2023 Cycling Season

GC Tour Contender- Ben O'Connor has finished 4th in the TDF yellow jersey comp and he is consistent enough to once again push for a top 5 spot. I actually think the route suits him this year and I am looking forward to the Australian 2023 tilt.

One day classic contenders- O'Connor is similar to Valverde he can challenge on a course which has a couple of tough climbs. Obviously Greg Van Avermaet is a contender having already won and been competitive in the past. Will target the home classics in Belgium.

   

Stage wins- If O'Connor has a bad early TDF, he can switch to an attack at the KOM polka dot jersey. Not having the pedigree of a few others if he can recover he could slip into mountain stage breakaways. Italian sprinter Andrea Vandrame, is a good solid sprinter but he lacks a lead out train so he will need to come up with a strategy to link in behind an opposing teams train. Aurelien Paret Peintre can get himself into a breakaway and he can attack from that break and hang on for a stage win.

Jerseys- As stated above if he has a bad few early days O'Connor can switch to target the KOM. Other than that no jersey contenders here.

Top 9 Squad Members- 45/90.

Felix Gall = 4, Dorian Godon = 4, Ben O'Connor = 8, Aurelien Paret Peintre = 6, Micheal Schar = 5, Greg Van Avermaet = 7, Oliver Naesen = 4, Clement Berthet = 3, Geoffrey Bouchard = 4.    

GC Tour Contender- No major GC contenders but Alexey Lutschenko is capable of finishing 6th to 12th.

One day classic- Not much happening here. Luis Leon Sanchez has been an awesome one day classic rider but at 39 he may be just behind winning one, however he might have one last gasp challenge in his body.

Stage wins- Mark Cavendish is past his best, his days of challenging for the green jersey are long gone, but he showed last season he can pull a couple of good efforts out to remind everyone how talented he was. Alexey Lutschenko is a very good climber and if he feels good I can see him getting into a mountain stage breakaway and hanging on from the GC contenders.

Jersey- Last seasons efforts showed that Lutschenko could be a KOM contender.

Top 9 Squad Members - 38/90.

Joe Dombrowski = 5, Fabio Fellini = 5, Luis Leon Sanchez = 5, Alexey Lutschenko = 7, Mark Cavendish = 6, Simone Velasco = 3, Harold Tejado = 3, Martin Laas = 2, Yevgeny Fedorov = 2.

Team Preview- It is a worry when your two headline riders are a 39 year old puncheur and a 37 year old sprinter. Alexey Lutschenko is a very good climber and if he chose to target the KOM he could win it. I can see him doing well in one of the 1 week multi stage events such as Tirreno Adriatico or Tour De Suisse etc.  

GC Tour Contenders- Obviously Jai Hindley being the defending Giro winner he is a contender, however he has been nominated for the Tour De France. That does not mean he is definitely not riding in Italy in May but it is unlikely. This team do have a very good young, future GC contender in Aleksander Vlasov. 

One day classics- This team is not known for hunting one day classic wins, but guys like Sam Bennett and Bob Jungels could get into a break and take their opportunity.

Stage wins- As well as both Hindley and Vlasov who will target the GC jersey, there are about four riders who could seek a stage win. Sergio Higuita, is a good climber from Colombia. Patrick Konrad likes nothing more than getting into the right break away. Danny Van Poppel does not have the topline speed of the pure sprinters but he is an intelligent rider who can snag a sprint stage win. If the youngster has a bad start to the Giro he can also go after a stage to salvage something from the Giro.

Jersey- Sam Bennett has shown that he can be a KOM contender. Danny Van Poppel is good enough to accumulate points in the green jersey, but to win it he needs to win three or four stages being a pure sprinter.

Top 9 Squad Riders - 56/90 

Jai Hindley = 10, Sam Bennett = 8, Aleksander Vlasov = 6, Danny Van Poppel = 7, Sergio Higuita = 6, Bob Jungels = 5, Patrick Conrad = 5, Emmanuel Buchmann = 5, Jordi Meeus = 4.

Team Preview- This team has a lot of upside. Jai Hindley is obviously a major contender having won the Giro last year. Aleksander Vlasov is the young rider coming through who has the most excitement around him. Not yet a GC contender but he is showing all the signs from a young rider who will hit his peak at 27, 28, 29. Guys like Sam Bennett, Patrick Conrad and Bob Jungles are all contenders for wins during the season while Danny Van Poppel may not be quite as talented as van Der Poel or Aliphillippe but he can be there to take advantage if one of those guys faulters.

GC Tour Contender- Richard Carapaz is clearly the protected rider for this team. He has finished on the podium at all three grand tours, and has won the Giro. His last 3 seasons have been sensational which included Olympic Road race glory in Tokyo, 3 stage wins at the Vuelta and also the KOM at the Vuelta last season. He is a genuine podium contender! Last season saw one of my favorites Esteban Chavez show signs he was getting somewhere near his best. 3rd at the start of the season in his national road race title race, and his Tour of Norway and Criterium Du Dauphine efforts were good. By the time he got to the Vuelta he was done, but I see he might be the main rider at the Giro. 

