hope.
10. Barb Raider - 84. Very very good win last start. No trouble with the 1600m here and I would expect Craig Wiliiams to be driving forward and making it a real strong mile. The runner up in the Oaks Trial was extremely unlucky last saturday in the Hill Smith at Morphettville and although she might be looking for 2000m now, she has to be a serious contender.
11. Cuban Link - 75. On the up and I am sure she can acquit herself well here, but for me she is more a Geelong Classic type.
12. Achira - 76. Good win at Goulburn last start. Not saying she can win, but I can see her giving a good account. She might be the Oaks filly coming out of this race.
13. Fortunate Kiss - 78. Maybe a little down on class in this field, but she looks a nice filly and no surprise to me if she ran top four.

Ratings

1. No.2 Hinged - 87
2. No.6 Zouzarella - 87
3. No.4 Bons A Pearler - 85
4. No.3 Elusive Express - 84
5. No.10 Barb Raider - 84
6. No.9 Yearning - 84
Add ins for any scratchings are No.8 & No.1
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.2 Hinged
                              $10 Each Way No.9 Yearning
Precedent: No.1 Swift Witness

Summary: This is a good little field, I should say it is an even field with a few winning hopes. Down the page, Swift Witness ran well enough in the Flight to run well here, but the 1600m for me is still doubtful. Hinged was the perfect trial for this in the Flight and she looks like one who is peaking at the right time, the one to beat. Elusive Express was very good at Flemington, but the second filly was not  in the better fillies in Sydney so she has to improve. Bons A Pearler was fantastic in the prelude but she can not give them that sort of start here, however she has a very good last 400m so if she gets the breaks she can win. For me Literary Magnate and the bottom three can not win, but Global Link and Achira look like fillies who can improve when they step out to 2000m+ so watch them from a Oaks point of view. Zouzarella for me is the best of the locals but to get her best hope to win Prebble needs to use the gate to sit closer in the run. Heresy is a good filly but can she get the 1600m? I can not see why Queen Of Dubai can not run well again. Yearning was very good late at Flemington and she is peaking at the right time she for me is the value in the race while Barb Raider looked very good over the 1800m last start, and if dropping the 200m does not hinder which it should not if Williams uses the gate and makes it a strong speed, she is a winning hope. 

Punters Club Investments

$140 win @ $6.00 No.2 Hinged
$140 win @ $6.00 No.6 Zouzarella
$100 win @ $7.00 No.10 Barb Raider
$20 win + $50 place @ $36.00 + $6.50 No.9 Yearning
$50 win @ $14.00 No.3 Elusive Express

Good luck with all your investments!            
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Sorry for those keeping score.

The balance of our Punters Club Investments before tomorrows 1000 Guineas is -$3473.00 
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Alright lets see where we sit for Saturday and one of the five majors.

Ascot.

R.S.Crawford Stakes

1. No.2 - 85
2. No.3 - 82
3. No.1 - 79
4. No.4 - 78
5. No.7 - 76
6. No.5 - 75
Add ins for any scratchings are No.9 & No.6
Recommended Bet: $50 win No.2 Indian Pacific
Precedent: No.4 Stageman

Northerly Stakes

1. No.4 - 83
2. No.2 - 81
3. No.11- 78
4. No.8 - 77
5. No.1 - 76
6. No.7 - 75
Add ins for any scratchings are No.9 & No.10
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.4 Western Empire
                              $10 each way No.8 Uni Time
Precedent: No.11 Dance Music

Randwick

Reginald Allen Quality

1. No.5 - 84
2. No.1 - 82
3. No.4 - 78
4. No.6 - 74
5. No.7 - 72
6. No.10-70
Add ins for any scratchings are No.3 & No.12
Recommended Bet: $50 win No.1 Decent Reine
Precedent: None applicable.

The Kosciuszko

1. No.1 - 100
2. No.3 - 90
3. No.6 - 84
4. No.13- 79
5. No.5 - 77
6. No.9 - 76
Add ins for any scratchings are No.15 & No.14
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.1 Handle The Truth
                              $10 each way No.9 Island Bay Boy
Precedent: No.1 Handle The Truth

Sydney Stakes

1. No.3 - 90 (be aware this rating is for a dry track)
2. No.1 - 86
3. No.2 - 84
4. No.7 - 83
5. No.11-77
6. No.5 - 75
Add ins for any scratchings are No.4 & No.9
Recommended Bet: $10 win + $20 place No.7 Rocketing By 
                              $20 win No.2 Signore Fox
Precedent: No.7 Rocketing By

Craven Plate

1. No.1 - 100
2. No.2 - 87
3. No.11-85 (again this is for a dry track only)
4. No.10-84
5. No.3 - 80
6. No.4 - 77
Add ins for any scratchings are No.5 & No.6
Recommended Bet: $50 win No.1 Think It Over
Precedent: No.11 Hungry Heart 

ATC St.Leger

1. No.8 - 84
2. No.1 - 83
3. No.6 - 80
4. No.9 - 78
5. No.3 - 76
6. No.5 - 75
Add ins for any scratchings are No.4 & No.14
Recommended Bet: $50 win No.8 Carif (come on boy win one for the true belivers)
Precedent: No.6 Great House


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Caulfield

Gothic Stakes

1. No.3 - 84
2. No.4 - 81
3. No.1 - 79
4. No.2 - 77
5. No.7 - 75
6. No.6 - 73
Add ins for any scratchings are No.10 & No.5
Recommended Bet: $50 win No.3 Extreme Flight
Precedent: No.1 Daily Bugle

Ethereal Stakes

1. No.3 - 80
2. No.6 - 78
3. No.4 - 77
4. No.10-74
5. No.1 - 73
6. No.8 - 71
Add ins for any scratchings are No.7 & No.11
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.3 Stalking
                              $20 win No.10 Kapalua Sunset
Precedent: No.3 Stalking

Caulfield Classic

1. No.2 - 80
2. No.13 - 78
3. No.6 - 77
4. No.1 - 76
5. No.4 - 74
6. No.7 - 74
Add ins for any scratchings are No.12 & No.8
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.6 Gunstock
                              $20 win No.13 El Patroness
Precedent: No.1 Micro

Moonga Stakes

1. No.4 - 84
2. No.7 - 80
3. No.8 - 78
4. No.1 - 76
5. No.2 - 76
6. No.5 - 75
Add ins for any scratchings are No.10 & No.6
Recommended Bet: $50 win No.4 Justacanta
Precedent: No.2 Morvada

Tristarc Stakes

1. No.3 - 85
2. No.2 - 83
3. No.4 - 83
4. No.8 - 80
5. No.1 - 79
6. No.6 - 76
Add ins for any scratchings are No.5 & No.9
Recommended Bet: $50 win No.3 Nimalee
Precedent: No.2 Collette

Alinghi Stakes

1. No.9 - 82
2. No.7 - 82
3. No.6 - 80
4. No.4 - 77
5. No.18-76
6. No.2 - 75
Add ins for any scratchings are No.3 & No.8
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.9 Emanate
                               $20 win No.6 Bless Her
Precedent: No.7 Bons Abroad

Caulfield Sprint

1. No.3 - 84
2. No.8 - 82
3. No.9 - 82
4. No.12- 80
5. No.11- 78
6. No.6 - 77
Add ins for any scratchings are No.1 & No.2
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.8 General Beau
                              $20 win No.9 Oxley Road
Precedent: No.6 He's A Balter 
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Okay after the 1000 guineas and before we get to the two big ones for the weekend sees our the Punters Investment Club balance look this way -$3028.00

So lets get into these two big races.

Caulfield Cup.

1. Homesman - 84. In good form. Drops from the WFA weight to 55.5 kgs. His last run at 2400m was in this race in 2018 where he was just nosed out by Best Solution when he was coming in off a similar  run behind Benbatl. The draw has me worried but no surprise to see him run top four. Did I see him @ $51.00? That is just stupid, ridiculous odds.
2. Incentivise - 90. Ticks nearly all the boxes, except for the track, where he has not raced, and the barrier. Handles wet or dry, the 2400m is no worries, in sensational form and his jockey is flying. For me he can only win if  they charge forward from the gate and they can get three cheap 200m sections midrace. From the gate he needs everything to go right to win.
3. Explosive Jack - 85. As a classic winning 4yo this is the race he can win this spring. Weighted right up to his best but this race does not have the number or quality of internationals that Flemington will have. Good run last time out and he should sit three pairs back on the rail and do no work until the 1200m where John Allen should be looking to get out and roll forward. Not surprised he is in from $23.00 to $15.00.
4. The Chosen One - 100. The only draw back for me with him is if we get a slow 6 or worse. He loves Caulfield, is an adept 2400m+ performer, drawn to get a lovely run and his runs all this time in have been very good. Meets Delphi 1.5 kilos better from last week and has backed up well in the past. If the track is in his condition range, he can win.
5. Ocean Billy - 74. Not sure he has the speed in his legs to be competitive here at 2400m. He has form around Sound, but that is good enough for a top six finish at best.
6. Selino - 81. Excellent run last start, but that might prove to me he needs a big track. I will not back him here, but watch him for the first Tuesday's big dance. I suppose because he is at $91.00 I might be persuaded to have a coin each way.  
7. Persan - 83. Thought he fought on well last start. Has drawn to get forwad from midfield and with cover. Out to the 2400m is ideal, likes Caulfield and his jockey had a huge day at Caulfield today so she is in form. Not underestimating. 
8. Quick Thinker - 80. His form in this prep has been good on soft tracks. If we get those or worse conditions I could see him running top four.
9. Chapada - 78. Love this stable in staying events, and his last start was good but his 2400m runs for me have shown he is a 2000m horse at best. Not sure he has the quality to win here anyway.
10. Delphi - 94. I thought he was good last week, and his two runs before that were good. That barrier is a shocker, but as he showed last week with Anamoe, Oliver can sit wide with cover and find the right horse to take him into the home straight.
11. Master Of Wine - 77. Better last time out, but unless we get a bottomless heavy 10 I will bypass him winning here. His 2400m win was in a very weak race and his run in this last year while okay was not as good as The Chosen One's and others. As stated unless Noah needs his Ark, he can run without me.
12. Montefilia - 84. Ticked the distance query last start, yes in a weaker race, but I can only take that at face value. Drawn to do nothing early and can flash late. Not sure how she will go the Melbourne way as she was obviously not as good when she traveled for the Oaks last year. Has come into calculations with me.
13. Port Guilliaume - 72. Okay two starts ago, but his last run was a shocking lead in run. I am sorry but if you run that bad the start before a cup, you are not winning. 
14. She's Ideel - 82. Disappointing last start, but just got to far back. She needs to be able to use the gate and sit closer (which she has done) to have any hope here. Not sure she can win, but I can see her finishing on to fill a top four spot.
15. Young Werther - 84. Not sure about this guy. It always seems he is finding one better, however he does look to be hitting his peak maturity wise and he is hitting form at the right time. Drawn to do no work and his jockey is in good form so I can see him running well but not winning.
16. Nonconformist - 82. His last run would have been considered the best lead in run in the 1990's. Good win when beating Delphi in the Naturalism but he had everything go right and Delphi looked the genuine 2400m horse in that event. The barrier makes it harder and he can run without me but I will add him to the exotics.
17. Duais - 86. Loved her run today. She has backed up and performed well in the past and now she has shown she handles Caulfield and only has 51 kgs and has drawn to roll forward and sit right behind  a good speed she comes into calculations. She has also shown that when she hits form at 2000m+, she can be highly competitive. 
18. Charms Star - 77. Good run in the Metrop, but for me she has to improve to beat Montefilia and Duais home so not a winning hope for me.
19. Great House - 78. I thought he ran well in the Metrop, but he looks better suited in the ATC St.Leger
20. Constantinople - 65. Not if he has a 200m head start!

