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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bigal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 1:19pm
INTERESTINGLY.....this is the same thing but for ONE of the paid ratings that I subscribe to.
 
01/01/2017 to 02/03/2019
 Race Area       Bets Win Plc   WOut   WRet   WPrf        RACE W%   WPOT
-------------------------------------------------------------
Metropolitan     75101236     134225 120978 -13247        65.7             -9.9
 
only a few % better on s/r and cracks the under 10% loss  (just).
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bigal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 1:36pm
these are how you would have done your investments at Melb last Saturday.
 
23/02/2019 12:35 Caulfield       1   1 Jaameh              PACE  8                 6.5      -13       13 VIC
23/02/2019 12:35 Caulfield       1   2 Sikandarabad        PACE  1   3.50     2.5       57          VIC
23/02/2019 12:35 Caulfield       1   3 Midterm             PACE  3                 3.5       35       22 VIC
23/02/2019 12:35 Caulfield       1   4 Call Me Handsome    PACE  2            6.0       21       36 VIC

23/02/2019 1:10: Caulfield       2   1 Aramayo             PACE  3                 2.5       -7       64 VIC
23/02/2019 1:10: Caulfield       2   2 Cossetot            PACE  2                   3.7      -28       85 VIC
23/02/2019 1:10: Caulfield       2   3 Declares War        PACE  5                7.5      -39       96 VIC
23/02/2019 1:10: Caulfield       2  13 Lunar Flare         PACE 11                3.5      -61      118 VIC

23/02/2019 1:45: Caulfield       3   1 I Am A Star         PACE  6                 3.0      -86      143 VIC
23/02/2019 1:45: Caulfield       3   4 Jamaican Rain       PACE  1   6.00      5.0       -6       63 VIC
23/02/2019 1:45: Caulfield       3   6 Teleplay            PACE  3                   10.0      -15       72 VIC
23/02/2019 1:45: Caulfield       3   8 Naantali            PACE  2                   3.5      -37       94 VIC

23/02/2019 2:20: Caulfield       4   1 Futooh              PACE  9                  10.0      -46      103 VIC
23/02/2019 2:20: Caulfield       4   2 Angelic Ruler       PACE  2                 1.6      -84      141 VIC
23/02/2019 2:20: Caulfield       4   3 Qafila              PACE  1   6.50           5.5       -2       59 VIC
23/02/2019 2:20: Caulfield       4   5 News Girl           PACE  4                  5.5      -17       74 VIC

23/02/2019 2:55: Caulfield       5   1 Zousain             PACE  2                    0.4      -88      145 VIC
23/02/2019 2:55: Caulfield       5   5 Poised To Strike    PACE  5                 6.5     -101      158 VIC
23/02/2019 2:55: Caulfield       5   6 Yulong January      PACE  3                7.5     -112      169 VIC
23/02/2019 2:55: Caulfield       5   7 Terbium             PACE  1   7.50          6.5      -28       85 VIC

23/02/2019 3:30: Caulfield       6   2 Le Romain           PACE  8                10.0      -37       94 VIC
23/02/2019 3:30: Caulfield       6   7 Land Of Plenty      PACE  4                 6.0      -51      108 VIC
23/02/2019 3:30: Caulfield       6   9 Manuel              PACE  5                  10.0      -60      117 VIC
23/02/2019 3:30: Caulfield       6  11 Alizee              PACE  1   2.70          1.7        2       55 VIC
 
23/02/2019 4:10: Caulfield       7   1 I Am Immortal       PACE  7                 8.0       -9       66 VIC
23/02/2019 4:10: Caulfield       7   7 Lyre                PACE  1   7.50             6.5       75          VIC
23/02/2019 4:10: Caulfield       7   8 Vinicunca           PACE  8                    9.0       65       10 VIC
23/02/2019 4:10: Caulfield       7  11 Athiri              PACE  4                      3.7       44       31 VIC

23/02/2019 4:50: Caulfield       8   3 Nature Strip        PACE 10                 1.2       -1       76 VIC
23/02/2019 4:50: Caulfield       8   4 Fell Swoop          PACE  6                 16.0       -6       81 VIC
23/02/2019 4:50: Caulfield       8   5 Bons Away           PACE  4                 9.0      -16       91 VIC
23/02/2019 4:50: Caulfield       8  10 Eduardo             PACE  3                  4.0      -36      111 VIC

23/02/2019 5:30: Caulfield       9   3 Trap For Fools      PACE  2                14.0      -42      117 VIC
23/02/2019 5:30: Caulfield       9   7 The Taj Mahal       PACE  8                 8.0      -53      128 VIC
23/02/2019 5:30: Caulfield       9   8 Avilius             PACE  1   1.90            0.9       -7       82 VIC
23/02/2019 5:30: Caulfield       9   9 Nights Watch        PACE  4                 5.0      -23       98 VIC
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote TIGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 2:04pm
Stop embarrassing yourself whale

I missed three races as it was, 4 including my late tips in race 1 for being late which didn't count and rightly so.

