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Verry Elleegant - New Peak Timeform Rating |
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Jamal 
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 Topic: Verry Elleegant - New Peak Timeform RatingPosted: 03 Nov 2021 at 2:36pm |
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I thought a separate thread should be created goven what we saw in the Melbourne Cup - an outstanding performance.  Reference: https://www.racingandsports.com/news/timeform/timeform-news/2021-10-25/timeform-recap-2021-cox-plate/562954 Verry Elleegant - a Timeform rating of 127 for winning the Melbourne Cup. This a new peak career rating for her. See full article link for more info, but below are some important stats (which is in article). To compare the figures for the top Melbourne Cup ratings in the modern era... Modern Melbourne Cup winners by Timeform rating: 2005 - Makybe Diva: 129 1996 - Saintly: 128 2014 - Protectionist: 128 1997 - Might And Power: 128 2021 - Verry Elleegant: 127 2010 - Americain: 126 Verry Elleegant is one of two mares in that 'Big Six' of mares in Australian racing. That 129 rating famously saw a champion become a legend. This time a verry good mare became a champion, one of several champion mares that we have been lucky enough to have seen this century. Yep, another list: Black Caviar: 136 Winx: 134 Sunline: 129 Atlantic Jewel: 128 More Joyous: 128 Verry Elleegant: 127 Finally, in terms of Timeform ratings, this is where Verry Elleegant sits in the world: Gamine: 128 Verry Elleegant: 127 Tarnawa: 125 Gran Alegria: 125 |
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Tlazolteotl
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Posted: 03 Nov 2021 at 2:45pm |
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What's the rationale for Saintly's rating being so high?
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Jamal
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Posted: 03 Nov 2021 at 2:55pm |
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Incentivise achieved a Timeform rating of 121 for running second in the Melbourne Cup:
His past 7 starts: 105 (Benchmark80 - 1st: 5th June) - 1810m 107 (Benchmark78 - 1st: 19th June) - 2500m 117 (G3 Tatts Cup - 1st: 26th June) - 2400m 122 (G1 Makybe Diva Stakes - 1st: 11th September) - 1600m 124 (G1 Turnbull Stakes - 1st: 2nd October) - 2000m 129 (G1 Caulfield Cup - 1st: 16th October) - 2400m 121 (G1 Melbourne Cup - 2nd - 3rd November) - 3200m
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Jamal
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Posted: 03 Nov 2021 at 2:59pm |
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Not sure. From memory he won quite well bit not sure of rationale.
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Shawy38
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Posted: 03 Nov 2021 at 3:01pm |
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Does this really need another thread? Why not just add it to the existing one?
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Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing
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kavg
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Posted: 03 Nov 2021 at 3:06pm |
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At risk of repeating myself like Jamal, I am sick of these ratings.
How do they know that Incentivise didn't run to his 129 from CC? Did they over-rate the CC? Who knows? I'm guessing the used a Spanish Mission rating and decided that he ran exactly how he ran in Europe and gave him the same rating. Out of interest I'd like to know what rating he was given when beaten a head by Stradivarius and see if it is the same. Then see if the ratings of Incentivise and VE follow suit. |
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Prejudice is an emotional attachment to ignorance.
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kavg
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Posted: 03 Nov 2021 at 3:08pm |
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Trust them to rate a sprinter/miler from dirt tracks in USA on who knows how many drugs as 1 point better than VE MC win.
Given Tarnawa's rating and where she finished in Arc it is clear to see that VE would have won this years Arc if you believe in these ratings.
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Prejudice is an emotional attachment to ignorance.
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Jamal
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Posted: 03 Nov 2021 at 3:29pm |
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Each country has their Timeform ratings team and they do their Timeform ratings. You don't have countries doing other countries Timeform ratings
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Jamal
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Posted: 03 Nov 2021 at 3:30pm |
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I believe so yep
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Pardon_My_Dust
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Posted: 03 Nov 2021 at 3:34pm |
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He beat Count Chivas, Skybeau and Nothin Leica Dane. No superstars there but the Dane did run second to Doriemus the previous year.
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kavg
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Posted: 03 Nov 2021 at 4:56pm |
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Can somebody tell me what Stradivarius rated in his close defeat by Stradivarius and his MC run?
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Prejudice is an emotional attachment to ignorance.
DiEM25 for the world. |
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WarriSymbol
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Posted: 03 Nov 2021 at 4:57pm |
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Carioca
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Posted: 03 Nov 2021 at 5:03pm |
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Well , I'll agree with that Warrisymbol.
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djebel
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Posted: 03 Nov 2021 at 5:14pm |
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113. |
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reductio ad absurdum
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djebel
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Posted: 03 Nov 2021 at 5:15pm |
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Seems reasonable to me. It only equates to about 1.5 lengths. |
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reductio ad absurdum
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Afros
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Posted: 03 Nov 2021 at 5:38pm |
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Surely there must be some criteria around weight carried, time, track condition, quality of opposition, margin of victory and even the barrier? Otherwise it really is just someone's opinion. If it were legitimate it should be done purely objectively, not subjectively. As soon as personal opinion can influence the rating it becomes just another opinion.