Ratings.

1. No.4 The Chosen One - 100
2. No.10 Delphi - 94
3. No.2 Incentivise - 90
4. No.17 Duais - 86
5. No.3 Explosive Jack - 85
6. No.1 Homesman - 84
Add ins for any scratchings are No.12 & No.15.
Recommended Bet: $20 win No.10 Delphi
                             $10 win No.4 The Chosen One
                              $10 win No.3 Explosive Jack
                              $5 each way No.1 Homesman
Precedent: No.16 Nonconformist

Summary: This is a very good betting race with at least ten hopes here, unless you think Incentivise is a good thing. From the top my winning hopes are No.1 Homesman, was just nutted in 2018 behind Best Solution and he drops a kilo into this race. No.2 Incentivise would have been a good bet, but that barrier is a huge concern. For me they can only win now if they go forward and make it a strong 2400m. No.3 Explosive Jack comes into this after a nice closing effort in the Turnbull and he will go close. No.4 The Chosen One can go two places better than last year and he might be in much better form coming into this years race. No.8 Quick Thinker can win, if the track is a slow 6 or worse. No.10 Delphi is for me the one to beat after his win last week. No.12 Montefilia is coming into this off a very nice win in the Metrop, but this is a step up in quality. No.14 She's Ideel can win if she races a litle closer from her good gate. No.16 Nonconformist can win if he can run the 2400m strongly, and No.17 Duais was very good in the Coongy and when she hits form at 2000m+ she can hold it for three or four starts, and she has backed up and ran well before. Back your own judgement.

Punters Club Investments

$80.00 win @ $27.00 No.3 Explosive Jack
$80.00 win @ $31.00 No.4 The Chosen One
$100.00 win @ $8.50 No.10 Delphi
$40.00 win @$23.00 No.17 Duais
$30.00 each way @ $61.00 + $12.00 No.1 Homesman
$30.00 each way @ $61.00 + $12.00 No.7 Persan
$40.00 Same Race Multi No.2 Incentivise to win + No.4 The Chosen One Top 4
$20.00 Same Race Multi No.2 Incentivise to win + No.1 Homesman Top 4
$20.00 Same Race Multi No.2 Incentivise to win + No.3 Explosive Jack Top 4
          
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The Everest.

1. Nature Strip - 100. No chinks in his armour. Can handle the wet and dry, 1200m is no trouble and he loves Randwick. This race has been an achilles heel for him in the last two runnings, but if I know Waller, he will have him primed to show the world how good he is. The barrier is awkward, but he can sit three deep with cover and win.
2. Classique Legend - 100. At his best he is the one to beat. I know his trainer is good, but I can not believe that he will be at his best here off three trials. For me he is unders and he is only the favorite because others have run and been beaten. Gets a lovely run and will be charging late. One of the winning hopes.
3. Eduardo - 90. The 1200m is his hurdle to overcome and I am betting against him. I think he can hang on for a top four spot, but for me he wont hold off all of his opponents. Place hope.
4. Gytrash - 100. If the rain comes he is just about a good bet. Absolutely brilliant draw, will sit right behind the speed and he will strong at the end. Fantastic fresh run and with the improvement he will gain from that he is the hardest to hold out.
5. Trekking - 90. Not sure he is racing as well as he has coming into this race in the last two years. The 1200m will suit and again he will get a lovely run. He can run well again.
6. Masked Crusader - 84. I have no doubt he is talented enough to win here, but this is the strongest race he has contested and he can not give them eight lengths at the 600m. Because he has no hope doing that, I would try and ride him closer, but that probably will not happen. Top four hope.
7. Wild Ruler - 80. Looked good winning last start, but on his ratings with me this is beyond him. 
8. The Inferno - 82. I think he is the value in the field @ $26.00. He does have to race closer, but he will strong at the end and no surprise if he was to place.
9. Embracer - 65. How has this horse made this field? Oh well good luck with that.
10. Lost And Running - 70. Not going well enough and will need the heavens to open for him to have any chance.
11. Libertini - 84. First up form is brilliant and if she can find that Premiere Stakes run from last year where she made Classique Legend look like a Broken Hi9ll maiden, she can win. Her trials have been a little ordinary and she hates any wet tarcks so keep the hoses and taps shut off and keep the water away.
12. Home Affairs - 80. He is the up and comer, and his last start win was awesome defeating a quality 3yo sprinter. Not sure there is a lot of depth to that form, but he he has the Waller/Boss/Coolmore treble that Yes Yes Yes had when he won. I think can get a lovely run from the gate right behind the speed and can come late. He is a winning hope.
13. Kementari - 76. Good win last start but he can not win in this grade at WFA.
14. Signore Fox - 77. Better off in the Sydney Stakes.
15. Standout - 78. Again like Libertini if there is one drop of rain, he is not good enough.
16. Chat - 65. No.

Ratings.

1. No.4 Gytrash - 100
2. No.1 Nature Strip - 100
3. No.2 Classique Legend - 100
4. No.3 Eduardo - 90
5. No.5 Trekking - 90
6. No.6 Masked Crusader - 84
Add ins for any scratchings are No.11 & No.8
Recommended Bet: $10 win + $40 place No.4 Gytrash
Precedent: No.1 Nature Strip

Summary: Well good luck here! If I knew he was as fit as possible then Classique Legend would be a good bet, and while I think he can win I will not be backing him. For me it comes down to three winning hopes and several place chances. No.1 Nature Strip has opne belmish in his CV and it is this race. I think if he was to win this race then the connections would not care whether he won another race ever, so he should be tuned right up here. No.2 Classique Legend is a winning hope. No.4 Gytrash is good value here. He will get a lovely run and he will be hard to hold out while No.12 Home Affairs does fit the bill of 3yo's running well here. Eduardo, Trekking and Masked Crusader are place hopes and The Inferno is capable of running well at long odds.

Punters Club Investments.

$110.00 win @$4.70 No.1 Nature Strip
$110.00 win @$5.50 No.2 Classique Legend
$100.00 win @$9.50 No.4 Gytrash           
$  60.00 win @$9.00 No.3 Eduardo
$  50.00 win @$13.00 No.12 Home Affairs
$20 win + $50 place @ $34.00 + $6.50 No.8 The Inferno

Good luck to all investors for the weekend!
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Geelong

Geelong Classic

1. No.4 - 75
2. No.1 - 73
3. No.3 - 72
4. No.6 - 69
5. No.5 - 67
6. No.8 - 65
Add ins for any scratchings are No.2 & No.7
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.4 Character
                               $10 each way No.8 Daario
Precedent: No.1 Tutukaka

Geelong Cup

1. No.8 - 84
2. No.1 - 82
3. No.6 - 78
4. No.14-77
5. No.2 - 77
6. No.7 - 75
Add ins for any scratchings are No.3 & No.5
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.8 Tralee Rose
                              $10 each way No.3 Johnny Get Angry (hopefully the track is dry)
Precedent: No.2 Defibrillate

Black Pearl Stakes

1. No.8 - 80
2. No.3 - 78
3. No.10-76
4. No.5 - 75
5. No.13-74
6. No.7 - 71
Add ins for any scratchings are No.1 & No.9
Recommended Bet: $50 win No.8 Best Stone
Precedent: No.1 Night Raid

Good luck with all your investments!  
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Okay before we get to the Manikato the Punters Club Investment balance is -$3144.00

Manikato Stakes

1. Streets Of Avalon - 82. Has group 1 WFA form but is he racing at his peak this prep? I can see him getting a good run, but place best for me.
2. Jonker - 83. The form from his last start stood up last Saturday when Masked crusader ran second and Lost And Running ran fourth and Standout was runner up in the Sydney Stakes. If he can sit right behind the speed he will get his chance, but does he run at his best the Melbourne way?
3. Despatch - 73. His fresh form is not great and on that alone he can not win here. I also think he is not a WFA group 1 sprint although this is not a genuine group 1 field.
4. Savatoxl - 87. The only negative for me is the track. If he handles MV he looks the winner on my ratings. Won the Schillaci fresh and this looks a lovely second up assignment.
5. Express Pass - 80. Loves MV but he is stepping up in grade here. I will take a pass here.
6. Lombardo - 85. Again he is stepping out of lesser grade to a group 1 level, but he looks the up and comer. He will be meeting horses here with more conviction near the winning post than Pandemic, but as long as he can get a couple of easy sections midrace he can win.
7. Away Game - 80. Not sure she gets the right run here and she has fallen short at the top level in the past although as I keep saying this is not the strongest group 1 field I have seen.
8. Bella Nipotina - 83. They need to use that gate to sit right behind the leader because if she gets two pairs behind the leaders she is history. I thought she ran okay behind Pippie in last years Moir Stakes, but she is racing far better now. I need the double figures, but she is not hopeless!
9. Swats That - 83. She is the one drawn wide who could be well suited if the track is playing for run ons. Just got to far back in the Moir and 1200m is more suitable. Not sure how she is a longer price than Bella Nipotina, but I can back her each way.
10. La Mexicana - 78. Not sure she is up to this but she is racing well and she will race forward. Not for me.
11. Ingratiating - 81. Is he a 1200m horse? That last run was a shocker and I am not sure he has come on from his fresh win. He is a winning hope but he will need everything to go right!
12. Sneaky Five - 84. Obviously stepping up in grade here, but that fresh win was awesome and she did carry 57kgs there and drops to 51 here which means she can finish off harder here. Not underselling her here.
13. Crystal Bound - 80. She has drawn to sit in the lead, but she was outpointed by a smart filly last start. 3yo fillies do not have a great record in this race and when they do they are usually in the top three or four sprinters of their age group, and she is not in that class so she can run without me.

