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Betting Opportunity for bigger punters |
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Whale
Champion Joined: 01 Jun 2009 Location: St Kilda Beach Status: Offline Points: 38719 |
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No the link has been posted many times. Continue with your insults on a discussion forum Once again, keep up, this was posted after the original one how about this then.........
ANYONE that gives a donation of $250 to the cancer council after I post this can get my bets for lets say the 1st 4 months of the year!! the receipt of the donation needs to be verified b4 receiving the bets. RECEIVING ONGOING BETS WOULD BE SUBJECT TO A NEW DONATION. I DONT NEED THE MONEY..... the CANCER COUNCIL DOES!!!! ALLAN |
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Whale
Champion Joined: 01 Jun 2009 Location: St Kilda Beach Status: Offline Points: 38719 |
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whatever you say Macca, not interested
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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Cut the crap like ( a nark ). Alleged old posts ( beat you up , which is a lie )and I'll be as pleasant as we have been lately. In reference to changing the original post ( I did a great job ) ------------------ Just look for the favoured last start winners ( or near to )and a few "golden rules " like top Jock ( Pike is a gem ) They all rate on top with the numbers men . Price is the key if your fortunate to score the overs . BTW the example of 8/12/18 was posted very late in the day 4.30PM. Allan may mean well , that's not in dispute and we all get deluded on the tip . WE can't expect members to not have opinions , especially when it is big money and financial gain involved. SP, over time measures a tipsters ability. |
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bigal
Champion Joined: 29 Jan 2011 Status: Offline Points: 9802 |
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thanks for keeping the discussion alive guys........
BUT I have 2 people who have decided to take the bit between the teeth and run with it. Another 2 that are looking into the results etc. before making a decision. Everyone can make up their own minds. IS IT GOOD? IS IT BAD? IS IT GENUINE? CAN HE MAKE A PROFIT GOING FORWARD? The history is ONE thing betting live is another. I have posted what would have to be a thousand bets on here over time...AND I AM 100% SURE the result on ALL the posted bets would result in a lovely overall PROFIT....and YES the prices are not "manufactured", they are prices that I have taken at the time the price was available. It could have been on a Wednesday night for a Saturday meeting, Could have been that morning or simply made at BOB or what ever would be the best possible outcome for my money. I made an attempt to help "anyone" back a winner and to help a charity at the same time. So take it for what it is..... an OFFER......AND NO ONE HAS TO ACCEPT IT. Everyone can make their own decisions. ALLAN |
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Whale
Champion Joined: 01 Jun 2009 Location: St Kilda Beach Status: Offline Points: 38719 |
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that was my purpose
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Whale
Champion Joined: 01 Jun 2009 Location: St Kilda Beach Status: Offline Points: 38719 |
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by the way charitable donations are tax deductible, so $250 is only $175 or less depending on you marginal tax rate
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bigal
Champion Joined: 29 Jan 2011 Status: Offline Points: 9802 |
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YOU WROTE: BTW the example of 8/12/18 was posted very late in the day 4.30PM. Allan may mean well , that's not in dispute and we all get deluded on the tip . WE can't expect members to not have opinions , especially when it is big money and financial gain involved. SP, over time measures a tipsters ability. UM,what time it was posted has WHAT do do with it?? OR did you just "glance" at the bets again?. Did you happen to notice that from when I posted the message, that the bets from then on finished in a small profit but a PROFIT non the less. IF someone had taken the price in the morning for AFRICAN QUEEN which I did........$2-60 at Neds for $500 and then $2-50 for $100 at Bet365, the result looks a lot better for what was posted!!. Anyone that takes this up will be advised beforehand what I will be doing with MY betting. ALLAN
