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Experiment this Saturday, please read.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Mayor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Experiment this Saturday, please read.
    Posted: 27 Feb 2019 at 8:14am
Here's an experiment I'm doing this Saturday, for Villagebet.

Can I ask you to try to pick the winner in each race this Saturday at Flemington, by nominating 4 horses in each race.

4 horses in each race! Surely you can tip the card. Surely..

Please also nominate a 5th horse in each race, just in case there's a late scratching.

Entries will be open all day Friday and also on Saturday morning, until about 10am.

Note that the races are starting earlier because of the heat. First race is 10:55am!

In this thread, (press reply to this post), enter your selections by submitting something like this...

Race 1, Nos., 1,8,12,14,(16)
Race 2, Nos., 2,6,8,12,(5)
Race 3, Nos., 5,7,9,15,(4)   
etc...

Copy and paste this template and fill it in:

Race 1, Nos., ,,,,()
Race 2, Nos., ,,,,()
Race 3, Nos., ,,,,()
Race 4, Nos., ,,,,()
Race 5, Nos., ,,,,()
Race 6, Nos., ,,,,()
Race 7, Nos., ,,,,()
Race 8, Nos., ,,,,()
Race 9, Nos., ,,,,()

Note: Try to keep the commas as they are shown here, as it will be easier for me to import into the spreadsheet.

Prize for tipping the card? .. VILLAGE BRAGGING RIGHTS!

Many thanks for your participation. I'm going to collate the data and report results, so the more entries the greater sample size. Thank you!

Cheers
Mayor




Edited by Mayor - 01 Mar 2019 at 9:20am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Xavier Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Mar 2019 at 8:14am
I’ll give it a crack.

Race 1, Nos., 1,2,7,8,(3)
Race 2, Nos., 5,2,9,6,(10)
Race 3, Nos., 3,2,8,4,(7)
Race 4, Nos., 3,6,8,5,(2)
Race 5, Nos., 3,4,10,7,(9)
Race 6, Nos., 1,7,13,3,(12)
Race 7, Nos., 3,4,5,6,(7)
Race 8, Nos., 1,8,14,4,(15)
Race 9, Nos., 1,3,9,14,(6)




Edited by Mayor - 01 Mar 2019 at 9:21am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote AndiCap Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Mar 2019 at 1:27pm
Race 1, Nos.,2 ,5,1,7,(6)
Race 2, Nos.,5 ,3,7,9,(2)
Race 3, Nos.,4 ,1,2,6,(7)
Race 4, Nos., 8,6,3,7,(5)
Race 5, Nos.,1 ,3,4,9,(6)
Race 6, Nos.,3 ,1,7,6,(5)
Race 7, Nos.,1 ,4,6,5,(11)
Race 8, Nos., 7,1,5,14,(2)
Race 9, Nos.,3 ,8,1,2,(5)

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dillwar Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Mar 2019 at 3:32pm
Race 1, Nos., 2,7,1,4,(5)
Race 2, Nos., 5,2,9,6,(7)
Race 3, Nos., 8,7,2,6,(1)
Race 4, Nos., 7,8,6,5,(3)
Race 5, Nos., 4,9,6,8,(10)
Race 6, Nos., 3,1,7,12,(9)
Race 7, Nos., 6,9,1,4,(11)
Race 8, Nos., 14,15,4,8,(7)
Race 9, Nos., 14,2,12,7,(10)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dizzy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Mar 2019 at 3:45pm

Race 1, Nos.,1,2,5,7, (4)

Race 2, Nos., 2,5,6,9, (3)

Race 3, Nos.,2,9,7,8, (3)

Race 4, Nos.,5,6,7,8, (4)

Race 5, Nos.,1,4,9,10, (8)

Race 6, Nos.,1,3,7,10, (12)

Race 7, Nos.,1,4,6,11, (9)

Race 8, Nos.,4,5,14,15, (8)

Race 9, Nos.,2,7,8,14, (9)

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Mar 2019 at 3:52pm
Race 1, Nos.,2 ,5,7,1,(6)
Race 2, Nos.,5 ,2,9,6,(4)
Race 3, Nos.,8 ,7,2,6,(3)
Race 4, Nos.,7 ,6,8,3,(4)
Race 5, Nos.,4 ,9,6,10,(3)
Race 6, Nos.,3 ,1,9,11,(7)
Race 7, Nos.,4 ,6,1,11,(9)
Race 8, Nos.,15 ,8,14,4,(2)
Race 9, Nos.,2 ,14,7,10,(1)