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TJMitchell
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Posted: 03 Nov 2021 at 6:09pm |
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If it were legitimate you'd see more Japanese horses near the top
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Time is a flat circle
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Jamal
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Posted: 03 Nov 2021 at 6:24pm |
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Afros - you're spot on. There is a formula/methodology behind how the figure rating is achieved. I dont know what the formula is though. I have asked but they don't tell me.
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Jamal
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Posted: 03 Nov 2021 at 6:29pm |
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In terms of Timeform ratings - Spanish Mission ran to 119 when he was just beaten by Stradivarius in the G2 Lonsdale Cup. For that same race the winner Stradivarius ran to a Timeform rating of 119 as well. Cheers Jamal.
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Afros
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Posted: 03 Nov 2021 at 6:35pm |
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Surely if they want their ratings to be taken as definitive it should be relatively simple to figure out the formula? I suspect they build some subjectivity in there.
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Jamal
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Posted: 03 Nov 2021 at 6:48pm |
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Afros - I think all types of ratings, the handicappers who use them they don't disclose the methodology to the public.
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Shawy38
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Posted: 03 Nov 2021 at 6:52pm |
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Probably because they just make it up as they go
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Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing
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kavg
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Posted: 03 Nov 2021 at 8:05pm |
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It is just lazy ratings.
It is obvious that they based VE winning MC rating on the rating of Spanish mission in his defeat by Stradivarius. If they both rated 119, then allowing 2 points per length then the margin beaten of SM to VE roughly gives you the rating of VE. And they probably deducted a point or two because it was in Australia. Does anyone have the rating of SM in the MC?
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Prejudice is an emotional attachment to ignorance.
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Nobody
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Posted: 03 Nov 2021 at 8:07pm |
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Timeform ratings generally are biased up shcnitts creek. I pay no attention to them or give them credence. In Australia, with all respect to GC, he has one too many when creating his biased algorithms.
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VOYAGER
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Posted: 03 Nov 2021 at 8:13pm |
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I believe PMD that Oscar Schindler ran in that Cup and his previous run was a 3rd in that years Arc. I agree that these Timeform ratings are about as helpful and accurate as a bowl full of rocks, but there is no way Saintly's rating is higher than either Might And Powers, Twilight Payments or Verry Ellegant's. If Verry Elleegant was a 129 then Incentivise had to be at least a 125 because that run was seriously better than his Turnbull performance. and it would have gone close to winning against Saintly (I am using the times run as a guide), and he would have gone close to Makybe Diva's third win. Yes the WFA allowance comes into consideration, but it was still a better un than the Turnbull. That is the thing with ratings. If you say a performance is at 124, and then the same horse runs better but does not win and you think oh well he won that 124 but he lost here so we have to give him a lower rating, it makes your ratings look stupid. Horses can run better ratings and not win. It is illogical to think just because a horse gets beaten they rate lower than a good win. Incentivise's Turnbull run was good but he carried 57kgs, ran a slick time, and got beaten by a huge 129 rating, once in a generation, run (judging by Timeform) over a distance which is at the horses limit, so his rating has to at least be as high as his Turnbull rating. But after saying all that, I do not know anyone outside the media, who take notice of Timeform ratings. All the trainers, jockeys, and online racing people I have spoken with do not consider it of any use to what they do.
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Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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djebel
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Posted: 03 Nov 2021 at 8:27pm |
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Why does his rating have to be at least as good as his Turnbull rating. He clearly ran right through the line in the Turnbull. Was he doing that yesterday ?
Edited by djebel - 03 Nov 2021 at 8:28pm |
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reductio ad absurdum
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Afros
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Posted: 03 Nov 2021 at 9:02pm |
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Well considering that at the 800, Person was in front and finished 28.9L back in 20th, Grand Promenade was 3rd and finished 6th beaten 12.6L and Knight's Order was 4th and finished 19th beaten 25.65L, while Incentivise just did his thing and plugged away only passing Person but only allowing the great mare to pass him, he fought on to hold off Spanish Mission and was strong through the line for mine.
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Jamal
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Posted: 03 Nov 2021 at 9:42pm |
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Kav - in regards to Timeform rating for Spanish Mission for 3rd in Melbourne Cup, no figure has been released yet but ill post it on here when I see it.
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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kavg
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Posted: 03 Nov 2021 at 9:44pm |
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If VE wasn't in the race then we'd all be saying how tough and great incentivise is. After doing all the work and being left a sitting shot when Persan tired, he fought all the others off and was still strong at the line.
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Prejudice is an emotional attachment to ignorance.
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VOYAGER
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Posted: 03 Nov 2021 at 9:53pm |
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To long to explain djebel but basically distance + weight + time + class of field (compared to the Turnbull) = improvement from this horse and his rating.
I know Timeform do not compare past runs, they just do ratings for specific runs, but anyone who thinks Incentivise ran worse here than in the Turnbull needs to tell me why. On times his run would have gone close to winning every cup this century (at least on dry tracks to keep things equal) except Twilight Payment and Protectionist. So he needs to at least be rated as high as any of those winners on the ratings. As I stated before, just because a horse loses a race, that does not mean that loss can not be their highest rating effort. I'm Thunderstruck beat Count De Rupee on Saturday, but it was CDR's best rating run of his career, now, but he is a serious horse so the first of many IMO.
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