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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----------------------- This was in print some 50 years ago --- originally and is a good base to explore. There are many different ways to go about the challenge of making a profit as a punter. The underlying objective however is universal: to back horses that are 'overs' in the betting market commensurate to their real winning chances. This, of course, is otherwise known as “getting value”. Achieving that objective doesn’t always need to involve countless hours of form study and price assessment of every horse in a race. Very few punters have the time or expertise to do that effectively. An alternative approach however is to understand where profit making opportunities exist in the betting market, based on the characteristics of individual horses. In other words, you are focused on finding horses with certain traits that history says are underestimated by the betting market. These horses can therefore help to provide the foundation of a good value bet. In this article we explore this concept further by taking a look at four value angles around last-start winners contesting metropolitan races (within the same preparation i.e. not first-up). 1. Last-start winners on the quick back-up This was a favourite tipping strategy of legendary race caller Ian Craig and while some mocked him for it, the facts suggest he was well and truly onto something. Last-start winners (from any track), backing up in a metropolitan race within 1 to 7 days: Last-start winners (from any track), backing up in a metropolitan race within 1 to 7 days: STARTING PRICE BETS WINS SR% POT% All 771 151 19.6% +7.7% Up to $10 560 140 25% +6.9% Based on just over the last 3 years of racing from 1/1/2014 to 22/1/2017. There are not a massive number of bets with just 771 in 3 years, but the overall results show that these horses have been significantly underestimated by the market and are well and truly worthy of consideration as betting prospects. . Last-start on-pace winners Horses with early speed have a tactical advantage in racing and generally make for better betting propositions. We see that concept demonstrated when we isolate last-start winners that won their race after showing the early speed to settle up on the lead, either first or second in the run: STARTING PRICE BETS WINS SR% POT% All 6,493 1,116 17.2% +2.1% Up to $10 4,566 1,041 22.8% +3.4% Based on just over the last 3 years of racing from 1/1/2014 to 22/1/2017. A +3.4% POT for horses up to $10 SP might not seem too significant, but it’s outstanding for a single factor, especially when you consider the market average for all horses up to $10 SP is -7%. 3. Debut winners repeating at their next start Horses that win on debut have a much better than average record of repeating next start and provide an excellent betting return: STARTING PRICE BETS WINS SR% POT% All 890 188 21.1% +11.8% Up to $10 630 178 28.3% +15.1% . Last-start winners by trainer When a horse wins, the trainer has the responsibility of keeping that horse in peak mental/physical condition and in particular, placing that horse in the right race to win again. The record of trainers at getting their last-start winners to repeat is something I’ve routinely kept tabs on over the years as a measure of their performance and betting reliability Wrapping up If you are short on time and/or knowledge about the finer details of racing form, then last-start winners are a great starting point to help find good bets for any race day. You don’t necessarily need to spend hours doing the form. The average betting return for all last-start winners is significantly better than any other finish position and as you can see from the data above, there are some great angles to look for that can help you to efficiently identify profitable bets. I don’t recommend blindly backing all horses that meet these rules, but you can certainly use them as a starting point for your bets and look to eliminate those with risk factors that are likely to see them perform worse than the average (e.g. those that are likely to settle well back in the field.) This type of approach can help to provide good structure, clarity and consistency around your selection process and give you an excellent chance of making a decent profit. ( especially on fancied runners with the variables in their favour.) |
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bigal
Champion Joined: 29 Jan 2011 Status: Offline Points: 9802 |
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you do????? well please let me know the bets for tomorrow and Saturday....
or even have a go at what I bet on today??? allan
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bigal
Champion Joined: 29 Jan 2011 Status: Offline Points: 9802 |
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Based on just over the last 3 years of racing from 1/1/2014 to 22/1/2017. UMM, WHAT HAPPENED TO MOST OF 2017 AND ALL OF 2018?? ARE PART OF THE LAST 3 YEARS OR NOT?
allan
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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bigal
Champion Joined: 29 Jan 2011 Status: Offline Points: 9802 |
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TAHDAHHHHHH.... wrong!! not a bet today!! you can keep going today...but you wont find any...... find me some for tomorrow?? allan
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ExceedAndExcel
Champion Joined: 20 Dec 2008 Status: Offline Points: 16226 |
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Bigal is one of the few here who have provided a history of profitable selections. I’m not looking for something like this at the current time but if I were I’d have no issues with his offer at all.
