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Experiment this Saturday, please read. |
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bigal
Champion Joined: 29 Jan 2011 Status: Offline Points: 9802 |
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INTERESTINGLY.....this is the same thing but for ONE of the paid ratings that I subscribe to.
01/01/2017 to 02/03/2019 Race Area Bets Win Plc WOut WRet WPrf RACE W% WPOT ------------------------------------------------------------- Metropolitan 75101236 134225 120978 -13247 65.7 -9.9 only a few % better on s/r and cracks the under 10% loss (just). ALLAN
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bigal
Champion Joined: 29 Jan 2011 Status: Offline Points: 9802 |
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these are how you would have done your investments at Melb last Saturday.
23/02/2019 12:35 Caulfield 1 1 Jaameh PACE 8 6.5 -13 13 VIC 23/02/2019 12:35 Caulfield 1 2 Sikandarabad PACE 1 3.50 2.5 57 VIC 23/02/2019 12:35 Caulfield 1 3 Midterm PACE 3 3.5 35 22 VIC 23/02/2019 12:35 Caulfield 1 4 Call Me Handsome PACE 2 6.0 21 36 VIC 23/02/2019 1:10: Caulfield 2 1 Aramayo PACE 3 2.5 -7 64 VIC 23/02/2019 1:10: Caulfield 2 2 Cossetot PACE 2 3.7 -28 85 VIC 23/02/2019 1:10: Caulfield 2 3 Declares War PACE 5 7.5 -39 96 VIC 23/02/2019 1:10: Caulfield 2 13 Lunar Flare PACE 11 3.5 -61 118 VIC 23/02/2019 1:45: Caulfield 3 1 I Am A Star PACE 6 3.0 -86 143 VIC 23/02/2019 1:45: Caulfield 3 4 Jamaican Rain PACE 1 6.00 5.0 -6 63 VIC 23/02/2019 1:45: Caulfield 3 6 Teleplay PACE 3 10.0 -15 72 VIC 23/02/2019 1:45: Caulfield 3 8 Naantali PACE 2 3.5 -37 94 VIC 23/02/2019 2:20: Caulfield 4 1 Futooh PACE 9 10.0 -46 103 VIC 23/02/2019 2:20: Caulfield 4 2 Angelic Ruler PACE 2 1.6 -84 141 VIC 23/02/2019 2:20: Caulfield 4 3 Qafila PACE 1 6.50 5.5 -2 59 VIC 23/02/2019 2:20: Caulfield 4 5 News Girl PACE 4 5.5 -17 74 VIC 23/02/2019 2:55: Caulfield 5 1 Zousain PACE 2 0.4 -88 145 VIC 23/02/2019 2:55: Caulfield 5 5 Poised To Strike PACE 5 6.5 -101 158 VIC 23/02/2019 2:55: Caulfield 5 6 Yulong January PACE 3 7.5 -112 169 VIC 23/02/2019 2:55: Caulfield 5 7 Terbium PACE 1 7.50 6.5 -28 85 VIC 23/02/2019 3:30: Caulfield 6 2 Le Romain PACE 8 10.0 -37 94 VIC 23/02/2019 3:30: Caulfield 6 7 Land Of Plenty PACE 4 6.0 -51 108 VIC 23/02/2019 3:30: Caulfield 6 9 Manuel PACE 5 10.0 -60 117 VIC 23/02/2019 3:30: Caulfield 6 11 Alizee PACE 1 2.70 1.7 2 55 VIC 23/02/2019 4:10: Caulfield 7 1 I Am Immortal PACE 7 8.0 -9 66 VIC 23/02/2019 4:10: Caulfield 7 7 Lyre PACE 1 7.50 6.5 75 VIC 23/02/2019 4:10: Caulfield 7 8 Vinicunca PACE 8 9.0 65 10 VIC 23/02/2019 4:10: Caulfield 7 11 Athiri PACE 4 3.7 44 31 VIC 23/02/2019 4:50: Caulfield 8 3 Nature Strip PACE 10 1.2 -1 76 VIC 23/02/2019 4:50: Caulfield 8 4 Fell Swoop PACE 6 16.0 -6 81 VIC 23/02/2019 4:50: Caulfield 8 5 Bons Away PACE 4 9.0 -16 91 VIC 23/02/2019 4:50: Caulfield 8 10 Eduardo PACE 3 4.0 -36 111 VIC 23/02/2019 5:30: Caulfield 9 3 Trap For Fools PACE 2 14.0 -42 117 VIC 23/02/2019 5:30: Caulfield 9 7 The Taj Mahal PACE 8 8.0 -53 128 VIC 23/02/2019 5:30: Caulfield 9 8 Avilius PACE 1 1.90 0.9 -7 82 VIC 23/02/2019 5:30: Caulfield 9 9 Nights Watch PACE 4 5.0 -23 98 VIC |
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TIGER
Champion Joined: 23 Feb 2007 Status: Offline Points: 8533 |
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Stop embarrassing yourself whale
I missed three races as it was, 4 including my late tips in race 1 for being late which didn't count and rightly so. Will give it another crack next week, not as easy as it looks Have a nice day |
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EAD
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stayer
Champion Joined: 10 Aug 2010 Status: Offline Points: 21914 |
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 18 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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Dutching has been a very successful method over the years .
