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Creating your own longshots |
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Brosco
Yearling Joined: 31 Oct 2011 Status: Offline Points: 126 |
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Posted: 29 Jul 2013 at 4:41pm |
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I know many people love the thrill of picking, betting and wining on a longshot. A few years back my computer based selection system gave me a 200/1 winner. Yes ..,. i had a whole $1 ew - but it was still exciting.
The problem is with my selections... i still get a far higher strike rate and ROI with more conventional selections. So while i like the 'lottery' of an occasional high return - i wanted it to be for a small outlay and be profitable - at least as high as my 'standard' picks with Roi. I enjoy a 25-30% strike rate and at level stakes = a 10% return on investment. But there are few 'extra' thrills at that level. Since i rarely have more than 5 or 6 selections on a Saturday ... probably 1 or none one a monday,,,, i now take my daily selections in a parlay (if enough contestants). A week ago on the Saturday i picked up over $500 for $1 combinations. Last Saturday - Just $50 profit - during the week ... win and lose to break even. Its a small outlay to turn shorter price winners into a higher return if you have a reasonable strike rate. The parlay just capitalises on it for a small outlay. good luck and good punting to all |
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James
Champion Joined: 15 Jan 2011 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 7230 |
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I have to say that I like the idea of a parlay with all my selections on a saturday. When I went back and did the numbers I found out I would have made a huge amount of coin just by doubling all my selections every Saturday into each other but there are days when the losses would have been huge as well.
I decided I would just do it when i was at the track during carnival time for a bit of fun but it has definitely played on my mind to give it a go and set aside a separate bank to do so.
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Fiddlesticks
Champion Joined: 31 Dec 2012 Status: Offline Points: 49954 |
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How much is your computer based programme..?
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Panspermia.
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Brosco
Yearling Joined: 31 Oct 2011 Status: Offline Points: 126 |
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Thanks for the reply james.
I agree that losses can also be large. But to me the secret is not in taking doubles ..... too many combinations causing a high cost - I only take doubles if I have just 3 selections for the day. If I have more then 3, I only take trebles and quads - and of course - an all-up. The all-up is the 'longshot' i am waiting for. I hit one of these about every 2 months .... often it is only small and just recovers costs over the period - but occasionally, like last week, I get the one that makes it all worthwhile. remember that the strike rate for a longshot, the run of outs, makes them a long term investment - not a quick way to get high returns. My parlays are only in $1 units, so my investment for the day is really no more than any individual bet - usually less. So a small bet that occasionally gives a huge return is a hell of a thrill.
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Brosco
Yearling Joined: 31 Oct 2011 Status: Offline Points: 126 |
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I assume your reply is tongue-in-cheek and not sarcasm. But to be honest - I have been working on this program for 5 years - maybe 20 hours / week (I am semi-retired). So that means around 5000 hours of my time. A professional programmer wouldn't charge less than about $80 per hour - so its now 'worth' around $400,000. For some strange reason i get the feeling I wont get any offers:) I will just sit back here with my program supplementing my retirement :)
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kavg
Champion Joined: 08 Jun 2009 Status: Offline Points: 3993 |
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Great reply Brosco. That will shut up the naysayers.
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Prejudice is an emotional attachment to ignorance.
DiEM25 for the world. |
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waggamick
Champion Joined: 19 Aug 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 7140 |
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NAY, I SAY! A great reply would be to give us an example ahead of time. Until then this could be a fantasy posted by someone who has forgotten to take their medication. |
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The Dude Abides
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Brosco
Yearling Joined: 31 Oct 2011 Status: Offline Points: 126 |
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I am happy to provide some examples in the future as they arise. I will post them in this thread - but when I do you now have some background as to what I'm trying to achieve. If you have read the above, you will understand that parlays are usually on Saturday and cracking a good one only happens after a couple of months. Hopefully the tips I give will continue on their profitable way.
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Fiddlesticks
Champion Joined: 31 Dec 2012 Status: Offline Points: 49954 |
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I am the longshot king, you will have to go long and hard to out tip me when it comes to bolters BOSCO...
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Panspermia.
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Whale
Champion Joined: 01 Jun 2009 Location: St Kilda Beach Status: Offline Points: 38719 |
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and jealousy, after decades of trying he has not improved his selection skills and resents anyone who has some success, eg witness his derision of Crash, one of the more successful punters on this forum |
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Crash
Champion Joined: 03 Jun 2008 Location: Sydney Status: Offline Points: 22802 |
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1 longshot a year doesn't make you king |
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Fiddlesticks
Champion Joined: 31 Dec 2012 Status: Offline Points: 49954 |
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I think I gave out 2 on Saturday night in the euro flat season thread... |
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Panspermia.
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Fiddlesticks
Champion Joined: 31 Dec 2012 Status: Offline Points: 49954 |
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Panspermia.