Will give it another crack next week, not as easy as it looks

Have a nice day


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote stayer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 2:12pm
Originally posted by Mayor Mayor wrote:

If people enjoy it, we can make it a weekly thing?

I was just reading up about Dutch Staking Plans... where you select several runners in a field and try to guarantee a result. I was just curious as to whether, from picking 4 horses in each race, what percentage of winners you would expect to get throughout the day. For example, if you got the winner in 5 of the 9 races, the percentage would be 55%. What would you expect to get?

I thought if I could get a sample of punters and see what sort of average percentage winners they got from 4 selections in each race, it would tell us the approximate chance of this type of staking plan succeeding.

"Dutch Staking or Dutching is a staking strategy used to divide your stake over a number of selections in a market so that a consistent amount is won regardless of which selection wins. This method is commonly used when there are two or more outcomes in an event that a punter wants to back. Horse racing punters often use Dutching when backing multiple runners."




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 3:13pm
Dutching has been a very successful method over the years .

Being selective with the chosen races is paramount.

Don Scott changed the "Punt" forever , after he released his books
( commencing in 1978).
Educating Punters saw Bookmakers getting hammered , back in those days.
Tougher now , of course, but still OK for the keen form students.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote TIGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 3:55pm
Don Scotts practical punting was a favourite of mine
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mayor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 8:01pm
I've done the calculations.

There were 10 individual tipsters who got an average of 4.7 winners from the 9 races.

Strike rate is therefore 52%

Conclusion: Even if we select 4 horses in a race, we can only expect to get the winner 52% of the time.

Our data shows that even if you bet with a staking plan on 4 horses in a race, there is still a 48% chance that the winner will come from outside those 4 horses.

By the way, Euripedes won with 6 winners Tongue


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bigal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 8:31pm
Originally posted by Mayor Mayor wrote:

I've done the calculations.

There were 10 individual tipsters who got an average of 4.7 winners from the 9 races.

Strike rate is therefore 52%

Conclusion: Even if we select 4 horses in a race, we can only expect to get the winner 52% of the time.

Our data shows that even if you bet with a staking plan on 4 horses in a race, there is still a 48% chance that the winner will come from outside those 4 horses.

By the way, Euripedes won with 6 winners Tongue


 
Mayor, just dutching the first 4 in the market gives you a 70% PLUS s/rate!! Again based on Saturday metro Vic and Sydney.
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 8:55pm
Originally posted by Mayor Mayor wrote:

I've done the calculations.

There were 10 individual tipsters who got an average of 4.7 winners from the 9 races.

Strike rate is therefore 52%

Conclusion: Even if we select 4 horses in a race, we can only expect to get the winner 52% of the time.

Our data shows that even if you bet with a staking plan on 4 horses in a race, there is still a 48% chance that the winner will come from outside those 4 horses.

By the way, Euripedes won with 6 winners Tongue




A bad day at Flemington today , as an example for any percentages.
Given that 5 of the races were won by outsiders. 1 at odds on , so any method, betting in all 9 events would be a disaster.
As was said the true % is 70% over time ,   Not 52.

All interesting & entertaining I expect , but to build any mechanical methods , there is need for statistics over many years.
Be a master of self control , bet strictly & safely to the available Bank and have the skills to get an edge on price shopping.
Rest assured they have all "been done to death".
   
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mayor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 9:28pm
Originally posted by bigal bigal wrote:


Mayor, just dutching the first 4 in the market gives you a 70% PLUS s/rate!! Again based on Saturday metro Vic and Sydney.


Thanks Alan and maccamax,

70%, is that a mathematical conclusion? Like, what it's meant to be, based on probabilities? Maybe it depends on the number of runners? 

Did you work it out for today? The s/rate for the first 4 in the market.


Edited by Mayor - 02 Mar 2019 at 9:28pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bigal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Mar 2019 at 6:16am
not a mathematical CALCULATION. based on ACTUAL race results/prices for the last 14 years racing.
This is the result if you Dutched the first 4 in the market in that time:
 
01/01/2005 to 03/03/2019
 Race         Bets     Win      WOut   WRet        WPrf      RACE W%   WPOT
-------------------------------------------------------------

 Totals        47597 8804     967585 865103   -102482      74.0      -10.4
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bigal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Mar 2019 at 6:24am
So, what you would have done was dutch the 1st 4 in the market say with 2 minutes to go before the start of the race ......
What if you backed them at LEVEL STAKES at best of 3 tabs/SP. You cannot dutch them at best of 3 tabs/SP as you do not know what the final tab prices are going to be.
 
