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Experiment this Saturday, please read. |
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Mayor
Admin Group Joined: 15 Feb 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 3389 |
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Posted: 27 Feb 2019 at 8:14am |
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Here's an experiment I'm doing this Saturday, for Villagebet. 4 horses in each race! Surely you can tip the card. Surely.. Please also nominate a 5th horse in each race, just in case there's a late scratching. Entries will be open all day Friday and also on Saturday morning, until about 10am. Note that the races are starting earlier because of the heat. First race is 10:55am! In this thread, (press reply to this post), enter your selections by submitting something like this... Race 1, Nos., 1,8,12,14,(16) Race 2, Nos., 2,6,8,12,(5) Race 3, Nos., 5,7,9,15,(4) etc... Copy and paste this template and fill it in: Race 1, Nos., ,,,,() Race 2, Nos., ,,,,() Race 3, Nos., ,,,,() Race 4, Nos., ,,,,() Race 5, Nos., ,,,,() Race 6, Nos., ,,,,() Race 7, Nos., ,,,,() Race 8, Nos., ,,,,() Race 9, Nos., ,,,,() Note: Try to keep the commas as they are shown here, as it will be easier for me to import into the spreadsheet. Prize for tipping the card? .. VILLAGE BRAGGING RIGHTS! Many thanks for your participation. I'm going to collate the data and report results, so the more entries the greater sample size. Thank you! Cheers Mayor
Edited by Mayor - 01 Mar 2019 at 9:20am |
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Mayor
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Xavier
Champion Joined: 27 Jul 2016 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 3660 |
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I’ll give it a crack.
Race 1, Nos., 1,2,7,8,(3) Race 2, Nos., 5,2,9,6,(10) Race 3, Nos., 3,2,8,4,(7) Race 4, Nos., 3,6,8,5,(2) Race 5, Nos., 3,4,10,7,(9) Race 6, Nos., 1,7,13,3,(12) Race 7, Nos., 3,4,5,6,(7) Race 8, Nos., 1,8,14,4,(15) Race 9, Nos., 1,3,9,14,(6) Edited by Mayor - 01 Mar 2019 at 9:21am |
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Karl and Susan Kennedy are my heroes
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AndiCap
Champion Joined: 29 Jun 2014 Status: Offline Points: 6032 |
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Race 1, Nos.,2 ,5,1,7,(6)
Race 2, Nos.,5 ,3,7,9,(2) Race 3, Nos.,4 ,1,2,6,(7) Race 4, Nos., 8,6,3,7,(5) Race 5, Nos.,1 ,3,4,9,(6) Race 6, Nos.,3 ,1,7,6,(5) Race 7, Nos.,1 ,4,6,5,(11) Race 8, Nos., 7,1,5,14,(2) Race 9, Nos.,3 ,8,1,2,(5) |
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Dillwar
Yearling Joined: 05 Feb 2013 Location: Victoria Status: Offline Points: 211 |
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Race 1, Nos., 2,7,1,4,(5)
Race 2, Nos., 5,2,9,6,(7) Race 3, Nos., 8,7,2,6,(1) Race 4, Nos., 7,8,6,5,(3) Race 5, Nos., 4,9,6,8,(10) Race 6, Nos., 3,1,7,12,(9) Race 7, Nos., 6,9,1,4,(11) Race 8, Nos., 14,15,4,8,(7) Race 9, Nos., 14,2,12,7,(10) |
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Dizzy
Premium Joined: 17 Sep 2013 Location: Canberra Status: Offline Points: 16863 |
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Race 1, Nos.,1,2,5,7, (4) Race 2, Nos., 2,5,6,9, (3) Race 3, Nos.,2,9,7,8, (3) Race 4, Nos.,5,6,7,8, (4) Race 5, Nos.,1,4,9,10, (8) Race 6, Nos.,1,3,7,10, (12) Race 7, Nos.,1,4,6,11, (9) Race 8, Nos.,4,5,14,15, (8) Race 9, Nos.,2,7,8,14,
(9) |
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 18 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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Race 1, Nos.,2 ,5,7,1,(6) Race 2, Nos.,5 ,2,9,6,(4) Race 3, Nos.,8 ,7,2,6,(3) Race 4, Nos.,7 ,6,8,3,(4) Race 5, Nos.,4 ,9,6,10,(3) Race 6, Nos.,3 ,1,9,11,(7) Race 7, Nos.,4 ,6,1,11,(9) Race 8, Nos.,15 ,8,14,4,(2) Race 9, Nos.,2 ,14,7,10,(1) Edited by Mayor - 02 Mar 2019 at 6:22am |
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VOYAGER
Champion Joined: 03 Aug 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 18737 |
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Race 1, Nos.,7 ,2,4,10,(6)
