Victorian ALP Government support now 51.5% would win a close election with L-NP on 48.5%

In Victoria support for the ALP is now at 51.5% compared to the L-NP on 48.5% on a two-party preferred basis according to a special Roy Morgan SMS survey on Victorian voting intention with a cross-section of 1,147 Victorian electors aged 18+ over the last few days.

The two-party preferred support for the ALP has dropped a significant 5.8% points since the 2018 Victorian State Election while L-NP support is up 5.8% points.

Today’s Roy Morgan Poll on Victorian voting intention shows that if a Victorian Election were held today the ALP would be returned with a narrow majority for a third term of Government.

Primary Vote for ALP plunges since 2018 State Election

Primary support for the ALP is now at 37%, down 5.9% points since the 2018 Victorian State Election and now behind the L-NP on 38.5% (up 3.3% points).

Support for the Greens is up slightly to 12% (up 1.3% points) while support for Other Parties has increased to 8.5% (up 3.4% points). A further 4% of Victorians are now supporting Independent candidates, down 2.1% points from the 2018 Victorian State Election.

Two-Party Preferred support splits by Region & Gender

Two clear splits have emerged in Victoria with city-dwellers in Melbourne and women supporting the ALP on a two-party preferred basis while Country Victorians and men are more likely to support the L-NP.

Women clearly favour the ALP on a two-party preferred basis with support at 57% compared to only 43% for the L-NP. In contrast a majority of 53.5% of men support the L-NP compared to 46.5% supporting the ALP.

Melburnians (who comprise the bulk of the population of Victoria) favour the ALP on a two-party preferred basis with support of 53.5% compared to 46.5% for the L-NP while in Country Victoria support for the L-NP is at 55% compared to only 45% for the ALP.

This special Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey was conducted with a Victoria-wide cross-section of 1,147 Victorian electors aged 18+ conducted on Tuesday September 15 – Thursday September 17, 2020.

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the ALP would still be the favourite if a Victorian State Election were held today although support for the L-NP has risen substantially since 2018:

“The Second Wave of COVID-19 in Victoria has led to a tightening between the two major parties with the ALP on 51.5% only narrowly ahead of the L-NP on 48.5% on a two-party preferred basis in mid-September.

“ALP support has dropped substantially since the 2018 Victorian State Election with primary support down nearly 6% points to 37%. This support has flowed to several parties including the Opposition L-NP, up 3.3% points to 38.5%, the Greens, up 1.3% points to 12% and Other Parties up 3.4% points to 8.5%.

“However, the big split that has emerged is between the genders and between Melbourne and Country Victoria. The ALP retains big leads amongst women (57% cf. 43%) and in Melbourne (53.5% cf. 46.5%), but the L-NP is now well ahead with men (53.5% cf. 46.5%) and in Country Victoria (55% cf. 45%).

“As Victoria (hopefully) emerges from the Second Wave of COVID-19 in the next couple of months the big issues will revolve around supporting businesses and re-booting the Victorian economy and providing jobs for the hundreds of thousands of Victorians now looking for new work.

“The next two years presents a huge test for the ALP to rebuild it’s credibility after the devastating impact of the second wave of COVID-19 following mis-steps in the Victorian hotel quarantine program for returned travellers and inadequate contact tracing and testing in Victoria compared to its counterpart in New South Wales.”

Victorian electors were asked: "If a State Election for Victoria were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?"