Edited by Mayor - 02 Mar 2019 at 6:22am
NEVER FORGET,    > DOCTORS < ---
   CAN'T SAVE THEMSELVES.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Mar 2019 at 4:48pm
Race 1, Nos.,7 ,2,4,10,(6)
Race 2, Nos.,5 ,2,6,9,(7)
Race 3, Nos.,2 ,7,8,1,(4)
Race 4, Nos.,5 ,6,8,3,(7)
Race 5, Nos.,4 ,2,10,8,(3)
Race 6, Nos.,3 ,12,7,9,(13)
Race 7, Nos.,1 ,6,4,5,(15)
Race 8, Nos.,14 ,15,5,1,(4)
Race 9, Nos.,4 ,14,9,7,(9)   
Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Euripedes Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 6:07am
Race 1, Nos., 4,7,11,12,(2)
Race 2, Nos., 2,5,6,7,(3)
Race 3, Nos., 2,3,7,8,(4)
Race 4, Nos., 5,6,7,8,(3)
Race 5, Nos., 3,4,6,9,(2)
Race 6, Nos., 1,7,9,11,(12)
Race 7, Nos., 4,5,6,8,(11)
Race 8, Nos., 3,5,8,14,(1)
Race 9, Nos., 1,2,3,9,(14)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mayor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 6:21am
If anyone wants to change their tips due to a scratching, just reply and put up a new post, and I'll take your latest post as final.

Thanks for entering! 

(I appreciate the hard work to do this, cheers)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dizzy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 7:15am
Originally posted by Dizzy Dizzy wrote:

Race 1, Nos.,1,2,5,7, (4)

Race 2, Nos.,2,5,6,3, (4)

Race 3, Nos.,2,4,7,8, (3)

Race 4, Nos.,5,6,7,8, (4)

Race 5, Nos.,1,4,9,10, (8)

Race 6, Nos.,1,9,7,10, (12)

Race 7, Nos.,1,4,6,11, (9)

Race 8, Nos.,4,5,14,15, (8)

Race 9, Nos.,2,7,8,14, (9)

 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote stayer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 7:30am
Race 1, Nos., 1,2,4,7,(3)
Race 2, Nos., 2,5,6,7,(3)
Race 3, Nos., 2,6,7,8,(1)
Race 4, Nos., 3,6,7,8,(5)
Race 5, Nos., 1,4,8,9,(10)
Race 6, Nos., 1,7,12,13,(9)
Race 7, Nos., 5,6,10,11,(15)
Race 8, Nos., 2,7,14,15,(5)
Race 9, Nos., 1,2,10,14,(7)
"She's going through a growth phase." - GW
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sister Dot Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 8:14am
R No 1; 7,2,5,4 (6)
R No 2; 5,2,9,6 (1)
R No3; 2,7,8,4 (3)
R No 4; 5,7,8,6 (3)
R No 5; 3,4,9,10 (6)
R No 6; 12,1,11,7 (13)
R No 7; 6,1,11,4 (9)
R No 8; 4,15,14,2 (11)
R No 9; 14,2,8,7 (12)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Vixen Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 8:29am

Race 1, Nos.2,1,4,7, (5)

Race 2, Nos.5,2,6,7,(3)

Race 3, Nos.7,8,2,6,4(1)

Race 4, Nos 6,7,5,8,(3)

Race 5, Nos. 4,9,6,10,(3)

Race 6, Nos. 12,9,11,6,(13)

Race 7, Nos. 6,1,11,4,(5)

Race 8, Nos.14,15,8,4(1)

Race 9, Nos.14,2,7,10,(12)

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Vixen Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 8:30am
* its only 9.30am where i am !!