Ratings.

1. No.4 Savatoxl - 87
2. No.6 Lombardo - 85
3. No.12 Sneaky Five - 84
4. No.2 Jonker - 83
5. No.9 Swats That - 83
6. No.8 Bella Nipotina - 83
Add ins for any scratchings are No.1 & No.11
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.4 Savatoxl
                             $20 win No.12 Sneaky Five
Precedent: No.8 Bella Nipotina

Summary: This is a very weak group 1 field and that is shown by the fact that Bella nipotina has a 83 rating. I like Savatoxl here. Good fresh win and better suited at 1200m. Has not run at Moonee Valley so that is a potential hurdle, but should get a lovely run and be hard to hold out. Sneaky Five was sensational fresh and while  3yo fillies do not win often, she has the ability to finish off hard and will be coming late. Lombardo can run time and he likes the track, but he steps up to WFA group 1 level and will get pressure from La Mexicana and Crystal Bound among others. Bella Nipotina looks to be in career best form and Streets Of Avalon is better suited here and he fits the older group 1 sprinter coming into this in fair but not great form at around $31.00. For me Ingratiating needs to win a group 1 1200m race before I back him in one. 

Punters Club Investments

$200 win @ $5.80 No.4 Savatoxl
$100 win @ $11.00 No.12 Sneaky Five
$  80 win @ $8.50  No.11 Ingratiating
$  50 win @ $12.00 No.2 Jonker
$  20 win + $50 Place @ $46.00 + $8.00 No.1 Streets Of Avalon

Good luck to all investors!    
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Alright lets get onto the Saturday meetings.

Randwick

Brian Crowley Stakes.

1. No.7 - 80
2. No.1 - 78
3. No.4 - 77
4. No.8 - 75
5. No.2 - 74
6. No.5 - 74
Add ins for any scratchings are No.9 & No.3
Recommended Bet: $50 win No.7 Zarastro
Precedent: No.1 O'President

City Tatt's Cup

1. No.3 - 85
2. No.8 - 82
3. No.2 - 80
4. No.1 - 80
5. No.6 - 77
6. No.4 - 77
Add ins for any scratchings are No.7 & No.9
Recommended Bet: $50 win No.3 Zeyrek
Precedent: No.1 Carif

Bondi Stakes

1. No.1 - 85
2. No.2 - 82
3. No.3 - 80
4. No.4 - 78
5. No.6 - 75
6. No.7 - 72
Add ins for any scratchings are No.9 & No.8
Recommended Bet: $50 win No.1 Hilal
Precedent: No.1 Hilal

The Invitation

1. No.7 - 100
2. No.6 - 80
3. No.10-78
4. No.12-77
5. No.8 - 76
6. No.4 - 76
Add ins for any scratchings are No.11 & No.2
Recommended Bet: $20 win + $30 place No.4 Forbidden Love
Precedent: This is the first year of this race so no precedent available.

Moonee Valley

William Crockett Stakes

1. No.2 - 77
2. No.1 - 76
3. No.3 - 75
4. No.8 - 72
5. No.6 - 71
6. No.7 - 68
Add ins for any scratchings are No.4 & No.5
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.2 New York Baby
                              $20 win No.1 Robodira
Precedent: No.8 Our Heidi

Red Anchor Stakes

1. No.9 - 90
2. No.1 - 88
3. No.5 - 86
4. No.8 - 82
5. No.4 - 80
6. No.6 - 77
Add ins for any scratchings are No.7 & No.2
Recommended Bet: $50 win No.9 Dosh
Precedent: No.1 He's Exceptional

Fillies Classic

1. No.3 - 82
2. No.4 - 79
3. No.2 - 77
4. No.1 - 76
5. No.5 - 75
6. No.7 - 75
Add ins for any scratchings are No.8 & No.11
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.3 Fortunate Kiss
                               $20 win No.7 Maracana
Precedent: No.3 Fortunate Kiss

Crystal Mile

1. No.5 - 85
2. No.4 - 81
3. No.6 - 79
4. No.8 - 77
5. No.1 - 76
6. No.10-75
Add ins for any scratchings are No.3 & No.2
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.5 Elephant
                              $20 win No.6 Second Slip
Precedent: No.8 Embolism

Moonee Valley Vase

1. No.1 - 100
2. No.14-75
3. No.11-73
4. No.3 - 71
5. No.6 - 70
6. No.8 - 68
Add ins for any scratchings are No.13 & No.10
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.1 Forgot You
                              $20 place No.11 Samarkand
Precedent: No.1 Forgot You

Moonee Valley Gold Cup

1. No.10 - 85
2. No.12 - 83
3. No.  5 - 80
4. No.  7 - 78
5. No.  1 - 76
6. No.  3 - 75
Add ins for any scratchings are No.2 & No.8
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.10 Pondus
                              $20 win No.12 Floating Artist
Precedent: No.7 Harpo Marx

Tesio Stakes

1. No.5 - 87
2. No.6 - 84
3. No.7 - 83
4. No.9 - 79
5. No.11-77
6. No.13- 75
Add ins for any scratchings are No.1 & No.3
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.5 Magna Belle
                              $20 win No.6 Starelle
Precedent: No.9 Grace And Harmony

Matamata

Soliloquy Stakes 

1. No.3 - 82
2. No.4 - 80
3. No.1 - 78
4. No.9 - 76
5. No.5 - 75
6. No.7 - 75
Add ins for any scratchings are No.14 & No.15
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.3 Ziegfeld
                              $20 win Eve Chiara
Precedent: No.3 Ziegfeld

Riccarton Park

War Decree Stakes

1. No.3 - 82
2. No.1 - 80
3. No.2 - 78
4. No.5 - 77
5. No.7 - 74
6. No.10-73
Add ins for any scratchings are No.4 & No.8
Recommended Bet: $50 win No.3 Noverre
Precedent: No.2 Mackenzie Lad

Spring Classic

1. No.3 - 81
2. No.2 - 78
3. No.7 - 76
4. No.9 - 75
5. No.13- 73
6. No.15- 72
Add ins for any scratchings are No.14 & No.11
Recommended Bet: $50 place No.5 Leaderboard

   
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Cox Plate

1. Zaaki - 83. Fresh win was awesome, but his two runs in Melbourne have been underwhelming. Should get a lovely run and he can win but he is a little short for me to back.
2. Dalasan - 83. He is probably better suited in handicaps, but he comes here at his fourth run this prep and if he can reproduce his Queen Elizabeth run last prep, he is a winning chance. I think he is over the odds here.
3. Gold Trip - 81. He seems to be very similar to last years winner Sir Dragonet which to me means he will be better over 2400m. He is a winning hope, but you can not back all runners and I will let him run without me.
4. Callsign Mav - 72. Not good enough! I have seen leaders like him fall into a fourth or fifth spot and that is his best hope. 
5. Mo'unga - 88. For me he has had the perfect prep and he ticks just about every box, except for the Moonee Valley track. Drawn to get a lovely run and he is great value.
6. Verry Elleegant - 84. Am willing to forget her last start run but for me she needs it wet to win. I am also not sure she is racing right at her best this prep.
7. Probabeel - 85. I think she comes in as a genuine winning hope, if the track stays dry. At 2000m she can sit closer during the race but she needs it dry.
8. State Of Rest - 78. First time at 2000m, his last win was good but while he is an improving type his form does lack substance. Never underestimate the stable, but I have to let him run without me.
9. Anamoe - 81. No doubting his class and he comes in here as a 3yo similar to All Too Hard and others , but he is way too short and while 3yo's have won the race they are more likely to finish second or third and that is where I think he can finish, second or third.
10. Captivant - 81. To me he has had a perfect prep for this. The 2000m has looked like it would suit, I can see Yendall going forward on him and for me he represents good value.

Ratings

1. No.5 Mo'unga - 88
2. No.7 Probabeel - 85
3. No.6 Verry Elleegant - 84
4. No.1 Zaaki - 83
5. No.2 Dalasan - 83
6. No.10 Captivant - 81
Add ins for any scratchings are No.9 & No.3
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.5 Mo'unga
                              $10 each way No.2 Dalasan
Precedent: No.1 Zaaki

Summary: While this is not the best ever Cox Plate, it was a very intriguing race to do the form for. From the top, if you are on Zaaki I would not worry about his last start run but on my ratings he is not in the form he was in in Brisbane, Dalasan is more suited to handicaps, but you can nod and if he reproduced that here he would go close, he is the big overs. I am aware it might come back to bite me but I am leaving the two internationals, I will put them in the exotics but not back them. Callsign Mav has no chance but I have those leaders scramble into fourth or fifth spot so he can fill one of those spots. For me Mo'unga has had a great preparation for this race and he is the one to beat. Verry Elleegant and Probabeel can both win, but they need a wet or dry track respectively. Both 3yo's are place hopes but my ratings have Captivant the better winning chance.

Punters Club Investments

$100 win @ $18.00 No.5 Mo'unga  
$50 each way @ $101.00 + $14.00 No.2 Dalasan
$100 win @ $7.00 No.6 Verry Elleegant
$50 win + $150 Place @ $26.00 + $4.60 No.10 Captivant

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Sorry for the incomprehensible summary but I am having connection issues.
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Alright lets see what is happening for Saturday.

Ascot.

Prince Of Wales Stakes.