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Whale
Champion Joined: 01 Jun 2009 Location: St Kilda Beach Status: Offline Points: 38719 |
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Got to admit you are a gun on European racing, that is why you did so well in The Royal Ascot Comp
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Crash
Champion Joined: 03 Jun 2008 Location: Sydney Status: Offline Points: 22802 |
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Pazman tipped you them |
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Fiddlesticks
Champion Joined: 31 Dec 2012 Status: Offline Points: 49954 |
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LOL...he wishes..
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Panspermia.
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Brosco
Yearling Joined: 31 Oct 2011 Status: Offline Points: 126 |
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I guess you misunderstood me. I was suggesting getting 'longshot returns' by using parlays - turning shorter priced selections into a bigger return.
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Fiddlesticks
Champion Joined: 31 Dec 2012 Status: Offline Points: 49954 |
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all good, knock yourself out.. |
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Panspermia.
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Kincsem
Champion Joined: 30 Jan 2013 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 664 |
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G'day Brosco I'm a fellow computer better but I'm still pretty new to the game with only 12 months put into my system. The learning curve has been incredibly steep and I feel I'm making breakthroughs every week. I remember reading a quote from Bill Bentor who indicated it would take one man 10 years to build a program approaching his own. So you're halfway to becoming a billionaire. Anyway I'd understand if you keep your cards close to your chest but I'll ask anyway, do you have any advise for a beginner like myself? I sure as hell would have a lot to tell myself 12 months ago.
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Kincsem
Champion Joined: 30 Jan 2013 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 664 |
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Also I have found long shots a much less rewarding betting proposition as they are generally over bet in Australia.
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Kincsem
Champion Joined: 30 Jan 2013 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 664 |
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*bettor
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Fiddlesticks
Champion Joined: 31 Dec 2012 Status: Offline Points: 49954 |
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By definition they are long shots because they are LONG priced...can you explain what you mean they are generally over bet...? |
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Panspermia.
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Kincsem
Champion Joined: 30 Jan 2013 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 664 |
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For instance a $100 shot would need to win 1/100 races to break even but they tend to win a lot less than that maybe 1/150 (can't remember the exact stats) while a $2 fave might win say 45% of the time as opposed the 50% required to break even. Anyway long run studies show that if you were betting every fave you'll lose less money in the long term than betting every long shot betting a level stake. For some reason Australian punters over bet the longer odds horses more than other countries. I think it may have something to do with tall poppy syndrome, backing the underdog and the an unfounded disdain for betting odds on.
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Go Flash Go
Champion Joined: 08 Mar 2007 Location: Victoria Status: Offline Points: 10250 |
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Longshots can be a trap. Fact is they don't happen all that often and probablyaren't worth worrying about. Least l don't anymore.
Trainer gets a horse fit and tries to win a few races over the the few runs it's in peak condition or at least collect a decent cheque. That's basically all that happens (easy job isn't it ) l'd rather work on being the owner of a good horse these days - Requires more patience - find it's more fun.
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Brosco
Yearling Joined: 31 Oct 2011 Status: Offline Points: 126 |
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I understand exactly what you mean. Usually with programming you define exactly what you want to achieve before writing any code, but in this case, I found that initial programming efforts would provide me information that I hadn't considered, and so often areas of the program needed to be reworked. Another problem was building the database so that I had history to test my theories. Initially I was downloading form and history from websites that provided the information for free (assuming you know how to extract it for use). My idea was that I would accumulate an extensive database while I was developing my program. the problem here was that websites occasionally change the format of the pages and so the extraction process needed to be reworked. I have subsequently subscribed to a site that has provided several years history plus the fields and form for current races on a daily basis. Btw, are you using a programming language - or are you working with excel (or similar). I am using a Delphi clone and SQLite for the database. SQL is a fantastic tool for developing when you cant be sure of the complete design of the DB as changes can be made on the fly (usually) without reloading the entire db. Anyway, please feel free to message me if you wish to discuss more - I'm not sure if a programming discussion is appropriate for the forum. Regards |
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Kincsem
Champion Joined: 30 Jan 2013 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 664 |
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Brosco I'm just working with excel and even then I started off from a pretty base level. When I started I had no idea how to go about creating a computerised betting system and really it started off as a means to automate what I would do manually. I soon learnt that assumptions I made and theories I had about racing were being challenged or reinforced by the results. The system I've created on excel has reached the point where I'm apprehensive about trying to rebuild it in a more suitable program so I think I'll continue on with excel for now. The only limitations I have are the fact that every race is on a separate spreadsheet and I have to open every spreadsheet to update what I call my the 'masterbook'. I can see that in time this method will become cumbersome as the number of races reaches the hundreds. Apart from that there is nothing I haven't been able to do using excel functions although I suspect I'm probably doing things very inefficiently.