01/01/2005 to 03/03/2019
 Race       Bets      Win        WOut        WRet           WPrf     RACE W%        WPOT
 Totals   47600     8804    4760000     4395340    -364660        74.0            -7.7

 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bigal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Mar 2019 at 6:32am
BUT... if you dutched them 2 mins b4 the race based on the bookie prices BUT backed them at best of 3 tabs/SP your result would have been:
 
01/01/2005 to 03/03/2019
 Race       Bets      Win       WOut        WRet   WPrf     RACE W%   WPOT
-------------------------------------------------------------

Totals       47597  8804     967585    911045 -56540      18          -5.8

 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Mar 2019 at 10:21am
Sounds a bit like the very old and well advertised ,   ROYAL ROUTINE SYSTEM ,usually carried a very large Ad. in Sportsman for many years .

   Based on your favourite Media Tipsters .

All of these methods ,of numerous columns, chasing losses , CRASH in the end.   


     
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bigal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Mar 2019 at 10:27am
Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Sounds a bit like the very old and well advertised ,   ROYAL ROUTINE SYSTEM ,usually carried a very large Ad. in Sportsman for many years .

   Based on your favourite Media Tipsters .

All of these methods ,of numerous columns, chasing losses , CRASH in the end.   


     
 
I think you are the one that said........
 
if it ain't making money at SP........FORGET IT!!
 
BUT that creates a whole new debate (staking/chasing losses), which has been done to death on here previously.
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Mar 2019 at 10:53am
Originally posted by bigal bigal wrote:

Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Sounds a bit like the very old and well advertised ,   ROYAL ROUTINE SYSTEM ,usually carried a very large Ad. in Sportsman for many years .

   Based on your favourite Media Tipsters .

All of these methods ,of numerous columns, chasing losses , CRASH in the end.   


     

 
I think you are the one that said........
 
if it ain't making money at SP........FORGET IT!!
 
BUT that creates a whole new debate (staking/chasing losses), which has been done to death on here previously.
 
Allan


All I said about SP was ,   It is the best guide to the merits of Tipping,
In contrast to claims people make about the "overs" they get.
      Tom Waterhouse a good case to use as the example .
He beats SP by 40% he claims ...     Which isn't possible over time.
      Gives him a claim to hide behind.

BUT , fools keep paying him incredible money to be misled.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Mar 2019 at 11:04am
Keep the experiment going Mayor, I will put in my selections next week, will be easier to make a profit Thumbs Up
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bigal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Mar 2019 at 11:10am
Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Originally posted by bigal bigal wrote:

Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Sounds a bit like the very old and well advertised ,   ROYAL ROUTINE SYSTEM ,usually carried a very large Ad. in Sportsman for many years .

   Based on your favourite Media Tipsters .

All of these methods ,of numerous columns, chasing losses , CRASH in the end.   


     

 
I think you are the one that said........
 
if it ain't making money at SP........FORGET IT!!
 
BUT that creates a whole new debate (staking/chasing losses), which has been done to death on here previously.
 
Allan


All I said about SP was ,   It is the best guide to the merits of Tipping, 
  .
 
yes, I am agreeing with you....................
when I am creating a system I ONLY look at how the base rule performed at SP!! That then gives me a starting point "in the black" to work with as if it did not start with a profit, I dismiss it.
99/100 ideas are dismissed!!
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Mar 2019 at 11:22am
Bigal:-yes, I am agreeing with you....................
when I am creating a system I ONLY look at how the base rule performed at SP

QUOTE:_    Exactly ,     And , with a set of suitable Rules, A Bank, Self control & patience ,   There are profitable methods out there.
That's why Bookmakers ban/ restrict Winners.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bigal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Mar 2019 at 11:46am
Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Bigal:-yes, I am agreeing with you....................
when I am creating a system I ONLY look at how the base rule performed at SP

QUOTE:_    Exactly ,     And , with a set of suitable Rules, A Bank, Self control & patience ,   There are profitable methods out there.
That's why Bookmakers ban/ restrict Winners.
 
that's why they USED TO ban/ restrict Winners..........
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mayor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Mar 2019 at 3:53pm
Is that right? 18% ?

What's the cause of that? Can you explain?

Great discussion guys, very interesting.
Mayor

Originally posted by bigal bigal wrote:

BUT... if you dutched them 2 mins b4 the race based on the bookie prices BUT backed them at best of 3 tabs/SP your result would have been:
 
01/01/2005 to 03/03/2019
 Race       Bets      Win       WOut        WRet   WPrf     RACE W%   WPOT
-------------------------------------------------------------

Totals       47597  8804     967585    911045 -56540      18          -5.8

 

ALLAN


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bigal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Mar 2019 at 3:58pm
Originally posted by Mayor Mayor wrote:

Is that right? 18% ?