1. No.2 - 100
2. No.5 - 88
3. No.4 - 86
4. No.1 - 84
5. No.9 - 80
6. No.8 - 78
Add ins for any scratchings are No.3 & No.6
Recommended Bet: $50 win No.2 Elite Street
Precedent: No.5 Stageman

Asian Beau Stakes

1. No.1 - 84
2. No.3 - 81
3. No.2 - 78
4. No.5 - 77
5. No.9 - 77
6. No.4 - 77
Add ins for any scratchings are No.8 & No.6
Recommended Bet: $50 win No.1 Uni Time
Precedent: No.3 Naughty By Nature

Awapuni

Fielding Gold Cup

1. No.6 - 82
2. No.2 - 80
3. No.10-77
4. No.4 - 76
5. No.7 - 75
6. No.13- 74
Add ins for any scratchings are No.3 & No.5
Recommended Bet: $50 win No.6 Trosettee
Precedent: No.2 House Of Cartier

Tauranga

Transport Trophy

1. No.1 - 85
2. No.2 - 81
3. No.6 - 79
4. No.9 - 77
5. No.7 - 76
6. No.12-76
Add ins for any scratchings are No.11 & No.5
Recommended Bet: $50 win No.1 Vernanme
Precedent: No.6 Frontman

 
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Rosehill

Rosehill Gold Cup

1. No.2 - 100
2. No.6 - 88
3. No.1 - 85
4. No.3 - 83
5. No.5 - 81
6. No.11-79
Add ins for any scratchings are No.4 & No.7
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.2 Think It Over
                              $20 win No.1 Gold Trip
Precedent: No Precedent available.

Classique Legend Stakes

1. No.2 - 84
2. No.3 - 81
3. No.11-79
4. No.5 - 77
5. No.12-75
6. No.13- 74
Add ins for any scratchings are No.4 & No.10
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.2 Masked Crusader
                              $10 each way No.8 Standout
Precedent: No.13 Lost And Running
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Golden Eagle

1. No.1 - 90
2. No.4 - 87
3. No.9 - 84
4. No.11-82
5. No.2 - 80
6. No.7 - 80
Add ins for any scratchings are No.16 & No.6
Recommended Bet: $10 win No.2 I'm Thunderstruck
                              $20 win No.4 Apache Chase
                              $10 each way No.7 Amish Boy
Precedent: No.18 Atishu 


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Flemington

Carbine Club Stakes

1. No.3 - 82
2. No.11- 78
3. No.1  - 77
4. No.8  - 75
5. No.2 - 72
6. No.6 - 71
Add ins for any scratchings are No.10 & No.5
Recommended Bet: $50 win No.3 Prix De Turn
Precedent: No.1 Brigantine

Hotham Handicap

1. No.4 - 82 (he does seem to perform best on soft or worse tracks so just be aware of that)
2. No.1 - 77
3. No.3 - 75
4. No.9 - 70
5. No.6 - 69
6. No.7 - 68
Add ins for any scartchings are No.2 & No.5
Recommended Bet: $10 win + $40 place No.9 King's Charisma
Precedent: No.3 Le Don De Vie

Wakeful Stakes

1. No.1 - 82
2. No.2 - 80
3. No.4 - 80
4. No.3 - 80
5. No.6 - 73
6. No.8 - 70
Add ins for any scratchings are No.5 & No.11
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.1 Yearning
                               $20 win No.4 Barb Raider
Precedent: No.3 El Patroness

Linlithgow Stakes

1. No.2 - 100
2. No.3 - 88
3. No.1 - 85
4. No.8 - 82
5. No.4 - 79
6. No.7 - 77
Add ins for any scratchings are No.5 & No.9
Recommended Bet: $50 win No.2 Kemalpasa
Precedent: No.3 Instant Celebrity

Begonia Belle Stakes

1. No.1 - 90
2. No.5 - 85
3. No.9 - 84
4. No.11- 80
5. No.10-77
6. No.6 - 75
Add ins for any scratchings are No.7 & No.14
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.1 September Run
                              $20 win No.9 Ballistic Lover
Precedent: No.16 Never Talk

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Alright lets see of we can turn our deficit into a profit with a big week of group 1 racing beginning we are -$3544.00. 

Empire Rose Stakes.

1. Collette - 88. Obviously she needs a wet track to perform at her best but her effort in the Makybe Diva on a good track shows she can mix it with the better horses on a dry track. She can win!
2. Mystic Journey - 100. This is a perfect race for her. Is already a group 1 winner at the track and distance, she has drawn to sit either on the pace or right behind it and she has had a perfect prep. Right in this.
3. Tofane - 100. Her last two runs have been terrific and she comes here in career best form. had to give a good up and coming younger horse 6 kilos last start but she was right with him late. Drawn to go forward and again she is a undeniable chance here in a loaded field.
4. Sierra Sue - 85. In great form and she has drawn the inside gate but that might not suit here. If she gets the gaps late she can go close, but I do prefer her at 1400m.
5. Still A Star - 100. I know she does not have group 1 form like some others but she is a huge hope here. Drawn well, will be right behind the speed and she loves the track. I can see no reason why 1600m will not suit and she will look the winner at some stage in the straight.
6. Nimalee - 80. I was disappointed in her last start. Her good track form is just about flawless, but it has been in inferior company. She is out to $31.00 and I could go each way here as she should get a nice run, but she will need a career best to win.
7. Mirra Vision - 77. Comes through a lesser race, but it was a good win. Deserves her spot here, but might be aiming a little high.
8. Hungry Heart - 82. Going okay, but is she looking for 2000m. She has the quality and the dry track suits so she has to go in as a hope.
9. Amarelinha - 80. She has had a bit of an interrupted prep, but she looks well placed here. The 1600m will suit, she will like the dry track and she will sit right up near the speed. Could be overs here!
10. Sirileo Miss - 77. Is going well, but she is coming through the lesser grade. Drawn wide and not sure she will be able to reach the career best she will need. I will let her run without me.
11. Harmony Rose - 77. Not sure she is going well enough but she looks one of the few to go forward and she should be cherry ripe fitness wise. At $41.00 she can run better than her odds.
12. Kiku - 74. Needs a career best and not for me.
13. Flying Mascot - 77. Good win last week but again she steps up to the top grade here. Mares in form can improve but for me there are better mares here. No surprise if she ran well but I cant see her winning.
14. Pride Of Jenni - 75. Looks well suited here and she does appear to keep her best for Flemington. Is one who will go forward but she will need a career best effort.
15. Steinem - 77. I thought her last start effort was very good, but she meets Collette worse at the weights. I think she is aiming at the Matriarch next Saturday but no surprise if she was to run well. 

Ratings.

1. No.2 Mystic Journey - 100
2. No.3 Tofane - 100
3. No.5 Still A Star - 100
4. No.1 Collette - 88
5. No.4 Sierra Sue - 85
6. No.8 Hungry Heart - 82
Add ins for any scratchings are No.9 & No.6
Recommended Bet: $10 win No.2 Mystic Journey
                             $10 win No.5 Still A Star
                               $5 win + $10 place No.8 Hungry Heart
                               $5 win + $10 place No.9 Amarelinha
Precedent: No.1 Collette

Summary: This is the best race for the day in Australia. With Collette, Tofane, Mystic Journey, Sierra Sue, Hungry Heart and Amarelinha we have a good group 1 quality in the field and mares like Harmony Rose and Still A Star have a genuine case for winning here. I have settled on the two Tasmanian mares here. Both love Flemington and both should have no trouble with the 1600m. I have sworn off 4yo's for this week, but Hungry Heart and Amarelinha look well placed and both mares are genuine hopes on a dry track. Collette is all class and she can win on a dry track but I would be more confident on a wet track. Tofane is all class and she looks to get a lovely run here. Many hopes!

Punters Club Investments

$140 win @ $  7.00 No.2 Mystic Journey
$100 win @ $14.50 No.5 Still A Star
$  50 win @ $22.00 No.8 Hungry Heart
$  50 win @ $26.00 No.9 Amarelinha
$160 win @ $  8.25 No.1 Collette
 

                           


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Victoria Derby my goodness this is a weak group 1.

1. Forgot You - 79. His two runs here at Flemington have not been his best (although they were at 1400m). His win last week was okay, but he had enough quality to get the job done. drawn to stay off the fence and he should run well, but he will need to bring his best to win and he will need everything to go right.
2. Tutukaka - 77. Good win at Geelong. he lacks class, but he looks as though the 2500m will suit. Place hope.
3. Alegron - 81. Comes through a strong Spring Champion and looks well placed here. Prebble on and he can sit a little closer from the draw over 2500m. I know he will be in the finish and he looks good value at double figures. 
4. Gunstock - 79. Barrier is horrific. His form is okay, but the way the race will be run, can he overcome that gate? Will run well but can he win?
5. Akihiro - 74. Last week was a little underwhelming. Not sure he is good enough here!
6. Character - 77. How is he $41.00? Thought his run was better than the winner at Geelong where he had to roll forward 2 and 3 deep from the 1000m and then he was left s sitting shot for the winner but he fought on well. Form before that was acceptable but he looks like one runner who is looking for the 2500m. He will run better than his $41.00 odds.
7. Jungle Magnate - 78. Lobed his run last week behind Forgot You. He lacks an automatic acceleration but if he can find the back of one to take him into the race from the 1000m he can keep coming. He needs to settle closer than last week but from the gate he should be able to do that. Absolute chance!
8. Commander Harry - 75. If he had drawn better he would be a better hope. Had form around Hitotsu and then ran well last week. Can run top five!
9. Hitotsu - 76. Trusting the stable here because he is coming straight from the Guineas to the Derby. Drawn to get a lovely run and as long as he does not have a lot of ground to make up late, he can run well.
10. Cerebus - 74. It was a good win last start but that form has not stood up. Not totally dismissing but he can run without my support.
11. Gundec - 69. The form from his races is not the best and he was outstayed  by others last start. Triple figures runner.
12. Clyde - 60. I guess the owners need some tickets to the members, if they are vaccinated.
13. El Rocko - 65. Looks to be making up the numbers. 
14. Raging Bull - 70. Not hopeless in the Spring champion, but he looks to get a similar run here where he will be wide in the run. If Mick Dee can get cover and latch onto the back of one to take him into the race he can stay on for a top four spot.
15. Cheerful Moment - 70. Looks to be struggling in this grade.
16. Teewaters - 77. If you are looking for one at odds he could be the guy. Good effort last start and it looks like the 2500m will suit. Should sit closer and get every hope.
17. Zoumon - 65. If Gai and Bossy can get this guy winning here they are geniuses.
18. Sebastian The Fox - 73. Was outpointed last run but he stuck on okay. Not sure how he is $201.00 and others are shorter, but he can run top six.
19. King Of Pharoahs - 62. Good luck to the connections and wish the jockey all the best but better off somewhere else.
20. Spirit Of Gaylard - 74. I thought he got home hard last week and I think the 2500m and Flemington will suit him but he is the fourth emergency. If he got into the field I could see him running a race.