One day classics- No out and out genuine hopes here but riders like Simon Carr, Magnus Cort and Alberto Bettiol have shown talent to at least be top ten hopes. 

Stage wins- This team has enough talent that they should be expecting every rider to take an opportunity for a stage win. Chavez, Carapaz, Uran, Simon Carr are all capable of securing a mountain stage win. Magnus Cort is good for a break away opportunity while the team is expecting big things from youngster Andrea Piccolo. 

Jerseys- Carapaz and Chavez are contenders for the KOM if given the opportunity. Not saying he can win but if he has a good race and others do not Magnus Cort is the type of rider who can accumulate points consistently to finish top 3 in the green jersey competition.

Top 9 Squad Riders - 55/90.

Richard Carapaz = 10, Esteban Chavez = 7, Rigoberto Uran = 6, Simon Carr = 6, Andrey Amador = 6, Magnus Cort = 6, Andrea Piccolo = 5, Albert Bettiol = 5, Hugh Carthy = 4.

Team Preview- While the grand tours are a target, they have enough talent to target one day classics, and 1 week multi stage events as well. I can see this team being a team who can have success all season long. 

GC Tour Contenders- The obvious main protected rider is Gerraint Thomas who still has the ability to podium, but the Giro might be his best chance. The other option is if Egan Bernal has fully recovered from his horrendous crash which was life threatening for a few days. He had a very light 2022 and I know he will not be back to his best 2021 form but if he has his power back he is one of the best in the peloton.

One day classics- If Daniel Martinez can recapture his 2022 spring form he could surprise. Other than that Kwiatkowski and Pidcock are riders that seem to be aiming at the spring classics. 

Stage wins- Castroviejo is a good time trial rider but that has not usually transferred to the grand tours. Obviously most of the attention in the grand tours is with Thomas but most selected riders can attack a stage win. Elia Viviani is a genuine sprint stage contender and Martinez, Geoghegan Hart and Kwiatkowski can score a stage victory.

Jerseys- I do not think this team have any genuine contenders to win a jersey but they do have top five contenders in all jerseys.

Top 9 Squad Riders - 55/90.

Gerraint Thomas = 10, Egan Bernal = 7, Tao Geoghegan Hart = 5, Micheal Kwiatkowski = 5, Daniel Martinez = 8, Elia Viviani = 6, Carlos Rodriguez = 6, Thomas Pidcock = 5, Pavel Sivakov = 3.   

Team Preview- This team is not as dominant as the Wiggins/Froome years, but they have most bases covered. Thomas and Bernal have the talent to finish on a podium. If Bernal can do that it would be one of the best comebacks in sporting history. Riders like Martinez and Kwiatkowski can give the team stage and one day classic victories. The team have two of the most promising riders in the peloton in Thomas Pidcock and Carlos Rodriguez. Young Rodriguez could be the inheriter of the Spanish leading rider in the peloton. In his first grand tour in last years Vuelta he finished in the top 20 on 13 out of 21 stages. he showed in his two time trials that he is very good in that discipline and had four top ten finishes in mountain stages. He finished seventh in the GC competition and he looks like a future contender, if not this eyar then in the very near future. Exciting times ahead!

GC Tour Contenders- The two riders who have done well in the past in Chris Froome and Jakob Fuglsang are past their GC winning days.

One day classics- There are three main hopes. South African Daryl Impey, Simon Clarke and Tom Van Asbroeck are all strong riders who can get into the right attack and take their opportunity. 

Stage wins- There are several hopes for a stage win in this team. Fuglsang, Micheal Woods and Nick Schultz are all capable of winning a mountain stage or in a breakaway. Giacomo Nizzolo is a good sprinter on his day and he can challenge for a early sprint stage victory obviously he will be motivated for the Giro.

Jerseys- There are no riders who can consistently get points to challenge for the jerseys. If he decided to target the KOM Fuglsang could finish top five.

Top 9 Squad Riders - 48/90

Simon Clarke = 8, Chris Froome = 4, Giacomo Nizzolo = 5, Micheal Woods = 6, Nick Schultz = 7, Jakob Fuglsang = 5, Rick Zabel = 3, Reto Hollenstein = 4, Daryl Impey = 6.  

Team Preview- While Froome and Fuglsanf gain all the spotlight Woods, Schultz and Nizzolo are genuine stage winners who can be hopes in the one day classics if the races pan out for them. Dary Impey is a top quality rider in the Stuart O'Grady, Jens Voight mould and he is a genuine hope for a stage win.

I will take the easy out & comment on your analysis team by team. Just another point of view that may help form a combined opinion. 

I will attempt to preview the major Classics & the three Grand Tours (stage by stage)

Bouchard has started the season in good form & is always a chance in a big mountain stage in a breakaway. Possible KOM contender as well.

