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Caulfield Cup 2023
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Progold View Drop Down
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Joined: 20 Feb 2007
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Points: 3205 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Progold Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Caulfield Cup 2023
    Posted: 21 Oct 2023 at 12:41pm
My dosages for the Caulfield Cup field. I have a few additions to the list since the last one was published, but one day in the not too distant future I will look at seeing what we can do about updated the list of chefs-de-race to ensure that it is current.

Over the last decade, the majority of winners have had a DI between 1.20 and 1.50 with a couple in the 1.90 range. I would suspect that the two favourites look well suited, Classic ratings tend to be very important in the past winners with most between 15 and 22 individual ratings if that means anything. The most interesting thing is that the entire field has dosage profiles largely in the range that we would expect for the race. If you are looking for a roughie to put in multiples, Right You Are might be one to throw in.

1

GOLD TRIP (FR)

[0.65/1.96]

[12-5-11-5-1]

2

WITHOUT A FIGHT (IRE)

[0.09/1.06]

[2-9-10-13-0]

3

BREAKUP (JPN)

[-0.21/0.56]

[1-0-8-5-1]

4

MONTEFILIA

[-0.13/0.68]

[1-1-9-5-0]

5

FRANCESCO GUARDI (IRE)

[0.25/1.40]

[3-10-16-7-0]

6

WEST WIND BLOWS (IRE)

[0.36/1.47]

[7-7-22-6-0]

7

NONCONFORMIST

[0.60/3.00]

[4-8-6-0-2]

8

SOULCOMBE (GB)

[-0.07/0.75]

[2-3-14-9-0]

9

DUKE DE SESSA (IRE)

[0.21/1.62]

[0-11-25-1-1]

10

HOO YA MAL (GB)

[0.27/1.17]

[5-3-12-6-0]

11

RIGHT YOU ARE

[0.13/1.13]

[4-5-16-5-2]

12

EMISSARY (GB)

[0.05/1.00]

[3-3-10-4-2]

13

GOLDMAN (NZ)

[-0.08/0.85]

[4-3-21-6-4]

14

OKITA SOUSHI (IRE)

[0.23/1.09]

[9-5-22-12-0]

15

FAME

[0.64/2.27]

[11-6-16-1-2]

16

BOIS D’ARGENT (GB)

[0.46/2.43]

[2-23-18-5-0]

17

SPIRIT RIDGE (GB)

[0.16/0.94]

[6-0-19-7-0]

18

VALIANT KING (GB)

[0.69/2.56]

[4-4-7-1-0]

19e

UNITED NATIONS (IRE)

[-0.02/0.71]

[6-1-21-14-0]

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Gay3 View Drop Down
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Joined: 19 Feb 2007
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Points: 51042 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Nov 2023 at 8:39pm
I note the 13 is the 2nd highest behind United Nations but what does it signify as I've forgotten, is it Stamina?


WITHOUT A FIGHT (IRE)

[0.09/1.06]

[2-9-10-13-0]
The funniest thing about this particular signature is that by the time you realise it doesn't say anything, it's too late to stop reading it.
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Grey Affair View Drop Down
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Points: 2788 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Grey Affair Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Nov 2023 at 9:46pm
Brilliant - Intermediate - Classic - Solid - Professional
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djebel View Drop Down
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Points: 53617 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Nov 2023 at 9:53pm
Left wing is brilliant - Nobody likes them.

Right wing is stoute - Nobody likes them.

Middle is perfect - everybody should aspire.
reductio ad absurdum
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Take2 View Drop Down
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Points: 4703 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Take2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Nov 2023 at 6:21pm
On going back and seeing it was the caulfield cup you were referring progold, it was a pretty good effort 
my personal opinion is that if there is one place in the world where romans dosage can dish up the goods its  melb in the spring , whilst i have moved away from dosage in the past 7 or so years, i still use the classic points to confirm the quality of a pedigree, this is after i first started dabbling with dosage and  have been updating my CDR since PC's first came out when programs were made available that could calculate all this stuff, (still update)  however i find that the dosages are open to ones manipulation in changing the categories, BICSP of "Chefs"  or potential "chefs" to whatever one's fancy is to justify the end to a means,
In the Melb Cup Vauban (a hurdler, the media hyped up into being favourite has a dosage of 0.87) and had little to no chance in reality of winning the cup, despite his figures, He was the first Horse i omitted, BUT without a Fight flew the flag with his 0.78) 
As i have always said, dosage is a tool, and one of many
change is simply a destination on a journey reached by taking the first step (i said that) lol

www.3rdmillenniumbloodstock.com.au
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Progold View Drop Down
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Points: 3205 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Progold Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Nov 2023 at 6:53pm
Thanks Take 2.
I still find dosage the most useful tool in the arsenal but it seems to be out of fashion again. Not the first time in the 100 plus year history, and won't be the last. Many have always seen it as being something it isn't, but for me it helps to understand the thoroughbred.
In terms of what we can learn from dosage, your comment about the Melbourne Cup is a point in question. Over the past decade it seems that the profile of winners has been changing. It relates to the influx of European bred horses. Clearly these now dominate staying races in Australia and the very nature of our breed has changed once again. 
I would be interested to see your latest CDR list. I find that with modern crop sizes of stallions, it is tempting to try and classify chefs too early. We still need to look at what a stallion's daughters do to fully understand the long term impact that a stallion will have. Perhaps patience is a trait that the thoroughbred industry still lacks as Bart Cummings once so eloquently claimed. 
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