Ratings.

1. No.3 Alegron - 81
2. No.1 Forgot You - 79
3. No.4 Gunstock - 79
4. No.7 Jungle Magnate - 78
5. No.16 Teewaters - 77
6. No.6 Character - 77
Add ins for any scratchings are No.2 & No.9
Recommended Bet: $10 win No.3 Alegron
                              $10 each way No.7 Jungle Magnate
                               $10 each way No.16 Teewaters     
Precedent: No.7 Jungle Magnate

Summary: Good luck here because we will all need it. The form in Victoria has been underwhelming for me so I have settled on Alegron. Good effort in the Spring Champion and he Prebble aboard and has drawn well. I thought No.7 Jungle Magnate was very very good last week. He over raced two starts ago, but settled nicely last week, and he looks like Flemington and the 2500m will suit him. No.16 Teewaters again looks like the 2500m and Flemington will suit and he has drawn to get every chance. If Raging Bull had have drawn well I would have him an each way hope, but that barrier is a huge hurdle to overcome. I though No.6 Character was a good effort at Geelong. The two favorites have the better form but they are not dominating coming into the derby and for me they are not value. I thought No.20 Spirit Of Gaylard ran well last week, so if he was to some how get a run he would be a good each way hope. No.9 Hitotsu is good enough but you have to trust the stable's prep to back him. If you like something back it!

Punters Club Investments.

$100 win @ $  5.00 No.1 Forgot You
$100 win @ $13.50 No.3 Alegron
$  50 win @ $29.00 No.7 Jungle Magnate
$  50 win @ $29.00 No.16 Teewaters
$100 place @$5.50 No.7 Jungle Magnate
$50 each way @ $51.00 + $9.00 No.20 Spirit Of Gaylard (if he does not get a run we will have the $100 the place @ $5.50 on No.16 Teewaters.)


  
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Coolmore Stud Stakes

1. Shaquero - 75. The form from his two runs this time in is weak. Jumps back to the full weight and I am just not seeing him being a group 1 winner. 
2. Artorius - 81. I do not like horses who are coming back here from the Caulfield Guineas. If they are coming back from the Golden Rose that is fine, but it is an extra run and and extra 200m to drop. His form is good this prep but it is still not where I thought eh would be. He has the talent to win but there are better hopes for me.
3. Ingratiating - 77. Good run last time out but he still has not won at 1200m. His straight track form is inconsistent and while he is at his right price for me he is a place hope at best.
4. In The Congo - 84. Going well and his form is just right for this race. I can see him getting a nice run, cover wise, and he is one of the best hopes.
5. Home Affairs - 79. Last start was okay against the top echelon of sprinters. $12.00 looks the right price and he can go close.
6. Paulele - 81. His form is okay, but he has found Home Affairs and In The Congo better than him this prep. Not sure he is a winning hope but can run well.
7. Kallos - 80. His Danehill win was awesome and I can see no reason why he would not be just as good here. Is the up and comer and he is hitting form at the right time.
8. Ranch Hand - 75. If you look at his form one thing hits you in the face, he is a fresh horse. He had a huge drop in rating from his fresh win, to the Danehill run so I have to take him on. 
9. Extreme Warrior - 82. Really put them away last start. That was his first run at 1200m and he put in a career best performance. Up a notch in class here but if he can handle the straight he is one of the winning hopes.
10. Extreme Flight - 79. He was going to win easy last start, but he looked like he only just ran the 1400m out, so the drop back to 1200m should suit. Stepping up to the better 3yo's here, so while he is winning, for me he is just a top four hope.
11. Sword Of State - 75. I think he has the talent to win, but his current form is not up to this. Maybe the straight will suit, and I might take the $51.00 myself, he is a place hope at best.
12. Bruckner - 80. His last two runs have been good, and he drops in weight from the Danehill so he has that factor in his favor from every other runner from that race. His best run was at the 1200m when he defeated Artorius and Heresy so he is suited by the distance. He might be the overs @ $34.00.
13. Overpass - 77. Might be looking for 1400m, but if he can have an easy first 400m he can finish off. Not sure he can win, but he can finish top five. 
14. Marine One - 74. His form is several levels below this. Not here.
15. Minsk Moment - 75. How can he turn the tables on Extreme Warrior? I just can not see him making up 6.5 lengths to beat Extreme Warrior so for me he is not a chance here.
16. Battleton - 75. Good run last week but Mazu would be about $41.00 here. Up in grade, up in weight, down the straight for the first time and backing up within seven days. Too much to overcome for me to back him. 
17. Gimme Par - 77. The fillies have consistently been behind the males and I can see that happening here once again. No surprise if she ran top five, but can not win. 

Ratings.

1. No.4 In The Congo - 84
2. No.9 Extreme Warrior - 82
3. No.2 Artorius - 81
4. No.6 Paulele - 81
5. No.7 Kallos - 80
6. No.12 Bruckner - 80
Add ins for any scratchings are No.5 & No.10
Recommended Bet: $20 win No.4 In The Congo
                              $10 each way No.12 Bruckner
                               $5 each way No.11 Sword Of State
Precedent: No.7 Kallos

Summary: A consistent field of sprinters with no dominator and so we have a field full of hopes and lets start with the winning hopes. I like In The Congo. Coming back from the 1400m suits this race and he looks well placed. Extreme Warrior won the Blue Sapphire well and he looks a definite winning hope, along with Kallos who won the Danehill running strongly through the line. Bruckner has grown a leg down in Melbourne and his two runs have been great and he drops from the 58.5kgs from there to 57 here and he is back out to 1200m, definite chance. Paulele is racing well but he has been found wanting behind Home Affairs and In The Congo. Artorius came in to the spring one of the horses to watch but his form has been middling, at best. Dropping back from the 1600m of the Caulfield Guineas is not a good recipe for this race so he can run without me. Ingratiating has been inconsistent this prep and his 1200m form is not his best, but he can run well. Overpass and Sword Of State can run well at odds. Home Affairs ran okay against the top sprinters last start, but he needs a career best here to win.

Punters Club Investments.

$150 win @ $6.00 No.4 In The Congo
$100 win @ $4.80 No.9 Extreme Warrior
$30 win + $50 place @ $51.00 + $8.50 No.12 Bruckner
$100 win @$14.50 No.7 Kallos
$  70 win @$14.50 No.5 Home Affairs         
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Cantala Stakes

1. Zoutori - 76. His 1600m performances are not his highest rating, but they are not terrible. I am absolutely convinced however that he can not carry the topweight here and win. 
2. Cascadian - 100. Good handicapper and his Epsom run is good enough to win here. Ran 3rd in this last year and he has improved since, probably why he is carrying 3 kilos more. Winning hope despite the barrier. 
3. Superstorm - 100. Looks well placed here. Good run last start in the Toorak when giving a top young horse a huge amount of weight. Likes Flemington, is a good miler, and he has drawn well for him to sit in the three deep line and surge late with a uninterrupted run. Definite winning hope.
4. Riodini - 84. They went hard in the Epsom and he had no gas left late. Not quite as much pressure here but he now needs to carry the 55 kgs in a field full of talent. Not sure he can win but he will be there until the final stride.
5. Buffalo River - 74. Good win last start but he is vulnerable here at 1600m, in a full field and against proper group 1 horses. Linda Meech will rate him nicely but I think he will fall short in the last 100m.
6. Aramayo - 88. This horse is in sensational form. All 3 of his runs in Sydney were outstanding and he comes here with a similar formline to last years winner Yulong Prince. Forget his Flemington record as three of those runs were off a 26 week spell and his return from Singapore and the other was in the VRC Derby behind Extra Brut so things were against him. Weighted nicely, drawn to sit closer from the gate and  he ahs a jockey on who rides Flemington very well. The one to beat!
7. Icebath - 80. Very good mare, but for me she is better on a wet track and at 1400m. Her mile record is good but this is just as tough as the Doncaster and Epsom and she has to carry 53.5kgs. She is a definite winning hope if she can secure a good run from her gate. so you will know how you will go within the first two hundred meters.
8. Lunar Fox - 86. Here we go! 1600m, Flemington, 4th up and weighted to win. I am expecting him to drift out to $51.00+ again so this could be the big go late on the day. Drawn well, Brett Prebble on board and he will give you a hug huge sight. Definite winning hope.
9. Kahma Lass - 75. Going well but she meets a tough field here. No surprise if she ran well, but can not win.
10. Quantum Mechanic - 86. Here is another one at good odds which can be backed with confidence. Loves Flemington, suited at the 1600m, drawn well and is weighted to win. She has been set for this day and obviously the stable feel this is the slightly easier race to target. Winning hope.
11. Chaillot - 79. Just missed in the Empire Rose this day last year but her other mile form is not up to this grade. Good win last time, but not sure that form is as high grade as some others and while she loves Flemington and should get a lovely run she is only a place hope for me.
12. Just Folk - 77. Good win last week, but that race has not been a very good guide for this race. Deserves his spot here but a top five hope for me at best.
13. Romancer - 75. Can bob up at huge odds every now and then but it would be a huge shock to me if he ran top six here.
14. Mr.Brightside - 74. Up and comer but  his form does lack depth. Might win, but for me he is way way under the odds. 
15. King Magnus - 70. Not good enough to win here.
16. Flash Aah - 65. Good bread and butter horse, but not a winning hope here, in fact he would have been a better hope on Tuesday in the listed 1800m event.

Ratings.

1. No.3 Superstorm - 100
2. No.2 Cascadian - 100
3. No.6 Aramayo - 88
4. No.8 Lunar Fox - 86
5. No.10 Quantum Mechanic - 86
6. No.4 Riodini - 84
Add ins for any scratchings are No.7 & No.11.
Recommended Bets: $10 win No.3 Superstorm
                               $20 win No.6 Aramayo
                               $5 each way No.8 Lunar Fox
                               $5 each way No.10 Quantum Mechanic
Precedent: No.10 Quantum mechanic

Summary: As usual with handicaps this is a intriguing race. I have narrowed it down to five genuine winning hopes. Cascadian is a genuine group 1 handicapper and despite the weight he can win. Superstorm was very good last start and he is finally back to Flemington which should be even better. Aramayo is showing high class ability with his last three runs and he is the one to beat. Now onto the two best longshots for the day. Lunar Fox looks very very very well placed here. 1600m, Flemington, fourth up and drawn to get a lovely run, He has the jockey of the season so far in Brett Prebble and the drier the track the better. I am expecting him to get out to $51.00+ and he is a definite winning hope. The other longer priced one who can run well is Quantum Mechanic. Her Toorak run was very good after being held up at the top of the straight. Form at the track and form at the distance is just about flawless and I can see her getting a run where she does absolutely no work until Newitt wants her to start her finish. Riodini, Icebath and Chaillot are top four hopes.