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sister Dot Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 8:37am
Race 1, Nos., 7,2,5,4,(6)
Race 2, Nos., 5,2,6,3,(7)
Race 3, Nos., 2,7,8,4,(3)
Race 4, Nos., 5,7,8,6,(3)
Race 5, Nos., 3,4,9,10,(6)
Race 6, Nos., 12,1,11,7,(13)
Race 7, Nos., 6,1,11,4,(9)
Race 8, Nos., 4,15,14,2,(11)
Race 9, Nos., 14,2,8,7,(12)
“Where in this wide world can man find nobility without pride, friendship without envy, or beauty without vanity? Here where grace is laced with muscle and strength by gentleness confined”
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote TIGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 8:49am
I'm boxing the entire card
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dizzy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 9:00am
Lol that was quick. All out in the first.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote stayer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 9:00am
All out.
"She's going through a growth phase." - GW
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mayor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 9:03am
Tipping the Card quickly off the table. Shocked

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote TIGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 9:03am
R1 2,4,6,10 - Was run when doing tips, didn't look
R2 2,5,6,7
R3 2,6,7,8
R4 3,6,7,8
R5 4,6,8,9
R6 2,7,9,12
R7 1,6,11,15
R8 4,11,14,15
R9 2,3,12,14
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote TIGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 9:06am
Originally posted by TIGER TIGER wrote:

R1 2,4,6,10 - Was run when doing tips, didn't look
R2 2,5,6,7
R3 2,6,7,8
R4 3,6,7,8
R5 4,6,8,9
R6 2,7,9,12
R7 1,6,11,15
R8 4,11,14,15
R9 2,3,12,14


Oh well out, rules are rules, didn't have tips in on time
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 9:12am
My box of 5 got the First 4 in R1... $4311..   What's the prize.?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote TIGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 9:15am
Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

My box of 5 got the First 4 in R1... $4311..   What's the prize.?


Scan your ticket, collect the cash and go home
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mayor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 10:10am
Good job maccamax, given Mockery started at $18.80 

Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

My box of 5 got the First 4 in R1... $4311..   What's the prize.?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mayor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 10:12am
Yeah, unfortunately can't really accept it. It's a pity because you would have kept us alive.

Originally posted by TIGER TIGER wrote:

Oh well out, rules are rules, didn't have tips in on time
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 11:24am
Originally posted by TIGER TIGER wrote:

Originally posted by TIGER TIGER wrote:

R1 2,4,6,10 - Was run when doing tips, didn't look
R2 2,5,6,7
R3 2,6,7,8
R4 3,6,7,8
R5 4,6,8,9
R6 2,7,9,12
R7 1,6,11,15
R8 4,11,14,15
R9 2,3,12,14


Oh well out, rules are rules, didn't have tips in on time

you can't help lying can you ?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 12:07pm
One would expect Whale not to troll us cripples in front of the Mayor and unsettle members trying to be a part a new style & interesting concept.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote stayer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 12:18pm
Doesn't matter anyway - we'd still all be out by now.

What's the aim and hypothesis of this experiment, Mr Mayor? Will it be a weekly thing?
"She's going through a growth phase." - GW
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Mayor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 12:41pm
If people enjoy it, we can make it a weekly thing?

I was just reading up about Dutch Staking Plans... where you select several runners in a field and try to guarantee a result. I was just curious as to whether, from picking 4 horses in each race, what percentage of winners you would expect to get throughout the day. For example, if you got the winner in 5 of the 9 races, the percentage would be 55%. What would you expect to get?

I thought if I could get a sample of punters and see what sort of average percentage winners they got from 4 selections in each race, it would tell us the approximate chance of this type of staking plan succeeding.

"Dutch Staking or Dutching is a staking strategy used to divide your stake over a number of selections in a market so that a consistent amount is won regardless of which selection wins. This method is commonly used when there are two or more outcomes in an event that a punter wants to back. Horse racing punters often use Dutching when backing multiple runners."



Edited by Mayor - 02 Mar 2019 at 12:46pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bigal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2019 at 1:09pm
01/01/2017 to 02/03/2019
 Race Area       Bets Win Plc   WOut   WRet   WPrf         RACE W%   WPOT
-------------------------------------------------------------
Metropolitan     75091180     130154 115429 -14725         62.7          -11.3
Don't know if this helps Mayor, it's just a snapshot.
I ran the top 4 in the freely available Qld Tab ratings, then dutched them to win $100 at SP for Saturday races only in metro Syd and Melb..
The race win s/rate was pretty good at 62.7% but lost 11.3% at SP.
I believe that is about what you could expect to get from ANY FREE ratings.
ALLAN
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