GC Tour Contender- Simon Yates is the protected rider and if he can get a little support in the mountains he is a genuine top 10 contender.

One day classics- Micheal Matthews is a genuine spring classic contender. Zdenek Stybar has shown his ability in the one day classic and he can challenge if conditions suit.

Stage wins- Dylan Groenwegen has already won multiple stages and he will try again as he always does. Lucas Hamilton can get into one of the breakaways if allowed to do so. Micheal Matthews is always good for an effort to chance his hand. Matteo Sobrero is an attacker a puncheur who his team must love because he always gets the sponsors name on the tv screens through his breakaway efforts. He has won a stage last year so again he can convert one of his opportunities.

Jerseys- Micheal Matthews fits the bill of a modern green jersey winner and since his TDF win in the points classification in 2017, he has finished top ten many time. Van Aert and Alaphilippe are probably more talented but Matthews can work and scheme his way into contention.

Top 9 Squad Riders - 47/90.

Simon Yates = 9, Alessandro DeMarchi = 4, Dylan Groenewegen = 6, Lucas Hamilton = 5, Micheal Matthews = 8, Zdenek Stybar = 4, Matteo Sobrero = 4, Lukas Postleberger = 3, Luke Durbridge = 4.

Team Preview- The Australian registered team has two targets for the grand tours. Simon Yates can finish top five in the GC classification if everything goes right for him including good time trials. Micheal Matthews is in the Van Aert, Alaphilippe, Gilbert, Cancellara mould who can win points in sprint stages as well as mountain stages as well. There are also stage win targets and also expectations for the one day classics.

GC Tour Contenders- No doubt about the main rider here, one Tadej Pogacar. Contender in all categories.

One day classics- Not sure here. Judging by the selection for the classics I am not expecting much from this team in the classics. Judging by the selections I would give Tim Wellens a hope as he loves the Ardennes classics of the Liege Bastogne Liege, Fleche Wallone, Paris Roubaix and Amstel Gold. He has also finished top ten at the Strade Bianche numerous times. 

Stage wins- If Pogacar was not the main aim for the tours this team would have several stage winning riders. Riders like Yates, Majka, Wellens, Soler and Bennett are all previous stage winners and if they were not riding to protect the GC standing of Pogacar they could win stages again. 

Jerseys- Again if the main man was not there this would be a target. Guys like Yates, Soler and Majka could challenge for the KOM. With him being selected for the Giro Australia's Jay Vine can challenge for a KOM jersey.

Top 9 Squad Riders - 59/90.

Tadej Pogacar = 10, Matteo trentin = 7, Marc Soler = 6, Diego Ulissi = 4, Adam Yates = 8, Jay Vine = 6, Brandon McNulty = 4, Rafal Majka = 6, George Bennett = 8.

Team Preview- Obviously this teams season revolves around Pogacar as he is a great all round rider. Having said that if something happens and his chances are gone, there is plenty to look forward to. Yates, Soler and Trentin are all stage hopes. Bennett can also grab stages if allowed while Jay Vine can challenge for a KOM in the Giro with no Pogacar in the team. Plenty of options for wis all season.

MVP & WVA are so dominant in the one day format. They are just so balanced with no weaknesses. Realistically it is those 2 plus maybe Alaphilippe & maybe the Pog with few other real chances. Their biggest danger is paying too much attention to each other & allowing a move that not even their abilities can overcome.

In the 3 big GC's its not all that different - & i will refer mainly to TDF chances here. Really is a 2 horse race with The Pog & Vinnegaard. Roglic will be kept for the Giro / Vuelta i think & should dominate them - he just cant match the other two in one or two of the big days of the TDF - &  that's all it takes. Cant see the Thomas's , Yates , Landas, Superman et al being any closer to those 3 overall in the GC's than the past few years. I take your point re Mas - he doesn't have to improve much to be a danger. Obviously Remco is the other one we need to throw in. He is being groomed for the TDF next year & will probably be Roglic main dander in the Giro. He is also a magnificent talent - just not 100% sure he wont give up some time on a big mountain stage. The game is relentless. He is $2.20 in the Giro - so a lot of people think he will handle it. Probably on his ability in time trialling to get his time (mind you Roglic is no slouch there either) & then be able to maintain it

So this means within a week or so the writing will be on the wall as to GC outcomes in pretty well all the Tours - allowing exciting breakaway opportunities to Teams hungry to get a result. The thing is - The Pogs team UAE & even Roglic / Vinegaard Jumbo never want to give a stage up. They always want to control the break & rack up stage wins as well. Greedy buggers. Both teams are so strong they start setting up stage wins for the others to reward their domestique work. 

Also Voyager i signed up to GCN+ last year - $70 / year. Just re-subscribed. Gives you pretty well all the Classics & other Tours including the big 3. Sometimes live cross half way through - & some geo restrictions in place (usually when its on SBS - so no issue). I often watch it the next day as if it is live - works well. So all races available on demand. Also some good previews. Well run program.