Being selective with the chosen races is paramount. Don Scott changed the "Punt" forever , after he released his books ( commencing in 1978). Educating Punters saw Bookmakers getting hammered , back in those days. Tougher now , of course, but still OK for the keen form students. |
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TIGER
Champion Joined: 23 Feb 2007 Status: Offline Points: 8533 |
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Don Scotts practical punting was a favourite of mine
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EAD
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Mayor
Admin Group Joined: 15 Feb 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 3389 |
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I've done the calculations.
There were 10 individual tipsters who got an average of 4.7 winners from the 9 races. Strike rate is therefore 52% Conclusion: Even if we select 4 horses in a race, we can only expect to get the winner 52% of the time. Our data shows that even if you bet with a staking plan on 4 horses in a race, there is still a 48% chance that the winner will come from outside those 4 horses. By the way, Euripedes won with 6 winners |
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Mayor
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bigal
Champion Joined: 29 Jan 2011 Status: Offline Points: 9802 |
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Mayor, just dutching the first 4 in the market gives you a 70% PLUS s/rate!! Again based on Saturday metro Vic and Sydney. ALLAN |
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 18 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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Given that 5 of the races were won by outsiders. 1 at odds on , so any method, betting in all 9 events would be a disaster. As was said the true % is 70% over time , Not 52. All interesting & entertaining I expect , but to build any mechanical methods , there is need for statistics over many years. Be a master of self control , bet strictly & safely to the available Bank and have the skills to get an edge on price shopping. Rest assured they have all "been done to death". |
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Mayor
Admin Group Joined: 15 Feb 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 3389 |
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Thanks Alan and maccamax, 70%, is that a mathematical conclusion? Like, what it's meant to be, based on probabilities? Maybe it depends on the number of runners? Did you work it out for today? The s/rate for the first 4 in the market.
Edited by Mayor - 02 Mar 2019 at 9:28pm |
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Mayor
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bigal
Champion Joined: 29 Jan 2011 Status: Offline Points: 9802 |
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not a mathematical CALCULATION. based on ACTUAL race results/prices for the last 14 years racing.This is the result if you Dutched the first 4 in the market in that time:
01/01/2005 to 03/03/2019 Race Bets Win WOut WRet WPrf RACE W% WPOT ------------------------------------------------------------- Totals 47597 8804 967585 865103 -102482 74.0 -10.4 ALLAN |
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bigal
Champion Joined: 29 Jan 2011 Status: Offline Points: 9802 |
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So, what you would have done was dutch the 1st 4 in the market say with 2 minutes to go before the start of the race ......
What if you backed them at LEVEL STAKES at best of 3 tabs/SP. You cannot dutch them at best of 3 tabs/SP as you do not know what the final tab prices are going to be. 01/01/2005 to 03/03/2019 Race Bets Win WOut WRet WPrf RACE W% WPOT Totals 47600 8804 4760000 4395340 -364660 74.0 -7.7
ALLAN |
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bigal
Champion Joined: 29 Jan 2011 Status: Offline Points: 9802 |
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BUT... if you dutched them 2 mins b4 the race based on the bookie prices BUT backed them at best of 3 tabs/SP your result would have been:
01/01/2005 to 03/03/2019 Race Bets Win WOut WRet WPrf RACE W% WPOT ------------------------------------------------------------- Totals 47597 8804 967585 911045 -56540 18 -5.8
ALLAN |
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 18 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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Sounds a bit like the very old and well advertised , ROYAL ROUTINE SYSTEM ,usually carried a very large Ad. in Sportsman for many years .
Based on your favourite Media Tipsters . All of these methods ,of numerous columns, chasing losses , CRASH in the end. |
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bigal
Champion Joined: 29 Jan 2011 Status: Offline Points: 9802 |
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I think you are the one that said........ if it ain't making money at SP........FORGET IT!! BUT that creates a whole new debate (staking/chasing losses), which has been done to death on here previously. Allan
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 18 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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All I said about SP was , It is the best guide to the merits of Tipping, In contrast to claims people make about the "overs" they get. Tom Waterhouse a good case to use as the example . He beats SP by 40% he claims ... Which isn't possible over time. Gives him a claim to hide behind. BUT , fools keep paying him incredible money to be misled. |
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Whale
Champion Joined: 01 Jun 2009 Location: St Kilda Beach Status: Offline Points: 38719 |
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Keep the experiment going Mayor, I will put in my selections next week, will be easier to make a profit
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bigal
Champion Joined: 29 Jan 2011 Status: Offline Points: 9802 |
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yes, I am agreeing with you.................... when I am creating a system I ONLY look at how the base rule performed at SP!! That then gives me a starting point "in the black" to work with as if it did not start with a profit, I dismiss it. 99/100 ideas are dismissed!! ALLAN
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 18 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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Bigal:-yes, I am agreeing with you....................