Race 2, Nos.,5 ,2,6,9,(7) Race 3, Nos.,2 ,7,8,1,(4) Race 4, Nos.,5 ,6,8,3,(7) Race 5, Nos.,4 ,2,10,8,(3) Race 6, Nos.,3 ,12,7,9,(13) Race 7, Nos.,1 ,6,4,5,(15) Race 8, Nos.,14 ,15,5,1,(4) Race 9, Nos.,4 ,14,9,7,(9) |
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Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Euripedes
Premium Joined: 18 Feb 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 343 |
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Race 1, Nos., 4,7,11,12,(2)
Race 2, Nos., 2,5,6,7,(3) Race 3, Nos., 2,3,7,8,(4) Race 4, Nos., 5,6,7,8,(3) Race 5, Nos., 3,4,6,9,(2) Race 6, Nos., 1,7,9,11,(12) Race 7, Nos., 4,5,6,8,(11) Race 8, Nos., 3,5,8,14,(1) Race 9, Nos., 1,2,3,9,(14)
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Euripides (c. 480-406 BC)
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Mayor
Admin Group Joined: 15 Feb 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 3389 |
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If anyone wants to change their tips due to a scratching, just reply and put up a new post, and I'll take your latest post as final.
Thanks for entering! (I appreciate the hard work to do this, cheers)
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Mayor
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Dizzy
Premium Joined: 17 Sep 2013 Location: Canberra Status: Offline Points: 16863 |
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Updated
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stayer
Champion Joined: 10 Aug 2010 Status: Offline Points: 21914 |
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Race 1, Nos., 1,2,4,7,(3)
Race 2, Nos., 2,5,6,7,(3) Race 3, Nos., 2,6,7,8,(1) Race 4, Nos., 3,6,7,8,(5) Race 5, Nos., 1,4,8,9,(10) Race 6, Nos., 1,7,12,13,(9) Race 7, Nos., 5,6,10,11,(15) Race 8, Nos., 2,7,14,15,(5) Race 9, Nos., 1,2,10,14,(7) |
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Sister Dot
Premium Joined: 24 Nov 2009 Status: Offline Points: 4976 |
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R No 1; 7,2,5,4 (6)
R No 2; 5,2,9,6 (1) R No3; 2,7,8,4 (3) R No 4; 5,7,8,6 (3) R No 5; 3,4,9,10 (6) R No 6; 12,1,11,7 (13) R No 7; 6,1,11,4 (9) R No 8; 4,15,14,2 (11) R No 9; 14,2,8,7 (12) |
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“Where in this wide world can man find nobility without pride, friendship without envy, or beauty without vanity? Here where grace is laced with muscle and strength by gentleness confined”
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Vixen
Champion Joined: 07 Jan 2018 Status: Offline Points: 2035 |
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Race 1, Nos.2,1,4,7, (5) Race 2, Nos.5,2,6,7,(3) Race 3, Nos.7,8,2,6,4(1) Race 4, Nos 6,7,5,8,(3) Race 5, Nos. 4,9,6,10,(3) Race 6, Nos. 12,9,11,6,(13) Race 7, Nos. 6,1,11,4,(5) Race 8, Nos.14,15,8,4(1) Race 9, Nos.14,2,7,10,(12) |
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Vixen
Champion Joined: 07 Jan 2018 Status: Offline Points: 2035 |
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* its only 9.30am where i am !! |
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Sister Dot
Premium Joined: 24 Nov 2009 Status: Offline Points: 4976 |
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Race 1, Nos., 7,2,5,4,(6)
Race 2, Nos., 5,2,6,3,(7) Race 3, Nos., 2,7,8,4,(3) Race 4, Nos., 5,7,8,6,(3) Race 5, Nos., 3,4,9,10,(6) Race 6, Nos., 12,1,11,7,(13) Race 7, Nos., 6,1,11,4,(9) Race 8, Nos., 4,15,14,2,(11) Race 9, Nos., 14,2,8,7,(12) |
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“Where in this wide world can man find nobility without pride, friendship without envy, or beauty without vanity? Here where grace is laced with muscle and strength by gentleness confined”
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TIGER
Champion Joined: 23 Feb 2007 Status: Offline Points: 8533 |
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I'm boxing the entire card
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EAD
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Dizzy
Premium Joined: 17 Sep 2013 Location: Canberra Status: Offline Points: 16863 |
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Lol that was quick. All out in the first.