Punters Club Investments.

$  60 win @$14.50 No.2 Cascadian
$100 win @$14.50 No.3 Superstorm
$100 win @$10.50 No.6 Aramayo
$40 win + $100 place @$23.00 + $4.80 No.10 Quantum Mechanic
$30 win + $  70 place @$51.00 + $8.00

God luck to all investors!   
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Okay we are up to Melbourne Cup day and lets see what we have ratings wise.

Te Rapa

Balmerino Stakes

1. No.6 - 78
2. No.8 - 76
3. No.1 - 75
4. No.3 - 73
5. No.4 - 71
6. No.5 - 70
Add ins for any scratchings are No.2 & No.7
Recommended Bets: $50 win No.6 Sweet Clementine
Precedent: No precedent applicable here.

Ascot

Burgess Queen Stakes

1. No.10 - 77
2. No.  6 - 75
3. No.  3 - 74
4. No.  5 - 72
5. No.11 - 71
6. No.12 - 71
Add ins for any scratchings are No.2 & No.4
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.10 Treasured Star
                              $10 each way No.11 Real Danger
Precedent: No.2 Liwa

Flemington

Maribyrnong Stakes

1. No.2 - 73
2. No.1 - 73
3. No.10-72
4. No.9 - 71
5. No.11-70
6. No.3 - 68
Add ins for any scratchings are No.4 & No.8
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.2 Lascars
                             $10 win No.10 Water Bomber
                             $10 win No.11 Wilbury
Precedent: No.2 Lascars

2800m Benchmark (this is not a stakes race but the form is well exposed, so the form can be trusted)

1. No.10 - 75
2. No.  4 - 75
3. No.  3 - 73
4. No.  8 - 72
5. No.  7 - 69
6. No.  2 - 68
Add ins for any scratchings are No.6 & No.11.
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.4 Savvy Valentino
                              $10 each way No.3 Skymax
Precedent: No.2 Long Arm

Melbourne Cup Day Plate (why have they moved this race, fiddlesticks, can't anyone just leave things that work alone).

1. No.6 - 80
2. No.5 - 78
3. No.1 - 77
4. No.7 - 74
5. No.3 - 73
6. No.4 - 71
Add ins for any scratchings are No.2 & No.8
Recommended Bet: $50 win No.5 Pappalino
Precedent: No.3 Milton Park

HKJC Stakes

1. No.8 - 84
2. No.2 - 79
3. No.11-77
4. No.5 - 76
5. No.7 - 74
6. No.10 - 72
Add ins for any scratchings are No.4 & No.6
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.8 Best Stone
                              $10 each way No.7 Excelida
Precedent: No.11 Promise Of Success

Tab trophy Stakes

1. No.6 - 79
2. No.5 - 77
3. No.4 - 76
4. No.14-73
5. No. 8 - 71
6. No. 7 - 70
Add ins for any scratchings are No.2 & No.11
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.6 Spirit Of Gaylard
                              $20 win No.4 Zoumon
Precedent: No.4 Zoumon

MSS Security Sprint

1. No.4 - 82
2. No.5 - 80
3. No.14-78
4. No.6 - 76
5. No.10-75
6. No.7 - 73
Add ins for any scratchings are No.15 & No.8
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.4 Prime Candidate
                              $10 win No.14 Quantico
                               $5 each way No.7 Sirius Suspect
Precedent: No.5 Express Pass 

1. No.    
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Alright before we get to the big one lets see how our derby day Punters Club investments went. 

Balance: -$684.00. 

So lets see if we can continue the great start to the week!

Melbourne Cup.

1. Twilight Payment - 82. If this was a normal cup field then I would have him as no chance of winning just a top four hope. However there are two things that have him as a hope to overcome history. First he has drawn a beautiful gate and he should get a run similar to last year during the race. Second he goes up in weight, but he meets a field which to my ratings is not as good as last years field class wise. I think he is a definite top four hope.
2. Incentivise - 82. Top quality win in the Caulfield Cup, but two reasons he needs to have improved on that run. First he meets a better quality field with horses like Twilight Payment, Verry Elleegant, Spanish Mission, Grand Promenade, Tralee Rose, Floating Artist and others. And second he is up 1.5 kgs. That extra weight puts him into the very difficult category to win this race. He is a class runner and again like Twilight Payment I can see him running well, but I think there are two or three who can beat him home.
3. Spanish Mission - 85. Very consistent stayer. While Stradivarius has not been quite at his best level this past season, to still run him to a quarter of a length at set weights is quality form. His only unplaced run this year was on that horrible Meydan track so forget that. Drawn to sit where ever Williams wants, he is also in that weight group where he can run well but not win. Has been passed fit to run and he has to be at least a place hope.
4. Verry Elleegant - 81. She is racing well, but is she at her best? Good run behind better weighted males (that WFA scale needs to be changed), but the last season VE would have went straight past them. The weight is a huge hurdle, not sure she gets a good run from the barrier and she will need a JMac special to even finish top four.
5. Explosive Jack - 75. For me he needs a wet track to even get close. I hate the weight scale for 4yo's in this race and he is the worst weighted 4yo in the race this year so not for me. He does have a genius training combo and his jockey is smoking hot at the moment but he is a top six hope at best for me.       
6. The Chosen One - 79. It seems as he gets older he does like the track to be das dry as possible. His run at Caulfield was awful but he can put a bad one in before rebounding. Good run in last years race and if we get a quickly run race again he can run on for a top five finish again.
7. Delphi - 79. I know we wanted him to sit forward at Caulfield, but Oliver totally misjudged the speed in that race. he has drawn the barrier to again roll forward (not charge forward), and if he can settle he has shown he has the ability to run well at the longer trip. Again, not sure he can win but can run well.
8. Ocean Billy - 76. His form overall lacks depth, however he did run better than his odds at Caulfield. I do not think he can win, but out to 3200m, and on a drier track, I could see him finishing twelfth or better.
9. Selino - 82. Alright his form is inconsistent at best, but at the price he is at I can have an each way bet on him, and here is why. First he wants the track as dry as we can get it. Second he is out to 3200m and that suits him. Third his ratings show me he is a big track horse. His run two back was the best behind Grand Promenade and he carries 53.5 kgs which is a nice weight drop from the Bart Cummings (a race where the top four placings do have a good record in this race the last ten years). Also if you look at his 2020 form in Europe, he has form around Spanish Mission which is comparable to the second favorites and we are getting $67.00. I do not think the barrier will hinder his hopes because he will roll forward and even if he is three deep, if he has cover he will keep going late. Best longshot in the race!
10. Johnny Get Angry - 70. On his form you just say no. However he does not get warm until he gets to 2000m. Poorly weighted, bad barrier and out of form all tells me he will finish in back half of the field, but he has been good to me punting wise and I personally will have something each way at $161.00.
11. Knights Order - 69. Poor on Saturday and while me might lead past the post the first time, he will be closer to last than first the second time.
12. Persan - 84. Showing as good signs as last year and he ran a cracking 5th. He has had a purposely built prep for this and his run at Caulfield shows he is right on track. I think he is well weighted only up 2 kgs from last year and he has drawn to get a lovely run. Not sure he can win but he is a contender!
13. Carif - 77. The ratings do not have hi a winning hope and fair enough, however there are three main reasons I think he can finish top eight. First the distance. Two starts for a huge win against a horse who was at one time on the third line of betting for this race and a second behind Knights Order in a Brisbane Cup. The second point is the weight. Both those 3200m runs he had to carry 59 kilos. Down to 52.5kgs here and that makes him a top half finisher and third he needs a track as dry as he can get it to be a winning hope. I have already taken him each way @ $201.00, so I do not have to back him but I will add him as a flukers chance to the exotics.
14. Master Of Wine - 74. Good effort in the Bart Cummings but that was an anomaly. Needs it was wet as possible to have any hope and even then for my ratings he is just a top ten hope.
15. Pondus - 79. Is going okay, but he will use the gate and be the leader with last years winner. Can keep going for a top five finish.
16. Grand Promenade - 82. Is using the Persan prep from last year and he looks well placed here. Good value @ $20.00 and he can win!
17. Miami Bound - 75. Going alright but needs a heavy 10 to be a winning hope here. Not for me.
18. Port Guillaume - 70. Would be a huge upset if he won and I just can not see any reason he can run well.
19. She's Ideel - 77. I think on talent she can run well, but the big hurdle for her, seems to be the distance. I thought she had every hope in the Sydney Cup this year but I just can not see her turning the tables on the winner of that race. If she can run the distance Tuesday she could run top four.
20. Future Score - 70. Form is improving but looks more a Sandown Cup horse to me.
21. Tralee Rose - 81. She is racing in good form but like She's Ideel her 3200m run earlier this year, quells my enthusiasm. On her current form she can win, but she needs to have everything go right. She has drawn to do no work early and if she does run the distance she can go close.
22. Floating Artist - 83. All his form this prep is good. His last run was a sad race to view and he can get a lovely run here. Looks to be hitting form at the right time and he is in the right stable to be given every hope. This is a huge ride for Teo Nugent and I hope the youngster does himself proud, Definite chance!
23. Great House - 80. On face value I thought the win on Saturday was just a win, however having done the form this morning and looking closer, it was an excellent lead in run for this race. His runs in the Newcastle Cup, a win, Metrop and Caulfield Cup (where he was in inferior ground) were sound and then he carried 57.5kgs to win in a fairly fast time. That was for me a career best run, because before that his better ratings were on soft tracks. No reference for him backing up within three days but he has to be a chance off Saturdays win, especially dropping 7.5 kgs.
24. Sir Lucan - 78. No surprise to see him run well, but I have to let him run without me. Is used to carrying 57kgs or more so he is well suited in that respect. Drawn poorly, the 3200m has to be a big question mark, and I can not see him bettering his brother Sir Dragonet last year and he finished sixth. 