What's the cause of that? Can you explain?

Great discussion guys, very interesting.
Mayor

Originally posted by bigal bigal wrote:

BUT... if you dutched them 2 mins b4 the race based on the bookie prices BUT backed them at best of 3 tabs/SP your result would have been:
 
01/01/2005 to 03/03/2019
 Race       Bets      Win       WOut        WRet   WPrf     RACE W%   WPOT
-------------------------------------------------------------

Totals       47597  8804     967585    911045 -56540      18          -5.8

 

ALLAN


 
sorry that is the % of winners from the 4 runners....... needs to be converted to "RACE" s/r and I change it manually, forgot to "change it to Race s/r" that's all.
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Mar 2019 at 1:50pm
Okay I have had time on my hands and this is what I came up with from all our tips.

I have used a level stake of ten dollars on all runners, including the 5th selection, and used the NSW TAB dividends.

1. Maccamax - Spent $430 Return $577 = Profit of $147
2. Voyager - Spent $430 Return $575 = Profit of $145
3. Andicap - Spent $430 Return $509 = Profit of $ 79
4. Vixen    - Spent $450 Return $472 = Profit of $ 27
5. Sister Dot-Spent $440 Return $455 = Profit of $ 15
6. Dizzy    - Spent $430 Return $435 = Profit of $ 5
7. Euripides- Spent $450 Return $427 = Loss   of $ 23
8. Stayer   - Spent $450 Return $348 = Loss   of $102
9. Dillwar - Spent $450 Return $249 = Loss   of $201
10.Xavier   - Spent $450 Return $237 = Loss   of $213

So 6 out of the 10 had a profit.

A few got some first fours and trifectas with Maccamax getting the best result from the exotics and Andicap also got the first four in the first.





Edited by Mayor - 04 Mar 2019 at 2:35pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mayor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Mar 2019 at 2:33pm
Wow, that's an interesting development.

Not only to make sure you select the winner but also to select with value to increase profits.

Euripedes selected 6 of the 9 winners but made a loss? sheesh!

I like this aspect. Next week will be exciting!

Was the spend different because of scratchings?




Edited by Mayor - 04 Mar 2019 at 2:35pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sister Dot Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Mar 2019 at 2:36pm
R2 I snagged the first 4, in order. Would have been a good result if I’d have thought to do it 😊
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sister Dot Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Mar 2019 at 2:40pm
Originally posted by Sister Dot Sister Dot wrote:

R2 I snagged the first 4, in order. Would have been a good result if I’d have thought to do it 😊

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Mar 2019 at 2:49pm
Originally posted by Mayor Mayor wrote:

Wow, that's an interesting development.

Not only to make sure you select the winner but also to select with value to increase profits.

Euripedes selected 6 of the 9 winners but made a loss? sheesh!

I like this aspect. Next week will be exciting!

Was the spend different because of scratchings?





Yeah the spend was different Mayor because some had Surprise Baby and also Widgee Turf, who were both scratched.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Mar 2019 at 2:55pm
Okay here we go having another try at the card.

Race1, Nos.,3,5,8,7,(2)
Race2, Nos.,4,1,7,2,(11)
Race3, Nos.,6,1,11,3,(8)
Race4, Nos.,3,5,2,1,(7)
Race5, Nos.,1,2,10,12,(11)
Race6, Nos.,14,4,22,17,(1)
Race7, Nos.,11,2,1,7,(6)
Race8, Nos.,7,3,1,15,(6)
Race9, Nos.,2,1,5,8,(10)

Good luck everyone!
Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Mar 2019 at 3:04pm
I know it is not part of the experiment, but I love doing this so I will put in Randwick as well.

Race1, Nos.,1,3,5,7,(6)
Race2, Nos.,2,4,6,10,(9)
Race3, Nos.,4,1,2,10,(3)
Race4, Nos.,1,2,4,8,(7)
Race5, Nos.,1,2,7,5,(3)
Race6, Nos.,2,5,3,7,(1)
Race7, Nos.,7,1,8,4,(3)
Race8, Nos.,6,1,3,8,(2)
Race9, Nos.,1,10,7,4,(2)
Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote AndiCap Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Mar 2019 at 6:33pm
Race1, Nos.,3,4,8,7,(2)
Race2, Nos.,4,1,7,2,(3)
Race3, Nos.,6,1,11,12,(2)
Race4, Nos.,3,5,2,6,(7)
Race5, Nos.,3,2,10,12,(11)
Race6, Nos.,5,4,22,2,(6)
Race7, Nos.,10,12,1,14,(5)
Race8, Nos.,7,2,1,4,(12)
Race9, Nos.,2,11,4,12,(7)
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