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stayer
Champion Joined: 10 Aug 2010 Status: Offline Points: 21914 |
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All out.
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Mayor
Admin Group Joined: 15 Feb 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 3389 |
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Tipping the Card quickly off the table.
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Mayor
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TIGER
Champion Joined: 23 Feb 2007 Status: Offline Points: 8533 |
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R1 2,4,6,10 - Was run when doing tips, didn't look
R2 2,5,6,7 R3 2,6,7,8 R4 3,6,7,8 R5 4,6,8,9 R6 2,7,9,12 R7 1,6,11,15 R8 4,11,14,15 R9 2,3,12,14 |
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EAD
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TIGER
Champion Joined: 23 Feb 2007 Status: Offline Points: 8533 |
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Oh well out, rules are rules, didn't have tips in on time |
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EAD
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 18 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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My box of 5 got the First 4 in R1... $4311.. What's the prize.?
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TIGER
Champion Joined: 23 Feb 2007 Status: Offline Points: 8533 |
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Scan your ticket, collect the cash and go home |
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EAD
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Mayor
Admin Group Joined: 15 Feb 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 3389 |
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Good job maccamax, given Mockery started at $18.80
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Mayor
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Mayor
Admin Group Joined: 15 Feb 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 3389 |
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Yeah, unfortunately can't really accept it. It's a pity because you would have kept us alive.
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Mayor
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Whale
Champion Joined: 01 Jun 2009 Location: St Kilda Beach Status: Offline Points: 38719 |
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you can't help lying can you ?
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 18 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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One would expect Whale not to troll us cripples in front of the Mayor and unsettle members trying to be a part a new style & interesting concept.
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stayer
Champion Joined: 10 Aug 2010 Status: Offline Points: 21914 |
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Doesn't matter anyway - we'd still all be out by now.
What's the aim and hypothesis of this experiment, Mr Mayor? Will it be a weekly thing? |
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Mayor
Admin Group Joined: 15 Feb 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 3389 |
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If people enjoy it, we can make it a weekly thing?
I was just reading up about Dutch Staking Plans... where you select several runners in a field and try to guarantee a result. I was just curious as to whether, from picking 4 horses in each race, what percentage of winners you would expect to get throughout the day. For example, if you got the winner in 5 of the 9 races, the percentage would be 55%. What would you expect to get? I thought if I could get a sample of punters and see what sort of average percentage winners they got from 4 selections in each race, it would tell us the approximate chance of this type of staking plan succeeding. "Dutch Staking or Dutching is a staking strategy used to divide your stake over a number of selections in a market so that a consistent amount is won regardless of which selection wins. This method is commonly used when there are two or more outcomes in an event that a punter wants to back. Horse racing punters often use Dutching when backing multiple runners." Edited by Mayor - 02 Mar 2019 at 12:46pm |
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Mayor
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bigal
Champion Joined: 29 Jan 2011 Status: Offline Points: 9802 |
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01/01/2017 to 02/03/2019
Race Area Bets Win Plc WOut WRet WPrf RACE W% WPOT ------------------------------------------------------------- Metropolitan 75091180 130154 115429 -14725 62.7 -11.3Don't know if this helps Mayor, it's just a snapshot.I ran the top 4 in the freely available Qld Tab ratings, then dutched them to win $100 at SP for Saturday races only in metro Syd and Melb.. The race win s/rate was pretty good at 62.7% but lost 11.3% at SP.I believe that is about what you could expect to get from ANY FREE ratings.ALLAN |
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