Ratings.

1. No.3 Spanish Mission - 85
2. No.12 Persan - 84
3. No.22 Floating Artist - 83
4. No.9 Selino - 82
5. No.16 Grand Promenade - 82
6. No.1 Twilight Payment - 81
Add ins for any scratchings are No.2 Incentivise & No.4 Verry Elleegant.
Recommended Bet: $10 win No.3 Spanish Mission
                             $10 win No.22 Floating Artist
                             $10 each way No.9 Selino
                              $5 each way No.13 Carif
Precedent: No.12 Persan

Summary: This is a very good betting race! Obviously if you think Incentivise is a good bet then it is simple, but if not, then it is wide open. We will go down the list with the winning hopes. No.1 twilight Payment is trying to deny history in three ways. First he is going to try and lead all the way again, second he is trying to become the highest weight carrier since Makybe Diva and third he is trying to become only the second back to back winner in over 45 years. Despite that I think he can run well and give a good defense of his title. No.2 Incentivise is a high class, topline galloper who is at the height of his powers, but that extra 1.5kgs from Caulfield for me has him as a place hope and not a winning chance. No.3 Spanish Mission is coming in with good form and he is a hope, but he does have his share of weight. No.4 Verry Elleegant ran well last year, but is she going as good coming into this race, not sure. The extra 1.5kgs from last year has her a place hope at best for me. No.6 The Chosen One comes in with form good enough to be a contender, No.7 Delphi can run better here if Damien judges the speed better than he did at Caulfield. No.9 Selino is a 3200m, dry track, big track stayer and he is the best longshot in the race, No.12 Persan comes in in just as good form as last year and he looks a major player, No.15 Pondus is not hopeless and I can see him being a firmer on race day, No.16 Grand Promenade has the Persan prep coming in and he can be there when the post arrives, No.21 Tralee Rose is coming in in good form, but that Adelaide Cup run is sticking in my mind. If she can run the 3200m she can go close, No.22 Floating Artist comes here off an unlucky run at MV, but he can get a lovely run here and I wish Teo Nugent all the best because this ride could change his life and No.23 Great House is in quality form and his effort on Saturday sees him come here with a good chance, if he can back up three days later. The other runners for me are not a place hope, but I am a sucker for No.13 Carif and have backed him each way @ $201.00. Good luck to all investors and their investments.

Punters Club Investments.

$100 win @ $11.25 No.3 Spanish Mission
$  50 win @ $26.00 No.16 Grand Promenade
$  70 win @ $22.00 No.22 Floating Artist
$  30 win @ $41.00 No.23 Great House
$  20 win + $30 Place @ $151.00 + $21.00 No.9 Selino
$  20 win + $30 place @ $  71.00 + $11.00 No.12 Persan
$  10 win + $30 place @ $  61.00 + $10.00 No.7 Delphi
$  10 win + $30 place @ $  61.00 + $11.00 No.15 Pondus
$  30 win @ $22.00 No.21 Tralee Rose
$  40 win @ $14.00 No.1 Twilight Payment

Good luck to all investors and all of us at Turfzone Australia wishes everyone a happy and successful Cup day.

I have started doing a you tube podcast preview of the main races and if you are looking for something to put you asleep in Monday night the podcast can be heard from 8pm Monday evening.  
 

                         
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Alright we had a good cup day, but no luck in the big one, but I would like to say congrats to the connections of two high class top line horses who ran first and second Clap

Hawkesbury

Ladies Day Vase.

1. No.8 - 75
2. No.1 - 73
3. No.4 - 73
4. No.7 - 71
5. No.3 - 71
6. No.5 - 69
Add ins for any scratchings are No.9 & No.6
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.4 Looks Like Elvis
                             $10 each way No.7 Blue Soldier
Precedent: No.1 Quackerjack

Flemington

Ottawa Stakes

1. No.1 - 77
2. No.2 - 75
3. No.17 -72
4. No.15 -71
5. No.10- 70
6. No.12- 70
Add ins for any scratchings are No.13 & No.4
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.17 Satin Love
                              $10 each way No.11 Everything Nice
Precedent: No.17 Satin Love

Desirable Stakes

1. No.2 - 82
2. No.1 - 80
3. No.3 - 79
4. No.9 - 77
5. No.16-75
6. No.12-74
Add ins for any scratchings are No.10 & No.11
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.2 New York Baby
                               $10 each way No.12 Lavish Girl
Precedent: No.1 Vianello

Mumm Century Stakes

1. No.8 - 82
2. No.6 - 79
3. No.10-77
4. No.11-76
5. No.15-74
6. No.2 - 74
Add ins for any scratchings are No.3 & No.12
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.10 Written Beauty
                              $10 each way No.11 Varda
Precedent: No.3 Prezado

Red Roses Stakes

1. No.3 - 76
2. No.7 - 75
3. No.11-74
4. No.16-72
5. No.6 - 70
6. No.5 - 70
Add ins for any scratchings are No.2 & No.10
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.7 Robodira
                              $10 each way No.16 Viviane
Precedent: No.11 A Very Fine Red 
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Alright after Tuesday with three races to go we are now at -$1184.00.

VRC Oaks.

1. Elusive Express - 78. Trying the Hitotsu prep straight from the 1600m of the 1000 Guineas to the 2500m VRC Oaks. Can win but she will need to be better here than she was at Caulfield.
2. Willowy - 82. Great win on Saturday and on that run the 2500m should suit. The one to beat.
3. Daisies - 82. Just beaten by one who had the last shot late, last start. I think she is the danger.
4. Biscayne Bay - 76. She might be the one coming good at the right time. She needs to improve to beat Daisies home, but maybe the 2500m will suit her better than others. Drawn to get a cosy run and can place.
5. Gonnadancealot - 65. She might be one of the triple figure fillies who can improve at 2500m and finish fourth and fifth but not for me.
6. Douceur - 80. I thought she was good on Saturday when she stayed on well just behind the quinella. The breeding says she will eat the 2500m, and if Mick Dee can get her a good run in the race, she can at least place.
7. Glint Of Hope - 77. Still a maiden, but her form is good enough to win. Drawn to sit right behind the speed and bred on similar lines to the derby winner which looks good enough for the classic distance. At least a place hope.
8. Tiz My Baby - 72. Not sure she is going well enough to win here. Fourth at best for her.
9. Blackcomb - 70. Poor run at MV, and her form before that lacks substance. Fourth at best as well.
10. Fabiola - 65. Good luck to the connections, but no luck here.
11. Morrissette - 76. She might lack the class of a few but I am thinking she will love the 2500m. I think she has had a proper prep for this race and I can see her improving enough over the distance to grab a place.

Ratings.

1. No.3 Daisies - 82
2. No.2 Willowy - 82
3. No.6 Douceur - 80
4. No.1 Elusive Express - 78
5. No.7 Glint Of Hope - 77
6. No.11 Morrissette - 76
Add ins for any scratchings are No.4 Biscayne Bay & No.8 Tiz My Baby
Recommended Bet: $10 win No.3 Daisies
                             $10 win No.7 Glint Of Hope
                             $5 win + $10 place No.6 Douceur
                             $5 win + $10 place No.11 Morrissette
Precedent: No.2 Daisies

Summary: I actually think there are only three winning hopes here. No.3 Daisies has the proper 2000m form coming in so she has to be my top rater. No.2 Willowy was very good last Saturday and she can win. No.6 Douceur is the overs as her run last Saturday was every bit as good as the quinella. No.7 Glint Of Hope needs to improve, but she can, while No.11 Morrissette needs to improve to win but she can absolutely win. No.4 Biscayne Bay is improving at the right time, loves Flemington and the 2500m looks like it will suit. I am taking on Elusive Express like I did with Hitotsu but obviously she can win.

Punters Club Investments

$140 win @ $  6.00 No.3 Daisies
$  60 win @ $14.00 No.7 Glint Of Hope
$  40 win + $50 place @ $26.00 + $4.80 No.11 Morrissette
$  40 win + $60 place @ $22.00 + $4.80 No.6 Douceur
$110 win @ $5.00 No.2 Willowy

Good luck to all investors for tomorrow!           

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Not a bad day yesterday, thanks to Blue Soldier at Hawkesbury.

Okay lets see where the final day of Cup week sees our ratings. 

Ascot

Fairetha Stakes

1. No.3 - 80
2. No.8 - 77
3. No.4 - 76
4. No.7 - 74
5. No.9 - 74
6. No.10- 74
Add ins for any scratchings are No.1 & No.2
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.3 Its'arayday
                              $20 win No.8 Devoted
Precedent: No.9 Pale Rider

Lee Steere Stakes

1. No.1 - 84
2. No.6 - 80
3. No.10-79
4. No.4 - 79
5. No.3 - 77
6. No.2 - 75
Add ins for any scratchings are No.5 & No.9
Recommended Bet: $50 win No.1 Regal Power
Precedent: No.2 Valour Road

Riccarton Park

Metropolitan Trophy

1. No.4 - 82
2. No.5 - 80
3. No.1 - 78
4. No.6 - 77
5. No.7 - 75
6. No.3 - 75
Add ins for any scratchings are No.2 & No.13
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.5 Swords Drawn
                               $20 win No.4 Southern Ocean
Precedent: No.1 Mr Intelligence

Rosehill

Hot Danish Stakes

1. No.6 - 84
2. No.1 - 83
3. No.5 - 79
4. No.3 - 77
5. No.4 - 75
6. No.9 - 73
Add ins for any scratchings are No.7 & No.8
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.1 Rocha Clock (that track record worries me but she is the class here)
                              $20 win No.6 Tricky Girl
Precedent: There is no precedent for this race

Flemington

Queen Elizabeth Stakes

1. No.2 - 85
2. No.3 - 81
3. No.4 - 80
4. No.5 - 80
5. No.1 - 78
6. No.6 - 68
Recommended Bet: $50 win No.2 Sound
Precedent: No.3 Dr.Drill

Springtime Stakes

1. No.9 - 82
2. No.7 - 80
3. No.3 - 78
4. No.5 - 77
5. No.13-75
6. No.1 - 74
Add ins for any scratchings are No.12 & No.2
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.9 Jimmy The Bear
                              $10 each way No.5 Daily Bugle
Precedent: No.9 Jimmy The Bear

Matriarch Stakes 

1. No.1 - 84
2. No.2 - 83
3. No.4 - 80
4. No.8 - 78
5. No.10 - 75
6. No.7 - 74
Add ins for any scratchings are No.12 & No.3
Recommended Bet: $10 win + $20 place No.4 Princess Jenni  
                              $20 win No.2 Only Words
Precedent: No.8 Zayydani

Chatham Stakes

1. No.5 - 82
2. No.11-80
3. No.13-78
4. No.14-77
5. No.4 - 75
6. No.1 - 75
Add ins for any scratchings are No.2 & No.3
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.5 Justacanta
                              $20 win No.11 Chaillot
Precedent: No.6 Age Of Chivalry


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Okay before we get to our final group 1's for the spring here is where our balance is -$846.00.