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bigal
Champion Joined: 29 Jan 2011 Status: Offline Points: 9802 |
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thanks for the comment E and E...as I said earlier every ones BIG enough to make their own decisions...... ALLAN
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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Not hard Al but on long time past performance you will be on last start winners, fav or near to . or the occasional 2nd placed lead up . On 8/12 I just saw 8, before i knocked up. 6 were last start winners , 2 were coming off 2nd 's . All Favs as far as I can see. Please don't claim Arcadia Queen, as all of Australia backed it with Pike up. Even TOM. Good luck in whatever you do and your followers of course . I hope they are as capable of getting the overs as you do with multiple Family accounts. ( getting overs is the key, Not the horses.) |
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bigal
Champion Joined: 29 Jan 2011 Status: Offline Points: 9802 |
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Not hard Al but on long time past performance you will be on last start winners, fav or near to (NOT ALL) . or the occasional 2nd placed lead up (WRONG!!) On 8/12 I just saw 8, before i knocked up. 6 were last start winners , 2 were coming off 2nd 's . All Favs as far as I can see. (completely WRONG LONG TERM) Please don't claim Arcadia Queen, as all of Australia backed it with Pike up. Even TOM. (I can claim it, MY systems brought it up 4 times!!!!) and I can claim $2-58 for the horse!! Good luck in whatever you do and your followers of course . I hope they are as capable of getting the overs as you do with multiple Family accounts (WRONG!! I HAVE 15 ACCOUNTS MO HAS 3!! OTHER FAMILY EXCEPT MY SON ZERO!!). ( getting overs is the key, Not the horses.) very wrong UNLESS you are a value better...I am not.!!![/QUOTE] you think you have it....... YOU ARE NO WHERE NEAR IT!!!! if you are tell me my bets for Saturday at this point in time!!!! allan
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Whale
Champion Joined: 01 Jun 2009 Location: St Kilda Beach Status: Offline Points: 38719 |
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Macca was wrong Strange how he wants to rain on your parade. If his systems are so good he should start a betting thread, 0 % he will be a successful as you r are Al
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oneonesit
Champion Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Offline Points: 36892 |
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He wouldn’t be the first on here to do that would he Whale ? Poor old Redemption gets stick from you every time she puts up her well thought out betting systems. Just cough up the 5k & put your money where your mouth is - you can find a lazy 5k I assume !
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oneonesit
Champion Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Offline Points: 36892 |
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bigal
Champion Joined: 29 Jan 2011 Status: Offline Points: 9802 |
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WHAT ? since when is ANYTHING in this game easy!!. ALLAN
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oneonesit
Champion Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Offline Points: 36892 |
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Pazman
Champion Joined: 08 Oct 2008 Status: Offline Points: 11753 |
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Family should stop smoking and drinking gelati. |
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bigal
Champion Joined: 29 Jan 2011 Status: Offline Points: 9802 |
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YOU ARE A DISGUSTING INDIVIDUAL
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Whale
Champion Joined: 01 Jun 2009 Location: St Kilda Beach Status: Offline Points: 38719 |
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You don't have to try to prove you are obnoxious oneone, we are well aware. And your provocations are a bit ps poor these days, I guess too many corn chips and Cokes makes you sluggish. I can raise $5000 , pocket money, but as I posted previously : I will not be involved, I don't bet , and when I did I liked the thrill of big odds and the pain of losing 11 days to Xmas
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ExceedAndExcel
Champion Joined: 20 Dec 2008 Status: Offline Points: 16226 |
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Not adverse at all. Too many other things on at the moment including my own plays to have time for this though. |
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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The balls in the scrum it would appear.
Actually I would have voted E&E the as the successful gambler , with his trading skills and documented evidence of those methods at times. Good to have some opinions on the subject and surprised to know there are others on here with 15 & 3 accounts to match the tipster & need someone to let them know when Winx is a goer. |
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oneonesit
Champion Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Offline Points: 36892 |
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Whale
Champion Joined: 01 Jun 2009 Location: St Kilda Beach Status: Offline Points: 38719 |
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ALLAN Family should stop smoking and drinking gelati.[/QUOTE] YOU ARE A DISGUSTING INDIVIDUAL [/QUOTE]
gone, lasted longer than I thought
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Gay3
Moderator Group Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Location: Miners Rest Status: Offline Points: 51818 |
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I've left the above highly offensive comments for all to see why this person is on the banned list. However if Allan or anyone else prefers it hidden, please let me know.
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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
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oneonesit
Champion Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Offline Points: 36892 |
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Al I know you are a good form analyst & I don't doubt your sincerity in wanting to support a worthy charity like the Cancer Council. However, the reality is you have as much chance maximising the amount you donate if you punt by yourself vs a team of yourself + others. You purely need to increase your own investment if you do it by yourself to that amount that the team would be investing in total. So the only difference between the two is that you decrease your own exposure in the team approach if your system does not turn a profit. You also increase your profits if it does.
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