when I am creating a system I ONLY look at how the base rule performed at SP QUOTE:_ Exactly , And , with a set of suitable Rules, A Bank, Self control & patience , There are profitable methods out there. That's why Bookmakers ban/ restrict Winners. |
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bigal
Champion Joined: 29 Jan 2011 Status: Offline Points: 9802 |
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that's why they USED TO ban/ restrict Winners.......... ALLAN
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Mayor
Admin Group Joined: 15 Feb 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 3389 |
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Is that right? 18% ? What's the cause of that? Can you explain? Great discussion guys, very interesting. Mayor
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Mayor
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bigal
Champion Joined: 29 Jan 2011 Status: Offline Points: 9802 |
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sorry that is the % of winners from the 4 runners....... needs to be converted to "RACE" s/r and I change it manually, forgot to "change it to Race s/r" that's all. ALLAN
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VOYAGER
Champion Joined: 03 Aug 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 18737 |
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Okay I have had time on my hands and this is what I came up with from all our tips.
I have used a level stake of ten dollars on all runners, including the 5th selection, and used the NSW TAB dividends. 1. Maccamax - Spent $430 Return $577 = Profit of $147 2. Voyager - Spent $430 Return $575 = Profit of $145 3. Andicap - Spent $430 Return $509 = Profit of $ 79 4. Vixen - Spent $450 Return $472 = Profit of $ 27 5. Sister Dot-Spent $440 Return $455 = Profit of $ 15 6. Dizzy - Spent $430 Return $435 = Profit of $ 5 7. Euripides- Spent $450 Return $427 = Loss of $ 23 8. Stayer - Spent $450 Return $348 = Loss of $102 9. Dillwar - Spent $450 Return $249 = Loss of $201 10.Xavier - Spent $450 Return $237 = Loss of $213 So 6 out of the 10 had a profit. A few got some first fours and trifectas with Maccamax getting the best result from the exotics and Andicap also got the first four in the first. Edited by Mayor - 04 Mar 2019 at 2:35pm |
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Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Mayor
Admin Group Joined: 15 Feb 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 3389 |
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Wow, that's an interesting development.
Not only to make sure you select the winner but also to select with value to increase profits. Euripedes selected 6 of the 9 winners but made a loss? sheesh! I like this aspect. Next week will be exciting! Was the spend different because of scratchings? Edited by Mayor - 04 Mar 2019 at 2:35pm |
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Mayor
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Sister Dot
Premium Joined: 24 Nov 2009 Status: Offline Points: 4976 |
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R2 I snagged the first 4, in order. Would have been a good result if I’d have thought to do it 😊
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“Where in this wide world can man find nobility without pride, friendship without envy, or beauty without vanity? Here where grace is laced with muscle and strength by gentleness confined”
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Sister Dot
Premium Joined: 24 Nov 2009 Status: Offline Points: 4976 |
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Paid $28.10 ☹️ |
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“Where in this wide world can man find nobility without pride, friendship without envy, or beauty without vanity? Here where grace is laced with muscle and strength by gentleness confined”
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VOYAGER
Champion Joined: 03 Aug 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 18737 |
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Yeah the spend was different Mayor because some had Surprise Baby and also Widgee Turf, who were both scratched. |
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Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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VOYAGER
Champion Joined: 03 Aug 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 18737 |
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Okay here we go having another try at the card.
Race1, Nos.,3,5,8,7,(2) Race2, Nos.,4,1,7,2,(11) Race3, Nos.,6,1,11,3,(8) Race4, Nos.,3,5,2,1,(7) Race5, Nos.,1,2,10,12,(11) Race6, Nos.,14,4,22,17,(1) Race7, Nos.,11,2,1,7,(6) Race8, Nos.,7,3,1,15,(6) Race9, Nos.,2,1,5,8,(10) Good luck everyone! |
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Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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VOYAGER
Champion Joined: 03 Aug 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 18737 |
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I know it is not part of the experiment, but I love doing this so I will put in Randwick as well.
Race1, Nos.,1,3,5,7,(6) Race2, Nos.,2,4,6,10,(9) Race3, Nos.,4,1,2,10,(3) Race4, Nos.,1,2,4,8,(7) Race5, Nos.,1,2,7,5,(3) Race6, Nos.,2,5,3,7,(1) Race7, Nos.,7,1,8,4,(3) Race8, Nos.,6,1,3,8,(2) Race9, Nos.,1,10,7,4,(2) |
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Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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AndiCap
Champion Joined: 29 Jun 2014 Status: Offline Points: 6032 |
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Race1, Nos.,3,4,8,7,(2)
Race2, Nos.,4,1,7,2,(3) Race3, Nos.,6,1,11,12,(2) Race4, Nos.,3,5,2,6,(7) Race5, Nos.,3,2,10,12,(11) Race6, Nos.,5,4,22,2,(6) Race7, Nos.,10,12,1,14,(5) Race8, Nos.,7,2,1,4,(12) Race9, Nos.,2,11,4,12,(7)
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