Just another question what KPI's do you have for your system? At the moment i measure results as follows: - average predicted finishing position vs actual finishing position of each runner. - average predicted finishing position vs actual finishing position of first 3 - predicted finishing position vs actual finishing position of winner I then add the 3 together and divide by 3 to come up with a figure. I'm not sure whether this is the ideal way to refine my system but it allows me to get a large sample per race while putting emphasis on the horses that pay. |
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Brosco
Yearling Joined: 31 Oct 2011 Status: Offline Points: 126 |
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Exactly my experience - also explains why after 5 years I am still far from done :)
I am not an expert at Excel, but isn't it possible to divide excel sheets into 'Books' and thus have each days racing in a separate book? This would make looking at 'todays' or 'yesterdays' racing far less cumbersome - but still allow you to do analysis on a volume of history? [QUOTE Just another question what KPI's do you have for your system? At the moment i measure results as follows: - average predicted finishing position vs actual finishing position of each runner. - average predicted finishing position vs actual finishing position of first 3 - predicted finishing position vs actual finishing position of winner I then add the 3 together and divide by 3 to come up with a figure. I'm not sure whether this is the ideal way to refine my system but it allows me to get a large sample per race while putting emphasis on the horses that pay. [/QUOTE] KPI? not sure what you mean. Over 5 years I have tested many ratings systems. Some useless, some great (but died after a period of time) and my current one seeming to give a consistent ... but smaller return than by other systems on a good patch. I tried combining my different systems with the idea that on a 'consensus' basis the strike rate goes up - unfortunately not true. Just less bets - and strike rate the same. I am not sure how easy this is with Excel.... but if you can, i suggest you do some analysis of where your strike rate is - for example - can you test? : Maidens (no bet) Class of Race (I have a website that attempts to put class sequence level on each class - i will try to find it if it would be helpful - but Class 1 is a no-no for me Track condition Sex (chgfm) Track (I have significantly more success at some tracks - depending on my selection process) Distance range Number of first starters (2 - i prefer none) Field size (16 is about maximum to me ) etc etc Basically you will need to test filters like this and see where your results come from. But be VERY CAREFUL - finding filters that work on history dont necessarily work in the future.... and if you have substantial history, a change in the stats wont show immediately - you will still think its working when there is a slight downturn..... when really your results are being propped up by a substantial volume of previous bets. Basically - it becomes an example of backfitting when you dont even realise you are doing it. All these filterss play a role (stating the blooming obvious) - BUT your rating system can have different results for each of these filters. Hope this is helpful
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Kincsem
Champion Joined: 30 Jan 2013 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 664 |
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I'm time poor so only look at 4-5 races a week and maybe up to 8-10 once the spring comes round. Since making significant changes to my system I've only got about 65 races through the system so a filter looking at strike rates for race types would return unreliable results. However from the small sample I have noticed that since the tracks have gotten softer in the second half of my sample my KPI's and monetary results have worsened. Because I'm doing so few races a week I'm picky and only do races with quality horses and preferably fields of less than 16 but I'm not sure whether this improves my results.
In regard to my KPI's, I find that concentrating on system accuracy is more important than profit with such a small sample. It's like a footy team purely focusing on method (key statistics that correlate with winning) as opposed to the result (win or loss). I'll give a simplified example of my KPI: 1st Pharlap (predicted to come 1st) = 0 2nd Sunline (predicted to come 5th) = 3 3rd Northerly (predicted to come 2nd) = 1 4th Lohnro (predicted to come 3rd) = 1 5th Saintly (predicted to come 4th) = 1 So for field ave is 6/5 = 1.2 position from predicted per horse Top 3 ave is 4/3 = 1.33 1st place = 0 So my accuracy rating for that race is (1.2 + 1.33 + 0)/3 = 0.843 This lower the number the better I've predicted the race result. I think my best result over the past 65 races was in a nine horse field where I predicted the finishing order correctly except for 8th and 9th which I both got mixed up. I've also got a number of profit indicators but I've found I can manipulate these to create huge profits retrospectively but that creates counter-intuitive factors which are simply trying to fit past results with poor predictive qualities. Anyway I get the feeling we are both using computers system differently which is a good thing. |
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Kincsem
Champion Joined: 30 Jan 2013 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 664 |
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"Basically you will need to test filters like this and see where your
results come from. But be VERY CAREFUL - finding filters that work on
history dont necessarily work in the future.... and if you have
substantial history, a change in the stats wont show immediately - you
will still think its working when there is a slight downturn..... when
really your results are being propped up by a substantial volume of
previous bets. Basically - it becomes an example of backfitting when
you dont even realise you are doing it."
My hope is that any coincidental factors will disappear over a large sample of races and this is partially why I look at the finishing position of every horse in the race to create a large sample. Also any nonsensical factors are turned to zero until the sample is large enough that they start behaving logically. For instance i discovered that inversing pace factors were creating huge profits but could not logically support the result. My theory at the moment with such anomalies is that either the sample is to small and it is a coincidence or that punters are overreacting to such a factor. So if a race looks likely to be run fast people get off the front runners and they become under bet to the point that they are actually value bets. Another factor that I think could be similar are trainers which I've turned down to zero weighting as they seem to have no influence beyond what other factors are contributing. |
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Kincsem
Champion Joined: 30 Jan 2013 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 664 |
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I just realised I've diverted from the topic, apologies. Back to longshots....
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