VRC Sprint

1. Nature Strip -100. Should win this by five if he is at his best!
2. Streets Of Avalon - 76. Ran well for us in the Manikato but his record down the straight is not good. Top four at best.
3. Splintex - 80. Good win two back and he ran okay at his latest. He is not a genuine group 1 horse, but this is not a group 1 field. Place hope.
4. Samizdat - 69. Not a hope here.
5. September Run - 72. The proof I can show to say she is not at her best, is how Swat's that beat her home last start. Every other time she ahs met Swats That she has had her measure. Unless it is wet I can not have her here.
6. Bella Nipotina - 80. Going well but she is a place hope at best.
7. Swats That - 85. Carried a big weight last week and ran well behind a mare who would be the second favorite here. She seems to be hitting her fitness peak coming into this and she is the overs!
8. Shaquero - 77. Going okay but can not see him beating his fellow 3yo, so more a top four hope for me.
9. Ranch Hand - 84. Good behind a smart galloper last week. Top class win fresh down the straight however I am concerned about his 1200m form and his ability to back up within 7 days. On form he is a place hope.

Ratings.

1. No.1 Nature Strip - 100
2. No.7 Swat's That  -   85
3. No.9 Ranch Hand  -   84
4. No.3 Splintex        -   80
5. No.6 Bella Nipotina -  80
6. No.8 Shaquero      -   78
Add ins for any scratchings are No.2 & No.5
Recommended Bet: $50 Place No.7 Swat's That
Precedent: No.1 Nature Strip

Summary: Not much to say here. If he is only 80% right Nature Strip should win this by five lengths. I think No.3 Splintex, No.7 Swat's That and No.9 Ranch Hand are the place hopes.

Punters Club Investments

$200 Same Race Multi No.3 Splintex Top Four + No.7 Swats That Top Four
$100 Same Race Multi No.3 Splintex Top Four + No.9 Ranch Hand Top Four
$200 Same Race Multi No.7 Swats That Top Four + No.9 Ranch Hand Top Four     
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Mackinnon Stakes.

1. Homesman - 80. Forget his Caulfield Cup run. Back to 2000m and loves Flemington. He can run well, but for me there are better chances.
2. Cascadian - 80. On his form he can run well, but he is a handicapper and he meets some genuine group 1 WFA horses here. Will give his all as usual but can not win!
3. Superstorm - 81. I am not sure why people are saying he can not run 2000m. I think his Turnbull run last says differently, but for me the WFA is his trouble. If Homesman rolls along and makes it a quickly run race he could flash home but a top four chance at best for me. If he won it would not surprise.
4. Zaaki - 85. I am not surprised at the detractors here, but on form he is the top rater. Has had a setback, his Melbourne form has not been as good as his form in Sydney and Brisbane so a little short for me but obviously he can win.
5. Keiai Nautique - 77. I think he is a very nice horse, but for me he needs a good spell and his second Australian prep in the autumn is where he can win a WFA race. 
6. Dalasan - 80. Cox Plate run was poor, but he needs it dry, and he will improve back to Flemington. I think he can run better than his price and finish top four.
7. Mo'unga - 84. He had every hope in the Cox Plate, but he is another who should improve here at Flemington (just like Arcadia Queen did last year). For me he is the one to beat.
8. Private Eye - 80. Great win in the Epsom, and he just could not win the way the race was run. This looks a good race to see if 2000m is ideal, and if he runs the 2000m he can run top four.
9. Collette - 84. Won last week, and she has the ability to run well here. Definite winning hope.
10. Hungry Heart - 82. I think she has more improvement than Collette from last week, but she can not go back to last here, and win. I am hoping over the extra 400m she will be able to sit a little closer. On her form this prep she is a huge chance here.

Ratings.

1. No.4 Zaaki - 85
2. No.7 Mo'unga - 84
3. No.9 Collette - 84
4. No.10 Hungry Heart - 82
5. No.3 Superstorm - 81
6. No.6 Dalasan - 80
Add ins for any scratchings are No.1 & No.8
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.7 Mo'unga
                              $10 win No.10 Hungry Heart
                              $5 each way No.6 Dalasan
Precedent: No.7 Mo'unga

Summary: This is a good competitive field. I thought Mo'unga had his chance at MV, but his two runs at Flemington tell me he can improve back here, the one to beat for me. Out of last weeks racing I like Hungry Heart better. She moves up to 2000m, looked good here last week and she can sit closer with not much speed and over the 2000m. Zaaki is a class galloper but he has had a setback and his Melbourne form before that was not his best anyway so he can run without me. Collette also has the class to win but she will need to have improvement from last week, while I can see Dalasan improving back to Flemington. Superstorm will run a strong 2000m but it is the WFA at the top level which concerns me while Private Eye is an improver and this is his first go at 2000m and he can run well if he can run a strong 2000m. Good betting race!

Punters Club Investments

$130 win @ $11.25 No.7 Mo'unga
$130 win @ $13.50 No.10 Hungry Heart
$120 win @ $  6.50 No.9 Collette
$  20 win + $50 place @ $61.00 + $9.00 No.6 Dalasan
$  50 win @ $15.50 No.3 Superstorm     
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N.Z 2000 Guineas 

1. Mana Nui - 79. Poor run last start. Not sure what happened but maybe he is looking for the 1600m. Top four hope.
2. Wakari - 80. Consistent and has not finished worse than 2nd. Place hope.
3. I Wish I Win - 82. Has not won this prep but I feel he has been looking for the longer distances. Form is good enough coming in and for me he is a genuine winning hope.
4. Meritable - 81. Looks like the 1600m will suit. Might be the one over the odds.
5. Noverre - 82. Great win last start. The problem for him here is that he will be getting back and the $2.80 is unders for me but he can win.
6. Dark Destroyer - 79. Good run last start and looks to get a lovely run here. 
7. Field Of Gold - 81. Good run last start and he can go close here. The danger.
8. Mackenzie Lad - 75. Went well last start but needs to improve. 
9. Caesar - 72. To me he looks a 2000m+ horse so no chance here.
10. Fireglow - 73. Not a winning hope off his last run.

Ratings
1. No.5 Noverre - 82
2. No.3 I Wish I Win - 82
3. No.7 Field Of Gold - 81
4. No.4 Meritable - 81
5. No.2 Wakari - 80
6. No.6 Dark Destroyer - 79
Add ins for any scratchings are No.1 & No.8
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.7 Field Of Gold
                              $20 win No.3 I Wish I Win
Precedent: No.6 Dark Destroyer
        
Please note that this race is not being invested in by the Punters Club.

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Okay before we get into this weeks ratings with no more group 1's for the spring the Punters Club finished -$1846.00.  

Alright now on to the ratings for this weekend.

Tauranga 

Tauranga Stakes.

1. No.7 - 83
2. No.3 - 79
3. No.6 - 77
4. No.2 - 76
5. No.1 - 75
6. No.9 - 74
Add ins for any scratchings are No.5 & No.8
Recommended Bet: $50 win No.7 Frontman
Precedent: No.2 Vernanme

Riccarton Park

Welcome Stakes

1. No.3 - 73
2. No.4 - 70
3. No.1 - 69
4. No.5 - 65
5. No.2 - 65
Recommended Bet: No bet.

New Zealand Cup

1. No.5 - 80
2. No.12-78
3. No.1 - 77
4. No.3 - 76
5. No.2 - 75
6. No.18-74
Add ins for any scratchings are No.7 & No.15.
Recommended Bet: $50 win No.5 Beaudz Well
Precedent: No.12 Hit The Road Jack

NZ 1000 Guineas

1. No.2 - 80
2. No.1 - 79
3. No.3 - 79
4. No.8 - 77
5. No.7 - 76
6. No.16-75
Add in for any scratchings are No.12 & No.5.
Recommended Bet: $50 place No.5 Belle En Rouge
Precedent: No.1 Imperatiz
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Doomben

Keith Noud Quality

1. No.2 - 82
2. No.12-80
3. No.4 - 78
4. No.1 - 75
5. No.3 - 75
6. No.6 - 75
Add ins for any scratchings are No.8 & No.10
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.2 The Harrovian
                              $20 win No.3 Baller
Precedent: No.3 Baller

Cranbourne

Cranbourne Cup

1. No.5 - 85
2. No.10-81
3. No.4 - 79
4. No.2 - 77
5. No.6 - 76
6. No.12-75
Add ins for any scratchings are No.13 & No.11
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.4 Aramayo
                              $10 each way No.5 Lunar Fox
Precedent: This is the first time that this race has been run at this distance on this day so no precedent available.

Newcastle

The Beauford (not a listed race but the form is exposed)

1. No.3 - 78
2. No.1 - 77
3. No.2 - 75
4. No.6 - 73
5. No.7 - 71
6. No.4 - 70
Add ins for any scratchings are No.8 & No.10
Recommended Bet: $50 win No.3 Kiss The Bride
Precedent: No.6 Torrens

Spring Stakes

1. No.2 - 77
2. No.4 - 75
3. No.1 - 74
4. No.7 - 72
5. No.10-72
6. No.8 - 70
Add ins for any scratchings are No.6 & No.5
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.2 Lease
                              $20 win No.1 Dufresne.
Precedent: No.1 Dufresne

The Hunter

1. No.2 - 82
2. No.1 - 80
3. No.11-78
4. No.16-75
5. No.4 - 74
6. No.6 - 73
Add ins for any scratchings are No.3 & No.7
Recommended Bet: $30 win No.2 Top Ranked
                              $10 each way No.6 Signore Fox
Precedent: No.1 Lost And Running.

Good luck to all investors! 
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